Leicester City Council and Blaby District Council Town Centre and Retail Study Final Report September 2015 Address: Quay West at MediaCityUK, Trafford Wharf Road, Trafford Park, Manchester, M17 1HH Tel: 0161 872 3223 E-Mail: [email protected] Web: www.wyg.com Document Control Project: Town Centre and Retail Study Client: Leicester City Council and Blaby District Council Job Number: A088154 T:\Job Files - Manchester\A088154 - Leicester Retail Study\Reports\Final\Leicester and Blaby Retail File Origin: Study_Final Report.doc WYG Planning and Environment creative minds safe hands Contents Page 1.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 1 2.0 Current and Emerging Retail Trends ................................................................................................ 3 3.0 Planning Policy Context .................................................................................................................. 16 4.0 Original Market Research ................................................................................................................ 28 5.0 Health Check Assessments.............................................................................................................. 67 6.0 Population and Expenditure ............................................................................................................ 149 7.0 Retail Capacity in Leicester and Blaby Authority Areas ...................................................................... 158 8.0 Commercial Leisure ........................................................................................................................ 182 9.0 Leicester: Key Findings and Recommendations ................................................................................ 193 10.0 Blaby: Key Findings and Recommendations ..................................................................................... 201 Appendix 1: Map of Study Area and Zones Appendix 2: Household Survey Results Appendix 3: Leicester City Council Health Check Assessments Appendix 4: Blaby District Council Health Check Assessments Appendix 5: Leicester City Centre Diversity of Use and Vacancies Plan Appendix 6: District and Local Centres Provision Matrix Appendix 7: Quantitative Capacity Assessment Appendix 8: Spatial Distribution of Food Supermarkets and Superstores in Leicester and Blaby Appendix 9: Spatial Distribution of Network of Leicester and Blaby Centres Appendix 10: Leicester City Centre Primary Shopping Area and Primary and Secondary Frontages Plan WYG Planning and Environment creative minds safe hands 1.0 Introduction Instruction 1.01 WYG Planning (hereafter referred to as ‘WYG’) was commissioned by Leicester City Council and Blaby District Council in October 2014 to undertake a Retail and Capacity Study for the two authority areas. 1.02 The key purposes of the Study were identified in the Request for Quotation document. Section 2 of the Request for Quotation set out four key objectives for the Study, these being: Provide a review of the vitality and viability of the main centres and assess their function; Define a network of hierarchy of centres (including planned centres); Identify the quantitative and qualitative need for retail and other town centre uses up to 2031 and set out appropriate strategies to meet any identified needs; and Advise on the need for a locally derived threshold for impact assessments and the level at which this should be set. 1.03 Given the above requirements, it is envisaged that the Study will act as the evidence base to assist in the formulation of future development plan policy, as well as providing baseline information to assist in the determination of planning applications for retail development. 1.04 In addition to considerable work ‘in the field’ to determine the current health of all defined centres, the Study also draws upon new empirical research, with NEMS Market Research Limited (NEMS) undertaking surveys of 1,600 households within a defined Study Area in November 2014. The Study Area for the household survey comprises 16 zones which are based on postcode sectors grouped to reflect areas which are likely to exhibit similar patterns of shopping behaviour. The Study Area encompasses the two local authority areas, but also includes locations further afield (such as Oadby and Hinckley, which to some degree look towards facilities within the Study Area to help meet their retail and leisure needs). In addition, NEMS also carried out an ‘in-street’ survey of visitors to Leicester city centre in November 2014. 1.05 In assessing the quantitative needs of the two authorities, the Study draws upon the most recent Experian Micromarketer G3 (MMG3) population and expenditure data (published October 2014) in order to establish the up-to-date position with regard to both convenience and comparison goods capacity. 1 Leicester City Council and Blaby District Council A084616 02/11/2015 Structure of Report 1.06 Our report is structured as follows: Section 2 provides a context for the Study by providing an analysis of key retail trends; Section 3 considers the up-to-date position in respect of relevant national retail and town centre planning policy; Section 4 presents the key findings in respect of the household and in-street survey research; Section 5 considers the vitality and viability of Leicester’s and Blaby’s town, district and local centres; Section 6 identifies current and future population and expenditure levels within the Study Area; Section 7 provides our assessment of the quantitative and qualitative need for further convenience and comparison goods retail floorspace over the assessment period; Section 8 considers the need for additional commercial leisure development; Section 9 summarises our key findings for Leicester and sets out our recommendations in respect of its future retail and town centre strategy; and Section 10 summarises our key findings for Blaby and sets out our recommendations in respect of its future retail and town centre strategy. 2 Leicester City Council and Blaby District Council A084616 02/11/2015 2.0 Current and Emerging Retail Trends Introduction 2.01 The retail property landscape across the UK has evolved significantly over the past 50 years, from post-war redevelopment in town centres, through to the emergence of retail warehouse parks and out-of-town regional shopping malls. For most of this period, the retail and leisure sectors have experienced considerable expenditure growth, which has been attributed to a number of factors, including greater disposable income, availability of credit, new technology and a general overall increase in our standard of living. However, recent economic conditions have had a clear impact on expenditure and convenience goods spending per capita has actually reduced in recent years. The way in which goods are purchased has also altered due to the increased popularity of ‘e-tailing’, which now claims more than one in every ten pounds spent in the UK. 2.02 The retail and leisure market and the need for new development continually evolves as a result of numerous factors including demographics, consumer demands, car ownership, planning policy and technological advancements. The share of retail spending has undergone a significant shift in the decade since 2002, with Verdict identifying that town centre spending as a proportion of overall spending declined from 47.7% to 39.9% at 2012. In contrast, spending in out of centre locations has increased over the same period by 2.1% and non-store locations (principally internet retailers) by 6.6% 1. These changes have had a major impact on the format and location of retail and leisure floorspace, which has led to recent Governments reaffirming their commitment to the ‘town centre first’ policy approach that is now outlined in the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) (March 2012). Current Retail Picture 2.03 A recent report by Colliers 2 provides information regarding recent trends, together with forecasts for the future of retailing in the UK. The findings confirm that the retail sector has been significantly affected by the wider economic climate and that there is considerable uncertainty about the strength and durability of future growth. However, Colliers reports that the recent improved economic outlook is beginning to result in increased consumer confidence and pockets of retailer expansion which are resulting in a reduction in vacant retail space. Furthermore, it is evident that the UK unemployment rate is currently falling (recorded as being 5.7% between October and December 2014, compared to 1 ‘UK Out of Town Retailing’, Verdict Datamonitor, April 2012 2 ‘National Retail Barometer: Summer 2014’, Colliers, September 2014 3 Leicester City Council and Blaby District Council A084616 02/11/2015 6.0% between July and September 2014) 3 and that average pay for employees in Great Britain increased 2.1% between October and December 2014 compared to the same period 12 months earlier 4. 2.04 Notwithstanding these very recent encouraging signs, the economic conditions of the past few years have had a significant impact on the public’s ability and willingness to spend their earnings on retail goods. Since 2010 there have also been increases in taxation (for example in VAT, national insurance contributions and capital gains tax) which also impact upon households’ spending. Furthermore, in recent years inflation has consistently