Rugby Retail and Main Town Centre Uses Study: Final Report November 2015 Retail and Main Town Centre Uses Study 2015 Final Report QA Rugby Retail and Main Town Centre Uses Study The signatories below verify that this document has been prepared in accordance with our Quality Manual requirements. These procedures do not affect the content and views expressed by the originator. The document must be treated as a draft unless it has been signed by the Originators and approved by a Partner. Date Originators: Approved: 10th November 2015 Bláthnaid Duffy Dr Steven Norris Associate Partner Limitations This document has been prepared for the stated objective and should not be used for any other purpose without the prior written authority of Carter Jonas LLP; we accept no responsibility or liability for the consequences of this document being used for a purpose other than for which it was commissioned. November 2015 i Retail and Main Town Centre Uses Study 2015 Final Report CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1 2.0 PLANNING POLICY CONTEXT 4 NATIONAL PLANNING POLICY FRAMEWORK (NPPF) 4 LOCAL PLANNING POLICY CONTEXT 8 SUMMARY 10 3.0 NATIONAL RETAIL TRENDS & TOWN CENTRE FUTURES 11 RETAIL TRENDS 11 RETAIL DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE 14 RETAILER REQUIREMENTS 15 TOWN CENTRE FUTURES 17 4.0 SHOPPING PATTERNS & MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS 22 SETTLEMENT HIERARCHY 22 STUDY AREA & ZONES 22 PATTERNS OF RETAIL AND LEISURE SPENDING 23 SUMMARY 29 5.0 RUGBY TOWN CENTRE HEALTH CHECK 30 INTRODUCTION TO TOWN CENTRE HEALTH CHECKS 30 RETAIL CONTEXT 31 RETAIL COMPOSITION AND DIVERSITY 33 VACANCY LEVELS 37 RETAILER REQUIREMENTS 39 PRIME ZONE A RENTS 39 ACCESSIBILITY & PEDESTRIAN FLOWS 40 CUSTOMER VIEWS AND PERCEPTIONS 41 ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY 44 NEW INVESTMENT AND DEVELOPMENT 44 ii November 2015 Retail and Main Town Centre Uses Study 2015 Final Report SUMMARY 45 6.0 OUT OF CENTRE AND LOCAL CENTRE PROVISION 47 RETAIL PARKS 47 KEY STANDALONE STORES 49 STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENTS 50 LOCAL CENTRES 51 SUMMARY 55 7.0 ECONOMIC CAPACITY MODEL AND BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS 57 METHODOLOGY AND BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS 57 MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS 59 ‘INFLOW’ AND BASE YEAR TURNOVER ESTIMATES 61 RETAIL COMMITMENTS 62 8.0 QUANTITATIVE RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT 65 ‘BASELINE’ CAPACITY: BOROUGH-WIDE FORECASTS 65 ‘BASELINE’ CAPACITY: CENTRE FORECASTS 67 HOUSING GROWTH AREAS 71 SUMMARY 73 9.0 LEISURE ‘GAP’ ASSESSMENT 75 LEISURE EXPENDITURE GROWTH 75 CINEMA 78 EATING & DRINKING OUT 81 HEALTH & FITNESS NEED 86 BINGO & GAMBLING 88 TEN-PIN BOWLING 90 CULTURAL ACTIVITIES 91 SUMMARY 91 10.0 OTHER TOWN CENTRE USES 94 OFFICE PROVISION 94 November 2015 iii Retail and Main Town Centre Uses Study 2015 Final Report HOTEL PROVISION 96 COMMUNITY USES PROVISION 97 11.0 ACCOMMODATING NEW RETAIL FLOORSPACE 100 REOCCUPATION OF VACANT FLOORSPACE 101 POTENTIAL SITES FOR DEVELOPMENT 101 SUMMARY 104 12.0 SHOPPING FRONTAGE & RETAIL IMPACT THRESHOLD RECOMMENDATIONS 105 PRIMARY SHOPPING AREA AND SHOPPING FRONTAGES 105 IMPACT ASSESSMENT: LOCAL FLOORSPSPACE THRESHOLD 110 13.0 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 113 SHOPPING PATTERNS & MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS 113 RETAIL CAPACITY FORECASTS 113 RUGBY TOWN CENTRE VITALITY AND VIABILITY 115 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 117 14.0 GLOSSARY & ABBREVIATIONS 119 APPENDIX 1: STUDY AREA 122 APPENDIX 2: NEMS SURVEY METHODOLOGY APPENDIX 3: HTIS SURVEY RESULTS (WEIGHTED) APPENDIX 4: CONVENIENCE GOODS MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS APPENDIX 5: COMPARISON GOODS MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS APPENDIX 6: CONVENIENCE CAPACITY ASSESSMENT APPENDIX 7: COMPARISON CAPACITY ASSESSMENT APPENDIX 8: COMMITTED RETAIL AND LEISURE FLOORSPACE APPENDIX 9: LEISURE NEEDS ASSESSMENT APPENDIX 10: EXISTING HOTEL FACILITIES APPENDIX 11: EXISTING COMMUNITY FACILITIES APPENDIX 12: RECOMMENDED SHOPPING FRONTAGES FOR RUGBY TOWN CENTRE iv November 2015 Retail and Main Town Centre Uses Study 2015 Final Report 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Carter Jonas (CJ) was commissioned by the Rugby Borough Council in February 2015 to update the retail evidence base (i.e. the Rugby Borough Council Retail and Leisure Study 2008) to help inform both plan-making and decision-taking across the Borough. 1.2 The study has been prepared in the context of current and emerging national and development plan policy guidance, as well as other key material considerations; principally the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) published in March 2012. Where relevant the study also draws on advice set out in the National Planning Practice Guidance (NPPG), published in March 2014, which still places significant weight on the development of positive plan-led visions and strategies to help ensure the vitality of town centres. The sequential and impact ‘tests’ are also key to both plan-making and decision-taking at the local level. 1.3 For the purpose of this study the assessment of the need (or ‘capacity’) for new retail (convenience and comparison goods) floorspace has been carried out at the strategic Borough-wide level to help inform the likely scale, type, location and phasing of new retail development over the short (0-5 years), medium (6-10 years) and long term (11+ years). The results of the capacity assessment will supersede the findings of the Retail and Leisure Study 2008 (‘2008 RLS’) 1.4 The Study Area defined for the purpose of this retail assessment principally covers Rugby Borough, but also a wider area incorporating neighbouring local planning authorities. This area has been further sub-divided into 13 study zones that broadly reflect the likely shopping catchment of Rugby Town Centre and retail parks (see Appendix 1). The defined Study Area and zones provide the framework for the new telephone interview survey of some 1,300 households conducted by NEMS Market Research (NEMS) in April 2015. This survey provides the most up-to-date and robust evidence on shopping patterns, leisure preferences and expenditure flows within the Study Area. In turn, this has informed the high level health check assessments for the two town centres, as well as the quantitative (‘capacity’) and qualitative need assessments for new retail (convenience and comparison goods) floorspace. The survey approach adopted by NEMS is explained in some detail in Appendix 2, along with the questionnaire. The full (weighted) survey results are set out in Appendix 3. 1.5 The findings of the qualitative and quantitative assessment 1.6 For ease of reference this report is structured as follows: Section 2 reviews the national, regional and local planning policy context material to retail planning and town centres. Section 3 highlights some of the key trends that are driving the dynamic changes in the retail sector at the national and local level, and how this has shaped (and is likely to shape) the UK’s urban and retail landscape. November 2015 1 Retail and Main Town Centre Uses Study 2015 Final Report Section 4 sets out the results of the market share analysis for convenience and comparison goods retailing across the Study Area and 13 zones as derived from the results of the household telephone interview survey. The market share tabulations for convenience and comparison goods are set out in Appendix 4 and Appendix 5 respectively. Sections 5-6 provide high-level updates of health checks for Rugby Town Centre and a high-level review of the out of centre provision in the Borough and an overview of the role and function of Borough’s local centres. These assessments draw on recent research, including site visits and the latest Experian Goad data for Rugby, supplemented by site visits and audits. Section 7 sets out the baseline and forecast data used to inform the quantitative (capacity) assessment, which is based on our in-house CREATe (excel spreadsheet model). This includes population projections, expenditure data and trends. Section 8 describes the key inputs and outputs of the retail (economic) capacity assessment for comparison and convenience goods retailing for the Borough, Rugby Town Centre and Borough’s smaller centres. The full tabulations are set out in Appendix 6 for convenience goods and Appendix 7 for comparison goods, which takes account of pipeline retail floorspace identified in Appendix 8. Section 9 sets out the findings of the commercial leisure ‘gap’ and need assessment for the main leisure uses and identified, including food and beverage, cinema and gym provision across the Study Area. Summary assessment tables are set out in Appendix 9. Section 10 provides an overview of any gaps in other town centre uses, specifically offices, hotels, and community uses. The assessment is accompanied by a plan of existing and proposed hotel provision for the Borough in Appendix 10 and key community facilities in Appendix 11. Section 11 assesses the need to review the definition of the primary shopping area for Rugby Town Centre in light of the findings of the need assessment, and recommendation on primary and secondary shopping frontages. Advice is also provided on whether a local impact threshold should be set in accordance with the NPPF (para 26). A plan of recommended frontage boundaries is set out in Appendix 12. Finally, Section 12 draws together the key findings of the qualitative and quantitative need assessments for retail and commercial leisure. 1.7 Finally, it is important to state at the outset that, in our experience, capacity forecasts beyond a five year time period should be interpreted with caution as they are subject to increasing margins of error. We therefore advise the Council that although this updated study provides the robust evidence base required to help inform plan-making, 2 November 2015 Retail and Main Town Centre Uses Study 2015 Final Report site allocations and the determination of planning applications at the local level, the forecasts should be constantly monitored and updated to take into account any significant new retail development and changes in the retail expenditure and population growth forecasts over time, as well as any potential impacts arising from other key trends in the retail (such as, for example, the growth in internet shopping) and commercial leisure sectors.