The UK and Japan Forging a Global and Proactive Partnership Final Report of the UK–Japan Global Seminar Series

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The UK and Japan Forging a Global and Proactive Partnership Final Report of the UK–Japan Global Seminar Series Chatham House Report Edited by John Nilsson-Wright The UK and Japan Forging a Global and Proactive Partnership Final report of the UK–Japan Global Seminar series #CHUKJapan Chatham House Report Edited by John Nilsson-Wright Asia-Pacific Programme | May 2019 The UK and Japan Forging a Global and Proactive Partnership Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, is a world-leading policy institute based in London. Our mission is to help governments and societies build a sustainably secure, prosperous and just world. The Royal Institute of International Affairs Chatham House 10 St James’s Square London SW1Y 4LE T: +44 (0) 20 7957 5700 F: + 44 (0) 20 7957 5710 www.chathamhouse.org Charity Registration No. 208223 Copyright © The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2019 Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, does not express opinions of its own. The opinions expressed in this publication are the responsibility of the author(s). All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical including photocopying, recording or any information storage or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the copyright holder. Please direct all enquiries to the publishers. ISBN 978 1 78413 302 3 A catalogue record for this title is available from the British Library. Printed and bound in Great Britain. This publication is printed on FSC-certified paper. Typeset by Soapbox, www.soapbox.co.uk Cover image: Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reviews an honour guard at the Foreign & Commonwealth Office in London before his meeting with UK Prime Minister Theresa May on 10 January 2019. Copyright © Getty Images/The Asahi Shimbun ii | Chatham House #CHUKJapan Contents Preface iv Executive Summary v 1 Prospects for the UK and Japan as International Actors and Partners 1 2 Institutional Innovation: Strategy and Policymaking for National Security 15 3 Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics: The Populist Wave and the Impact of Public Opinion in Japan and the UK 30 4 Japan’s Response to Globalization and the Prospects for Closer Cooperation with the UK 45 5 Regionalism in Retreat? The UK’s post-Brexit Relationship with Europe, and Japan’s Asian Ambitions 62 6 Defending the Liberal International Order: The UK–Japan Partnership in an Uncertain World 73 7 Soft-power Alliance: The UK and Japan 84 8 Strengthening the UK–Japan Partnership for Global Peace and Stability 91 9 Looking Ahead: Political Transitions and Domestic Political Uncertainty 101 Acronyms and Abbreviations 110 About the Authors 112 Acknowledgments 115 UK–Japan Global Seminar Series: Past Events and Publications 116 About the UK–Japan Global Seminar Series 119 iii | Chatham House #CHUKJapan The UK and Japan: Forging a Global and Proactive Partnership Preface Preface Yohei Sasakawa, Chairman, The Nippon Foundation The Nippon Foundation, together with The Great Britain Sasakawa Foundation, has been engaged in a wide range of activities to promote exchange between the UK and Japan. Intellectual and cultural exchange has focused on developing leaders with the capacity to promote the bilateral relationship and address common challenges. Chatham House is a world-leading source of independent analysis, informed debate and influential ideas on how to build a prosperous and secure world for all. The institute has long had strong ties in Europe and Japan, and its work on the latter aims to promote understanding of Japan’s economic, political and social development, and its impact upon the world. In the early years of the 21st century the world witnessed rapid change and instability. The issues were complex, and went beyond the scope of Japan and the UK alone. We began to see a need for a forum where experts in both Japan and the UK could come together to analyse and understand not just bilateral but also global issues from a comprehensive perspective, and to consider how the two countries could cooperate and contribute ideas in this broader framework. In this context, the three organizations embarked on a project to examine global issues of shared concern, ranging from international affairs and trade to social issues. Together, we initiated the UK–Japan Global Seminar series in 2013 as a forum to discuss these issues, and possible solutions, over a period of five years. Chatham House was ideally placed to host this series of conferences and to disseminate the resulting publications through its global networks. A total of five seminars were held between 2013 and the end of 2017. In the process, the UK–Japan Global Seminar evolved into a stimulating forum where policy experts, researchers and leaders came together to share their knowledge and experience. This final report is the culmination of the UK–Japan Global Seminar series, bringing together contributions from Japanese and UK authors who participated in the discussions in 2013–17. It is our hope that the report will help stimulate a deeper interest in, and further understanding of, the key international challenges among policymakers, researchers, the media and the general public. I would like to express my deep appreciation to all the experts and analysts who took part in the seminar series for their cutting-edge research on pressing global issues, and to those who have contributed articles to this final report, which will serve as the legacy of the series. In closing, let me extend my heartfelt gratitude to everyone at Chatham House, and especially the institute’s Director, Dr Robin Niblett, and to The Great Britain Sasakawa Foundation for their help in realizing the UK–Japan Global Seminar series and producing the final report. I hope that all of you will continue your important work in the future. iv | Chatham House #CHUKJapan The UK and Japan: Forging a Global and Proactive Partnership Executive Summary Executive Summary John Nilsson-Wright In 2013, Chatham House and The Nippon Foundation launched an ambitious five- year project to examine bilateral relations between the UK and Japan. The resulting UK–Japan Global Seminar series aimed to explore ways in which the two countries can deepen and expand their cooperation to address a number of pressing regional and global challenges. The focus of this partnership has been a series of high-profile annual conferences, alternating between London and Tokyo, at which leading academics, politicians, journalists and representatives from business and the non-profit sector have exchanged views on the roles of the two countries and considered the specific opportunities and challenges faced by the UK and Japanese governments. In addition to the annual conferences, the project convened numerous smaller workshops and discussion seminars (funded in part by The Great Britain Sasakawa Foundation), and produced a series of podcasts and audio and video interviews, as well as conference reports and research publications (see https://www.chathamhouse.org/about/ structure/asia-pacific-programme/uk-japan-global-seminar-series). This report represents the culmination of the project. It brings together a select number of conference participants from both countries to take stock of the current bilateral relationship, and to offer their personal views on how best to enhance and expand mutual cooperation in the immediate future. The need for such a perspective is especially important today, given the serious challenges that both countries are facing. At a global level, the critical challenges to the rules-based international order are a source of acute concern to policymakers in both Tokyo and London – in the form of a more explicitly unilateral and transactional US under President Donald Trump, the increased assertiveness of Russia and China, or the spread of authoritarian and populist political movements that threaten to undermine support for democratic values. Regionally, too, there are a host of equally pressing challenges. In Europe, the UK’s decision to leave the European Union as a result of the referendum in June 2016 has had a profound impact, raising important questions about the character and resilience of the EU and the nature and durability of the UK’s broader international engagement. The uncertainty surrounding outgoing Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May’s negotiation of a withdrawal agreement with the other 27 EU members has created profound concern in Japan over how best to manage its substantial trade and investment commitments in the UK. Following May’s resignation announcement on 24 May, this uncertainty has increased given the ensuing leadership contest within the Conservative Party, and what impact this will have on the prospects of the UK government realizing its commitment to deliver Brexit. Moreover, Brexit has raised important questions about the integrity of the UK, given the practical difficulties of avoiding a return to a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic v | Chatham House #CHUKJapan The UK and Japan: Forging a Global and Proactive Partnership Executive Summary of Ireland should the UK choose not to remain in a customs union in any future deal with the EU, or in the event that it leaves the EU without a deal. The integrity and stability of nation states have also come under threat elsewhere in Europe for reasons independent of the Brexit decision. For example, Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, and the continuing presence of Russian-backed separatists in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, have amplified fears of the fragmentation of once stable
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