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Market Monitor Contents SOUTH WEST OF ENGLAND & SOUTH WALES OFFICES INDUSTRIAL RETAIL LEISURE INVESTMENT RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT LAND 5 YEARS OF ANALYSIS DEMAND SUPPLY HEADLINE RENT PRIME YIELDS Market Monitor Contents 2 Welcome 11 Exeter 21 Swindon 3 Across the region 13 Gloucester 23 Taunton 5 Bath 15 Newport 25 Truro 7 Bristol 17 Plymouth 27 Yeovil 9 Cardiff 19 Swansea 29 A service overview 1 Alder King Market Monitor 2014 100 Temple Street, Bristol. Welcome to the 2014 edition of Market Monitor. This report provides a review of the commercial property market in the South West of England and Wales over the past 12 months, with data, trends and market analysis on 12 key regional centres. After a year of steady GDP growth and improved confidence, particularly in the manufacturing, construction and service sectors, prospects for the region’s occupier market are at their most optimistic since the downturn began in 2008. As forecast in last year’s Market Monitor, stronger office and industrial take up combined with a greater shortage of new well-specified space led to a return of speculative development in 2013, the first for over four years. Two high profile office schemes are now underway in Bristol city centre, both of which could push rental levels over the £27.50 per sq ft mark. There are also speculative industrial schemes underway in Bristol, Gloucester, Wellington, Bridgwater and Newquay. The region’s retail sector benefits from continued investment, with new retail schemes either in the pipeline or recently completed in Swindon, Gloucester, Exeter, Plymouth, Newport, Swansea, Taunton and Yeovil. Together with a resurgent residential land market and strengthening investor confidence in the regions, we expect to see improving occupier demand and an increasing level of development and investment activity in 2014. Simon Price, Head of Agency at Alder King www.alderking.com 2 Across the region Offices Simon Price T 0117 317 1084 E [email protected] office headline rent £psf 30 27.5 in town out of town 25 (296) 22 21.5 21 20 17.5 17.5 17.5 17 (231) 16.5 16.5 (237) 16 (226) 15.5 15 15 14.5 15 14 13 (188) 12 12 (188) (188) (183) (178) (178) (12) (172) 11.5 11 (167) (161) 10.75 (156) 10 (140) (140) 8.5 (129) (129) (118) (124) (116) (91) 5 0 Bath Truro Bristol Cardiff Exeter Yeovil Newport Swansea Swindon Taunton Gloucester Plymouth occupational summary • 2013 saw increased office take up in Bristol, • The positive impact of these PDR proposals Exeter, Gloucester, Swindon and Yeovil. is likely to be two-fold: reducing the supply of • As predicted last year, 2013 also saw the return poorer quality, second hand space and pushing of speculative office development in central more occupiers into the market. Bristol with both Skanska and Salmon Harvester • The overall reduction in supply is already commencing major new developments. resulting in reduced incentive levels in some • The introduction of Permitted Development locations and the prospects for rental growth are Rights has already resulted in a significant level improving. of proposals for conversion of secondary office buildings to residential use. Industrial Andrew Ridler T 0117 317 1071 E [email protected] industrial headline rent £psf 10 rent 8 7.5 7.5 7 7 7 6.75 6.5 (81) (81) 6 (75) 6 (75) (75) (73) (70) 5 5.95 (65) 4.2 4 4 (54) (64) (45) (43) 2 0 Bath Truro Bristol Cardiff Exeter Yeovil Newport Swansea Swindon Taunton Gloucester Plymouth occupational summary • Take up in 2013 decreased on the previous year • With an improving number of medium sized in all but Cardiff, Gloucester, Taunton, Yeovil and requirements, occupiers are increasingly only Truro, with a lack of good quality supply being a able to satisfy their needs via the design and constraint to activity in the other centres. build route. • Supply continued to fall across the region, with • With the lack of supply and rising levels of take the exception of Gloucester where there was an up, particularly in the demand triangle of Bristol, increase as a result of SuperGroup’s relocation. Gloucester, Swindon and Taunton, we anticipate • Supply in Bristol is now at its lowest level for 10 further speculative activity. years. • The overall reduction in supply is already • Demand is increasingly focused on better resulting in reduced incentive levels in some specified space, with new build activity currently locations and the prospects for rental growth are underway in Bristol, Gloucester, Wellington, improving. Bridgwater and Newquay. sq ft (sq m) 3 Alder King Market Monitor 2014 Retail Market Summary Residential Charles Russell-Smith T 0117 317 1043 E [email protected] Development zone A headline rent £psf out of town rent £psf 300 50 Land 250 225 40 35 200 200 200 200 30 30 30 Chris Haworth 30 28 28 150 150 25 25 (377) 23 150 (2,422) 20.5 55 55 T 0117 317 1042 20 (2,153) (2,153) (2,153) 19 (377) (377) (323) 110 20 (301) (301) 100 100 90 100 (?) (269) (269) (1,615) (1,615) E [email protected] (248) (215) (592) (592) 10 50 (205) (1,184) (968) (1,076) (1,076) 0 0 Development land market summary Bath Truro Bath Truro Bristol Cardiff Exeter Yeovil Bristol Cardiff Exeter Yeovil Newport Swansea Swindon Taunton Newport Swansea Swindon Taunton Gloucester Plymouth Gloucester Plymouth • 2013 was the most active residential (Cabot Circus) development land market in recent years. House building was at its highest level • Following a period of improving GDP growth and • The food-store sector remains very active both in for a decade, with house prices hitting a an increase in consumer spending, the latter part and out of centre. The big five operators continue record high, fuelling developer demand of 2013 saw a cautious level of confidence return to drive expansion through their convenience for new opportunities. This positive to the retail sector. formats and size requirements for larger format change in sentiment was stimulated by stores have generally reduced. Government initiatives making available • Prime rental levels have generally stabilised up to 95% LTV mortgages. across the region and there are reasonable • In most locations, discounters continue to prospects for growth in some centres during dominate demand for both the food and non- • As anticipated in last year’s Market the course of 2014. Good levels of demand food, with Aldi, Lidl, B&M, Poundland and 99p Monitor, demand for well-located remain for prime locations in larger town and Stores active throughout the region. quality residential development land is outstripping supply with consequent cities. Selective demand has returned to good • The leisure sector continues to thrive both in secondary locations. upward pressure on land values. and out of centre and A3 operators are proving Consented, fully serviced sites in good • Following several years of no development, 2013 a welcome addition to the tenant mix in many locations are now regularly exceeding £1 saw the completion of a new leisure development established shopping centres and retail parks. million per net developable acre. at St Stephen’s Place, Trowbridge. In 2014, 2013 has also witnessed considerable growth in the mixed retail and leisure Regent Circus demand from the budget gym operators. • There is much activity on greenfield development in Swindon will open and proposals land on the periphery of cities, towns for the delivery of the Friars Walk Shopping and villages. Sites ranging from five Centre in Newport in 2015 are progressing. to 200 acres are in short supply and our Residential Development team has been very busy advising landowner and developer clients on Conditional Contracts, Options, Planning Promotion Investment John Benson T 0117 317 1100 E [email protected] Agreements and Joint Ventures. • House builders are re-entering the high density city centre market and we value of investment transactions £ms anticipate more small and medium sized apartment schemes in 2014. We have also 350 received institutional-backed, deliverable 300 proposals on city centre sites for high- 319 density Private Rental Schemes (PRS) 250 which are progressing. 200 • There has been a very positive reaction to 150 the Government’s relaxation of Permitted Development Rights, enabling change 100 of use from offices to residential. In 131.33 49.64 123.98 42.75 Bristol alone, circa 0.5 million sq ft of 50 41.6 21.45 16.63 9.63 67.18 development is in the pipeline. 8.87 0 52.85 • With a huge amount of construction Bath Truro capacity lost since 2007, coupled with an Bristol Cardiff Exeter Yeovil Newport Swansea Swindon Taunton Gloucester Plymouth upturn in construction activity, material investment market summary and labour costs are beginning to rise. Any differential between construction • Increased confidence in a sustained economic • Investment in the South West and South Wales is costs and house prices will impact directly recovery and renewed activity in the occupier dominated by UK investors but there is overseas on land value. Currently, the equation is in leasing market has led to the regional commercial interest in prime trophy assets. All asset types equilibrium . investment market gaining in strength have benefited with the strongest demand for throughout 2013, most notably in the final regional offices, industrial and alternative sectors • Demand remains strong in the retirement, quarter. including hotels, student accommodation and care and student markets. • Strongest demand has been for prime or health. Early interest in the Private Residential index-linked income streams but, with supply Sector is also gaining momentum. constrained, this has led to improvements for • Relaxation of Permitted Development Rights has secondary assets, as investors become more seen strong demand for secondary offices with willing to accept increased risk in their hunt for potential for alternative residential or student use improved returns.
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