Domestic sources of Japan’s foreign and security policy Benjamin James Ascione Crawford School of Public Policy Australian National University A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at The Australian National University February 2019 © Copyright by Benjamin James Ascione 2019 i Declaration I declare that the material contained in this thesis is my own original work and that it contains no material previously published or written by another person except where otherwise acknowledged. Benjamin James Ascione Word count: 99,716 ii Acknowledgements A wise man once told me that he never did anything of value on his own. The completion of this thesis is testament to this advice and the great assistance I have received from many kind people. It is my pleasure to thank them here. First and foremost, this thesis would not have been possible without the incredible advice, support and wise counsel of Professor Peter Drysdale and Dr Shiro Armstrong. I am deeply indebted to them both beyond what words can describe. When I first played basketball with Shiro when I was an undergrad student and he was writing his PhD thesis, and when Shiro recruited me to work with him and Peter at the East Asia Forum, I never could have imagined the amazing academic journey before me that they made possible. I benefited greatly from the advice of Professor Bill Tow and Professor Hugh White. They were generous with their time despite their own busy schedules and their advice has helped improve the text and argument. I was fortunate to receive helpful feedback during a presentation from Dr Amy King and Dr David Envall which has have helped improve the text. My understanding of Japan and Japanese foreign policy issues has been tremendously deepened thanks to my boss and mentor at the Japan Center for International Exchange, Mr Hitoshi Tanaka, and my supervisor during my MA study at Waseda, Professor Chikako Ueki. Thank you for your continuing guidance. I owe a big thank you to the support of the Japan Foundation which enabled me to conduct six months of field work in Tokyo and to Professor Yoshihide Soeya of Keio University for hosting me during this time. I also owe a big thank you to the National Parliamentary Fellowship Program and the offices of Motohisa Furukawa and Takemi Keizo who hosted me during my three months working at the Diet. Thank you to Yusuke Ishihara, Ryosuke Hanada, Yuma Osaki, Giridharan Ramasubramanian and the many other PhD students at ANU who I shared enlightening discussions with. iii Thank you to my friends and family for their support and understanding as I devoted countless hours to writing. Finally, thank you to my darling wife Noriko for your love and support which kept me sane through the writing process. I look forward to the exciting years we share ahead. iv Table of Contents 1. The power of the Japanese right 1 The question 2 Why domestic politics? 3 Why Japan’s right wing? 5 Defining the right wing 10 Ascendance of the right and the road to war (1853-1945) 14 The post-war occupation and transition (1945-1960 15 Eschewing military power (1960-1990) 18 Post-Cold War shifts and incremental reforms (1990-present) 19 Escaping the post-war regime 22 The case studies 24 Significance of the question 27 2. The analytics 30 Realism 32 Neo-realism/normalisation 33 Mercantile realism 34 Post-classical realism 34 Reluctant realism 35 Realist buck passing 36 Attitudinal defensive realism 36 Resentful realism 37 Liberalism 38 Classical economic liberalism 39 Institutional liberalism 39 Constructivism 40 Norm constructivism 41 Relational constructivism 42 Domestic sources of foreign policy 43 The influence process 47 Who decides? 48 Hurdles to influencing decision-makers 50 Mechanisms used by Japan’s right wing 51 Conclusion 54 3. The Yoshida doctrine 57 The three pillars of the Yoshida doctrine 58 Economic reconstruction 58 Light rearmament 62 Judicial oversight 63 Interpreting the Article 9 peace clause 68 The origins of blockades against rearmament 71 The US-Japan alliance 72 The establishment of the Yoshida doctrine: a political compromise 74 4. Post-Cold War incremental reforms 78 The Gulf War (1990-1991) 80 SDF dispatch knocked back 81 v Transport assistance bungled 83 Material and medical contributions 84 Financial contributions underappreciated 85 The SDF minesweeper mission to the Persian Gulf 87 The battle to legalise SDF participation in UN PKOs 87 What are the five principles? 88 How was the law passed? 90 Bolstering the SDF as a good ally 91 First Korean nuclear crisis 91 The Nye Report 92 Defining the SDF’s role supporting the US in the region 92 Komeito support 94 SDF response to 9/11 95 The SDF and the Iraq War 97 Conclusion 100 5. The drive to revise Article 9 103 Pushing open the Article 9 debate 105 Ichiro Ozawa’s Blueprint for a new Japan 105 The Yomiuri Shimbun’s editorial advocacy 106 Nippon Kaigi’s political agenda setting 107 The Liberal Democratic Party’s right-wing factions 110 Shinzo Abe’s constitutional ambitions 112 The first Abe government (2006-2007): laying the groundwork 118 The passage of the constitutional amendments law 119 The establishment of Abe’s Advisory Panel on security 121 Downfall of the first Abe government 122 Article 9 on the backburner 123 The second Abe government (2012-present): the battle for collective self-defence 124 The Advisory Panel on the Reconstruction of the Legal Basis for Security 126 Negotiations with Komeito 130 The debate in the Diet 135 Future revision prospects 137 Conclusion 138 6. A hard line on North Korea 142 Background 133 The Cold War years 145 Normalisation with South Korea 146 The Zainichi community and ‘repatriations’ to North Korea 147 Gathering abduction puzzle pieces 150 Post-Cold War engagement 152 The Kanemaru delegation 153 The first North Korean nuclear crisis 155 Rising domestic constraints, persisting with engagement 157 Mounting abduction evidence 157 More delegations and the Taepodong shock 158 Rice aid corruption? 160 Koizumi and Tanaka’s push for a grand bargain 161 Making a deal 161 vi The Japan-DPRK Pyongyang Declaration 162 The first Japan-DPRK summit 164 Getting the abductees back 165 The abduction issue: Japan’s North Korea policy hijacked 166 The politicization of the abduction issue 167 Media saturation 169 Engagement as taboo 171 Policy constrained 172 Sanctions preparation 173 The second Japan-DPRK summit and getting the family members back 175 DNA disputes 177 Imposing sanctions 179 Japanese obstructionism in the Six Party Talks 183 The Stockholm Agreement 185 Recasting Japan as the victim and revising Article 9 187 Conclusion 189 7. The Senkaku Islands and a rising China 196 Background 198 Shelving the dispute 200 Taiwan tensions subsumed 201 A ‘tacit understanding’ with China 203 Sabotage efforts by LDP right-wingers 204 Tacit understanding solidified 207 Dual policy and restraint 209 The 2008 East China Sea agreement 213 The 2010 Senkaku shock 214 Applying domestic law 214 China’s reaction 216 The DPJ criticised as naïve 217 Was Japan really weak? 220 Japan’s bolstered security policy vis-à-vis China 223 The 2012 nationalisation of the islands 224 Ishihara’s gambit 225 Noda’s reaction and public opinion 226 Hong Kong protestors compound Noda’s woes 227 China’s leadership transition and miscommunication 228 Ishihara’s demands 229 Noda’s rationale for the nationalisation 230 Conclusion 232 8. Conclusion 236 Theoretical findings 240 Empirical findings 241 Links with politicians 242 Narrative building 243 How much influence? 245 Policy implications 248 Limitations and further research 249 Summary of the findings 250 vii List of Tables and Figures Table 1: Japan’s Strategic Options Table 2: A chronology of key events in the passage of the security-related bills Table 3: The SDF’s Legal mandate to use force Table 4 : Japanese issues of concern regarding North Korea Figure 1: Public opinion on Article 9 among Yomiuri readers Figure 2: Japanese issues of concern regarding North Korea (selected items) Figure 3: Newspaper Articles Covering North Korean Abductions Figure 4: Japanese public opinion on the provision of energy by Japan to North Korea under the SPT’s 2007 ‘Initial Actions’ agreement Figure 5: Japanese sentiment toward China (1978-2017) Figure 6: Trends in Chinese Government and Other Vessels in the Waters Surrounding the Senkaku Islands viii Acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank AFVKN Association of the Families of Victims Kidnapped by North Korea AOSS Association of Shinto Shrines APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ARF ASEAN Regional Forum ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASDF Air Self-Defense Force ATSML Anti-Terrorism Special Measures Law CCP Chinese Communist Party CDP Constitutional Democratic Party (2017-) CIA Central Intelligence Agency CENTCOM United States Central Command CLB Cabinet Legislation Bureau DFAT Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australia DOD Department of Defense, United States DP Democratic Party (2016-2018) DPJ Democratic Party of Japan (1996-2016) DPRK Democratic Republic of Korea DSP Democratic Socialist Party (1960-1994) EU European Union FEFTCL Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Control Law GDP gross domestic product GSDF Ground Self-Defense Force ICG International Crisis Group JDA Japan Defense Agency (1954-2007) JDP Japan Democratic Party (1954-1955) JINF Japan Institute for National Fundamentals JIP Japan Innovation Party (2014-2016) JSP Japan Socialist Party (1945-1996) KCNA (North) Korean Central News Agency LCPACJ Law Concerning Procedures for Amendments of