B . SA LAYMEH IMPACT OF NEOPATRIMONIALISM ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE CONFLICT IN SYRIA BELAL A. M. SALAYMEH METU METU JULY 2018 IMPACT OF NEOPATRIMONIALISM ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE CONFLICT IN SYRIA A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY BELAL A. M. SALAYMEH IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS JULY 2018 Approval of the Graduate School of Social Sciences Prof. Dr. Tülin Gençöz Director I certify that this thesis satisfies all the requirements as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science. Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür Head of Department This is to certify that we have read this thesis and that in our opinion it is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science. Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür Supervisor Examining Committee Members Prof. Dr. Meliha Altunışık (METU, IR) Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür (METU, IR) Assist. Prof. Dr. Ayşe Ömür Atmaca (Hacettepe Uni, IR) I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last Name : BELAL SALAYMEH Signature : iii ABSTRACT IMPACT OF NEOPATRIMONIALISM ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE CONFLICT IN SYRIA Salaymeh, Belal M.S. Department of International Relations Supervisor : Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür July 2018, 159 pages This thesis attempts to understand the impact of the nature of the Assad regime on the trajectory of the conflict which took place in Syria following the 2011 uprising. It argues that the Assad regime which has been ruling Syria since 1970 represents a case of neopatrimonial regime. The thesis elaborates the neopatrimonial conceptualization tracing the concept back to its Weberian roots. It follows the evolution of the concept from the ‘traditional’ patrimonialism to the modern ‘neo’ patrimonialism. The thesis claims that the neopatrimonial regime consolidates its power through personalization of the regime, patronage and clientelism networks. The claim puts forth is that through neopatrimonialism, the Assad regime was able to consolidate its patrimonial domination and penetrate the bureaucratic realm as well as the society through the patronage and clientelism networks. The thesis argues that the neopatrimonialism had fostered the durability of the regime, and limited the outcomes of the conflict to a rocking between a re-stabilization of the regime and an uncertain revolution, and has influenced the trajectory of the conflict which dragged the country into a state of civil war. Keywords: Assad Regime, Syrian Conflict, Neopatrimonialism, Patronage, Clientelism. iv ÖZ NEOPATRIMONYALIZMIN SURIYE’DEKI ÇATIŞMANIN GIDIŞATI ÜZERINDEKI ETKISI Salaymeh, Belal Yüksek Lisans, Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi : Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür Temmuz 2018, 159 sayfa Bu tez, Esad yönetiminin doğasının Suriye'de 2011 ayaklanmasının ardından gerçekleşen çatışmanın gidişatı üzerindeki etkisini anlamaya çalışmaktadır. Tezde, Suriye'de 1970'den bu yana devam etmekte olan Esad yönetiminin neopatrimonyal bir yönetim örneği olduğu savunulmaktadır. Tez, neopatrimonyal kavramsallaştırmasını, kavramın Weberyan kökenine doğru izini sürerek ayrıntılandırmaktadır. Kavramın evrimini, ‘gelenksel’ patrimonyalizmden modern ‘neo’ patrimonyalizme kadar izlemektedir. Tez, neopatrimonyal yönetimin, iktidarını, yönetimin kişiselleştirilmesi, patronaj ve klientalizm ağları ile sağlamlaştırdığını savunmaktadır. İleri sürülen iddia, Esad yönetiminin, neopatrimonyalizm aracılığıyla, patrimonyal tahakkümünü sağlamlaştırdığı ve patronaj ve klientalism ağlarıyla topluma olduğu kadar bürokratik alana da nüfuz ettiğidir. Tez, neopatrimonyalizmin yönetimin dayanıklılığını beslediğini, çatışmanın sonuçlarını yönetimin yeniden dengelenmesi ve belirsiz bir devrim arasında gelip giden bir durumla sınırladığını ve ülkeyi bir iç savaş durumuna sürükleyen gidişatı etkilediğini iddia etmektedir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Esed Rejimi, Suriye Çatışması, Neopatrimonyalizm, Patronaj, Klientalism v To My Parents Abdulhafiz & Nehad Salaymeh vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First and formost, I want to thank my parents for their love and support. My father Abdulhafiz Salaymeh, has given me the strength to pursue my way, my benefit from his library, consultance, and guidance have broadened my horizon. My mother Nehad Salaymeh’s prayers have always accompanied me. My sister Jumanah, my brothers Ammar and Muhammed deserve my wholehearted gratitude as well. This thesis would not be written without the guidance and continuous support of my supervisor Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür. I would like to sincerely thank her. I would also thank my respected examination committee members Prof. Dr. Meliha Altunışık and Assoc. Dr. Ayşe Ömür Atmaca who have offered me valuable feedbacks and enlightening questions. I want to express my heartfelt gratitude to them all. Many people, professors, colleagues, friends … especalliy at METU and at SETA have contributed to this thesis, either they are aware or not, I want to thank them all for their butterfly effect. I want to thank also T.C. Yurtdışı Türkler ve Akraba Topluluklar Başkanlığı (YTB) for their generous scholarship. Lastly, I would like to leave the remaining space in memory of my frineds Diaa who was killed under torture in Assad’s prison, Ahmad who lost his life by a sniper, and to all people who believe in and pursue their Freedom. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS PLAGIARISM...........................................................................................................iii ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................. iv ÖZ ...............................................................................................................................v DEDICATION .......................................................................................................... vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...................................................................................... vii TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................ viii LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................... x LIST OF FIGURES/ILLUSTRATIONS/SCHEMES ............................................. xi LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................. xii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................1 2. NEOPATRIMONIALISM…………………………………………………10 2.1.Patrimonialism………………..………………………………………..10 2.2.Neopatrimonialism…………….………………………………………12 2.2.1. Neopatrimonialism’s Working Mechanisms: Penetration Through Patronage and Clientelism Relations………………....16 2.2.2. Neopatrimonial Regimes: Transition versus Non-Transition......22 2.3.Neopatrimonialism in the Middle East…………………………………26 3. SURIYET’UL ASSAD A CASE OF NEOPATRIMONIAL REGIME…..…36 3.1. The Shortages of Other Conceptualizations…………………………...37 3.2. The Neopatrimonialism of the Assad Regime…………………………45 3.2.1. The Personalization of the Assad Regime …………………..…47 3.2.1.1.Assad’s Clique……………………………………………...50 3.2.1.2. Assad’s Cult of Personality………………………………..57 3.2.2. Patronage Politics in Syria……………………………………...62 3.2.2.1. Alawite Patronage…………………………………………63 3.2.2.2. Baath Party Patronage……………………………………..69 viii 3.2.3. The Clientelism of the Assad Regime…………………………76 3.2.3.1. Hafez Assad’s Era and Business Community……………..79 3.2.3.2. Under Bashar’s Rule; from Clientelism to Patronage……..82 3.3.Neopatrimonalism and the Robustensss of the Assad Regime………...85 4. THE IMPACT OF THE NEOPATRIMONAILSIM OF THE ASSAD REGIME ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE CONFLICT IN SYRIA…....92 4.1. A Synopsis of the Syrian Conflict……………………………………..92 4.2. The Neopatrimonalization of the Conflict……………………………..99 4.2.1. Personalization of the Conflict………………………………..100 4.2.1.1. The Role of the Clique: The Assad Regime’s Hard-Liners ……………………………………………….103 4.2.1.2. The Cult in Work…………………………………………106 4.2.2. Mobilizing the Patronage Network…………………………...109 4.2.2.1. Mobilizing the Alawite Patronage Networks…………….111 4.2.2.2. Mobilizing the Baath Party’s Patronage Networks………115 4.2.3. Clientelist Networks Functioning…………………………….119 5. CONCLUSION…………………………………………………………...123 BIGLIOGRAPHY………………………………………………………………...131 APPENDICES A. TURKİSH SUMMARY/ TÜRKÇE ÖZET ................................................141 b. TEZ FOTOKOPİSİ İZİN FORUMU ..........................................................151 ix LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Possible Regime Outcomes according To the Regime’s Characteristics .. 90 Table 2: Possible Regime Outcomes according To the Regime’s & The Opposition’s Components……………………………………………….…………91 Table 3: Brownlee’s Strength of Hard-Liners in Neopatrimonial Regimes, applied to the Syrian Case .........................................................................................92 Table 4: Brownlee’s Relative Strength of Domestic Opposition to Neopatrimonial Dictators, applied to Assad regime case ...............................................................…93 x LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Comparing Weberian Patrimonialism with the Modern Neopatrimonialism ……………………………. ..............................................................................22