Demographic Trends: What Are the Implications for Alberta’S Beef Industry?

Demographic Trends: What are the Implications for Alberta’s Beef Industry?

A Presentation to

2008 Annual General Meeting Feeder Associations of Alberta

By Richard Loreto, Ph.D. President, R.A.L. Consulting Limited

Red Deer, Alberta February 2, 2008 www.ralconsulting.ca Demographic Analysis Overview

l Study of human populations l Key factors of analysis: » Sex » Ethnicity/race » Marital status and family structure » Births and deaths » Migration » AGE

www.ralconsulting.ca Demographic Analysis Overview

To become an amateur demographer you must understand:

l Two assumptions

l Template of “cohorts”

www.ralconsulting.ca Demographic Analysis Assumptions

AssumptionAssumption #1#1

EveryEvery yearyear youyou getget aa yearyear olderolder

www.ralconsulting.ca Demographic Analysis Assumptions

AssumptionAssumption #2#2

YouYou tendtend toto actact youryour ageage

www.ralconsulting.ca Garden Supplies and Services Canada, 2005 ($ per person)

Age Group All Ages

180

160

140

120

100

40 Average Annual Spending ($) 20

0 <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Age Group www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Demographic Analysis Assumptions

l Acting your age: » “Two-thirds of everything” (David K. Foot, Boom, Bust & Echo 2000) » Life cycle analysis of economic behaviour: how you spend your time and money » Strategic and long-term (10-20 years) » Baseline analysis (don’t forget the survey research, economic forecasting, policy analysis, etc.) www.ralconsulting.ca Demographic Analysis Cohorts

l Boom: 1947-1966 » 42-61 in 2008 » 30 percent of Canada’s population (Alberta, 29 percent) l Bust: 1967-1979 » 29-41 in 2008 » 18 percent of Canada’s population (Alberta, 20 percent) l Echo: 1980-1995 » 13-28 in 2008 » 22 percent of Canada’s population (Alberta, 24 percent) www.ralconsulting.ca Demographic Analysis

l Today’s presentation: » Major demographic trends in Alberta, Canada, and selected countries: – Historical – Projected » What the trends mean for the beef industry: – Potential product demand (“demographic pressure”) – Labour force (“demographic footprint”) – Marketing www.ralconsulting.ca Demographic Trends - Alberta

19911991--20062006

www.ralconsulting.ca Demographic Trends – Alberta

l Between 1991 and 2006, Alberta’s population increased by 30 percent l Alberta’s growth was second only to that of British Columbia and well above the national average l Alberta accounted for about 10 percent of Canada’s population in 2006 l Between 2001 and 2006, Alberta’s population growth (10.6 percent) was twice that of Canada (5.4 percent) l In 2006, about two-thirds (64 percent) of Alberta’s population lived in either the Calgary or Edmonton CMA’s

www.ralconsulting.ca Demographic Trends – Alberta

AlbertaAlberta’’ss populationpopulation hashas notnot onlyonly beenbeen increasingincreasing butbut itit hashas alsoalso beenbeen aging.aging. InIn 1971,1971, 2424 percentpercent ofof AlbertansAlbertans werewere 4545--plus;plus; byby 2006,2006, 3535 percent.percent.

www.ralconsulting.ca Alberta Population Pyramid, 1971 (colour) versus 2006 (outline)

M-71 F-71 M-06 F-06 90+ 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40

Age Group 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 Percent Share of Population www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Alberta Male/Female Ratio by Age, 2006

Ratio M/F Equality

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

Male/Female Ratio 0.4

0.2

0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+ Age www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Demographic Trends – Alberta

TheThe agingaging trendtrend inin AlbertaAlberta isis moremore pronouncedpronounced inin thethe nonnon-- metropolitanmetropolitan areas.areas.

www.ralconsulting.ca Alberta Population Pyramid, Non-CMA (colour) versus CMA (outline), 2005

M-Non F-Non M-Metro F-Metro 90+ 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40

Age Group 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

6 4 2 0 2 4 6 Percent Share of Population www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Demographic Trends - Canada

However,However, AlbertaAlberta lookslooks youngyoung comparedcompared toto thethe restrest ofof thethe provinces.provinces.

www.ralconsulting.ca Population Pyramid Newfoundland & Labrador (outline) versus Canada (colour), 2006 (percent)

CAN M CAN F N&L M N&L F 90+ 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44

Age Group 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Percent Share of Population www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Population Pyramid Québec (outline) versus Canada (colour), 2006 (percent)

CAN M CAN F QUE M QUE F 90+ 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44

Age Group 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Percent Share of Population www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Population Pyramid Ontario (outline) versus Canada (colour), 2006 (percent)

CAN M CAN F ONT M ONT F 90+ 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 Age Group 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Percent Share of Population www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Population Pyramid Saskatchewan (outline) versus Canada (colour), 2006 (percent)

CAN M CAN F SASK M SASK F 90+ 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 Age Group 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Percent Share of Population www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Household Spending – Canada Alcoholic Beverages ($ per person), 2005

Age Group All Ages

700

600

500

400

300

200 Average Annual Spending ($) 100

0 <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Age Group www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Population Pyramid Alberta (outline) versus Canada (colour), 2006 (percent)

CAN M CAN F ALB M ALB F 90+ 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 Age Group 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Percent Share of Population www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Population Pyramid British Columbia (outline) versus Canada (colour), 2006 (percent)

CAN M CAN F BC M BC F 90+ 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 Age Group 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Percent Share of Population www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Population Pyramid Nunavut (outline) versus Canada (colour), 2006 (percent)

CAN M CAN F NVT M NVT F 90+ 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 Age Group 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 Percent Share of Population www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Demographic Trends - Alberta

OnOn averageaverage betweenbetween 19961996 andand 2006,2006, annualannual populationpopulation growthgrowth throughthrough migrationmigration exceededexceeded growthgrowth throughthrough netnet naturalnatural increase.increase.

www.ralconsulting.ca Alberta Population Change by Source, 1972-2006

Net Natural International Interprovincial 70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0 Population Change -10,000

-20,000

-30,000

-40,000 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Demographic Trends - Alberta

AndAnd wherewhere areare AlbertaAlberta’’ss migrantsmigrants comingcoming from?from?

www.ralconsulting.ca Canada’s Provinces Population Change by Source, 1996-2006 (annual average)

Natural International Interprovincial

180,000

160,000

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

Population 60,000

40,000

20,000

-20,000 NL PEI NB NS QUE ONT MAN SK ALB BC www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Alberta Average Share of Immigrants by Source Region, 1997-2006

Asia & Pacific

Europe & U.K.

Africa & Middle East

South & Central America

United States

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Percent Share of Immigrants www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Population Pyramid Italy versus India, 2005 (percent)

M-India F-India M-Italy F-Italy 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49

Age Group 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 Percent Share of Population www.ralconsulting.ca Source: United Nations and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Alberta Average Share of Immigrants by Destination, 1997-2006

Calgary

Edmonton

Other Alberta

Red Deer

Lethbridge

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Percent Share of Immigrants www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Demographic Trends - Alberta

AlbertaAlberta’’ss AboriginalAboriginal IdentityIdentity Population:Population: AnAn IslandIsland ofof YouthYouth inin anan AgingAging PopulationPopulation

www.ralconsulting.ca Alberta – Aboriginal Identity Projected Population by Sex, 2001-2017 (000’s)

Males Females

140

120

100

60 Population (000's) 40

0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Alberta – Aboriginal Identity Distribution by Residence, 2001 versus 2017 (percent)

2001 2017 40

10 Percent Share of Population

0 Reserve CMA Urban Non-CMA Rural www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Population Pyramid North American Indian , Alberta, 2007

Male Female 75+ 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35

Age Group 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 Percent Share of Total www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Demographic Projections - Alberta

20072007--20172017

www.ralconsulting.ca Alberta Population Pyramid, 2007 (colour) versus 2017 (outline)

M-2007 F-2007 M-2017 F-2017 90+ 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40

Age Group 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Percent Share of Total www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Alberta Finance and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Alberta Population Change by Age Group and Sex, 2007-2017

Male Female 50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0 Population Change (N)

-10,000

-20,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+

Age Group www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Alberta Finance and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Alberta Visible Minority Population Share by Area, 2006-2017 (projected)

Calgary Edmonton Non-metro

Percent Share of Population 5

0 2006 2011 2017 www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Alberta – Aboriginal Identity Population Pyramid, 2001 (colour) versus 2017 (outline)

M-2001 F-2001 M-2017 F-2017 75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39

Age Group 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 Percent Share www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Alberta Population Projection Aboriginal Identity (colour) vs. Non-Aboriginal , 2017

M-AI F-AI M-Non AI F- Non AI 75+ 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 Age Group 25 20 15 10 5 0

6 4 2 0 2 4 6 Percent Share www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Demographic Trends – United States

The U.S. is somewhat younger than Canada but its age structure varies significantly by ethnic/racial group and region.

www.ralconsulting.ca Population Pyramid Canada (outline) versus U.S. (colour), 2005 (percent)

US-M US-F Can-M Can-F 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49

Age Group 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-5

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Percent Share of Population www.ralconsulting.ca Source: United Nations and R.A.L. Consulting Limited U.S. Ethnic and Racial Groups Median Age, 2005

Ethnic/Racial Group U.S.

20 Median Age 15

0 White Asian Native Black Hispanic www.ralconsulting.ca Source: U.S. Census Bureau U.S. Regions Ethnic and Racial Groups, 2005 (percent share of population)

Asian Black Hispanic White

120

100

20 Percent Share of Regional Population

0 West South Midwest Northeast www.ralconsulting.ca Source: U.S. Census Bureau U.S. Regions Median Age, 2005

Region U.S.

34 Median Age

30 West South Midwest Northeast www.ralconsulting.ca Source: U.S. Census Bureau U.S. Regions 45-plus Share of Population, 2005 (percent)

Region U.S.

45+ Share of Population (%) 32

30 West South Midwest Northeast www.ralconsulting.ca Source: U.S. Census Bureau and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Demographic Trends – Global

What are the demographic profiles of Alberta’s global markets?

www.ralconsulting.ca Population Pyramid Korea (outline) versus U.S. (colour), 2005 (percent)

US-M US-F Korea-M Korea-F 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49

Age Group 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-5

6 4 2 0 2 4 6 Percent Share of Population www.ralconsulting.ca Source: United Nations and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Population Pyramid China (outline) versus U.S. (colour), 2005 (percent)

US-M US-F Chi-M Chi-F 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49

Age Group 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-5

6 4 2 0 2 4 6 Percent Share of Population www.ralconsulting.ca Source: United Nations and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Population Pyramid Japan (outline) versus U.S. (colour), 2005 (percent)

US-M US-F Jap-M Jap-F 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49

Age Group 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-5

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Percent Share of Population www.ralconsulting.ca Source: United Nations and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Demographic Trends – Key Points

l Alberta’s population is: – Growing relatively faster than the rest of Canada – Highly dependent on migration, especially inter-provincial, for growth – Increasing skewed towards Calgary and Edmonton – Aging (but less so than other provinces) – Diversifying in ethnic/racial terms (particularly in Calgary and Edmonton)

l Alberta’s Aboriginal Identity population is: – Growing at a faster rate than the rest of the province – Aging at a slower rate than the rest of the province – Growing faster on reserves and in rural areas (majority still reside in urban areas, particularly CMA’s) www.ralconsulting.ca Demographic Trends – Key Points

l The U.S., Alberta’s main export market, has a population that is: – Younger than Canada’s – Increasingly diverse in ethnic/racial terms – Exhibits different regional demographic profiles

l Korea and China have younger population profiles than the U.S.

l Japan’s age profile is the oldest among the major export markets of Alberta’s beef industry.

www.ralconsulting.ca Demographic Analysis

““ActingActing YourYour AgeAge””:: WhoWho BuysBuys Beef?Beef?

www.ralconsulting.ca Beef Canada, 2001 ($ per person)

Age Group All Ages 160

140

120

100

40 Average Annual Spending ($) 20

0 <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Age Group www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Beef United States, 2006 (U.S. $ per person)

Age Group All Ages 120

100

Average Annual Spending ($) 20

0 <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Age Group www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Beef United Kingdom, 2005-2006 (£ per person)

Age Group Average Life Cycle Average

Average Annual Spending 10

0 <30 30-49 50-64 65-74 75+ Age Group www.ralconsulting.ca Source: U.K. National Statistics and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Grilling Beef (e.g., steak) Switzerland, 2003 (monthly per person in francs)

Age Group All Ages

1 Average Monthly Spending (francs)

0 <35 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Age Group www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Office fédéral de la statistique and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Beef Greece, 2005 (monthly per person in drachmas)

Age Group All Ages 14

2 Average Monthly Spending (Drachmas) 0 <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Age Group www.ralconsulting.ca Source: National Statistical Service of Greece and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Meat New Zealand, 2004 (New Zealand $ per person)

Age Group All Ages 450

400

350

300

250

200

150

Average Annual Spending 100

0 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Age Group www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics New Zealand and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Demographic Analysis

OBSERVATIONOBSERVATION èè InIn CanadaCanada andand aa numbernumber ofof otherother countries,countries, consumerconsumer spendingspending onon beefbeef isis highesthighest inin thethe 55+55+ ageage group.group.

www.ralconsulting.ca Household Income Before Tax Canada, 2005 (per person)

Age Group All Ages

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000 Average Annual Spending ($) 5,000

0 <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Age Group www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited 55-plus Population Canada, 2006-2056 (N and percent share of population)

N % 18,000 50

16,000

14,000 40

12,000 30 10,000

8,000

55+ (000's) 20

6,000 55+ Percent Share

4,000 10

2,000

0 0 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited 55-plus Population Selected Countries, 2005 (percent share of total)

15 Percent Share 55+ 10

UK Italy USA Japan Korea China Canada Mexico Germany www.ralconsulting.ca Source: United Nations and R.A.L. Consulting Limited 55-plus Population Selected Countries, 2005 (total)

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000 Population (000's)

50,000

UK USA Italy China Japan Korea Mexico Canada Germany www.ralconsulting.ca Source: United Nations and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Beef United States, 1984 versus 2006 ($ per household)

1984 2006

350

300

250

200

150

100 Average Annual Spending ($) 50

0 <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Age Group www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Beef Canada, 1992 and 2001 ($ per household)

1992 2001 450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100 Average Annual Spending ($) 50

0 <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Age Group www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Demographic Trends - Canada

AA concernconcern withwith thethe linklink betweenbetween foodfood andand healthhealth alsoalso mustmust bebe considered.considered.

www.ralconsulting.ca Canada New Cancer Cases, 2007

Men Women

80+

70-79

60-69

50-59

40-49 Age Group

30-39

20-29

0-19

25,000 15,000 5,000 5,000 15,000 25,000 Number of New Cases www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Canadian Cancer Society et al. and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Canada High Blood Pressure, 2000-2001 (percent share of total)

Men Women

10 Percent Share of Total

0 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Age Group www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada Demographics and the Labour Market

TheThe agricultureagriculture sectorsector hashas beenbeen challengedchallenged byby thethe issueissue ofof anan agingaging workwork forceforce forfor thethe lastlast 3030 years.years. TheThe issueissue isis nownow affectingaffecting otherother industriesindustries inin Alberta.Alberta.

www.ralconsulting.ca Alberta Labour Force Pyramid, 1976-2006 (percent share)

M76 F76 M06 F06

65+ 60-64 55-59

50-54 45-49 40-44

Age Group 35-39 30-34

25-29 20-24 15-19

10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Percent Share of Labour Force www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Alberta Labour Force Change, 1976-2006 (percent share)

6 Percent Share

0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ Age Group www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Alberta Entry/Exit Ratio (<25:55+) by Industry, 2006

Accommodation and food services

Trade

Information, culture and recreation

Forestry, fishing, mining, oil and gas

Construction

Manufacturing

Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing

Health care and social assistance

Professional, scientific and technical services

Transportation and warehousing

Educational services

Agriculture

Public administration

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Ratio <25:55+ www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Alberta Labour Force Change, 2007-2017 (000’s)

Male Female

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0 Labour Force Change (N) -10,000

-20,000 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Age Group www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Alberta Finance, Statistics Canada, and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Alberta Labour Force by Age Group, 2007-2017 (percent share)

<25 55+

Percent Share of Labour Force 4

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Alberta Finance, Statistics Canada, and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Demographic Trends – Canada

l Between 2001 and 2006: » Median age of farm operators increased from 49 to 51: – 52 for men – 50 for women » Share of operators 55 and older increased from 35% to 41% » Number of operators declined by 5.5%

www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada Alberta Labour Force, Agriculture, 1976-2006 (000’s)

120

100

Agricultural Labour Force (000's) 20

0 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Alberta Entry/Exit Ratio (<25:55+), Agriculture, 1976-2006

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6 Ratio <25:55+

0.4

0.2

0.0 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Alberta Entry/Exit Shares (<25:55+), Agriculture, 1976-2006 (percent)

< 25 55+ 40

10 % Share of Industry Labour Foce 5

0 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Canada Population Change by Region, 2001-2006 (percent)

Remote Rural

Rural & Small Town

Rural Urban Fringe

Canada

CMA & CA

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Population Change (%) www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada Population Pyramid Mexico versus United States, 2005 (percent)

US-M US-F Mex-M Mex-F 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49

Age Group 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-5

6 4 2 0 2 4 6 Percent Share of Population www.ralconsulting.ca Source: United Nations and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Demographics and Marketing

“Everybody is not on the Net”. In 2005, 68 percent of 18-plus Canadians used the Internet from any location. Only 3.4 percent of Internet users purchased food, condiments, or beverages. Traditional marketing tools remain effective options for reaching the 45-plus consumer. The Internet works well with younger (under 45) consumers and a niche market of wealthy, university educated, 45-plus consumers.

www.ralconsulting.ca Television Viewing Alberta, 2004 (hours per week)

Men Women 35

10 Average Hours per Week

0 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 49 50 - 59 60+ Age Group www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada Radio Listening Alberta, 2006 (hours per week)

Males Females

Average Hours per Week 5

0 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Age Group www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada Magazines Canada, 2005 ($ per person)

Age Group All Ages

10 Average Annual Spending ($) 5

0 <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Age Group www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Newspapers Canada, 2005 ($ per person)

Age Group All Ages 100

20 Average Annual Spending ($)

0 <25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Age Group www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada and R.A.L. Consulting Limited Canada Home Internet Users by Activity, 2005 (percent)

18+ Canadians E-mail 55.6 General browsing (surfing) 51.2 Obtaining weather reports or road conditions 40.5 Travel information or making travel arrangements 38.5 Viewing the news or sports 37.6 Searching for medical or health related information 35.3 Electronic banking 35.2 Paying bills 33.5 Searching for information on Canadian municipal, provincial or federal government 31.7 Education, training or school work 26.1 Researching community events 25.8 Playing games 23.5 Participating in chat groups or using a messenger 23.1 Obtaining or saving music 22.3 Obtaining or saving software 19.4 Researching investments 16.0 Listening to the radio over the Internet 15.9 Communicating with Canadian municipal, provincial or federal government 13.8 Other Internet activity 6.7 Downloading or watching television 5.2 Downloading or watching a movie 5.0 www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada Canada Home Internet Users, Characteristics, 2005 (percent)

Household type Single family households with unmarried children under age 18 74.1 Single family households without unmarried children under age 18 56.9 One-person households 38.2 Multi-family households 67.5 Sex Males 61.5 Females 60.3 Age 18 to 34 years 77.3 35 to 54 years 68.3 55 to 64 years 49.3 65 years and over 22.5 Level of education Less than high school 26.5 High school or college 63.9 University degree 83.4 Personal income quartile Lowest quartile 52.3 Second quartile 50.2 Third quartile 63.4 Highest quartile 77.7 www.ralconsulting.ca Source: Statistics Canada Applying Demographics to Business Strategy

What should you remember about this presentation?

1. Demographics as the foundation of strategy: Ø Life cycle analysis - “Acting your age” Ø Durability of consumer behaviour by age 2. Methodology: Ø In-depth comparative and historical analysis Ø Segmentation by age, sex, and geography 3. Be challenged not intimidated by the implications of demographic trends: Ø Magnitude and direction of demographic pressure Ø Creativity

www.ralconsulting.ca Applying Demographics to Business Strategy

4. Increasing importance of the 45-plus consumer: Ø Favoured products Ø Quality and service (discretionary income) Ø Health concerns 5. Shifting global demographics 6. Labour market opportunities and challenges: Ø Immigration Ø Aboriginal population Ø Technology 7. Marketing: Ø Multi-media, targeted approach www.ralconsulting.ca Disclaimer

l The views expressed in the presentation are solely those of Richard Loreto in his capacity as President of R.A.L. Consulting Limited and do not represent the views of any other individual or organization. R.A.L. Consulting Limited makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. The views expressed by Richard Loreto in the presentation do not constitute, directly or indirectly, general or specific advice or direction to any individual or representatives of organizations attending the event at which the presentation is delivered.