Driving Electric Vehicles Towards the Early Majority: the Importance of the Public Charging Infrastructure
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Driving electric vehicles towards the early majority: The importance of the public charging infrastructure Author: Pico van Heemstra Student Number: 10670289 Supervisor: Dr. René Bohnsack Date: 29/6/2015 Study: Msc. Business Administration – Strategy Abstract As the global awareness for carbon emission reduction grows, the transition towards electric mobility has gained increased attention over recent years. However, the limited battery capacities, and the associated range anxiety, of electric vehicles in their current state cause increased complexity and compatibility issues implying that this new technology cannot gain a relative advantage over traditional cars and therefore faces difficulties in achieving widespread adoption. To overcome these barriers, the erection of an extensive charging infrastructure has become clear, however this development faces a chicken-and-egg dilemma; EV adoption will only grow if there are enough charging stations and charging stations will only be placed if there are enough EVs to make the investment worthwhile. This calls for a rigorous understanding of the demand and supply needs forces behind charging stations. By applying regressions analyses to investigate the relationship between neighbourhood characteristics and visitors’ use of the public charging infrastructure in Amsterdam, this thesis provides infrastructure developers with valuable insights regarding charging preferences and behaviour and a conceptual tool that can be used to design strategies for public charging infrastructure deployment in urban environments. 2 Table of Contents Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Glossary of terms and acronyms .............................................................................................................................. 4 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 5 1.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 5 1.2 Research question ........................................................................................................................................... 9 1.3 Structure ........................................................................................................................................................ 11 2. Case background .................................................................................................................................................. 13 2.1 General .......................................................................................................................................................... 13 2.2 The Netherlands and Amsterdam ............................................................................................................... 14 3. Theoretical framework ........................................................................................................................................ 18 3.1 Adoption and diffusion of innovations ....................................................................................................... 18 3.1.1 Adopter categories .................................................................................................................................. 18 3.1.2 Innovation characteristics ....................................................................................................................... 20 3.1.3 Diffusion of electric vehicle ................................................................................................................... 22 3.2 Infrastructure dependent innovations ........................................................................................................ 25 3.2.1 The chicken-and-egg dilemma ............................................................................................................... 25 3.2.2 Overcoming the chicken-and-egg dilemma ........................................................................................... 27 3.3 Charging infrastructure planning ............................................................................................................... 30 3.3.1 Supply side perspective .......................................................................................................................... 31 3.3.2 Demand side perspective ........................................................................................................................ 34 3.3.3 Mixed perspective .................................................................................................................................. 35 3.4 Literature gap and research focus .............................................................................................................. 39 4. Research design .................................................................................................................................................... 46 4.1 Conceptual models ........................................................................................................................................ 46 4.1.1 Location .................................................................................................................................................. 46 4.1.2 Time of day ............................................................................................................................................ 47 4.1.3 Duration .................................................................................................................................................. 48 4.2 Data collection ............................................................................................................................................... 49 4.2.1 Public charging data ............................................................................................................................... 49 4.2.2 Land use data .......................................................................................................................................... 53 4.2.3 Parking cost data .................................................................................................................................... 54 4.3 Limitations .................................................................................................................................................... 54 5. Data analysis and results ..................................................................................................................................... 56 5.1 Location ......................................................................................................................................................... 56 5.1.1 Descriptive statistics ............................................................................................................................... 56 5.1.2 Correlation analysis ................................................................................................................................ 57 5.1.3 Regressions analysis ............................................................................................................................... 59 5.2 Time of day .................................................................................................................................................... 61 5.2.1 Descriptive statistics ............................................................................................................................... 61 5.2.2 Moderation analysis ............................................................................................................................... 61 5.3 Duration ......................................................................................................................................................... 64 5.3.1 Descriptive statistics ............................................................................................................................... 64 5.3.2 Regression analysis ................................................................................................................................ 64 6. Discussion ............................................................................................................................................................. 66 6.1 Location ......................................................................................................................................................... 66 6.2 Time of day .................................................................................................................................................... 67 6.3 Duration ......................................................................................................................................................... 68 6.4 Implications for infrastructure development ............................................................................................. 69 7. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................ 71 8. Recommendations for future research ..............................................................................................................