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6.0 CUMULATIVE EFFECTS ASSESSMENT 6.1 Other Projects

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6.0 CUMULATIVE EFFECTS ASSESSMENT 6.1 Other Projects VAUGHAN MAINLINE EXPANSION PROJECT 6.0 CUMULATIVE EFFECTS ASSESSMENT This section presents the assessment of cumulative effects; that is, the overall effects on a VC as a result of the predicted likely residual environmental effects of the Project in combination with the likely residual effects from other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable projects and activities. The environmental and socio-economic effects assessment presented in Section 5 provides identification and analysis of the predicted residual effects of the Project. The VCs and associated key indicators with predicted residual effects as a result of the Project were carried forward and considered in the assessment of potential cumulative effects in this section. The presence and likely residual effects from other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable physical activities are predicted based on publicly available information sources and professional judgement. The ultimate outcome of this section is the prediction of likely cumulative effects and the determination of their significance. The steps used to assess cumulative effects are summarized in Section 4.6 of this ESA report. Of the VCs evaluated in the environmental and socio-economic effects assessment (Section 5), residual effects as a result of the Project were not predicted for heritage resources, archaeological resources, navigation and navigation safety, and traditional land and resource use. Consequently, these VCs require no further analysis in the cumulative effects assessment. Residual effects of the Project were identified for all remaining VCs as discussed in Section 5, and these VCs are assessed for potential cumulative effects with other physical activities. Additionally, no adverse environmental or socio-economic effects resulting from the effects of the environment on the Project (including contaminated soils, terrain instability, seismic activity, severe weather, flooding, wildfire, and changing climatic conditions) are predicted, as described in Section 5.22 (Effects of the Environment on the Project). Accordingly, these natural occurrences are not considered further in the assessment of cumulative effects. The study areas used for the assessment of cumulative effects on each VC vary depending on the geographic extent of the residual effects of the Project on each VC. These study areas are generally equivalent to the VC Regional Study Areas (RSAs) or in cases where the Project residual effects were localized in nature, the VC Local Study Areas (LSAs). An exception was made for greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) emissions, which are considered in a provincial and national context, as discussed in Section 6.2.9. Temporal overlap was determined by focusing on past, present, and reasonably foreseeable projects and activities with the potential for their effects to occur during the construction phase of the Project, since this is the phase in which the majority of the residual adverse effects are predicted to occur (Section 5). These effects from past, present, and reasonably foreseeable projects and activities may also overlap with the residual effects of the Project predicted to extend into Project operation. 6.1 Other Projects and Activities The cumulative effects assessment considered past, present, and reasonably foreseeable projects and activities, including previous and ongoing activities, as well as physical activities that are considered certain (i.e., they have received approval, or the proponent has publicly announced its intention to seek the necessary approvals or other authorizations to proceed). In many cases, where projects are in the planning stage, only general locations could be identified for reasonably foreseeable projects and activities and it was therefore not possible to conduct a detailed spatial analysis for the cumulative effects assessment for all VCs. The assessment of cumulative November 2015 Report No. 1416218/6000/6001 6-1 VAUGHAN MAINLINE EXPANSION PROJECT effects based on these general locations for reasonably foreseeable projects was completed using professional judgement and based on previous experience with cumulative effects assessment for pipeline projects, and similar types of projects and activities. Projects and activities considered in this assessment include existing, man-made disturbances and those projects and activities that are known and approved for the reasonably foreseeable future, including development assumptions that support and are consistent with long-term economic or financial assumptions, even if formal plans or applications have not yet been made. Future projects that are not considered are those for which formal plans have not been publicly disclosed and information was not available. The following publicly available information sources were accessed to identify likely and reasonably foreseeable physical projects and activities within the cumulative effects assessment study areas: NEB: Major Applications and Projects before the NEB website – Archived (NEB 2015b) and Major Applications and Projects before the NEB (NEB 2015c); Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency: Canadian Environmental Assessment Registry website (CEA Registry 2015); Major Projects Management Office (MPMO): Current Project Agreements website (MPMO 2012); Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC): Environmental Assessments website (CNSC 2014); Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (MOECC): List of Environmental Assessment Projects (MOECC 2015d) and Renewable Energy Projects Index (MOECC 2015e) websites; Government of Ontario Environmental Registry website (Government of Ontario 2015b); Ontario Energy Board (OEB): Applications Before the Board website (OEB 2015); Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MNRF) online Renewable Energy Atlas (MNRF 2014e); Ministry of Transportation – Ontario (MTO) Southern Highways Program 2015-2019 website (MTO 2015); Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) Current Electricity Contracts website (IESO 2015); Infrastructure Ontario projects website (Infrastructure Ontario 2015a); Metrolinx Projects and Programs website (Metrolinx 2015); Hydro One Networks Inc. (Hydro One) Transmission System Projects website (Hydro One 2009) and Transmission Network Maps (Hydro One 2012); Ontario Power Generation (OPG) New Generation Projects website (OPG 2015); Applicable growth management policies for the Province of Ontario including the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006 (Ministry of Infrastructure 2013), Greenbelt Plan (Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing [MMAH] 2005), and Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (MMAH 2002); Websites of industry associations including the Canadian Energy Pipeline Association (CEPA no date), Canadian Wind Energy Association (CanWEA 2015) and Ontario Waterpower Association (OWA 2013); November 2015 Report No. 1416218/6000/6001 6-2 VAUGHAN MAINLINE EXPANSION PROJECT Enbridge Gas Distribution Inc. Pipeline and Construction Projects website (Enbridge Gas Distribution Inc. 2015a); Toronto and Region Conservation Authority website (TRCA 2015c); Municipality websites and official plans including: . Regional Municipality of York 2015 to 2018 Budget (Regional Municipality of York 2015d), Environment Resources website (Regional Municipality of York 2015e), Water and Wastewater Construction website (Regional Municipality of York 2015f), Road Construction Schedule website (Regional Municipality of York 2015g), and VivaNext (transit) website (VivaNext Transit 2015); . City of Vaughan Official Plan 2010, Capital Plan and Capital Budget 2015-2017 (City of Vaughan 2014f), Projects and Studies website (City of Vaughan 2015l), Planning and Growth Projects Website (City of Vaughan 2015m), and Projects List website (City of Vaughan 2015n); . Township of King Annual Budgets website (Township of King 2013a), and Engineering & Public Works Department (Township of King 2013b) website; . Region of Peel website for Brampton and Caledon (Region of Peel no date a,b), and Environmental Assessments website (Region of Peel no date c); . City of Brampton Environmental Assessment map (City of Brampton no date a); and . Toronto Transit Commission (TTC) Future Plans and Studies website (TTC 2015). The maximum extent of the air emissions LSA (i.e., 5 km wide corridor) and the Socio-economic Study Area (SSA) (i.e., the City of Vaughan), as defined in Section 4.3.2, together represent the area within which past, present and reasonably foreseeable projects and activities were identified for consideration of cumulative effects. This area is hereby known as the cumulative effects study area, which is sufficiently large to capture all projects with the potential to act cumulatively with the residual effects of the Project. Although the cumulative effects study area was used to identify other projects and activities for the purposes of the cumulative effects assessment, the study area for the assessment of cumulative effects on each VC varies depending on the geographic extent of the residual effects of the Project on each VC, as described in Section 6.0. The projects and activities that are considered in the cumulative effects assessment are presented in Table 6.1-1. These projects are divided into the following two categories: (1) projects located within 2.5 km on either side of the Project centreline; and, (2) projects that are located beyond 2.5 km on each side of the Project centreline, but within the SSA. Each project or activity was then screened to determine whether it would have the potential
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