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Job Name:2176826 Date:15-03-04 PDF Page:2176826pbc.p1.pdf Color: Cyan Magenta Yellow Black TheSoviei IDterveDtioa iD AfghanistaD Alfred L.lIonks American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research Washington and London Distributed to the Trade by National Book Network, 15200 NBN Way, Blue Ridge Summit, PA 17214. To order call toll free 1-800-462-6420 or 1-717-794-3800. For all other inquiries please contact the AEI Press, 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 or call 1-800-862-5801. Alfred L. Monks is associate professor of political science at the University of Wyoming. ISBN 0-8447-3431-4 Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 81-65770 AEI Studies 314 © 1981 by the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C., and London. All rights reserved. No part of this publi cation may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without per mission in writing from the American Enterprise Institute except in the case of brief quotations embodied in news articles, critical articles, or reviews. The views expressed in the publications of the American Enterprise Institute are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the staff, advisory panels, officers, or trustees of AEI. "American Enterprise Institute" and @) are registered service marks of the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. Printed in the United States of America Contents 1 INTRODUCTION 1 2 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND 2 SOVIET MOTIVES FOR THE INTERVENTION IN 3 AFGHANISTAN 18 Soviet Security 20 Hard-line Elements in the Ascendancy within Soviet Decision-Making Circles 22 Hafizullah Amin and the Political Situation in Afghanistan 26 The Soviets and the Regional Balance in Southwest Asia 28 CONSEQUENCES OF THE SOVIET INTERVENTION IN 4 AFGHANISTAN 31 5 SOVIET OPTIONS IN AFGHANISTAN 35 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MILITARY DOCTRINE AND 6 THE SOVIET INTERVENTION IN AFGHANISTAN 40 7 POLICY OPTIONS FOR THE WEST 49 8 POLICY SUGGESTIONS FOR THE WEST 52 9 CONCLUSION 58 AFGHANISTAN AND NEIGHBORING REGIONS SOURCE: Adapted from "Russian Advances in Central Asia," Louis Dupree, Afghanistan (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1973), p. 324, and "Afghanistan," Ludwig Adamec, Afghanistan's Foreign Relations to the Mid-Twentieth Century (Tucson: University of Arizona Press, 1974), p. x. 1 Introduction A complete analysis of the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in late 1979 must wait until enough time passes for that event to be eval uated in terms of long-range Soviet military and political objectives. Meanwhile, we may trace the history of Russian/Soviet-Afghan re lations, we may consider why the U.S.S.R. acted as it did, and we may discuss the intervention as it relates to wider considerations of global policies and of Soviet military doctrine. The following ques tions will be examined in this study: (1) Do Russian and Soviet history offer evidence to support the notion that tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union intended to employ Afghanistan as an instrument to further Russian/Soviet goals? (2) Why did the Soviet Union invade another country at a time so politically and diplomatically unpropi tious? (3) What are the consequences-both international and do mestic-of the Soviet move into Afghanistan? (4) Did Soviet military doctrine have any influence on the Soviet intervention in Afghani stan? (5) What are the political options for the West in the wake of the Soviet action, and what policy suggestions can be offered? 1 2 Historical Background The history of Russian/Soviet-Afghan relations reveals a pattern of persistent Russian expansionism in Central Asia, and a concomitant fear from the nineteenth century onward, shared by both Britain and Afghanistan, that Russia might expand into neighboring Afghanistan. The British fear was shaped by an apprehension that Russia, having occupied several important areas in Central Asia, would turn south to Afghanistan, thus threatening British interests in that area. Afghan fears were motivated by the strong desires of Afghan rulers to build a neutral, independent, and economically viable state. This aim, intensified by the xenophobic tendencies of several of Afghanistan's early rulers, made Afghan apprehensions of an increasingly powerful Russia on their northern border understandable. Beginning in the nineteenth century, Afghanistan became the object of British-Russian imperial rivalries. 1 British apprehensions of Russia's long-range political and economic gains in Central Asia matched Russian fears of an extension of British influence from Af ghanistan into Central Asia, where Russia had important commercial interests. 2 Russia was also apprehensive that a revitalized Sunni 1 British-Russian rivalries began to center on Afghanistan as early as 1839, when the British, alarmed by Russia's support of Persian claims on Herat, invaded Afghanistan from India. British fears centered on an apprehension that Russia might be tempted to invade India through Afghanistan. Russia was primarily interested in Bukhara in Central Asia. Vartian Gregorian, The Emergence of Modern Afghanistan (Stanford: Stan ford University Press, 1969), p. 108. Another specialist states that British-Russian influence in Afghanistan began as early as 1828 after Persia had become a virtual Russian sphere of influence. See Ronald R. Rader, "The Russian Military and Af ghanistan: An Historical Perspective," Soviet Armed Forces Review Annual, David R. Jones, ed., vol. 4 (Gulf Breeze, Fla.: Academic International Press, 1980), p. 308. 2 Between 1758 and 1853 the- amount of Russia's exports to Central Asia increased twelve and one-half times, while the value of imports increased sixteen times. Between 1840 and 1860, the value of Russian trade with Central Asia doubled. Gregorian, Emergence of Modern Afghanistan, p. 102. 2 Muslim power in the recently conquered Central Asian khanates might form centers of potential Pan-Islamic uprisings, undermining Russia's recently acquired economic gains. The British-Russian trea ties of 1855 and 1857 strengthened the British position in Afghanistan and reduced possible Russian encroachments against Afghanistan. Despite these successes, there were deep divisions within British foreign policy circles regarding the proper policy to be pursued vis a-vis Afghanistan. These were sharpened as Russia made further advances in Central Asia, including political and economic gains in Khiva and Kokand in 1864, the capture of Tashkent in 1865, the annexation of Samarkand in 1869,3 and political and economic gains in Bukhara beginning in 1868. A temporary cessation of British-Rus sian rivalry in Afghanistan and Central Asia occurred in 1873, when the two powers concluded an agreement by which Russia recognized the northern and northwestern frontiers of Afghanistan and agreed to consider that country outside the Russian sphere of influence. In the same year, however, Russia occupied Khiva, and in 1875 occu pied Kokand. These events killed the British and Russian plan for a buffer zone between the British and Russian spheres of influence. According to the plan, Britain would have guaranteed the inde pendence of Kalat, Afghanistan, and Yarkand, and Russia would have guaranteed autonomy for Khiva, Kokand, and Bukhara. In 1874-1880, militant groups in both Russia and Britain came to power, and British-Russian rivalry in Central Asia and Afghanistan intensified. 4 British aims were to prevent further Russian advances in those areas, to protect India's border, and to bring Afghanistan under stricter British supervision and control. Russian aims were not so clear, since various groups advanced different positions. Some proposed that in the event of a British-Russian war in Europe, Russia should conclude an alliance with the Afghan amir (ruler) and then advance to India. Others proposed a policy of simultaneous support for rival claimants to the Afghan throne to foment internal unrest. An even more militant group proposed that the Transcaspian railroad be extended to the Afghan village of Herat in the northwest and to Kandahar in the south. They argued that this threat to India could paralyze British anti-Russian policies in Europe and might encourage Great Britain to conclude a mutually advantageous agreement with Russia over their conflicting European interests. The Russo-Turkish War of 1877-1878, which resulted in sizable Russian gains, height- 3 This put Russian power at the Amu Oarya on the outer perimeter of a weak Af ghanistan state that by 1862 had been united tenuously under Oost Mohammed. Rader, "The Russian Military and Afghanistan," p. 309. 4 Gregorian, Emergence of Modern Afghanistan, pp. 108-110. 3 ened British fears of Russian long-range objectives and strengthened the position of those in England who favored a forward policy in Afghanistan. 5 On the other hand, the Second Anglo-Afghan War of 1879, which was the result of the British failure to obtain a diplomatic settlement with the Afghan amir assuring British influence in Af ghanistan and securing the Indian frontier, resulted in substantial benefits for the British in Afghanistan: the ouster of the anti-British ruler, Sher Ali, the acquisition of the strategic Afghan districts of Kurram Pass, Pishin, and Sibi, a permanent British representation in Afghanistan, supervision by the British of Afghan foreign affairs, and the transformation of Baluchistan into a British protectorate. The above developments led to a reexamination of British policy in Afghanistan. All proposals advanced in London to partition Af ghanistan into various principalities and to make Persia, rather than Afghanistan, the principal bulwark in the defense of India, were shelved, however, when the new Liberal government came to power. The new British policy toward Afghanistan was simple: to maintain a well-defined Indian frontier and to keep Afghanistan under British political control. The British accepted Abdur Rahman Khan as the new ruler of Afghanistan. While Rahman had full sovereignty over the internal affairs of his country, Britain retained full control over Afghanistan's foreign affairs, which it jealously guarded against in fluence from other powers, especially Russia.