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Arab Reform Brief N° 06 April 2006

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Arab Reform Brief N° 06 April 2006 ararrararrar Arab Reform Initiative Arab Reform Brief N° 06 April 2006 SYRIA: WHAT REFORMS WHILE A STORM IS BUILDING? Samir Aita * Syria underwent profound changes since 2005 in its regional and international positioning, as well as in its internal political situation. This policy brief discusses the domestic prospects for change and the potential for reforms and analyzes the impact of regional and international developments on the domestic situation. For the first time in decades, Syrian public opinion is critical of its authorities’ role in Lebanon, with the majority holding them responsible for the situation there. The economic situation has deteriorated to levels dangerous for social stability. Direct criticism of the President and his team by the business community is unprecedented. The opposition overcame its weaknesses and political and civil society movements signed the “Damascus Declaration” calling openly for peaceful “regime change”. The prospects for peaceful change depend on the findings of the UN investigation commission over the assassination of former Prime Minister of Lebanon Hariri, the ability of the opposition to propose a platform to demonstrate to the Syrian public that change will not lead to chaos; and the ability of the “power system” to respond intelligently to the combination of international pressures and internal challenges on the economic, social and political front. Syria has undergone considerable changes in It does not address in detail the regional and 2005 in its regional and international international perspectives, but analyses their positioning, as well as in its internal politics impact on the internal situation. and public opinion. This policy brief discusses the domestic prospects for change and the The assassination of former Prime Minister of potential for reforms. Lebanon Rafiq Hariri and the withdrawal of the Syrian troops from Lebanon lead to an General Director of Mafhoum (Concept) internationalization of the relationship between and Le Monde Diplomatique - Arabic Syria and Lebanon, with several UN Security Edition Council resolutions that, for the first time, Mailing Address : Arab Reform Initiative T : +33 1 56 77 14 21/4 71 rue Fondary 75015 F : + 33 1 56 77 14 15 Paris France [email protected] /www.arab-reform.net 2 condemned Syrian behavior in a country crisis with local politicians to an open conflict, central to its regional and internal policies. involving major world powers; several UN This process has lead to several changes in the Security Council resolutions were issued perspectives inside Syria: against Syria with the core of its “power - For the first time in decades, Syrian system” being accused publicly and by an public opinion was critical of the international investigation of the assassination authorities’ role in Lebanon, with the of the former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq majority holding them responsible for Hariri and other prominent Lebanese figures. the situation there. On New Year’s Eve, the former Syrian vice- - A wider range of actors inside Syria president joined the accusations, targeting the became convinced of the need for rapid Syrian President directly, creating a political economic and political reform. shockwave in the country, despite a negative However, the Congress of the Ba’ath public opinion on Mr. Khaddam himself. Party in June 2005 and successive speeches of the President undermined In this course of events, a congress of the these expectations while reinforcing Baath party was held in June. It postponed the the control of the Presidential Palace long awaited political reforms that had been and the security forces over public life, promised by the President in his speech on the suppressing any dissent within the withdrawal of troops from Lebanon. It also regime and the Baath Party. brought members of the security services into - The Syrian opposition overcame its the Baath Regional Command, while adopting weaknesses and called for “radical “social market economy” in breach of the 1973 change” of the regime in a declaration. “socialist” constitution of the regime, and They were joined in that call by a wide promoting a “reformer” as Deputy Prime range of civil society movements, as Minister and strong government figure. The well as by the defecting Syrian vice- main economic reforms introduced by president Abdel Halim Khaddam. President. Bashar Assad have lately yielded some results, with an impressive growth in the The perspectives in early 2006 are still not private banking sector and of imports. clear and depend on three factors: Further, while the UN investigator Detlev 1/ the findings of the UN investigation Mehlis was delivering the committee’s report commission over the assassination of the accusing Syria of Hariri’s assassination, the former Prime Minister of Lebanon Rafiq Syrian government announced confidently that Hariri; 2/ the ability of the opposition to new foreign investments amounted to US$7- propose a platform to demonstrate to the 10 billion, a level never reached before, that Syrian public opinion that change is not relations with the European Union and chaos; and 3/ the ability of the “power international financial institutions (the World system” to respond intelligently to the Bank and the International Monetary Fund) combination of international pressures and had also improved dramatically as the internal challenges on the economic, social authorities launched a major fiscal reform and political front. programme. In light of the international investigation however, Europe suspended the finalization of The year 2005 in Syria the Association agreement which was reached at the end of 2004. The level of economic 2005 has been exceptional on all counts. activity started slowing with the turmoil, and Syrian troops withdrew from Lebanon in a government plans to reach a 7% annual growth humiliating fashion; relations with the rate for the next decade, (the minimum to cope neighboring country transformed from a latent with the rapid decrease in oil production and 3 increase in unemployment) appear Politicians, journalists and opinion makers in unattainable. The economic situation has Lebanon regularly criticize Syrian public deteriorated to levels dangerous for social opinion as being insensitive to their struggles stability, despite trade opening. and complain against the practices of the Syrian authorities and intelligence services in However, the major change that occurred in Lebanon. In effect, even the intellectuals and Syria in 2005 is political. A few days only activists of the “Damascus Spring” have before the Mehlis report was released, several avoided addressing the Syrian presence in political and civil society movements signed Lebanon while asking for democratic the “Damascus Declaration” which, for the freedoms in their country. The “Declaration of first time, called openly for peaceful “regime the 99 intellectuals” issued at the start of the change”. The political debate in Syria has “Damascus Spring” did not mention the never been so intense and public, on internet Lebanese issue, nor did the “Statement of the sites and in the official media. Several times, 1000” or the basic document for the creation the President has been forced to address of the “Committee for Reviving Civil Society” directly public opinion and Syrian officials, described below. including heads of security services, The question of the “occupation” of Lebanon intervened on-air on Arab satellite channels to continues to be seen as an element in the respond to public criticism. Everyone is regional confrontation with Israel and major questioning the country’s political future in the outside powers since the 1980s and, in fact, wake of the “Iraqi chaos” and the “Cedar while Syrians are well informed about revolution” in Lebanon. Attempts to create Lebanese politics, they envied the “minimal” political movements are emerging here and freedoms enjoyed by the Lebanese “under there. It is on this political level, where things Syrian occupation” which, if applied to Syria are moving fast, that the future of the country itself, would constitute a major achievement. shall be drawn. Security Council Resolution 1559 voted on September 2, 2004 contributed to this The Battle for Syrian Public Opinion confusion. The resolution was passed in response to the Syrian regime’s imposed One of the major battles of 2005 was to gain change of the Lebanese constitution to renew Syrian public opinion. Through his the mandate of the Lebanese president Emile increasingly frequent speeches, President Lahoud. The resolution not only called for the Bashar Assad focused on gaining public cancellation of this unconstitutional procedure opinion, appealing to its national pride and and for the withdrawal of the Syrian troops, fear of chaos. The US policies lack credibility but also for the disarming of the Hizbollah when they call for a “change of behavior of the which, for the Syrian public, is the most Syrian regime”, a slogan interpreted by Syrian popular political force in the region because public opinion, as relating to the Iraqi and the they achieved the liberation of Israeli occupied Palestinian-Israeli situations as well as to the land. This is a sensitive issue for Syrians who issue of Hizbollah , more than to Lebanon or feel the humiliation of the continuing Syria or the issue of democracy. Lebanese occupation of the Golan Heights. In addition, politicians have lost many opportunities to this was not the first time that the Lebanese gain Syrian sympathy
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