Sen. Menendez Unaffected by Donor Scandal

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Contact: PATRICK MURRAY Please attribute this information to: 732-263-5858 (office) Monmouth University/ Asbury Park Press Poll 732-979-6769 (cell) [email protected] For more information: Monmouth University Polling Institute West Long Branch, NJ 07764 Released: www.monmouth.edu/polling Thursday, February 14, 2013

SEN. MENENDEZ UNAFFECTED BY DONOR SCANDAL

Jersey voters not keen on Geraldo Senate run

While many New Jersey voters have heard about the potential donor scandal surrounding Sen. Bob Menendez, few have formed an opinion about his role and his job approval rating has held steady. Looking ahead to 2014, the Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Poll also finds that many voters prefer an alternative to incumbent Frank Lautenberg, but Geraldo Rivera is unlikely to be their pick.

Senator Menendez – Two thirds (68%) of New Jersey voters have heard about Sen. Menendez’s trips to the Dominican Republic on a donor’s plane. However, few have formed an opinion on Sen. Menendez’s involvement in any potential illegal or unethical activity. Just 24% believe he was involved in wrong-doing while 11% say he was not. Another 65% don’t know enough to form an opinion or have not heard about the issue at all. These views are somewhat less favorable, though, among the one-third of New Jersey voters who have heard a lot about the issue. Nearly half (47%) of this aware group say Menendez was probably involved in wrong-doing compared to just 18% who say he was not. Among Democrats who have heard a lot, 36% think the senator was involved in wrong-doing and 31% say he was not. Among aware independent voters, opinion is 47% involved to 11% not involved, and among aware Republicans it is 65% involved to 12% not involved. Overall, 28% of voters say the tips leading to the investigation were likely to have been politically motivated compared to 12% who say they were not, while 60% have no opinion or are unaware

Monmouth University Polling Institute 2/14/13

of the investigation. Among those who have heard a lot about it, twice as many suspect that the investigation was politically motivated (50%) as say it was not (25%). “Right now, the unfolding story has not hurt Senator Menendez’s standing among New Jersey voters, in part because very few voters have been following it all that closely,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. Currently, 41% of Garden State voters approve of the job Sen. Menendez is doing, 31% disapprove and 28% have no opinion. These results are similar to prior ratings over the last two years.

Senator Lautenberg – More New Jersey voters approve (44%) than disapprove (27%) of Sen. Frank Lautenberg’s job performance. Another 29% offer no opinion on the U.S. Senator who was first took office 30 years ago. These ratings are comparable to voter opinion measured over the last two years. While Lautenberg’s ratings are more positive than negative, many voters would prefer to have someone else hold that seat after next year’s election. Assuming that a Democrat will win in 2014, just 15% of New Jersey voters prefer that Lautenberg continue to serve, while 35% prefer that a different Democrat take that seat. Another 42% say it really doesn’t matter to them which Democrat holds that seat. Among Democratic voters, 22% prefer Lautenberg and 31% prefer someone else; among independents, 9% prefer Lautenberg and 43% prefer a different Democrat; and among Republicans, 15% prefer Lautenberg – if it has to be a Democrat – and 33% would prefer another Democrat. Interestingly, Lautenberg’s age does not appear to be a determining factor in the lack of voter enthusiasm for another term. Just 34% of Garden State voters say he is too old to be an effective senator. Nearly half (48%) disagree with this view and 18% have no opinion. These findings are very similar to voter opinion when he was running for re-election in 2008 at the age of 84. The lack of concern over Sen. Lautenberg’s age is probably related to the fact that most voters have no idea how old he is. Lautenberg turned 89 last month, but just 39% of voters estimate his age at 80 or older while 46% think he is in his 60s or 70s, and 15% cannot make a guess. These estimates are slightly more accurate than September 2008, when 25% of New Jersey voters thought Lautenberg was in his 80s or older, 45% thought he was in his 60s or 70s, and 30% would not estimate his age. Among voters who are able to peg Lautenberg’s age accurately (at least within a decade of 89), 57% say he is too old to be an effective senator and 33% say his age does not hamper his ability to serve. Among those who significantly underestimate Lautenberg’s age, just 21% say he is too old while 66% say his age is appropriate for the demands of his office.

Monmouth University Polling Institute 2/14/13

Senator Booker ? – Potential Democratic primary voters were asked who they would choose in a crowded – and extremely hypothetical – field for the 2014 U.S. Senate nomination. Four-in-ten (40%) say they would choose Newark Mayor Cory Booker, 25% would vote for Lautenberg, 4% would support Congressman Frank Pallone, and 2% would support State Senate President Steve Sweeney. Another 2% say they would vote for Alan Rosenthal. Professor Rosenthal is unlikely to be a candidate and it’s unclear that Democratic voters recall his service as the tie-breaking member of the state redistricting commission who sided with the Democrats’ legislative map. But this result indicates the challenges other candidates would have gaining traction in a race that featured Booker and Lautenberg. If Sen. Lautenberg decides not to run in 2014, Democratic primary voters are unsure whether Mayor Booker should get a clear path to the nomination. Just under 4-in-10 (38%) say the party should rally around Booker while 31% say other Democratic candidates should get into the race. Another 23% of potential Democratic primary voters say it doesn’t really matter to them what happens in the primary. Mayor Booker continues to receive high ratings from New Jersey voters, currently clocking in at 55% favorable to 9% unfavorable, with 36% having no opinion. This is a few notches higher than his September 2012 rating of 49% favorable to 13% unfavorable. Other potential 2014 Senate candidates don’t have anywhere near the positive opinion or name recognition as Booker. Congressman Pallone has a 20% favorable to 7% unfavorable rating, with 72% offering no opinion. State Sen. Sweeney has a 22% favorable to 14% unfavorable rating, with 64% offering no opinion. General Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver, who has also indicated her interest in the seat, has a 13% favorable to 9% unfavorable rating, with 78% offering no opinion. Ratings for all three officials are nearly identical to voter opinion of them in September 2012.

Senator Rivera ??? – T.V. host Geraldo Rivera had New Jersey and national political circles jumping recently when he suggested he may run for Lautenberg’s seat as a Republican. New Jersey voters do not seem to be keen on the idea. Just 1-in-4 say they are very (9%) or somewhat (17%) likely to vote for Rivera should he choose to run, while nearly 2-in-3 (65%) say they would not be likely. This includes a majority (51%) who say they would not consider voting for Rivera at all. Even among GOP voters, just 44% say they would be at least somewhat likely to vote for Rivera while 48% would be unlikely. About half of New Jersey voters have formed an opinion of Rivera, and it is evenly divided – 26% have a favorable view of him and 27% have an unfavorable view. The remaining 47% have no opinion.

Monmouth University Polling Institute 2/14/13

President Obama – The poll also tabs Pres. Barack Obama’s job rating among New Jersey voters at 60% approve to 33% disapprove. His positive job number is statistically similar to the 58% approve to 35% disapprove rating he received in December. Nominally, though, this marks only the second time Obama reached 60% approval in the Garden State. The previous 60% approval rating came in May 2011, shortly after Osama bin Laden was killed. The Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Poll was conducted by telephone with 803 New Jersey adults from February 6 to 10, 2013. This sample has a margin of error of + 3.5 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute and originally published by the Asbury Park Press and its sister publications (Courier-Post, Courier News, Daily Journal, Daily Record, and Home News Tribune).

DATA TABLES

The questions referred to in this release are as follows: (* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? REGISTERED TOTAL PARTY ID RACE AGE GENDER VOTER Black & Yes No Dem Ind Rep White 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female Hisp Approve 62% 60% 73% 90% 52% 33% 54% 76% 76% 58% 56% 61% 64% Disapprove 31% 33% 19% 5% 40% 60% 39% 17% 18% 35% 36% 33% 29% (VOL) Don’t know 7% 7% 9% 4% 8% 7% 7% 7% 5% 7% 8% 6% 7%

TREND: Registered February December April February October August May September July April February October July voters only 2013 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 Approve 60% 58% 54% 51% 47% 52% 60% 47% 51% 54% 53% 54% 59% Disapprove 33% 35% 41% 42% 46% 39% 36% 44% 42% 41% 38% 33% 29% (VOL) Don’t know 7% 6% 5% 6% 7% 9% 4% 9% 6% 5% 9% 14% 12% Unwtd N 697 726 692 709 693 730 725 726 747 719 716 785 792

[QUESTIONS 2 AND 3 WERE ROTATED] 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Frank Lautenberg is doing as United States Senator? REGISTERED TOTAL PARTY ID RACE AGE GENDER VOTER Black & Yes No Dem Ind Rep White 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female Hisp Approve 43% 44% 38% 56% 34% 34% 41% 46% 45% 41% 43% 39% 46% Disapprove 24% 27% 15% 13% 32% 35% 29% 14% 14% 27% 30% 29% 20% (VOL) Don’t know 33% 29% 47% 31% 34% 31% 30% 40% 41% 32% 26% 31% 34%

TREND: Registered February April February October August May July October July April January voters only 2013 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2010 2008 2008 2008 2008 Approve 44% 41% 39% 43% 41% 48% 47% 48% 45% 48% 43% Disapprove 27% 32% 33% 31% 32% 30% 33% 28% 33% 31% 28% (VOL) Don’t know 29% 27% 28% 27% 26% 21% 21% 24% 22% 21% 30% Unwtd N 697 692 709 693 730 725 747 900 874 720 698

Monmouth University Polling Institute 2/14/13

3. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bob Menendez is doing as United States Senator? REGISTERED TOTAL PARTY ID RACE AGE GENDER VOTER Black & Yes No Dem Ind Rep White 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female Hisp Approve 41% 41% 44% 58% 32% 28% 35% 53% 50% 39% 38% 40% 43% Disapprove 28% 31% 16% 15% 36% 42% 35% 15% 16% 32% 35% 32% 25% (VOL) Don’t know 30% 28% 40% 27% 31% 30% 30% 33% 34% 29% 27% 28% 32%

TREND: Registered February April February October August May July October April January voters only 2013 2012 2012 2011 2011 2011 2010 2008 2008 2008 Approve 41% 40% 41% 43% 38% 46% 38% 34% 41% 37% Disapprove 31% 25% 26% 29% 33% 28% 33% 25% 31% 25% (VOL) Don’t know 28% 35% 33% 28% 29% 26% 29% 41% 28% 37% Unwtd N 697 692 709 693 730 725 747 900 720 698

4. I’m going to read you a few names. Please tell me if your general impression of each is favorable or unfavorable, or if you don’t really have an opinion. [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

Newark Mayor Cory Booker REGISTERED TOTAL PARTY ID RACE AGE GENDER VOTER Black & Yes No Dem Ind Rep White 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female Hisp Favorable 51% 55% 33% 56% 48% 50% 53% 48% 41% 55% 56% 52% 50% Unfavorable 9% 9% 9% 6% 9% 13% 9% 9% 8% 8% 11% 10% 8% No opinion 40% 36% 58% 38% 42% 38% 38% 42% 52% 37% 34% 39% 42%

TREND: Registered February September voters only 2013 2012 Favorable 55% 49% Unfavorable 9% 13% No opinion 36% 38% Unwtd N 697 715

State Senate President Steve Sweeney REGISTERED TOTAL PARTY ID RACE AGE GENDER VOTER Black & Yes No Dem Ind Rep White 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female Hisp Favorable 21% 22% 17% 26% 20% 18% 21% 25% 20% 22% 21% 23% 20% Unfavorable 12% 14% 7% 6% 17% 17% 17% 4% 7% 13% 17% 16% 9% No opinion 66% 64% 76% 68% 64% 65% 62% 71% 73% 64% 62% 61% 71%

TREND: Registered February September voters only 2013 2012 Favorable 22% 19% Unfavorable 14% 16% No opinion 64% 65% Unwtd N 697 715

State Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver REGISTERED TOTAL PARTY ID RACE AGE GENDER VOTER Black & Yes No Dem Ind Rep White 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female Hisp Favorable 14% 13% 18% 20% 11% 8% 11% 18% 19% 11% 13% 14% 13% Unfavorable 8% 9% 4% 6% 9% 10% 9% 9% 5% 9% 10% 10% 6% No opinion 79% 78% 78% 74% 79% 82% 80% 72% 76% 80% 77% 75% 80%

TREND: Registered February September voters only 2013 2012 Favorable 13% 14% Unfavorable 9% 10% No opinion 78% 76% Unwtd N 697 715

Monmouth University Polling Institute 2/14/13

U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg REGISTERED TOTAL PARTY ID RACE AGE GENDER VOTER Black & Yes No Dem Ind Rep White 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female Hisp Favorable 41% 44% 25% 50% 36% 33% 41% 39% 31% 43% 47% 38% 44% Unfavorable 21% 23% 13% 11% 26% 31% 26% 10% 9% 25% 26% 23% 19% No opinion 38% 33% 61% 39% 38% 35% 32% 51% 61% 31% 26% 39% 38%

TREND: Registered February October September July April voters only 2013 2008 2008 2008 2008 Favorable 44% 45% 42% 34% 43% Unfavorable 23% 24% 28% 27% 30% No opinion 33% 30% 30% 39% 27% Unwtd N 697 900 689 874 720 U.S. Senator Bob Menendez REGISTERED TOTAL PARTY ID RACE AGE GENDER VOTER Black & Yes No Dem Ind Rep White 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female Hisp Favorable 39% 39% 38% 53% 31% 29% 32% 54% 39% 42% 36% 35% 43% Unfavorable 26% 29% 14% 15% 34% 34% 32% 16% 17% 29% 32% 32% 21% No opinion 35% 32% 48% 32% 34% 37% 35% 30% 44% 29% 32% 32% 36%

TREND: Registered February September July October September July voters only 2013 2012 2012 2006 2006 2006 Favorable 39% 41% 36% 33% 29% 29% Unfavorable 29% 23% 20% 27% 22% 13% No opinion 32% 35% 44% 40% 49% 57% Unwtd N 697 715 678 647 630 670

Congressman Frank Pallone REGISTERED TOTAL PARTY ID RACE AGE GENDER VOTER Black & Yes No Dem Ind Rep White 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female Hisp Favorable 20% 20% 15% 25% 15% 20% 20% 17% 20% 22% 16% 21% 18% Unfavorable 7% 7% 7% 5% 10% 5% 7% 6% 5% 6% 10% 8% 5% No opinion 73% 72% 77% 71% 75% 74% 72% 77% 76% 72% 74% 70% 76%

TREND: Registered February September voters only 2013 2012 Favorable 20% 17% Unfavorable 7% 8% No opinion 72% 75% Unwtd N 697 715

T.V. host Geraldo Rivera REGISTERED TOTAL PARTY ID RACE AGE GENDER VOTER Black & Yes No Dem Ind Rep White 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female Hisp Favorable 25% 26% 23% 24% 22% 35% 27% 30% 17% 27% 32% 27% 24% Unfavorable 25% 27% 14% 27% 26% 21% 29% 19% 11% 33% 27% 24% 25% No opinion 50% 47% 64% 49% 52% 44% 44% 51% 72% 41% 40% 48% 50%

Monmouth University Polling Institute 2/14/13

[THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS WERE ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY: moe=+/-3.7%]

5. Senator Frank Lautenberg is up for reelection in 2014. For the sake of argument, let’s say that a Democrat will hold onto that seat. If it has to be a Democrat, would you prefer that Lautenberg continue serving or would you prefer that another Democrat serve, or doesn’t it matter to you? PARTY ID RACE AGE GENDER Registered Black & Voters Dem Ind Rep White 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female Hisp Prefer Lautenberg 15% 22% 9% 15% 13% 23% 7% 18% 16% 13% 17% Prefer another Democrat 35% 31% 43% 33% 42% 19% 19% 34% 46% 38% 33% Doesn’t matter 42% 43% 41% 40% 39% 47% 70% 39% 31% 43% 42% (VOL) Refuses choice 2% 0% 2% 5% 3% 0% 0% 3% 2% 2% 2% (VOL) Don’t Know 5% 4% 5% 7% 3% 10% 4% 6% 5% 4% 7%

[QUESTIONS 6 AND 7 WERE ASKED OF POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY: moe=+/-7.1%] 6. If the choices in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate were Frank Lautenberg, Cory Booker, Steve Sweeney, Frank Pallone, or Alan Rosenthal, for whom would you vote? Potential Primary Voters Frank Lautenberg 25% Cory Booker 40% Steve Sweeney 2% Frank Pallone 4% Alan Rosenthal 2% (VOL) Someone else 5% (VOL) Don’t Know 22%

7. If Frank Lautenberg decides to step down next year, should state Democrats rally around Cory Booker as the nominee or should other candidates get into the primary race, or doesn’t it matter to you? Potential Primary Voters Rally around Booker 38% Other candidates in the race 31% Doesn’t matter 23% (VOL) Don’t Know 8%

8. Do you agree or disagree that Frank Lautenberg is too old to be an effective senator?

PARTY ID RACE AGE GENDER Registered Black & Voters Dem Ind Rep White 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female Hisp Agree 34% 29% 39% 35% 38% 19% 20% 30% 48% 41% 28% Disagree 48% 56% 40% 48% 47% 55% 55% 52% 39% 43% 53% (VOL) Don’t know 18% 15% 20% 17% 15% 27% 26% 17% 13% 16% 19%

TREND: Registered February October September July April January voters only 2013 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 Agree 34% 29% 31% 31% 41% 34% Disagree 48% 61% 57% 54% 46% 51% (VOL) Don’t know 18% 10% 12% 15% 13% 15% Unwtd N 697 451 689 435 639 698

Monmouth University Polling Institute 2/14/13

9. And how old do you think he is? Your best guess is fine. PARTY ID RACE AGE GENDER Registered Black & Voters Dem Ind Rep White 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female Hisp Under 70 17% 21% 14% 16% 15% 26% 37% 18% 5% 20% 15% 70 to 79 29% 28% 27% 33% 30% 23% 28% 30% 28% 28% 30% 80 to 89 33% 31% 37% 32% 37% 21% 9% 34% 45% 31% 34% 90 or older 6% 4% 8% 5% 6% 4% 4% 4% 9% 8% 4% (VOL) Don’t know 15% 16% 15% 14% 11% 27% 22% 13% 13% 13% 17%

TREND: Registered February September voters only 2013 2008 Under 70 17% 12% 70 to 79 29% 33% 80 to 89 33% 23% 90 or older 6% 2% (VOL) Don’t know 15% 30% Unwtd N 697 808

10. How likely would you be to vote for Geraldo Rivera if he ran for U.S. Senate as a Republican in 2014 – very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely? PARTY ID RACE AGE GENDER Registered Black & Voters Dem Ind Rep White 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female Hisp Very likely 9% 6% 8% 14% 8% 11% 8% 7% 12% 9% 9% Somewhat likely 17% 8% 19% 30% 20% 10% 24% 15% 16% 20% 15% Not too likely 14% 16% 13% 14% 14% 18% 20% 12% 13% 15% 13% Not at all likely 51% 62% 50% 34% 50% 54% 42% 57% 48% 47% 54% (VOL) Don’t Know 9% 8% 10% 8% 9% 7% 7% 9% 11% 8% 10%

11. How much have you heard or read about trips Senator Bob Menendez took to the Dominican Republic on a donor’s plane – a lot, a little, or nothing at all? PARTY ID RACE AGE GENDER Registered Black & Voters Dem Ind Rep White 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female Hisp A lot 32% 31% 36% 30% 36% 22% 14% 27% 48% 34% 30% A little 36% 33% 40% 34% 37% 34% 23% 41% 37% 34% 37% Nothing at all 30% 33% 22% 36% 26% 39% 63% 30% 11% 30% 30% (VOL) Don’t know 2% 3% 2% 1% 1% 5% 0% 2% 4% 2% 2%

12. Do you think Senator Menendez was involved in any wrong-doing or not, or haven’t you heard enough about this? [IF “YES” ASK: Do you think this is serious or not too serious?] PARTY ID RACE AGE GENDER Registered Black & Voters Dem Ind Rep White 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female Hisp Yes, serious 17% 9% 22% 22% 19% 12% 7% 18% 21% 21% 13% Yes, not too serious 7% 7% 8% 4% 7% 5% 5% 7% 7% 8% 6% No, not involved 11% 18% 6% 11% 11% 12% 5% 11% 15% 11% 11% Haven’t heard enough 33% 30% 40% 25% 35% 27% 20% 32% 42% 28% 38% Not aware of issue (Q11) 32% 36% 24% 37% 27% 44% 63% 32% 15% 33% 32%

13. Do you think it is likely or not likely that the tips leading to this investigation were politically motivated to hurt Senator Menendez, or haven’t you heard enough about this? PARTY ID RACE AGE GENDER Registered Black & Voters Dem Ind Rep White 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female Hisp Likely 28% 33% 31% 16% 29% 26% 16% 21% 41% 29% 27% Not likely 12% 7% 15% 16% 14% 8% 6% 13% 14% 15% 9% Haven’t heard enough 28% 25% 30% 31% 30% 22% 15% 33% 30% 23% 32% Not aware of issue (Q11) 32% 36% 24% 37% 27% 44% 63% 32% 15% 33% 32%

Monmouth University Polling Institute 2/14/13

The Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from February 6 to 10, 2013 with a statewide random sample of 803 adult residents, including 603 contacted on a landline telephone and 200 on a cell phone. Live interviewing services were provided by Braun Research, Inc. and the telephone sample was obtained from Survey Sampling International. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey questionnaire design, data weighting and analysis. For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups, such as separate figures reported by gender or party identification, are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) 38% Dem 49% Male 28% 18-34 63% White 41% Ind 51% Female 40% 35-54 12% Black 21% Rep 32% 55+ 16% Hispanic 9% Asian/Other Registered Voter Sample (weighted) 37% Dem 47% Male 21% 18-34 68% White 40% Ind 53% Female 42% 35-54 12% Black 23% Rep 37% 55+ 13% Hispanic 7% Asian/Other

MARGIN OF ERROR REGISTERED TOTAL PARTY ID RACE AGE GENDER VOTER Black & Yes No Dem Ind Rep White 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female Hisp Unweighted N 803 697 106 292 322 164 585 151 155 257 380 387 416 moe 3.5% 3.7% 9.5% 5.7% 5.5% 7.7% 4.1% 8.0% 7.9% 6.1% 5.0% 5.0% 4.8%

It is the Monmouth University Polling Institute’s policy to conduct surveys of all adult New Jersey residents, including voters and non-voters, on issues that affect the state. Specific voter surveys are conducted when appropriate during election cycles.

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