Greek capitalism at a critical point Stamatis Karayannopoulos 2 October 2013 Greek capitalism continues to be the weak link of the Eurozone as it is still under the “intensive care” of the EU support mechanisms for the fourth consecutive year and is in recession for the sixth consecutive year. Overall GDP decline since the crisis began will reach 25% by the end of 2013 and unemployment will reach 30%. According to the Institute of Labour (INE) of the Greek General Greek General Confederation of Labour (GSEE) it will take at least 20 years to return to the pre-crisis levels! With growing rage, millions of workers, pensioners, small traders and young people who have been crushed by the austerity measures of the Memorandum are discovering what a big deception the so-called “rescue” of the country by the troika is. In reality it is a rescue of the speculators who hold the Greek debt and at the same time an attempt to avoid a domino effect of bankruptcies that could lead to the end of the Eurozone. In 2009 the Greek debt had reached 298.5 billion Euros and 128.9% of GDP. By the end of 2013, after three and a half years of such “rescue”, the debt will be 330 billion Euros and 178.5% of GDP. Up to June of this year, Greece had received 219 billion Euros from the Troika. Only 7.6 billion of this money went to towards alleviating the deficit, the rest was spent on recapitalising the banks and paying off part of the debt and the interest on the debt. The shocking fact that the actual amount that went on interest is 48.171 billion Euros which represents two thirds of the amount that went to pay off debts, is sufficient to define this as “usurious”. Also indicative of the reactionary nature of this attempt to pay off this usurious debt is the fact that the amount that has been spent on interest is equivalent to the value of the losses in GDP. In other words, everything that has been lost in the production of wealth in the country during the memorandum era – which for the working class translates into job los ses and salary reductions, which means sweat, blood and tears – has been pocketed by the loan sharks in the payment of interest. Cancelling the debt requires a program to overthrow capitalism Every attempt to pay off this unbearable usurious debt requires new cuts in wages, pensions, benefits and social spending, and new layoffs. Not a single progressive step is possible in Greek society and no kind of beneficial growth can come about if the debt is not cancelled altogether, if the benefits of the everyday people are not put above the benefits of the loan sharks. However, it is not only the loan sharks that benefit from the paying off of the debt, but all sections of the Greek and foreign capitalists that are connected with this debt through their business ventures are also benefitting or they are simply benefiting in various ways from the attacks on the working class. Consequently, the cancellation of the debt means naturally a declaration of war on capitalism, and it can be won solely via the establishmen t of a centralised and democratically planned nationalised economy. The fact that such a socialist programme is missing from the armoury of both of the leading factions within SYRIZA is a historic irresponsibility on the part of these leaders. Instead the y present either a right -wing or left - wing version of reformist populism, with one side talking about paying off a part of the debt while trying to reconstruct a “social state” within capitalism, and the other side talking about the cancellation of the debt without overthrowing capitalism. It really makes you wonder how the supporters of such utopian policies within the leadership of SYRIZA, instead of explaining to the workers how they intend to manage such a combination of the cancellation of the debt and the building of a “social state” within capitalism, dare to call unrealistic and ill-timed the revolutionary socialist programme that is supported by the Communist Tendency of SYRIZA. Clearly for these comrades, the “strategic” goal of socialism will be relevant only after the mass extermination of our class through hunger and misery… The illusion of the German "haircut" and the myth of the primary surplus This autumn started in a painful way for the government. The German government was clear that there is not going to be another “haircut” of the Greek debt. At the same time, the statement from a leading member of SPD that the funding gap of the country up to 2020 will be 77 billion Euros, together with the demand of the president of the German industrial ists to place the assets of the Greek state under the control of its creditors, promises new harsher memoranda and even greater submission to the demands of the creditors. In contrast with the hope of the Greek bourgeoisie that there would be a “political solution” for the Greek debt after the German elections, the troika confirms that until the spring of 2014 there will be no new developments. This tough stance has caused nervousness among the Greek bourgeoisie who understands that if a solution to the funding is not found quickly they will not be able to justify the new measures for which they have already made a commitment to the troika, especially at this moment when their government is so fragile and has to deal with a rising working class movement. It is not a coincidence that in the camp of the bourgeoisie there are some who have started raising the idea – as a bargaining tool – that a return to the drachma should also be put on the table (such as the articles of N. Chatzinikolaou on “Real News”). At present, the government is trying to strengthen its position inside the country as well as abroad, by cooking the statistics as to present the desired primary surplus. It went so far as to announce for the first seven months of the year, a primary surplus of 2.6 billion Euros, not including, however, in the official calculations the amount of 9.35 billion Euros which constitutes all kinds of state debts after the given drastic cuts of the planned programme of public investment. The primary surplus, according to government propaganda, is supposedly going to reduce the debt and lead the country back to the markets and growth. Nothing of all this is going to happen. The government, according to the statements of the finance minister on 2nd September, is antic ipating a primary surplus of 1.1 billion Euros for 2013. What they have not said, however, is that this primary surplus should cover all the public spending and the paying off of the interest in such a way that this surplus helps in the reduction of the debt. For 2013 the paying off of the interest alone is 6.4 billion Euros, while the amount going towards amortization is 52.9 billion Euros. Consequently, since the interest payments will be much more than the primary surplus, the debt will not decrease but will actually increase. In order for the primary surplus to progressively reduce the debt an average annual growth rate of 5% would required for the next 20 years, such that through the tax revenues, the primary surplus will outweigh the interest payments. Such a development, however, can only exist in the dreams of the Greek bourgeoisie. Consequently, the government in order to attend to the debt only has one road, that of new and tougher austerity measures. The very much advertised privatization progra mme, which had as an initial goal to bring in 50 billion Euros, later revised down to 15 billion Euros, has only brought in 850 million approximately, including everything that was gained by the scandalous sale of OPAP (the national lottery). Therefore the only thing left for this government, after the privatization-give away of public assets like OPAP and the reduction of salaries and pensions, is to start closing down businesses, organizations and services by making massive lay-offs. The first step in this direction was ERT (the public broadcaster), with the defence industry (LARKO, EAS, EAB, ELBO) to follow and of course through the closure of public schools, hospitals and city councils. General political strike is only way to bring down the government The Samaras-Venizelos coalition will not fall easily. The Greek bourgeoisie do not want to go to elections before they manage to find a solution to the funding gap. This means that the coalition government has to stay in power until the spring of 2014, when the discussions with the Troika will commence again. If during this period there is a parliamentary “accident” in the passing of a bill, then the ruling class will call on the help of DIMAR (the Democratic Left who have already shown their willingness to collaborate in the past), their very own “Independent Greeks” and, of course – as was revealed by the recent public statement of the “infamous” bourgeois journalist Babi Papadimitriou – the wild dogs of the system, the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn. Their primary concern will be to find a solution within the present parliament. This means that the militant working masses must bring down this government. [Note: this was written before Golden Dawn members were involved in the killing of Pavlos Fyssas, thus rendering this option unfeasible in the immediate period ahead]. The call for “subversion” that is often raised as an abstract formula by the labour and left leaders, for the working class constitutes the only way of survival.