Peer-reviewed Article International Security After the Arab Spring: Domestic and International Sources of the Syrian and Libyan Conflicts (2011-2020) EFE CAN GÜRCAN Asst. Prof. Department of International Relations, İstinye University Efe Can Gürcan is Associate Dean of Research and Development for the Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences at İstinye University. He is also Chair of the Department of Political Science and Public Administration and a faculty member in the Department of Inter- national Relations, İstinye University. He serves as Research Associate at the University of Mani- toba’s Geopolitical Economy Research Group. Gürcan completed his undergraduate education in International Relations at Koç University. He received his master’s degree in International Studies from the University of Montréal and earned his PhD in Sociology from Simon Fraser University. He speaks English, French, Spanish and Turkish. His publications include three books as well as more than 30 articles and book chapters on international development, international conflict and international institutions, with a geographical focus on Latin America and the Middle East. His latest book is Multipolarization, South-South Cooperation and the Rise of Post-Hegemonic Governance. BRIq • Volume 1 Issue 2 Spring 2020 ABSTRACT The so-called Arab “Spring” may be considered as the most significant geopolitical event and the largest social mobilization that have shaped Greater Middle Eastern politics in the post-Cold War era. The present article examines how this process turned into an Arab “Winter”, having led to the world’s largest humanitarian crises since World War II. Using a geopolitical-economy framework guided by narrative analysis and incorporated comparison, this article focuses on the countries where the Arab Spring process led to gravest consequences: Syria and Libya. The research aim is to develop a comprehensive and multi-dimensional framework that gives due attention to the dialectics of internal and external factors underlying armed conflicts. I argue that the failure of Syria’s Baathist development project constitutes an important root cause for Syria’s tragic destabilization, since it created a favorable environment for foreign intervention and the exploitation of ethno-religious differences by foreign powers. The same can be said of Libya’s domestic policy failures inscribed in its extractivism, liberalization and nepotism, which are coupled with its cultural and socio-demographic vulnerabilities. As far as the external factors of the Syrian conflict are concerned, the evidence suggests that the transformation of ethno-religious tensions into a proxy war is strongly mediated by the foreign policy imperatives of key countries involved in the Syrian conflict. In both cases, geopolitical factors – including energy and human security, military alliances, and foreign-policy commitments – seem to have served as strong incentives for the emergence and diffusion of conflicts. Keywords: Arab Spring; human security; international development; international security; political ecology; political economy THE SO-CALLED “ARAB SPRING” MAY BE Spring mobilizations differed importantly in their considered as the most significant geopolitical degree of civil society organization and the extent event and the largest social mobilization that have of meddling by foreign powers (Otero & Gürcan, shaped Greater Middle Eastern politics in the 2016: Chen, 2019/2020). post-Cold War era. It was triggered in December Eventually, the Arab Spring turned into an 2010, when Tunisian working class and civic or- Arab “Winter” (Prashad, 2012; Koray, 2019/2020). ganizations massed after the self-immolation of a In Egypt, with considerable popular support, the street vendor who had been repressed by police July 2013 coup d’état restored military rule. Un- forces. Social mobilization was so vigorous and der foreign intervention, Libya became mired in united in its aims that the president was forced a full-fledged war that has produced tens of thou- to resign after three weeks. Inspired by this suc- sands of casualties. Many foreign-backed merce- cess, similar mobilizations began in Egypt, Lib- naries in Libya would eventually move on to the ya, Syria and elsewhere. Indeed, the Arab Spring Syria campaign. Thanks to continued Western conjuncture provided a unique opportunity for support, Syria and Libya were center stage of one global and regional powers to take advantage of of the world’s largest humanitarian crises since the emerging power vacuum in advancing their World War II (Otero & Gürcan, 2016; üG rcan, own geopolitical interests. This being said, Arab 2019b; 2019e). 66 Efe Can Gürcan, International Security After the Arab Spring: Domestic and International Sources of the Syrian and Libyan Conflicts (2011-2020) The severity of this situation in the Arab foreign-policy imperatives of key countries in- Winter conjuncture prompts us to think about volved in the region, including Syria and Libya the underlying causes that have led to such a (Gürcan, 2019e). wide-scale conflict with grave consequences In turn, what I call the domestic factors for international security. Grasping these caus- concern Syria and Libya’s political-economic al mechanisms would certainly improve our and political-ecological transitions. Particularly, knowledge on how to prevent the emergence they are related to the exhaustion of Syria’s re- and diffusion of such conflicts in the future. source-based, or extractivist development mod- From a conventional International Relations el, neoliberal restructuring and environmental perspective, one could indeed grant primacy to de-regulation, which have converged to generate external factors associated with the role of ge- deep-rooted socio-economic tensions paving opolitics, proxy war, and foreign intervention. the way for the Syrian conflict (Gürcan, 2019b). Nevertheless, one point remains to be clarified: In the case of Libya, policy failures such as oil ex- what are some of the major domestic factors tractivism, state decentralization and tribalism, that have rendered Syria and Libya vulnerable to liberalization, nepotism and corruption stand these external influences in the first place? With out as key factors underlying the Libyan conflict. this question in mind, the present article em- Before tackling the case of Syria and Libya, ploys a comprehensive and multi-dimensional a few words are in order about the methodol- ogy that has been employed. My comparative approach that combines conventional Interna- study combines narrative analysis and incorpo- tional Relations approaches with political econ- rated comparison within the framework of geo- omy and political ecology. political economy. As a school of international This article is organized into three sections. relations established by Radhika Desai (2013) The first presents the conceptual and methodo- and later developed by Efe Can Gürcan (2019a; logical framework used to study the case of Syria 2019c; 2019d), geopolitical economy studies and Libya. The two remaining sections explore how interstate struggles and their interactions the internal and external factors underlying the with non-state actors are entangled with eco- Syrian and Libyan conflicts, respectively. nomic relations. The critique of imperialism and Conceptual and Methodological Issues neoliberal capitalism lies at the heart of geopo- litical economy. Moreover, geopolitical econo- By conventional International Relations ap- my refutes transnationalism and re-asserts the proaches, I mostly refer to the study of geopo- persisting centrality of nation-states in world litical factors leading to the ongoing conflicts in politics. As such, it allows for a balanced study Syria and Libya. For example, Sunni sectarian- of how conflicts are shaped by the dialectics ism and Kurdish autonomism in Syria are among of domestic and external factors (Desai, 2010; the most pronounced geo-cultural factors that 2013; 2015a; 2015b; 2016; Gürcan, 2019a; 2019c; have shaped the regional conflicts through for- 2019d; Tutan, 2019/2020). eign intervention, whereas geopolitical factors In turn, incorporated comparison is a com- are perhaps most clearly identified with energy parative method that “seeks to understand the and human security, military alliances, and the complexity of global phenomena by addressing 67 BRIq • Volume 1 Issue 2 Spring 2020 cross-case commonalities, mutual influences, project constitutes an important root cause for and interdependencies in tandem with spatial or Syria’s tragic destabilization, since it has created temporal variations, historical specificities, and a favorable environment for foreign intervention internal tensions for a fuller understanding of a and the exploitation of ethno-religious differ- global configuration at hand” (Gürcan, 2019d: ences by foreign powers. The same can be said as 6). Therefore, case selection is made based on to Libya’s domestic policy failures inscribed in its the principle of historical connectivity and mu- extractivism, liberalization and nepotism, which tual conditioning (McMichael, 1990; 2000). The are coupled with its cultural and socio-demo- rationale for focusing on the case of Syria and graphic vulnerabilities. Libya in this study is thus to reveal how the Arab The development model pursued by con- Spring conjuncture evolved into a “winter” of temporary Syria can be traced back to the 1970s conflicts and chaos. Syria and Libya epitomize following the military coup that