ararrararrar Arab Reform Initiative Arab Reform Brief N° 06 April 2006

SYRIA: WHAT REFORMS WHILE A STORM IS BUILDING? Samir Aita *

Syria underwent profound changes since 2005 in its regional and international positioning, as well as in its internal political situation. This policy brief discusses the domestic prospects for change and the potential for reforms and analyzes the impact of regional and international developments on the domestic situation. For the first time in decades, Syrian public opinion is critical of its authorities’ role in , with the majority holding them responsible for the situation there. The economic situation has deteriorated to levels dangerous for social stability. Direct criticism of the President and his team by the business community is unprecedented. The opposition overcame its weaknesses and political and civil society movements signed the “” calling openly for peaceful “regime change”. The prospects for peaceful change depend on the findings of the UN investigation commission over the of former Prime Minister of Lebanon Hariri, the ability of the opposition to propose a platform to demonstrate to the Syrian public that change will not lead to chaos; and the ability of the “power system” to respond intelligently to the combination of international pressures and internal challenges on the economic, social and political front.

Syria has undergone considerable changes in It does not address in detail the regional and 2005 in its regional and international international perspectives, but analyses their positioning, as well as in its internal politics impact on the internal situation. and public opinion. This policy brief discusses the domestic prospects for change and the The assassination of former Prime Minister of potential for reforms. Lebanon Rafiq Hariri and the withdrawal of the Syrian troops from Lebanon lead to an General Director of Mafhoum (Concept) internationalization of the relationship between and Le Monde Diplomatique - Syria and Lebanon, with several UN Security Edition Council resolutions that, for the first time,

Mailing Address : Arab Reform Initiative T : +33 1 56 77 14 21/4 71 rue Fondary 75015 F : + 33 1 56 77 14 15 Paris France [email protected] /www.arab-reform.net 2 condemned Syrian behavior in a country crisis with local politicians to an open conflict, central to its regional and internal policies. involving major world powers; several UN This process has lead to several changes in the Security Council resolutions were issued perspectives inside Syria: against Syria with the core of its “power - For the first time in decades, Syrian system” being accused publicly and by an public opinion was critical of the international investigation of the assassination authorities’ role in Lebanon, with the of the former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq majority holding them responsible for Hariri and other prominent Lebanese figures. the situation there. On New Year’s Eve, the former Syrian vice- - A wider range of actors inside Syria president joined the accusations, targeting the became convinced of the need for rapid Syrian President directly, creating a political economic and political reform. shockwave in the country, despite a negative However, the Congress of the Ba’ath public opinion on Mr. Khaddam himself. Party in June 2005 and successive speeches of the President undermined In this course of events, a congress of the these expectations while reinforcing Baath party was held in June. It postponed the the control of the Presidential Palace long awaited political reforms that had been and the security forces over public life, promised by the President in his speech on the suppressing any dissent within the withdrawal of troops from Lebanon. It also regime and the Baath Party. brought members of the security services into - The overcame its the Baath Regional Command, while adopting weaknesses and called for “radical “social market economy” in breach of the 1973 change” of the regime in a declaration. “socialist” constitution of the regime, and They were joined in that call by a wide promoting a “reformer” as Deputy Prime range of civil society movements, as Minister and strong government figure. The well as by the defecting Syrian vice- main economic reforms introduced by president Abdel Halim Khaddam. President. Bashar Assad have lately yielded some results, with an impressive growth in the The perspectives in early 2006 are still not private banking sector and of imports. clear and depend on three factors: Further, while the UN investigator Detlev 1/ the findings of the UN investigation Mehlis was delivering the committee’s report commission over the assassination of the accusing Syria of Hariri’s assassination, the former Prime Minister of Lebanon Rafiq Syrian government announced confidently that Hariri; 2/ the ability of the opposition to new foreign investments amounted to US$7- propose a platform to demonstrate to the 10 billion, a level never reached before, that Syrian public opinion that change is not relations with the European Union and chaos; and 3/ the ability of the “power international financial institutions (the World system” to respond intelligently to the Bank and the International Monetary Fund) combination of international pressures and had also improved dramatically as the internal challenges on the economic, social authorities launched a major fiscal reform and political front. programme. In light of the international investigation however, Europe suspended the finalization of The year 2005 in Syria the Association agreement which was reached at the end of 2004. The level of economic 2005 has been exceptional on all counts. activity started slowing with the turmoil, and Syrian troops withdrew from Lebanon in a government plans to reach a 7% annual growth humiliating fashion; relations with the rate for the next decade, (the minimum to cope neighboring country transformed from a latent with the rapid decrease in oil production and 3 increase in unemployment) appear Politicians, journalists and opinion makers in unattainable. The economic situation has Lebanon regularly criticize Syrian public deteriorated to levels dangerous for social opinion as being insensitive to their struggles stability, despite trade opening. and complain against the practices of the Syrian authorities and intelligence services in However, the major change that occurred in Lebanon. In effect, even the intellectuals and Syria in 2005 is political. A few days only activists of the “” have before the Mehlis report was released, several avoided addressing the Syrian presence in political and civil society movements signed Lebanon while asking for democratic the “Damascus Declaration” which, for the freedoms in their country. The “Declaration of first time, called openly for peaceful “regime the 99 intellectuals” issued at the start of the change”. The political debate in Syria has “Damascus Spring” did not mention the never been so intense and public, on internet Lebanese issue, nor did the “Statement of the sites and in the official media. Several times, 1000” or the basic document for the creation the President has been forced to address of the “Committee for Reviving Civil Society” directly public opinion and Syrian officials, described below. including heads of security services, The question of the “occupation” of Lebanon intervened on-air on Arab satellite channels to continues to be seen as an element in the respond to public criticism. Everyone is regional confrontation with Israel and major questioning the country’s political future in the outside powers since the 1980s and, in fact, wake of the “Iraqi chaos” and the “Cedar while Syrians are well informed about revolution” in Lebanon. Attempts to create Lebanese politics, they envied the “minimal” political movements are emerging here and freedoms enjoyed by the Lebanese “under there. It is on this political level, where things Syrian occupation” which, if applied to Syria are moving fast, that the future of the country itself, would constitute a major achievement. shall be drawn. Security Council Resolution 1559 voted on September 2, 2004 contributed to this The Battle for Syrian Public Opinion confusion. The resolution was passed in response to the Syrian regime’s imposed One of the major battles of 2005 was to gain change of the Lebanese constitution to renew Syrian public opinion. Through his the mandate of the Lebanese president Emile increasingly frequent speeches, President Lahoud. The resolution not only called for the Bashar Assad focused on gaining public cancellation of this unconstitutional procedure opinion, appealing to its national pride and and for the withdrawal of the Syrian troops, fear of chaos. The US policies lack credibility but also for the disarming of the Hizbollah when they call for a “change of behavior of the which, for the Syrian public, is the most Syrian regime”, a slogan interpreted by Syrian popular political force in the region because public opinion, as relating to the Iraqi and the they achieved the liberation of Israeli occupied Palestinian-Israeli situations as well as to the land. This is a sensitive issue for Syrians who issue of Hizbollah , more than to Lebanon or feel the humiliation of the continuing Syria or the issue of democracy. Lebanese occupation of the Golan Heights. In addition, politicians have lost many opportunities to this was not the first time that the Lebanese gain Syrian sympathy to their cause because constitution had been changed to they were not able to differentiate between the accommodate Syrian interests. Syrian power system, the security services, the population and the immigrant workers on their The assassination of the former Lebanese soil. Prime Minister on February 14, 2005 focused Syrian public opinion on the Lebanese issue. The event itself was a shock, as were the 4 massive demonstrations of March 8 (pro- military intervention. A period of nervous Syrian) and March 14 (anti-Syrian). For the tension followed, with spectacular “shows” of first time, Syrians discovered the level of witnesses denouncing their earlier statements anger that the actions of their troops and and of Saudi officials mediating to obtain that security services have created in Lebanon, and Syrian officials be interrogated on Syria’s the speed with which the Lebanese changed terms. The tension eased only on December from seeing Syria as a protector (after the civil 15, following the publication of the second war) to an occupant. The pride of having Mehlis report when no sanctions were decided significant support from key Lebanese actors and the controversial UN investigator remained, especially as it came from the resigned. At this moment, it was thought that a popular secretary general of the Hizbollah, “deal” had been reached with the international Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, in a speech claiming community and that another would follow with obedience to the “Syria of the Assads”. In the Lebanon. But this feeling of reprieve was short following months, the Syrian public witnessed lived. The defection and declarations of former the dramatic return of hundreds of thousands vice-president Abdel Halim Khaddam, one of of poor Syrian workers from Lebanon, amid President Hafez Assad’s close collaborators rumors – exaggerated by the official Syrian and the artisan of Syria’s international and media - of Lebanese reprisals against them. Lebanese policies for decades, came as a The fact that many of the slogans of the shock. A widely broadcast parliamentary “”espoused anti-Syrian meeting accusing Khaddam of treason and views, has also contributed to the rise of an corruption worsened the situation. For a anti-Lebanese sentiment in Syria. The moment, in the early days of 2006, the Syrian predominant feeling during this period was power system appeared to be losing its that the events were part of an American- moorings. Israeli “plot” to push the Syrian troops out of Lebanon, to weaken Syria and to drive it as Economic or political reforms well as Lebanon into a situation of chaos and sectarian strife similar to ’s, now under The need for reforms has been under occupation. discussion in Syria since the end of the 1980s, but mainly in economic terms. It was in fact However, following the UN Security Council between 1986 and 1992 that the first resolution 1595 establishing an independent significant economic reforms were introduced, international investigative commission, the where mainly agriculture was liberalized and arrest in August of the heads of Lebanese subsidized (to achieve food independence) and security forces, the preliminary findings of the foreign imports freed from state monopolies first Mehlis report, and the Syrian authorities’ and administrative burden (leading to a first apparent lack of interest in establishing sharp increase of imports). Various laws and another thesis on the assassination, all these decrees, culminating in the investment law of developments led to a gradual shift within a 1991, and protectionist measures for local majority of public opinion towards admitting industries have, to a certain extent, permitted a Syria’s responsibility for the situation in private sector to develop, shifting the country Lebanon. This constituted a sea change in the out of socialist and state capitalist practices. country. The financial crisis of 1986 was the major motivation for these reforms. The ensuing rise With this change, albeit with the belief that the in oil production, the flow of financial President himself is not implicated, Syrians transfers from Syrian expatriates (in particular became worried about the price they would from the Gulf countries and Lebanon), and the pay, especially since Resolution 1636, which improving prospects of peace in the Middle followed the first Mehlis report on October 21, East contributed to unprecedented high growth raises the possibility of sanctions or even rates until 1996. 5

The absence of further reforms in the mid- the first that spells out explicitly the aim of 1990s slowed growth to the point of recession establishing a “social market economy”. in 1999. The death of President Hafez Assad Surprisingly, Dardari stated in his introductory and the accession of his son to the presidency speech that “this new reality cannot be faced have not changed these conditions, despite except within a long-term time frame of at bold measures announced such as the 2000 least two decades”. While addressing many decision to allow private banks in the country. important issues such as fiscal policies and The policies of President Bashar Assad in the budgets, the plan continues to rely on public first four years introduced even more investment and falls short of announcing any confusion. A sudden opening of trade with reform of the present public manufacturing Iraq, under UN sanctions, introduced sector or breaking public or private opportunities for low added value exports and monopolies. smuggling. The invasion of Iraq lead to a brutal termination of these economic The pace of reforms announced by Dardari is opportunities. Moreover, new openings were consistent with that described by President made for private operators directly linked to Bashar Assad’s important speech on the crisis the power system to establish new rent-seeking with the international community, following activities, such as in mobile phones, free trade the October 21 UN investigator report and zones, advertising, real estate, etc. Major Security Council resolution 1636: “the reason private monopolies appeared in the country, in for their anger is that I committed on internal direct competition with the rest of the private reforms and those reforms were not sector and with the unreformed state-owned implemented. (…) Economic reforms? They sector. want us to open for them our markets in a way contrary to our interests, in return of few Early in 2005, the State Planning Commission, pieces and gifts they make. (…) Some would headed by the newly appointed “reformist” say that the pace of reforms was fast and was Abdallah Dardari, released a comprehensive slowed down. I tell them: It was slow from the macroeconomic analysis of the country, the beginning. It was never fast to be realistic”. first official realistic look at the economy in decades. The report pointed to the critical Calls to speed up reforms increased, including situation of growing unemployment – (24% of from the now dismissed President’s adviser the workforce), poverty, low private who characterized the socio-economic investment, collapsing added value of the situation as a time bomb. The President of the public manufacturing sector, deteriorating Federations of Chambers of Commerce & productivity, inadequate financial, monetary Industries Rateb Shallah, cast aside his usual and fiscal policies, and an imminent rapid shift reserve when he stated in an officially in the oil trade balance from surplus to deficit. published interview: “I am somehow bored The report does not discuss the early 1990s of and tired (…) Planning for the future high growth, but it qualifies the 1996-2004 necessitates a strong shock and impulse. We period of low growth/recession as “the lost can withstand it (…).” And when asked about years” for the country. It also qualifies the his precise suggestions, he stated: “When I met policies in the period 2000-2004 as “having Mr. President a while ago, we spoke about discouraged growth and optimal investment of these subjects. The President says that those resources, as well as the development of are not among the priorities of the State. I human resources, while neglecting to focus on think that many are not considering the right increasing social justice, despite the heavy priorities (…)”. This direct criticism of the subsidies delivered by the government”. President and his team by the business community was unprecedented. In December 2005, the State Planning Commission presented the tenth five year plan, 6

The calls for reforms in Syria have thus former leader of the – changed in nature. While some reforms Political bureau, which separated from the implemented by the authorities have yielded officially backed communist party in the early some results, the business community is 1970s on the background of conflict over denouncing the “crony capitalism” of the alignment on the USSR. Turk criticized the economy and the unequal opportunities for all. involvement of Syrian troops in Lebanon in The population is criticizing the effects of 1976 and the brutal repression of lawyers and “structural adjustment” on their living other professional associations which conditions, the rise in unemployment and followed, as well as the massacres of poverty, and the absence of social protection. and Palmyra. He was named by the Hence calls for reform reflect a broad international press as the Syrian “Mandela”, consensus on the need for accelerating for the 18 years he spent in jail as a political economic reforms and initiating political prisoner. Freed in 1998, he was jailed again reforms. between 2001 and 2002.

Political Reforms or Regime Change The young president Bashar Assad benefited from a long “état de grâce”, unprecedented for During the 1990s, few in Syria dared to call any Syrian or Arab leader. He had no record of for for political reforms. Aref Dalila, a past corruption or repression. In contrast to all professor of Economics at the University of the “power system” leaders in their seventies Damascus, from an Alawi family, published (including Mr. Khaddam), his relative youth several articles during the 1990s calling for was welcomed by a mostly young Syrian linking economic and political reforms. One of population. The population expressed the activists of the “Committees for reviving however, the need for more freedom of speech Civil Society”, he was sentenced to jail by a and association, and the right to access the special court, and remains detained, even after modern world through the use of the internet the release in January 2006, of the other and mobile phones. Forums of debate spread detainees of the ‘Damascus spring’. Dalila was around the country where all aspects of the one of a few who stressed the need to address social, economic and political life were economic problems within their political discussed, except the status of the president. It context and to call for political reforms. He was the “Damascus Spring”, the name given to was one of the main organizers of the the civil society movement in Syria which “Economic Tuesdays”, a weekly gathering spread in 2000 and 2001, with flourishing organized by the Syrian Economic Sciences forums and debates. Society in Damascus, to discuss issues of reforms. In the 1990s, it constituted the only The movement started with articles by scholars authorized forum of discussion that enjoyed and intellectuals from leftist groups, but some freedom of speech, where notably Aref quickly spread beyond. An important step was Dalila and emerged as main the creation in April 2001 of the “Committees activists. After the “Damascus spring”, the for Reviving Civil Society” which grouped Economic Tuesdays lost much of their interest Syrian reformists in the first large political and impact. movement since the 1950, the “Atassi Forum”, as well as several human rights associations. When President Hafez Assad passed away, The Statement of the 1000, issued in January few dared to criticize the way in which the 2001, called for canceling the state of succession to the son had been arranged or emergency, restoring political freedoms, proposed a political alternative. Only Riad liberty of the press, a new electoral law, the Turk, recently liberated after strong independence of the judiciary, economic international pressures, dared so with no justice, the cancellation of the Baath as leading support from public opinion. Riad Turk is the party of the country, and gender equality. 7

The entire political spectrum was invited to Repression did not stop the “Damascus express opinions and the forums aimed to spring”, it merely scaled it down. Forums foster dialogue rather than create new political continued to gather, sporadically, at the will of parties. Liberals and businessmen joined the the security services. The authorities did allow discussions and contributed to its different new newspapers and magazines, but only initiatives. Baathists were invited by the those run by parties members of the ruling authorities to answer the critics. However, a National Progressive Front or by members of majority among them started voicing similar the ruling family. But even though they demands: an end to the state of emergency, exercised self-censorship, they, and some press freedom and freedom of association, and official newspapers, continued to spread the solving the problems of parts of the Syrian themes of the Damascus spring and criticisms Kurds without citizenship. of the political system in an unprecedented way. It was precisely at this moment that the authorities decided to crack down on the The invasion of Iraq by US and British troops “spring” by sending the prominent activists to quieted the social movements in Syria, but it trial before state security courts and by also gave a significant argument to the blaming the Baathists for supporting those “spring” advocates: the experience in Iraq claims. The new forms of social activity showed that a population suffering from through the multiplication of forums have dictatorship and repression could not resist shown their efficiency in creating a broad foreign invasion. Pressures on Syria from the movement. And while Islamist and religious US and its allies following the invasion ideas were not dominant, the authorities furthered strengthened the view that internal pointed to the risks of “Algerisation”, referring political reforms were needed to strengthen the to the civil war in Algeria between the State domestic front. It also took a particular and the Islamic movements. The word was importance after the shock created by Rafiq used by Mr. Abdel Halim Khaddam himself, Hariri’s assassination and the withdrawal of Vice-president at that time, in a famous speech Syrian troops from Lebanon. And President on February 18, 2001 at , Bashar Assad promised that reforms would be where he faced angry Baathists calling for accelerated at the Baath party congress of June economic and political reforms. The Khaddam 2005. speech announced the crackdown on the emerging social movement. The preparation of the Congress lead to intense debates. Activists of the civil forums Although the development of the Islamic and “reformist” Baathists joined efforts to movements in Syria in recent years has been prepare resolutions on issues such as ending much weaker than in Egypt, Jordan or the state of emergency and exceptional courts, Palestine, the population has considered them, canceling Article 8 of the constitution, ending along with Rifaat Assad “Brigade of Defense”, the Baath party’s role as “leader of state and responsible for the events of 1979-1982 which society”, establishing a new law on political culminated in the massacres of Hama and parties, banning parties set up on religious or Palmyra. The Muslim Brotherhood was ethnic basis, and resolving the Kurds’ banned in Syria and membership in the citizenship issue. The “power system” reacted movement condemned to death by law (law no to regain control of the situation. Not only 49 of 1980). The “Damascus Spring” hundreds of party members, including non- movement, animated mostly by secular elected ones, were invited to participate and activists, called for turning this page, through vote, but the president intervened personally at the cancellation of law no 49, and the the end of the congress for three hours to end integration of the Muslim Brotherhood as a the debates and to impose a pre-selected component of Syria political life. Regional Command, from which the old guard 8 of his father was eliminated. The resolutions Iraqi situation as well as in Palestine after the were also disappointing, resulting in the mere election of Hamas. formation of committees with the task of Internal factors however are more significant, developing a position on the various critical particularly on two levels. The first relates to issues related to political reforms, in the political forces in place in Syria and their preparation for the presidential election in attitude in the coming months. The different 2007 (!). opposition movements do not have yet a clear platform. The “Damascus Declaration”, Four months later, the “Damascus however important, does not define an Declaration” was announced in a press institutional framework for change. It is clear conference held courageously inside the that a stronger platform is needed to clarify the country. The Declaration calls for “radical issues for the Syrian public and to reassure change in the country, and the rejection of all them that change will not lead to chaos, like in forms of cosmetic or partial reforms that avoid Iraq. addressing the real issues”. The declaration was signed by most of the opposition groups in The second aspect is related to the nature of the country and a number of prominent public the political compromise upon which an figures, and it was joined by the Muslim institutional framework can be built. The Brotherhood the next day. openings made towards the Muslim Brotherhood in the Declaration – that “Islam is Will there really be a regime change? the religion of the majority” - is ambiguous and is unlikely to get the support of the At the moment of writing this paper, it is still Baathist reformists, nor of Syrian minorities, not easy to predict the outcome of the rapid of military personnel or the urban bourgeoisie, developments in Syria. The outcome will who are all very attached to the secular nature depend on both external and internal issues. of the state. Similarly, the citizenship and The major external factor will be the results of cultural and social rights of the kurds in Syria the international investigation on the should be clarified in a modern way. assassination of Rafiq Hariri and other Lebanese political figures. It is clear that the It is not clear if the civil society and political indictment of high ranking officials in the opposition movements in Syria will be able to killings will accelerate the process of reform in cope with the challenges posed by these issues, Syria, especially if these indictments reach the which result in large part from a suppression inner circle of the power system. Even the of political life over decade. It is not clear intense diplomatic efforts made by Saudi either, how the authorities themselves will face Arabia and Egypt to “normalize” relations the different challenges, even if the recent with Lebanon and to make special events of January 2006 have given them more arrangements for the hearings of the suspects, room to manoeuvre and the cohesion of the do not offer an alternative to this scenario. power system is still strong. It is not expected Until now no alternative theories showing that they will make any serious move towards other possible explanations for the alleviating the internal crisis before 2007. The have been put forward, even by outcome could be a protracted deterioration of the Syrian investigation team. Other external the situation until the political opposition is factors are related to the attitudes of the more organized, the situation is more mature regional and international powers to the for change, and the tense regional context implications of the situation, in particular improves. Israel’s attitude towards regime change in Damascus, Iran’s concern over the risk of loosing its last ally in the region, and the US need for the Syrian regime’s cooperation in the 9

Recommendations sectarian distrust, fueled by the loss of hope in reforms and peaceful change. The outcome Reforms are a must for Syria in order to could be catastrophic on the long run, advance the economic, social and political especially after the US invasion of Iraq opened development of its society, as well as to play a a Pandora’s box and generated chaos there. constructive role in regional and international The only chance of a better outcome is if cooperation. For this to succeed: Syrian civil society movements can be - The Syrian “power system” as well as transformed into a political force, aware of the the opposition and civil society various challenges and capable of instigating movements should avoid using or change while preserving the country’s relying on fundamentalist or sectarian institutions. ideas or groups, when promoting their policies. Such actions could endanger the very existence of Syria as a nation Recent ARI Publications state in the long run. - All internal parties should differentiate between the “power system” and state - Bewildering Parliamentary institutions, as there can be no Elections in Egypt, Dr. establishment of democracy and no Mohamad Abdel Salam economic development without strong - Peace and Constitution in state institutions which can deliver social peace and services. Institutional Sudan, Dr. Haidar Ibrahim transformations should be carried out - Egypt’s Presidential with a view to addressing the present Elections, Dr. Amr el social and political needs. Shoubaki - The international community should - Municipal Elections in Saudi help a peaceful reform process in Arabia, Dr. Pascal Ménoret Syria, by clarifying its commitment to the return of the occupied Golan - The Palestinian Electorate: Heights in the framework of a peace “Islamists are more capable process; the rights of the Palestinians to of leading the reform and a viable state and to independence; and state building process.”, Dr. a timetable for the withdrawal of the Khalil Shikaki occupation forces from Iraq. These regional factors are key components of a peaceful transition in Syria. - The Arab and international community should support the UN investigation on the Lebanese assassinations to deliver For further information, visit our documented proofs and to move to a website: fair trial for the indicted, so that this chapter can be closed and Syrian- www.arab-reform.net Lebanese relations be normalised.

The worst scenario for Syria would be the establishment of a process, already experienced in the 1970s, where the strengthening and closure of the “power system” would be accompanied by the development of extremist movements and