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The Role of Russia, China, Iran and Their Foreign Policies Towards Syria on the Arab Spring

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The Role of Russia, China, Iran and Their Foreign Policies Towards Syria on the Arab Spring THE ROLE OF RUSSIA, CHINA, IRAN AND THEIR FOREIGN POLICIES TOWARDS SYRIA ON THE ARAB SPRING BY MISS WARAPORN RAKSORN A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS FACULTY OF POLITICAL SCIENCE THAMMASAT UNIVERSITY ACADEMIC YEAR 2015 COPYRIGHT OF THAMMASAT UNIVERSITY THE ROLE OF RUSSIA, CHINA, IRAN AND THEIR FOREIGN POLICIES TOWARDS SYRIA ON THE ARAB SPRING BY MISS WARAPORN RAKSORN A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS FACULTY OF POLITICAL SCIENCE THAMMASAT UNIVERSITY ACADEMIC YEAR 2015 COPYRIGHT OF THAMMASAT UNIVERSITY (1) Thesis Title THE ROLE OF RUSSIA, CHINA, IRAN AND THEIR FOREIGN POLICIES TOWARDS SYRIA ON THE ARAB SPRING Author Miss Waraporn Raksorn Degree Master of Political Science in International Relations Major Field/Faculty/University International Relations Faculty of Political Science Thammasat University Thesis Advisor Professor Jaran Maluleem, Ph.D Academic Years 2015 ABSTRACT Since the Arab Spring has driven the political turmoil in Middle East and Northern African countries, the global political actors have been involved in order to assist the crisis. Syrian uprising is a selected case that this research examines. Despite the fact that there are only some countries that are good allies to Syria while majority states condemned Assad’s government. This research focuses on the role of Syrian allies: Russia, China, and Iran. It attempts to find the key factors that contribute the allies to support Assad regime. The paper intends to investigate Russia, China and Iran’s foreign policies towards Syria since the 2011 Arab Spring until 2014. They maintain their policies not to intervene in the Syrian Civil war. The analysis and argument are based on Realism lens and by applying the game theory to test the hypothesis. This research examines how game theoretic analyses of externals’ foreign policies have shown their national interests and cooperation strategic movement. Therefore, it has proven their interdependent strategies among the players (Syria and its allies). Thus, Constructivism theory is used to analyse the norms, beliefs and ideas that shape (2) state’s foreign policy. It also finds out how these norms, beliefs, and ideas shape the allies’ foreign policies. This research paper argues that Syria’s external allies continue to support Syria to gain their common interests, and play the major roles in regional and global politics. Nevertheless, relationship between Syrian government and allies appears to be continued and they will keep supporting Assad regime. Finally, this paper highlights the important motivations for policy makers of the Syrian’s allies that they are involved in Syrian crisis acting on both regional and international stages. Keywords: Arab Spring, Syria, Syrian Civil War, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, China, Iran, Foreign policy, Game theory, Constructivism, National Interests (3) ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This thesis is part of the Master Degree in International Relations, Thammasat University. I would like to express the deepest appreciation to my thesis advisor Prof. Dr. Jaran Maluleem who has great knowledge about Middle East politics and he has never hesitated to tell me about Middle East and Islam. I would like to thank the co-advisors Dr. Srawut Aree and Asst. Prof. Dr. Wasan Luangprapat for their time, suggestions, and guidance to this research. I would not have completed it without their greatest supports. And I also would like to thank others IR professors who provide their lifetime knowledge and experiences to me. I would like to express the deepest appreciation to Prof. Dr. Mohammad Savadi (Al-Mustafa International University, Iran), Dr. Pichai Israbhakdi (Former Thai Ambassador to Iran), lecturer Jittipat Poonkham (Russian expert, Thammasat University) who have given the in-depth knowledge and experiences to my research. Without their guidance and kindness, this thesis would not have been possible. Moreover, I would like to express the greatest gratitude to my family, my parents, brothers and sister who always stand by me when I need moral and financial supports. Thanks to my best friends Nuy, Fai, and Uhu gang for their supports and cheering. I would like to thank all my MIR16 friends; Mew, Nat, Bambi, Sandy, Mai, Man, Mook, Tim and others, it is really blessed to know all of you. Thanks to P’Nong and P’Su who always provide guideline for completing this thesis in time. Lastly, thank to Zafar, my closest Pakistani friend who always supports me and provides Shia-Sunni knowledge, also useful perspectives on the Syrian conflicts. The writing of this thesis has been an awesome journey to discover so many things about Syria, as well as the sorrowful stories when reading about the humanitarian crisis, refugees, the massacre by the terrorists and the misuse of Islam. Lastly, I wish to dedicate this research to all Syrians who have been involved in this crisis. Every life who has suffered from the seemingly endless Civil War since 2011, being misplaced, became refugees and homeless, losing their beloved ones, I hope with my heartfelt wishes that this crisis will be solved soon with the ideally peaceful resolution and no more damages. Miss Waraporn Raksorn (4) TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT (1) ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS (3) LIST OF TABLES (7) LIST OF FIGURES (8) LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS (9) CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background and Issues 2 1.2 Research Questions 7 1.3 Objectives of Study 7 1.4 Conceptual Framework 7 1.4.1 Game Theory 8 1.4.2 Constructivism 11 1.4.3 National Interests 14 1.4.4 Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) 15 1.5 Hypothesis 16 1.6 Methodology 16 1.6.1 Research Methods 17 1.7 Scope of Study 18 CHAPTER 2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE 20 2.1 Syrian Uprising since the Arab Spring 2011 20 2.2 The Role of Bashar al-Assad Government 26 2.3 Syria Relations with Russia, Iran and China during the Arab Spring 28 2.3.1 Literature Review about Russia and Syria 28 2.3.2 Literature Review about China and Syria 31 (5) 2.3.3 Literature Review about Iran and Syria 33 CHAPTER 3 SYRIAN’S IMPORTANT ALLIES AND THEIR RELATIONS 38 3.1 The Important Ally (1) Russia 38 3.1.1 History of Russian Foreign Policy in the Middle East 39 3.1.2 Russian Foreign Policy towars Syria 41 3.1.3 Role of Russia in UNSC and its Veto Power 43 3.1.4 Econoic and Military Relations 46 3.1.5 Russian Geo-politic strategy towards Syria 48 3.2 The Important Ally (2) China 50 3.2.1 China’s Relationship to the Middle East 50 3.2.2 Chinese Foreign Policy Towards Syria 52 3.2.3 Role of China in UNSC and Its Veto Power 53 3.2.4 Economic Cooperation 56 3.3 The Important Ally (3) Iran 58 3.3.1 Iran’s Position in the Middle East and Relationship with Syria 59 3.3.2 Iranian Foreign Policy towords Syria 61 3.3.3 Iran-Syria and Hezbollah Relationship 63 3.3.4 Iranian Geo-Politic Strategy towards Syria 65 CHAPTER 4 DISCUSSION OF ALLIANCES’ FOREIGN POLICIES TOWARDS SYRIA 67 4.1 Analyse with Game Theory and FPA 68 4.1.1 Observing the Strategic Concerns in the Game Theory 68 4.1.2 Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) 79 4.2 Discussion, Applying Realist and Constructivist Agruments 89 into Consideration 4.2.1 Realist’s Perspective of Material Factors 89 4.2.2 Constructivist’s Perspective of Ideational Factors 92 4.3 Results 96 (6) CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 105 5.1 Conclusion 105 5.2 The Afterward of 2014 Syrian Crisis and International Involvements 110 5.3 Implication and Recommendations 114 REFERENCES 115 APPENDICES APPENDIX A President Al-Assad’s Interview with ABC News 126 APPENDIX B Iranian President in a Meeting With Syrian Parliament 147 Speaker APPENDIX C President Assad’s Russian TV Interview 149 BIOGRAPHY 152 (7) LIST OF TABLES Tables Page 3.1 Summary of United Nations Security Council Concerning Syria – Veto List on Draft Resolutions 57 3.2 Summary of UNSC – Adopted Resolutions on Syria 58 4.1 Similarities and Differences Factors of Alliance with Syria 69 4.2 Summary of the Three Syrian Allies’ National Interests 88 4.3 Arms Exports to Syria 91 (8) LIST OF FIGURES Figures Page 4.1 Game Theory of Non-zero Sum Game (Positive Sum Game) 70 4.2 Foreign Policy Sources, Constraints, and Opportunities 82 (9) LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS Symbols/Abbreviations Terms FPA Foreign Policy Analysis FSA Free Syrian Army GCC The Gulf Cooperation Council IRGC The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps ISIS The Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham NCC The National Coordination Committee for Domestic Change R2P Responsibility to Protect SNC The Syrian National Council UNDP United Nations Development Program UNSC United Nations Security Council 1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION The “Arab Spring” has shaken global politics and has brought many changes to the region. Many states have become interested in this political phenomenon. The “Arab Spring”, or “Arab uprising”, began in Tunisia at the end of 2010. It has demonstrated the ongoing conflict between opposition groups and governments, and has resulted in a huge loss of human life. The political uprising and regime1 change affected global politics and foreign policies toward Northern African and Middle Eastern countries. This paper concentrates on Syria and its ongoing Civil War. Many states have had economic sanctions on Syria, such as the United States and the European Union. The Arab League also suspended Syria’s membership in November 2011 and condemned the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad for using violence against their citizens2.
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