JURNAL NATAPRAJA Kajian Ilmu Administrasi Negara

Vol. 6, No. 2, 2018 https://journal.uny.ac.id/index.php/natapraja pp. 115-128

ABE'S FOREIGN POLICY

Hideaki Shirakata

College of Interdisciplinary Studies (CIS), Thammasat University, Thailand [email protected]

Abstrak Tulisan ini berusaha menjelaskan mengenai Perdana Menteri Jepang, Shinzo Abe, dalam isu diplomasi keamanan sebagai langkah responsif terhadap perubahan keamanan di sekitar Jepang. Data dalam tulisan ini berasal dari sumber sekunder, terutama jurnal, laporan resmi dan buku. Temuan dari sumber-sumber tersebut menunjukkan bahwa karena menghadapi ancaman eksternal, langkah berani dibuat untuk mengatasi ancaman keamanan meskipun ada protes besar. Selain itu, di bawah tema diplomasi bernama "diplomasi perdamaian proaktif", tampaknya Abe bertujuan untuk membentuk aliansi keamanan yang dipimpin Jepang di wilayah tersebut. Jepang dalam konteks Asia, sebagai poros aliansi keamanan Jepang-AS. Terdapat hambatan konstitusional, khususnya pasal 9 yang bersangkutan mengenai kebijakan luar negeri yang independen akan dibatasi. Kata Kunci: Kebijakan Luar Negeri, Shinzo Abe, dan Jepang

Abstract The essay seeks to examine the Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe’s security diplomacy in responsive to changes in the security environment surrounding Japan. The data referred in the essay is from the secondary sources, mainly academic journals and books. The finding showed that due to external threat, a bold move was made to pass the security bills despite a major protest. Moreover, under his theme of diplomacy named “proactive peace diplomacy”, it appears that he aims to form a Japan-led-security alliance in the region. In spite of this, Japan is embedded in the Asia context on the axis of the Japan-US security alliance. As long as the constitutional constraints, especially the article 9 clause are concerned, the pursuit of independent foreign policy would be limited. Keywords: Foreign Policy, Shinzo Abe, and Japan

Diterima 26 Agustus 2018; Diterima dengan revisi 4 September 2018; Dipublikasikan 1 Desember 2018 2406-9515 (p) / 2528-441X (e) © 2018 Hideaki Shirakata. Dipublikasikan oleh JIAN FIS UNY NATAPRAJA Vol. 6 No. 2, Desember 2018

INTRODUCTION Japanese territory is as frequent as ever and The incumbent Japanese Prime this is posing a challenge to Japan. Minister (PM), Shinzo Abe, regained the Moreover, in the absence of strong US power after the landslide victory over the leadership in the Asia Pacific, despite election in late 2012. It has not been seen in commitment to rebalancing to Asia by the the Japanese politics that the leader of President Obama and indifference of the Japan is proactively visiting countries incumbent Trump’s policy, the power around the world as frequently as him to imbalance has placed Japan in a difficult strengthen economic cooperation, to deepen situation. the political engagement, and promote This essay aims to examine the cultural exchanges. The negative political evolving Prime Minister Abe’s security image in the Japanese premiership due to diplomacy responsive to changes in the yearly routine of changes in the leadership security environment surrounding Japan: since 2006, has transformed into a stable, The decline of the US presence in Asia and strong and active leadership. It has been China’s rise. These factors are selected observed that the dramatic shift in the because Japan tends to gear up the engine security environment surrounding Japan when Tokyo encounters threats from due to the China’s economic and military external powers. The diplomacy of rise, unstable North Korea’s regime, and the proactive contribution to peace originates decline in American presence in the Asia from these external factors and the pursuit Pacific Region is striking nowadays. It is of the policy has been initiated by the leader true that in terms of economic power Japan of Japan to mitigate the situation. This has played crucial roles in the Asia Pacific essay is organized as follows: In the first in provision of aid, humanitarian assistance, section, it gives explanation of external technical support and its influence has been factors of China’s growing influence and substantial; however, in the wake of the the US ambiguity in Asia. In the first part China’s incredible economic progress as of second section, the changes in the well as development of military domestic politics, policies, and measures capabilities, the power balance in the region will be addressed while in the second part, can be strikingly observed, which uncertain Abe’s proactive diplomacy is examined. outcomes could be expected. The intrusion Based on the analysis from both parts, the by the Chinese navy or air force into the conclusion will be derived.

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METHOD 1) US’s presence in Asia The research methodology of this The President Obama’s initial Asian paper involves the use of primary and policy had given China opportunities to secondary sources. The primary sources are leverage over the region and the presence of obtained from Cabinet Office of Japan, the US in the region had dwindled. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Washington’s security role in Asia became Defence. The secondary sources are derived ambiguous because the economic interest from existing literatures, journals, books, outweighed security interest. Obama (2009) and online news articles. Based on these stated at the U.S/China strategic and sources, the essay discusses Prime Minister economic dialogue that the US and China Abe’s shift in the security policies and share mutual interests wherein emphasis diplomacy. was on the economic cooperation, nuclear . weapon problems, and transnational threats, RESULT AND DISCUSSION which are advanced by cooperation. In his External Threat to Japan early tenure, it was clear that his reluctance Japan is a country whose domestic to express negative view on Chinese such politics has been fluctuated from external as human right violation, suppression of shock. The modern Japan started from the ethnic minorities, and political opponent response to the arrival of black ship by was evident. It seems that the US foreign Thomas Perry in 1853. Due to the policy towards China was emphasized on economic sanctions on natural resources, the economic cooperation to gain the access the government decided to expand to the Chinese market. It can be analysed movement towards Southeast Asia and that soft China policy stemmed from moved onto the Pacific War. The current economic opportunity resulted in the shift in the policy could be also explained China’s expansionism behaviour in Asia. from the external shocks such as relative For example, one of the Chinese military decline of the US presence in the Asia and officer offered to a top US Admiral to halve Chinese economic and military strengthen. the Pacific Ocean between America and These two factors will be discussed in this China (Pubby, 2009). The China’s aim is to section. exclude American’s influence in this Asia Pacific so that Beijing dominates the region economically and militarily. Gordon (2012)

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reported that as China’s interest is US counterpart. Also, his “Yuai” diplomacy increasing, the degree of US influence is (fraternity diplomacy) that is based on the declining. US’s influence was substantial in Constructivist’s view of values, norms, and the past, but it is not the case in the current cultures has hints that the US is not as period. Moreover, the announcement by the important partner as used to be because his Obama (2013) “we should not be the vison to establish the East Asian world's policeman” has also significant Community is exclusion of the United implication to China although this speech States. DPJ’s policy of exclusion of the US aimed at the Syrian crisis on the issue of from regional community, indecision over military intervention. Towards end of his relocation of the military based, and less tenure, the President Obama has committed dependence on the US had led to the to Asia as “pivot to Asia”; however, it uncertainty in the region (Easley, 2017). It appears that his action was rather late. can be said that the decline of the US During his appeasement period, China’s presence in the Asia is due to the Obama’s militarization of islands and artificial isles unwillingness to commit to this region and in the South China Sea (SCS) are surging Japan’s domestic political fiasco. Although and tensions are raising without the US Obama modified the its policy later to military presence. These two statements, counterbalance the China’s expansionism, which Obama announced, have significant Beijing has gradually made a progress in implication for China and countries the islands in the SCS. PM Abe’s concern. commitment to strengthen the bilateral Furthermore, the Japan’s political relationship with America is attributed to turmoil during Democratic Party of Japan the fact that weakened security ties between (DPJ) is also a cause of decline of the US Tokyo and the Washington under DPJ’s presence. Although the strong Japan and rule, which gave leeway to China to US security alliance contributed to the develop strategies and to expand influence stability and security in this region, in Asia. politicians from DPJ did not comprehend 2) China’s rise how important this alliance is. The Prime Understanding China’s recent Minister Hatoyama’s fragile leadership and transformation as a second largest economy ambiguity over relocation of US military in GDP term, its growing military base in Okinawa fuelled mistrust with the expenditure to build up the latest military

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capabilities, and expansion of economic obedience to the central government. In advantages in the international order are of order to fulfil this aim, Chinese initiative importance. Zhang (2015) argues the can be observed in many areas; firstly, the Japan’s anxiety is resulting from the fact establishment of the Asian Infrastructure that China became the second largest Investment Bank (AIIB) is one of the areas economy in the world, Beijing has been that Beijing is aiming to play a leading role increased defence budget year by year, and in China-led system. Secondly, the new she shows strong ambition over territorial economic strategy called “One Belt, One disputes in Diaoyu/Senkaku islands. China Road” policy is announced to increase the has improved its economic progress since Chinese presence in Asia, Central Asia, and the introduction of opening up policies by Eastern Europe. The Silk Road Project, Den Xiao Ping. When China was in the which is complemented by the fund from process of progress, assertiveness or AIIB, is vital economic project to aggression was seldom seen. It could be consolidate China’s political and economic said that increased economic power has power in the international society so that given the tremendous confidence. Also, it she could build the Beijing-led international can be analysed that hosting the Olympic order. game in 2008 was an entrance to become a As mentioned earlier, China gained matured economic nation. confidence from its increasing influence It can be said that Beijing’s aim is to outside of the world and this led to regain the Sino-centric system in Asia like aggressive behaviour against Japan in the they used to dominate the East Asia and issue of territorial or history in the past. It part of Southeast Asia until defeat in the has reported that territorial intrusion into Opium War in the 19th century. BBC (2013) Japanese airspace has increased sharply. reported that Xi’s speech on China’s dream According to the Ministry of Defense was “strive to achieve the Chinese dream of (2017), the figure for scramble by the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”. Japanese air force hiked to 851 out of 1168 Xi’s speech seems to imply that great in total. This figure has quintupled in 2016 rejuvenation is to bounce back to the in comparison with 5 years ago. Needless to Chinese dynastic system with the strong say, the incursion into the territorial water military army, with dominating cultural by Chinese vessels near Senkaku/Diaoyu influence towards peripheries’ states and islands has dramatically increased from 2 in

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2011 to 131 in 2016 (MOFA, 2017 a). It is threat from external factors examined true that intrusion into territorial water above. The external factors have devised dramatically increased since the the security policy of Japan. Domestic nationalization of the Senkaku/Diaoyu politics and controversial changes are to be islands in 2012 by the Democratic Party of discussed in the following. Japan (DPJ). It appears that China takes a Domestic Politics threatening measure so as to win the Despite a short-term tenure and concession from Tokyo. In the past, it may weak political figure in his first term as PM, withdraw concession from Japan; however, Abe has regained the popularity in his unlike predecessors, Abe is determined to second term. An opinion poll conducted by take different approach to protect national the NHK (2017), the national public interest of Japan. Abe’s diplomacy has broadcasting, reveals that public supports differed from predecessors’ government Abe’s cabinet at roughly 50 % although and this will be discussed in the following approval rating plumped in 2015 when sections. controversial national security bill was Changes in The Internal Policy debated. One of the main explanations of The national diet passed the this could be resulted from external threats Security Bill in 2015 after the controversial such as China’s aggressiveness, North debates and stream rolling of the law, Korea’s reckless act, and South Korea’s which angered the certain public and insincerity on the so- called comfort women opposition parties. Under the new security issue. Nagy (2017) claims that Abe law, there are mainly three points to be demonstrated the China card effectively discussed. Firstly, greater role of the Self- like former PM Koizumi so that he could defence forces in overseas is expected if centralize the power in the domestic conditions are met. Secondly, limited politics. Increase in the party and public collective defence will be allowed to support are related to the tough stance exercise if conditions are in scope of the against countries mentioned above. It can new guideline. Lastly, relaxation on transfer be said that the hard-liner policy against of defence equipment and technology to foreign nations would be contributable to overseas countries introduced in the Abe the increase in the approval rating. As Cabinet. It could be argued that these external threats are linked to the national changes are made to contest the emerging security problems, inflaming nationalism is

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rather easier way to gain public support surrounding Japan has become tense in because opposition parties are unable to recent years, urgent response to secure the oppose it and public in general support the lives and peaceful livelihood of the view. This strategy is generally carried out Japanese people is undoubtedly a necessity. by the Chinese authority when the Under the existing legislation frameworks, Communist Party intentionally organized even the Japanese allies, for example, the the demonstration or rallies against Japan United States attempts to rescue Japanese over historical issues. Abe’s tough posture people under the attack from invaders, the against North Kore’s attempt of missile and Japanese self-defence forces are not able to nuclear experiments and China’s aggressive fight back for the United States. The US- behaviour in the Japanese territorial water is Japan security alliance is said to be strongly applauded. Also, as for South unilateral agreement although Japan offers Korea’s case, under the Abe government, lands for US military bases and financial Japan has endeavoured to make a progress support. Under the conflict situation, it is on the comfort women issue and reached the US military officer to sacrifice on the conclusion with the Government of behalf of Japanese citizens under the South Korea and announcement of “the current framework. Abe’s cabinet adopted issue is resolved finally and irreversibly” the re-interpretation of the Constitution in was made (MOFA, 2015). It could be order to handle the unforeseen situation. It argued that the stability in the domestic is argued that even though the way the politics stems from the centralization of the government interprets the constitution is power in response to the external factors revised, the Constitution still limits the and Abe has proved that his reaction to each exercise of the Japanese military power. case have produced positive outcomes so Strong opposition voices exist in domestic far. Japan against the collective defence. An Reinterpretation of The Constitution opinion poll conducted by Nikkei (2014) The decision by the Japanese showed that 51% of the people participated Cabinet to make Constitutional disagree with the exercise of the collective reinterpretation and legislature of national defence right while 28% responded as security bill are one of the key strategies in agree. It could be said that the fear of being Abe’s police. As Abe (Cabinet Office, forcefully involved in the war of America 2014) stated the international environment may be one of the reasons that public

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opinion showed the negative outcomes. Australia, India, the UK and ASEAN Although the general public is not in favour (Nakanishi, 2016). It is observed that this is of the collective defence, Nakanishi (2015) a major transformation in the Japanese and Lee (2015) observed that security diplomacy since Tokyo has not reinterpretation of the Constitution is the encouraged to export weapons to third turning point for Japanese security and countries except America. However, this defence, which might take actions if would allow Tokyo to export military required. Although, the clear guideline such equipment or conduct a joint development as a grave threat to Japanese people’s lives, of the defence equipment with countries happiness, and survival in order to exercise interested. The lease of TC-90 training the right of collective defence is set, it plane to the Philippine as well as donation could be said that the reinterpretation of the of the patrol vessels to Hanoi are one of the Constitution is a great achievement for Abe examples (Jain, 2017). cabinet to show seriousness of Japan’s Also, the official development attitude against external parties. The assistance charter was modified so that reinterpretation of the constitution has grants to be applicable to the training and surely positive impact on security strategy equipment for coastguard operation and as the surrounding situation in recent years disaster relief of nations (Easley, 2017). remains unstable and uncertainty. Despite the fact that the objective of the Relaxation on The Transfer of Defence relaxation of the arms export is further Equipment and Technology defence and security cooperation in order to Apart from the reinterpretation of minimize the risks, the general public in the Constitution and legislature of national Japan may come to take this as an security bill, another distinctive acceleration of being merchant of death. achievement in the Abe’s government is the Providing military related equipment to relaxation on the transfer of defence third countries mean that Japan is indirectly equipment and technology. Abe’s involving in the conflicts or war to some government has adopted the three principles extent because recipient nations would use on the arms export which allows Japan to the weapons manufactured in Japan. pursue further security and defence According to the opinion survey, 71% of cooperation not only specifically the United the Japanese people showed the negative States but also other countries such as view on relaxation of defence equipment

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(Sakurai 2014). It makes sense that any amendments on the constitution on a basis military related policies would be taken as of condition of the country as well as the negative perspectives in Japan because of preparation of the armament to protect peaceful posture and peace addicted mind freedom of the people and to maintain the set are widespread. The peace-addicted world peace and independence of the states mind that has nurtured over the course of (LDP 1955). It can be analysed that Abe’s seven decades would react to any moves proactive contribution to the peace that may be associated to the militaristic diplomacy departed from not only the movement although transferring defence changes of geopolitical situation in Asia but possessions would not lead to wars also the party’s founding ideal and general immediately. This mind or the way people principles. His political ideology come enjoy the peace should be encouraged due along with the LDP principle, which is to the fact that the Japanese has enjoyed interpreted as nationalistic ideology. “Peace” in the domestic society since the His diplomatic posture of proactive end of the Pacific War; however, it should peace based on the common values such as be noted that situation in Asia has also freedom of speech, democracy, human transformed since the end of war. right, and rule of law are the key features in Proactive Peace and Shared Value his diplomacy. The proposal of establishing Diplomacy the security diamond amongst Australia, The pursuit of the progressive India, Japan and the United States is a policy changes implemented by Abe’s reflection of this value and sign of counter- government could be resulted from the measurement of the growing influence of America’s unclear appeasement policy China in East Asian and SCS (Abe, 2012). towards China and the rise of China. It is The security diamond, which is envisioned argued that these policy changes are carried by Abe, is framework of the maritime out because PM is a patriotic politician security alliance to maintain the freedom of whose ultimate goal is to revise the navigation in Indian and the Western American-imposed Japanese Constitution. Pacific Ocean, South China and East China While Abe is the head of the government, Sea. The significance of this maritime he remains as the president of the Liberal alliance is substantial to Japan because Democratic Party (LDP). The one of the securement of the sea route from the party’s founding platforms were to make Middles East to Malacca strait. As the

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natural resource from the Gulf of Persian earlier stated above. Tokyo’s aim is to travels from the Malacca strait to Japan, the promote further international cooperation stability in the sea route is of importance and Japan as a pacifist nation plays a vital since Japan is dependent on the import of role in promotion of peace and stability in the resources. Lee and Lee (2016) argued the international community (MOFA 2017 that the formation of security diamond b). The is interpreted as the message would serve India’s interest because New directed to nations which disrupt the Delhi is in the pursuit of transforming to regional stability by increasing missile maritime nation by development of the capabilities or aim to change the status quo naval capabilities and protection of by force or coercion. The cabinet’s effort to maritime security. The trade value travelled reinterpretation of the constitution, from Indian Ocean account for 70 %. The legislation of security bill, and relaxation of anxiety lies ahead for India if Beijing takes arms equipment is interconnected with the further naval expansion in the Indian vision that Japan steers the ship of the Ocean. Abe (2012) argues that once community built from the common interests China’s militarization in SCE is finalized, it and values. would be hard to enter the South China Sea. Although countries in scope of the It would be interpreted that prior to security diamond share the basic values, not completion of the building of military base, all southeast Asian states do not share the Japan attempts to collaborate with countries same political system or economic in the scope of the security diamond and structure. Countries like Laos, Cambodia strengthen the further relationship with and Myanmar, so-called Chinese satellite Philippine and Vietnam under the name of countries, would not be in favour of the proactive peace diplomacy. This move policy that contain China since they are taken by Abe is welcomed by nations such recipients of a vast amount of financial as Australia, India, and Southeast Asian assistance and infrastructure projects. It is countries wherein China and North Korea true that China’s influence is already oppose it (Lee, 2015). widespread on countries in Mekong region; Moreover, the positive initiative nonetheless, Japan is also attempting to taken by Abe makes strategic preparation promote further economic partnership with for formation of the Japan-led-security Mekong countries. Jiye and Jusheng (2016) community based on the values or interests argued that Japan is seeking a support to

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establish pro-Japan country block in this clause of article 9, it is imperative to seek region. At Mekong-Japan summit in 2016, support from the US and this helps to Japan pledged to provide 200 billion dollars rebalance the uncertain Asia’s power over next 5 years for quality infrastructural balance. As the ruling party won the general project to contribute to the GDP growth and election in 2017 and secured two-thirds in discussion over security matter on SCS and the house of representative, the first step to promotion of regional security based on revise the constitution might be taken over mutual trust and understanding (MOFA, the course of next 4 years. 2016). Although progress may be behind China, Japan’s endeavour to gain CONCLUSION confidence from Mekong countries can be Passive Japanese diplomacy is left clearly seen. Japanese national interest lies behind and Japan puts proactive diplomacy in the Southeast Asia, though, small states forward. This active engagement is not might not show affection that Tokyo usually seen in Japanese politics since expects because these states want to Japan is the country who takes initiative maximize the gain from both parties. Japan- when the nation is being threatened by Mekong regional framework approach external pressure. Green (2014) supports would be effective measures to receive this view that Japan is taking balance of favouritism from Southeast Asian states. power approach in response to external The creation of positive environment is threats. Abe’s hawkish political ideology contributed to the stability of the region and can be explained for the radical shift in this serves for aim of Abe’s value Japanese diplomacy, but it is only one of diplomacy. the factors. The essay has identified the The role of Japan in Asia Pacific has major changes in recent years, which are been clearly increasing since Abe is back in the changes of external surrounding; the the office. As far as Japan is concerned, decline of US presence and the rise of with Japan-US security alliance at the core, China. Obama’s appeasement policy Tokyo takes proactive initiative and plays a towards China in his early tenure has wider role in Asia Pacific in a hope that augmented the expanding assertiveness of formation of a Japan-led-security Chinese naval and air forces in the Asia. community is realized. It goes without This highlights revision of internal security saying that unless Japan revises the pacifist law, amendment on the transferring of

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