Blaby District Council Blaby Retail Study Update 2012 THIS DOCUMENT IS FORMATTED FOR DOUBLE-SIDED PRINTING Date: July 2012 Amended by: SJR Principal changes: SJR/JW Final sign off: JW/MJ Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................... 1 2 The Requirements of National and Regional Policy .............. 3 National Planning Policy Framework (2012) ............................................................. 3 3 Performance Analysis of Centres ........................................... 5 4 Current Patterns of Retail Spending ....................................... 7 Overall Catchment Area ........................................................................................... 7 Comparison and Convenience Goods Expenditure Patterns ..................................... 8 5 Quantitative Need in the Retail Sector .................................... 9 Methodology ............................................................................................................ 9 Catchment Population Forecasts .............................................................................. 9 Convenience Goods .............................................................................................. 10 Comparison Goods ................................................................................................ 13 Higher Population Growth Scenario........................................................................ 16 Expenditure Capacity – Convenience Goods .......................................................... 16 Expenditure Cpacity – Comparison Goods ............................................................. 18 6 Strategies for Meeting Retail Needs ...................................... 20 Appendix 1 – Overall Catchment Area Plan Appendix 2 – Convenience Goods Capacity Assessment Appendix 3 – Comparison Goods Capacity Assessment Appendix 4 – Housing Allocations Analysis 1 Introduction 1.1 Drivers Jonas Deloitte (DJ Deloitte) was instructed by Blaby District Council (Blaby DC) in April 2012 to provide an update to those parts of the Roger Tym and Partners (RTP) Blaby Retail Study 2008, where it was known that there had been some material change of circumstances over the last four years. 1.2 The broad conclusions and recommendations of the Retail Study 2008 remain and continue to provide a sound evidence base for the LDF Core Strategy. This Update needs therefore to be read alongside the original Retail Study – it is not a replacement for it. 1.3 The particular matters that are readdressed in this Study are: Forecast years – The Update provides forecasts to 2029 to accord with the Core Strategy plan-period; Revised population forecasts – these are based on the latest 2010– based ONS sub-national population projections published in 2012 (an alternative scenario is presented showing capacity forecasts based upon the population increases brought about by the District’s proposed Housing Allocations); The new national planning policy context provide by the ‘National Planning Policy Framework’ published on 27 March 2012; Revised estimates of residents’ retail expenditure – the Retail Study 2008 was undertaken immediately prior to the economic recession, the outcome of which has been significantly lower forecasts of disposable income growth; Updated trends in relation to the proportion of expenditure that is accounted for by Non-Store Retail Trade (NSRT) or Special Forms of Trading – current trends show an increase in NSRT expenditure although the figures now include online sales such as ‘click and collect’ where goods are actually sourced from shops; Some changes in retailer representation, e.g. the conversion of Somerfield stores to the Co-op and Jacksons to Sainsburys Local; and, Retail commitments and proposals in the Overall Catchment Area. 1.4 The following parts of the Retail Study have not been readdressed, because, although there may have been some changes, the assessments and overall findings remain valid: The PPS6 performance analysis assessment of centres within the District (Retail Study Section 3). The PPS6 methodology remains appropriate. There have been no changes in the retail hierarchy. Attention is drawn separately to any material changes in the centres e.g. improvement initiatives, commitments, etc. 2012 Blaby District Council 1 Application of the results of the NEMS household interview surveys undertaken in May 2008, in respect of shopping patterns at the Study base year; The broad methodology for assessing quantitative retail needs within the District; and, The scope for additional commercial leisure provision within the District. 2 Blaby District Council 2012 2 The Requirements of National and Regional Policy 2.1 The Retail Study 2008 is based primarily on the national planning policy context provided by PPS6 ‘Planning for Town Centres’, 2005. It also refers to PPS12 ‘Local Spatial Planning’ and the Regional Spatial Strategy for the East Midlands (RSS8), 2005. 2.2 PSS6 was replaced initially by PPS4 ‘Planning for Sustainable Economic Growth’ in 2009 and subsequently by the NPPF in March 2012. PPS12 was also subsumed by the NPPF. The Regional Spatial Strategy for the East Midlands (RSS8) remains in force only until such time as it is cancelled through the provisions of the Localism Act. 2.3 The requirements of national and regional policy underlying the Retail Study assessments remain valid. In broad terms the NPPF reiterates the PPS6 / PPS4 retail policy requirements, but in a more streamlined form with some modifications. 2.4 The RRS8 regional spatial strategy requirements have largely been built into the LDF Core Strategy, so that cancellation of the RSS should not now lead to any significant changes. 2.5 We describe below the relevant (town centre / retail) requirements of the NPPF, in accordance with which this Update has been undertaken. National Planning Policy Framework (2012) 2.6 The NPPF (paragraph 150) states that Local Plans are the key to delivering sustainable development and that planning decisions must be taken in accordance with the development plan unless material considerations indicate otherwise. 2.7 The Local Plan should be based on adequate, up-to-date and relevant evidence about the economic, social and environmental characteristics and prospects of the area, taking account of relevant market and economic signals (paragraph 158). 2.8 Paragraphs 23 to 27 of the NPPF provide guidance on the promotion of the vitality and viability of town centres, with paragraph 23 setting out specific planning policy considerations for planning authorities when drawing up Local Plans. These are: “Recognise town centres as the heart of their communities and pursue policies to support their viability and vitality; 2012 Blaby District Council 3 Define a network and hierarchy of centres that is resilient to anticipated future economic changes; Define the extent of town centres and primary shopping areas, based on a clear definition of primary and secondary frontages in designated centres, and set policies that make clear which uses will be permitted in such locations; Promote competitive town centres that provide customer choice and a diverse retail offer and which reflect the individuality of town centres; Retain and enhance existing markets and, where appropriate, re-introduce or create new ones, ensuring that markets remain attractive and competitive; Allocate a range of suitable sites to meet the scale and type of retail, leisure, commercial, office, tourism, cultural, community and residential development needed in town centres. It is important that needs for retail, leisure, office and other main town centre uses are met in full and are not compromised by limited site availability. Local planning authorities should therefore undertake an assessment of the need to expand town centres to ensure a sufficient supply of suitable sites; Allocate appropriate edge of centre sites for main town centre uses that are well connected to the town centre where suitable and viable town centre sites are not available. If sufficient edge of centre sites cannot be identified, set policies for meeting the identified needs in other accessible locations that are well connected to the town centre; Set policies for the consideration of proposals for main town centre uses which cannot be accommodated in or adjacent to town centres; Recognise that residential development can play an important role in ensuring the vitality of centres and set out policies to encourage residential development on appropriate sites; and, Where town centres are in decline, local planning authorities should plan positively for their future to encourage economic activity.” 2.9 It will be important for the Council to consider how these matters are addressed in the LDF Core Strategy. However, it should be noted that the NPPF is identifying considerations that are relevant to a Local Plan, and it may not therefore be appropriate to include some of these matters within an LDF Core Strategy at this interim plan–making stage, e.g. the definition of primary shopping areas, and primary and secondary shopping frontages. 2.10 Paragraphs 14-26 describe sequential approach and impact tests that are broadly similar to, but a simplified version of, the tests in PPS4. They are most applicable to the consideration of planning applications. 4 Blaby District Council 2012 3 Performance Analysis of Centres 3.1 The Retail Study 2008 provides a comprehensive analysis of the performance of