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US-China Relations in a Changing Asia-Pacific by TJ Pempel

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US-China Relations in a Changing Asia-Pacific by TJ Pempel BUILDING A REGIONAL ORDER IN EAST ASIA: Community, Competition, Conflict CHU SHULONG EVANS J. R. REVERE YOICHI KATO SUN ZHE YUICHI HOSOYA NOBORU YAMAGUCHI MICHAEL A. MCDEVITT STEPHEN M. YOUNG T. J. PEMPEL March 2016 Our Mission The National Committee on American Foreign Policy (NCAFP) was founded in 1974 by Professor Hans J. Morgenthau and others. It is a nonprofit policy organization dedicated to the resolution of conflicts that threaten U.S. interests. Toward that end, the NCAFP identifies, articulates, and helps advance American foreign policy interests from a nonpartisan perspective within the framework of political realism. American foreign policy interests include: • Preserving and strengthening national security; •Supporting the values and the practice of political, religious, and cultural pluralism; • Advancing human rights; • Addressing non-traditional security challenges such as terrorism, cyber security and climate change; • Curbing the proliferation of nuclear and other unconventional weapons; and • Promoting an open and global economy. The NCAFP fulfills its mission through Track I½ and Track II diplomacy. These closed-door and off-the-record conferences provide opportunities for senior U.S. and foreign officials, subject experts, and scholars to engage in discussions designed to defuse conflict, build confidence, and resolve problems. Believing that an informed public is vital to a democratic society, the National Committee offers educational programs and issues a variety of publications that address security challenges facing the United States. Critical assistance for this volume was provided by Ms. Rorry Daniels, Associate Project Director of the NCAFP’s Forum on Asia-Pacific Security (FAPS); Ms. Juliet Lee, Project Assistant, FAPS; and Mr. Jacob Rusoff, NCAFP Intern. The NCAFP is grateful to the following organizations for their support of this volume: Carnegie Corporation of New York The Henry Luce Foundation The John D. & Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation Mutual of America Contents Introduction. 1 Donald S. Zagoria Articles U.S. Policy and East Asian Security: Challenge and Response . 4 Evans J.R. Revere U.S.-China Relations. 18 Stephen M. Young Thucydides (Clap) Trap: U.S.-China Relations in a Changing Asia-Pacific . .. 30 T. J. Pempel Japan’s 'Coping' Diplomacy, Challenged by Changing World Order . 36 Gerald L. Curtis (interviewed by Yoichi Kato) The South China Sea: Island Building and Evolving U.S. Policy. 44 Michael A. McDevitt China’s Perception and Policy about North Korea . 58 Chu Shulong Building a Security Community in Asia-Pacific Region: Can China Contribute? . .66 Sun Zhe The Sino-Japanese Relationship and its Implications for Regional Security in East Asia . 77 Noboru Yamaguchi Japan's New Security Legislation: What Does this Mean for East Asian Security? . 88 Yuichi Hosoya Appendices Asia’s Great Powers and Regional Stability: A New Trilateral Dynamic between the United States, Japan and China . .96 Sheila A. Smith 2015 Visit to Taipei, Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo . 105 Donald S. Zagoria Introduction by Donald S. Zagoria “(Any system of order) bases itself on two components: a set of commonly accepted rules that define the limits of permissible action and a balance of power that enforces restraint where rules break down, preventing one political unit from subjugating all others. A consensus on the legitimacy of existing arrangements does not—now or in the past—foreclose competitions or confrontations, but it helps ensure that they will occur as adjustments within the existing order rather than as fundamental challenges to it. A balance of forces in itself does not secure peace, but if thoughtfully assembled and invoked, it can limit the scope and frequency of fundamental challenges and curtail their chance of succeeding when they do occur.” The Honorable Henry A. Kissinger, World Order, Penguin Books, 2014, p.9 Three Potential Scenarios for East Asia here are three broad divergent scenarios at work in East Asian international relations T today and each suggest different outcomes. A Pacific Community is the most hopeful scenario, though not without some inevitable continuing challenges and tensions. In this vision, which is that of Henry Kissinger and many others, the major powers, including the United States, China and Japan, work actively together to build a cooperative Pacific Community. They do this by developing a common set of rules and building a sustainable power equilibrium—as the quotation above suggests. The second scenario is that of competition between the United States and China. This is what many would argue is the existing situation. It is a mix of some cooperation, some tensions and a competition for regional influence. Although this situation is sustainable for a while, tensions are rising and could eventually lead to conflict. The third scenario is outright conflict, e.g. on the Korean Peninsula, in the South China Sea, or in the Taiwan Strait, with or without a direct U.S.-China clash. Essays The essays in this volume offer a broad and diverse analysis of the conflicting interests and forces at work in East Asia today and they offer a number of policy recommendations for developing a more cooperative relationship among the key actors. Unless policymakers take more active steps towards developing an East Asian community, the trends towards competition, confrontation and conflict are likely to grow. 1 The first five essays are by Americans. Evans Revere, a former high-ranking State Department official, ranges over the major challenges he sees for U.S. policy with a particular focus on the rise of China and North Korea's nuclear weapons program. With regard to China, Revere senses “deep anxiety” among China's neighbors, as well as in the United States, because the “intentions and ambitions of a strong, revitalized and militarily powerful China remain unclear....” The “core task” in responding to this challenge is “how to accommodate China's determination to play a greater role while simultaneously reassuring allies and partners that Beijing will not be allowed to become the regional hegemon.” With regard to North Korea, Revere recommends stronger sanctions, enhanced deterrence and a variety of other steps while simultaneously placing a “renewed emphasis on dialogue” in order to give the North Koreans an “off-ramp” from present policies. Stephen Young, a retired U.S. diplomat, focuses on the broad range of issues involved in U.S.- China relations: bilateral relations, the Korean Peninsula, territorial disputes between China and its neighbors, freedom of navigation, human rights, Taiwan and Hong Kong. He provides a rich list of policy recommendations. T. J. Pempel, a political scientist at the University of California, Berkeley, explains why power transition theory, with its emphasis on the “Thucydides Trap” and likely conflict between a rising and an established power, is not the correct paradigm for understanding current U.S.- China relations. Pempel outlines five major factors which undermine the applicability of this theory to U.S.-China relations and argues that conflict between the two powers is not inevitable so long as each side does not “impute the worst intentions to one another....” Gerald Curtis, a Japan specialist at Columbia University, in an interview with Japanese journalist Yoichi Kato, offers sage advice both on U.S.-Japan relations and on how the U.S., Japan and other countries in East Asia should deal with China. They should “engage China and give it a larger stake in the governance of the international system while at the same time balancing against it in order to maintain a political equilibrium.” Michael McDevitt, a retired admiral at the Center for Naval Analyses, provides a comprehensive and nuanced analysis of China's island building in the South China Sea and the U.S. reaction to it. He urges the U.S. to “keep the South China Sea in perspective” and to recognize that it is not the “central strategic element” in the overall U.S.-China relationship. At the same time, the U.S. should remain sensitive to the claims of the littoral states and assist them in balancing China. Professor Chu Shulong, a Chinese academic at Tsinghua University, provides a comprehensive analysis of China's interests and policies vis-a-vis North Korea and he explains why Beijing is not in line with current U.S. and ROK policy. Professor Sun Zhe, Adjunct Senior Research Scholar & Co-Director of the China Initiative at the School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, asks how China can contribute to the building of a “security community” in the Asia-Pacific region and he offers a number of thoughtful suggestions. Noboru Yamaguchi, a retired Lieutenant General in the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, and now a Professor at the International University of Japan, assesses Japan-China relations. After a broad and comprehensive overview of the recent downturn in these relations, he offers five policy recommendations for developing a more constructive Japan-China relationship. 2 Yuichi Hosoya, Professor of Law at Keio University, assesses Japan's new security legislation and concludes that its approach remains “incrementalist” and that there is no drastic change to its traditional “pacifist” trajectory. In sum, as a recent NCAFP trip report concluded, the United States, China and Japan are still far from establishing a Pacific Community and the complex relationship among the three great powers will need to be properly managed over the years ahead if regional stability is to be maintained. 3 U.S. Policy and East Asian Security: Challenge and Response by Evans J.R. Revere ____________________________________________________________ Note: This article is based on a presentation given by Evans J.R. Revere at the 4th Korea Research Institute for National Strategy-Brookings Joint Conference on “Policy Directions of the ROK and the U.S. for Regional Stability in East Asia” in Seoul, Korea on January 25, 2016. It is also published online by The Brookings Institution and is available at http://www.brookings.edu/research/presentations/2016/01/25-policy-and-east-asian- security-revere.
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