ANDOVER AND ROMSEY RETAIL CAPACITY & LEISURE STUDY - 2018 FINAL REPORT April 2018 One Chapel Place, London, W1G 0BG CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 1 INTRODUCTION 13 2 PLANNING POLICY REVIEW 15 National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) (2012) 15 National Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) 17 Draft Revised National Planning Policy Framework (Draft NPPF) 18 Local Planning Policy Context 18 Housing 20 Retail 22 Summary 24 3 NATIONAL RETAIL AND TOWN CENTRE TRENDS 25 Retail Trends 25 Special Forms of Trading and Internet Shopping 26 Floorspace 'Productivity' Growth 29 Changing Retailer Requirements 30 Vacancy Levels 31 Trends in Retail-Led Investment and Development 32 Independents and Street Markets 34 Impact of Out-Of-Centre Retailing 35 Summary 36 4 CATCHMENT AREA & SHOPPING PATTERNS 38 Study Area and Zones 38 Household Telephone Interview Survey & Market Share Analysis 40 Summary 47 5 IN-CENTRE SURVEY RESULTS 49 Method 49 Socio-Economic Profile of Shopper and Visitors to Centres 50 Mode of Travel 52 Length of stay 53 Frequency of Visits 54 Main Reason for Visit 55 Main Types of Shops Visited 55 Main Shops Visited 55 Spending Levels in Andover and Romsey 56 Linked Trips in Andover and Romsey 57 Respondents views of Andover and Romsey 58 Potential Improvements to Andover and Romsey 59 Retailer ‘Gap’ Analysis 60 Competing Shopping Destinations 61 Why Respondents Shop Elsewhere 62 Provision of Leisure facilities 63 Street Markets 64 Summary 65 6 BUSINESS SURVEY RESULTS 66 Method 66 Types of Business 66 Time Businesses Have Been Operating in Centres 68 Size of Businesses 69 ANDOVER AND ROMSEY RETAIL CAPACITY & LEISURE STUDY - 2018 Page 2 of 190 Main Reasons why Businesses located in Andover and Romsey 69 Future Business Plans 70 Key Constraints to Growth 70 Actions to Facilitate Growth 71 Andover Town Centre 72 Romsey Town Centre 76 Business Performance 79 Trading Performance 80 Benefits to the Businesses 81 Summary 81 7 TOWN CENTRE HEALTH CHECKS: METHODOLOGY 84 Engagement of Key Stakeholders 84 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 85 Goad Town Centre Definitions and Floorspace 86 Vacancies 86 Multiple and Independent Retailers 86 Street/Covered Markets 87 Retailer Demand and Requirements 87 Prime Zone A Rents 87 Customer Views and Behaviour 87 Environmental Quality 87 Accessibility 88 Out of Centre Provision 88 New Investment & Potential Development 88 8 ANDOVER TOWN CENTRE – HEALTH CHECK ASSESSMENT 89 Context 89 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 91 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 96 Markets and Events 96 Retailer Demand & Requirements 97 Prime Zone A Rents 97 Environmental Quality 98 Accessibility & Pedestrian Flows 98 Customer Views and Behaviour / Household Survey 100 Out of Centre Provision 101 New Investment & Potential Development 101 Summary 102 9 ROMSEY TOWN CENTRE – HEALTH CHECK ASSESSMENT 105 Context 105 Retail Composition & Diversity of Uses 107 Vacancies 110 Multiple and Independent Retail Representation 111 Markets and Events 111 Retailer Demand & Requirements 112 Prime Zone A Rents 112 Environmental Quality 113 Accessibility & Pedestrian Flows 113 Customer Views and Behaviour / Household Survey 114 Out-of-Centre Provision 115 New Investment & Potential Development 115 Summary 115 10 COMPARATOR CENTRES 118 Methodology 118 Bury St Edmunds 118 ANDOVER AND ROMSEY RETAIL CAPACITY & LEISURE STUDY - 2018 Page 3 of 190 Petersfield 120 Yeovil 121 Sherborne 122 Andover Gap Analysis 122 Romsey Gap Analysis 124 Summary 125 11 QUANTITATIVE RETAIL NEEDS ASSESSMENT 127 The CREAT e Model: Key Baseline Assumptions & Forecasts 127 Base Year Population and Projections 128 Base Year Expenditure Per Capita and Forecasts 128 Total Available Expenditure 129 Market Share Analysis (excluding SFT) 129 ‘Inflow’ (Trade Draw) 130 Retail Floorspace Commitments & Allocations 131 Test Valley Capacity Forecasts 132 Summary 135 12 COMMERCIAL LEISURE NEEDS 136 Leisure Expenditure Growth 136 Cinema Capacity 138 Eating & Drinking Out 142 Health & Fitness Need 145 Bingo & Gambling Needs 149 Other Commercial Leisure Needs 151 Cultural Activities 152 Hotel Provision 154 Conclusion 155 13 SHOPPING FRONTAGES & BOUNDARIES POLICY CONTEXT 158 Shopping Frontages & Boundaries National Policy and Context 158 Test Valley Council’s Current Policy Context 161 14 TOWN CENTRE STRATEGIES: SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 168 Needs Assessment 168 Ensuring the Vitality of Town Centres 170 Retail Hierarchy Recommendations 172 Recommendations on Frontages 173 Local Impact Threshold: Recommendations 174 Sequential Test Threshold: Recommendations 176 15 GLOSSARY 177 Appendix 1: STUDY AREA 179 Appendix 2: POPULATION AND EXPENDITURE (CONVENIENCE GOODS) 180 Appendix 3: POPULATION AND EXPENDITURE (COMPARISON GOODS) 181 Appendix 4: CONVENIENCE GOODS MARKET SHARES 182 Appendix 5: COMPARISON GOODS MARKET SHARES 183 Appendix 6: FORECAST CONVENIENCE GOODS TURNOVER 184 Appendix 7: FORECAST COMPARISON GOODS TURNOVER 185 ANDOVER AND ROMSEY RETAIL CAPACITY & LEISURE STUDY - 2018 Page 4 of 190 Appendix 8: CONVENIENCE GOODS CAPACITY ASSESSMENT 186 Appendix 9: COMPARISON GOODS CAPACITY ASSESSMENT 187 Appendix 10: NEMS HOUSEHOLD SURVEY RESULTS 188 Appendix 11: NEMS IN-CENTRE SURVEY RESULTS 189 Appendix 12: NEMS BUSINESS SURVEY RESULTS 190 ANDOVER AND ROMSEY RETAIL CAPACITY & LEISURE STUDY - 2018 Page 5 of 190 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction 1. Carter Jonas was commissioned by Test Valley Borough Council to produce a Retail Capacity and Leisure Study (the ‘Study’) to help inform both plan-making, and development management decisions across the local authority area. 2. The Study has been prepared in the context of current and emerging national and development plan policy guidance, as well as other key material considerations; principally the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) published in March 2012, and the draft National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) published in March 2018. 3. The key elements include: ° a review of national and local planning policy pertaining to retail planning and town centres; ° a review of trends driving changes in the retail and leisure sectors; ° market share analysis for convenience and comparison goods shopping and leisure uses across the Borough based on a specifically commissioned Household Telephone Interview Survey (HTIS); ° a health check for the Council’s main town centres of Andover and Romsey; ° quantitative need (capacity) assessment for new retail (comparison and convenience goods) floorspace in the Council area up to 2036; ° a ‘gap’ assessment of commercial leisure and other town centre uses; ° recommendations on the extent of the existing Primary Shopping Frontages (PSFs) and Secondary Shopping Frontages (SSFs) in the Borough’s main centres; and ° strategic advice on how the Council can effectively plan for, manage and promote the vitality and viability of the main centres over the plan period to 2036. Planning Policy & Retail Trends 4. The review of the adopted and draft NPPF and Local Plan policy highlights the importance to maintain and enhance the vitality and viability of Town Centres, and to promote new sustainable development and economic growth in Town Centre locations 'first', prior to the consideration of edge of centre, and then out of centre locations. This policy objective is crucial as Town Centres are facing increasing economic challenges associated with alternative forms of retailing, in particular online shopping. 5. Existing floorspace in Town Centres face a myriad of challenges. These will continue to grow over the short, medium and long term. Centres within the Borough will need to embrace the new dynamics and build in resilience to adapt seamlessly to future changes where necessary. There is still a role for existing floorspace and physical ‘store based’ retailing in town centres. However, within the Borough, there will be a need to build in resilience to the changes in shopping habits - town centres are likely to move away from being solely retail led locations to those which offer a wider range of retail, leisure, cultural and other amenities. Market Shares 6. The Study addresses the requirement for the Council to update their evidence base in respect of retailing, commercial leisure and town centre uses. To understand the local retail and commercial dynamics, a Study (catchment) Area was defined for the retail and town centre assessment. This is shown in Figure 1 : ANDOVER AND ROMSEY RETAIL CAPACITY & LEISURE STUDY - 2018 Page 6 of 190 Figure 1: Study Area ANDOVER AND ROMSEY RETAIL CAPACITY & LEISURE STUDY - 2018 Page 7 of 190 7. The Study Area comprised ten zones based on ward geography. A household telephone interview survey of some 1,000 respondents was carried out across this area. 8. Across the Council area (Zones 1-5) the market share for Special Forms of Trading 1 (SFT) for convenience goods is lower than the national average, which suggests that there is potential for internet food shopping to increase its market share over time. This may reduce the expenditure available to support the need for physical space over the longer term. The comparison goods market share across the Council Area (Zones 1-5) for SFT is higher than the national average. This may indicate there is a gap in the existing comparison shopping facilities, specifically within Andover which has an unusually high SFT retention rate of 40.1%. 9. Convenience food stores within the Council area are achieving an overall market share of 67.6% across the Council Area, which represents a good retention rate reflecting the