Adaptation to Climate Change in the Kura-Aras River Basin River Basin Snapshot Draft for Discussion September 2010 Adaptation to Climate Change in the Kura-Aras River Basin Acknowledgements KfW Entwicklungsbank would like to thank the author Martin Kerres for writing the report as well as Dr. Manuel Schiffler for initiating and supervising the basin snapshots. This report would not have been possible without the financial support of the Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). Numerous persons enriched the quality of the document through their precious support. I would like to particularly thank Sandra Hannusch, Felix Klauda, Isabelle Steimer, Andreas Weitzel and Thomas Wolf of KfW Entwicklungsbank for their valuable contributions. I especially thank Keti Chachibaia, Dr. Vladimir Mamaev, Ajiniyaz Reimov and Jürg Staudenmann of UNDP for contributing with their thorough and priceless experience. Stefan Zeeb Head of Division Competence Center Water and Waste Management 2 Adaptation to Climate Change in the Kura-Aras River Basin Content Executive Summary............................................................................................................... 4 Part one: Water resources and Climate ................................................................................. 8 Background........................................................................................................................ 8 Vulnerability and Relevance of Climate Change .............................................................. 12 Other factors affecting the river basin............................................................................... 12 Historical trends ............................................................................................................... 15 Future projections ............................................................................................................ 20 Impacts of climate change and variability......................................................................... 23 Part two: Institutions, strategies and activities...................................................................... 25 Political background......................................................................................................... 25 Responsible institutions ................................................................................................... 27 Local strategies................................................................................................................ 29 Possible adaptation measures ......................................................................................... 29 Development cooperation activities.................................................................................. 31 Conclusions and recommendations ................................................................................. 33 References ...................................................................................................................... 35 Annex .................................................................................................................................. 40 Annex 1: Map of Climate zones of the Caucasus ecoregion ............................................ 40 Annex 2: Climate change projections for selected locations............................................. 41 Annex 3: Priority adaptation measures in the Southern Caucasus ................................... 44 Annex 4: Glossary of terms.............................................................................................. 46 3 Adaptation to Climate Change in the Kura-Aras River Basin Executive Summary The Kura-Aras River Basin Snapshot: assessing the needs for adaptation to climate change in the South Caucasus. This basin snapshot aims at assessing historical trends and future projections in the context of climate change compared to other impacts on the water balance in the basin. It also evaluates strategies by national governments and donors for climate change adaptation and identifies critical obstacles to these strategies. Finally, it assesses the scope for no regret measures and possible new measures for climate change adaptation. Although the river basin is shared by five countries, the snapshot concentrates on the South Caucasus states Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, which largely depend on water from the basin. This snapshot is part of a series of basin snapshots in developing countries edited by KfW on behalf of the German Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). The river basin is characterized by diverse climatic and hydrological conditions. With a surface area of about 188,000 km², the basin of the two rivers is little larger than the Rhine River basin. Both rivers originate in the northeast of Turkey and both are a little longer than the Rhine River. The Kura has a length of 1,364 km and flows through Georgia and Azerbaijan into the Caspian Sea. Some of its tributaries originate in the mountains of the Greater Caucasus and are largely fed by seasonal and constant snow melt. The Aras River has a length of 1,264 km and forms the boundary between Turkey and Iran to the south and Armenia and Azerbaijan to the north. Then, it flows north and joins the Kura short before its outlet into the Caspian Sea. Shortly after the confluence with the Aras, the Kura has an average flow of about 17.3 km³ per year (average 1930-1984), which is about a quarter of the average Rhine River discharge. Precipitation in the river basin generally increases with elevation. Desertification is advancing particularly in some parts of east Armenia and Azerbaijan. Due to the diverse climatic conditions in the basin, a high variety of natural ecosystems can be found. The population of the basin is at about 14 million inhabitants. A lack of cooperation among the countries complicates transboundary water resources management. The South Caucasus region is home to numerous scattered ethnic groups, religions and cultures. Bilateral conflicts between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia started soon after they gained independence. These conflicts hamper a transboundary river management which would provide the basis for further research on the hydrological regime in the basin and a joint water resources management. Armenia and Azerbaijan both adopted a bilateral agreement with Iran from Soviet times on joint utilization of water resources. Several donors support joint river management through the exchange of data on water quality and quantity. Improved cooperation among the South Caucasus states is the objective of the Caucasus Initiative of the BMZ launched in 2001. First steps towards cooperation have been initiated. Agriculture uses about two thirds of the water in the South Caucasus Both rivers have been regulated by dams. The largest has been built at Mingechevir, where the reservoir has a storage capacity of 15.7 km³, almost the yearly flow of the Kura after the confluence with the Aras. The dams are used for hydropower and irrigation and contribute to regulate the river flow. In all three South Caucasus states, 60-70% of the water is used for agricultural purposes, even though the contribution of the sector to the GDP (including rainfed agriculture) ranges from only 6% in Azerbaijan to 19% in Georgia. 4 Adaptation to Climate Change in the Kura-Aras River Basin Historical hydrologic data are incomplete. However, the impact of climate change is visible. Hydrological data were recorded during Soviet times, but many of these records were stopped after 1990. Even the existing data are difficult to access and their quality is partly doubtful. According to available data, in Salyan about 100 km from the outlet of the Kura into the Caspian Sea, the average discharge has declined by about 15% from the 1930s to the early 1980s. However, the interannual variations are strong. Rising temperatures and consequent snow and ice melting are obvious, since rivers fed by snow show an increasing discharge. Other rivers show a strong reduction in discharge which might be caused by increasing water withdrawal. The Caspian Sea level increased by about 2.5 meters since the 1970s, following a reduction of 3 meters since the 1920s. Climate and human interferences cause strong river flow variability. Strong variability in river discharge is not a new phenomenon. Both rivers have experienced floods at least since data were recorded, caused by snow and ice melt and intense precipitation in spring and summer and intensified through anthropogenic interferences in the natural river flow, for instance through settling of flood plains or lining of river courses. On the other hand, river flows are low during autumn and winter. Together with increasing water use, this leads to water scarcity and water quality degradation, in particular in the east of the basin. Water quality in both rivers is threatened by various sources. Even though there is a lack of well founded data on surface and in particular on ground water, water quality is an important challenge even without climate change. Since Soviet times, water has been polluted through agricultural activities and chemical industry. Moreover, mining activities led to heavy metal contamination and untreated domestic wastewater adds organic pollution. There is a lack of wastewater treatment plants and those which exist often do not work properly. Climate change has the potential to further threaten water quality in both rivers. Azerbaijan is particularly