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Population Projections and Census Divisions, 2020 – 2046

In 2046, Alberta’s population is expected to: • Reach over 6.3 million people, an increase of roughly 2.0 million people from 2019. • Become older, with an average age of 41.5 years, up from 38.3 years in 2019. • Become increasingly diverse, as arrivals from other countries account for about 54% of the expected growth over the projection period. • Become more concentrated in urban centres, especially along the - Corridor; 80% of Albertans are expected to live in this region by 2046. Population projections from 2020 to 2046 for Alberta and its 19 census divisions are now available. Three sets of assumptions (i.e., low, medium and high population growth scenarios) were prepared. This document highlights the main characteristics of Alberta’s projected population, focusing mainly on the medium (reference) scenario, unless otherwise indicated.

Alberta Population Projections

Alberta to expect steady long-term Migration to the is heavily dependent on population growth the economic situation in Alberta. As Alberta was By 2046, Alberta is expected to be home to about 6.3 slowly recovering from the 2015-2016 recession, the million people, representing an average annual growth economic shutdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic and rate of about 1.4%, or an increase of roughly 2.0 million subsequent collapse in oil prices sent Alberta’s economy people from 2019 (Figure 1). In contrast, the projected back into another recession. The COVID-19 pandemic growth will be lower than the 1.9% experienced over mainly impacted net international migration. Travel the previous 25-year period (1994 to 2019). Alberta’s restrictions and delays in issuing work and permanent population is projected to surpass 5.0 million by 2030 residency permits slowed migration from abroad to and reach the 6.0 million mark by 2042. Under the low Alberta between April and June 2020, causing net international migration levels in 2020 to fall below levels of Alberta andPopulation high scenarios, Projections Alberta’s total population in 2046 is PDF name: chrt_01.pdf projected to be around 5.6 million and 7.5 million; gains the past few years. COVID-19 could continue to suppress 2019-2046of 1.2 million and 3.1 million, respectively. international arrivals for the next few years. However, levels should remain high enough to offset accelerating Figure 1: Alberta Population, Historical (1972-2019) and Projectednet outflows (2020-2046) of interprovincial migrants and ensure FIGURE 1: POPULATION OF ALBERTA positive overall net migration to Alberta in 2021 and 2022. 1972-2046 In 2019, Alberta had a small net inflow of interprovincial (millions) migrants, and the same trend is forecasted for 2020. 8 Estimated Projected However, a net loss of interprovincial migrants is 7 expected for the 2021 to 2024 period. Between 2019 6 and 2022, Alberta’s population is projected to grow at 5 an average annual rate of 0.9%, compared with 1.3% 4 during the 2015 to 2019 period. 3 2 Over the medium term (i.e., 2022 to 2027), as 1 economic conditions improve and net interprovincial 0 migration becomes positive, population growth is forecasted to accelerate, averaging 1.4% annually Estimated Medium during that time (Figure 2). High Low Despite increasing migration levels, population growth is Sources: Statistics and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance expected to slow gradually over the long term, dropping

1 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2020 – 2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | August 28, 2020

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#Classification: Protected A 2020-07-29: 2:15 PM from 1.6% in 2027 to 1.3% in 2046. This trend is due to births and deaths in the future means that the average lower natural increase and population aging. In all three daily population gain due to natural increase will also scenarios, future population growth is mainly driven by decrease from 74 in 2019 to about 64 by 2046. migration, particularly international migration. Total net migration from all sources (around 1.35 million people) Albertans are expected to live longer is projected to account for 68% of Alberta’s population On average, a girl born in Alberta in 2019 could expect growth under the medium scenario, with natural to live to 83.6 years of age, while a boy could reach increase accounting for the remaining 32% (Figure 2). 79.0 years. Under the medium growth scenario, life Of the anticipated net migrants, 79% would arrive from expectancy at birth for females is projected to rise to other parts of the world. Net interprovincial migration is 87.0 years by 2046, while for males it is expected to expected to account for 14% of the province’s growth, or reach 83.7 years. Consistent with historical trends, males almost 278,000 new residents between 2019 and 2046 are expected to see faster gains in life expectancy, and under the medium growth scenario. consequently the gap between females and males is also expected to narrow from 4.6 years in 2019 to 3.3 years Alberta Population Projections by 2046. PDF name: chrt_01.pdf 2019-2046 FIGURE 2: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION GROWTH Alberta, 1972-2046 Life expectancy at age 65 is also expected to increase. (000) A man reaching age 65 in 2019 could expect to live, on 140 average, another 19.2 years, compared to 22.2 years 120 Estimated Projected for women. Life expectancy at age 65 is projected 100 to increase to 21.7 years for men and 24.3 years for 80 women by 2046. 60 40 20 Alberta’s population getting older 0 In 2019, Alberta was the youngest province, but its -20 -40 population continued to age due to below replacement fertility and a rising life expectancy. Despite the anticipated addition of a substantial number of young Natural Increase Net Interprovincial Migration people through migration, population aging is expected Net International Migration to continue over the projection period (Figure 3). In 2019, Sources: and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance the average age1 of the provincial population was 38.2 years, a figure that is projected to climb to 41.5 years by 2046. Natural increase remains a significant, but diminishing source of growth Baby boomers accelerate aging Natural increase (births minus deaths) is expected to The large baby boom cohort (people born between chrt_02.pdfcontinue to have a positive impact on the province’s 1946 and 1965) will have a significant impact on the growth, adding about 623,000 people by 2046 rate of population aging over the next few decades. (Figure 2). The degree to which natural increase In 2019, baby boomers were aged 54 to 73 years and contributes to population growth is partly influenced by accounted for about 21% of the population (Figure 3). migration patterns. The majority of the more than 1.3 As baby boomers get older, aging is expected to million net migrants projected to arrive over the next 27 accelerate until 2030, when the last of that large cohort years will be young adults aged 18 to 34. An influx of reaches 65 years of age. people in the child-bearing ages is projected to boost In 2019, people aged 65 and older represented about the number of births over the period. Despite this, the 13% of the population. Under the medium growth impact of natural increase on growth will diminish over scenario one in five, or 20%, is expected to be 65 years time, as deaths are also expected to increase rapidly or older by 2046. By 2029, seniors will make up a larger with the advanced aging of the baby boom cohort. For share of the population than children aged 0 to 14 years. instance, on an average day in 2019, 148 new Albertans This trend has already occurred at the national level. were born, while about 74 people died. By 2046, the average number of daily deaths is expected to nearly double to around 138 per day, while births will likely 1 Average age has replaced median age in these projections as it adjusts better for increase to 202 per day. The narrowing gap between changes in the age structure as the baby boomers become increasingly older.

2 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2020 – 2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | August 28, 2020

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#Classification: Protected A 2020-08-26: 9:36 AM Alberta Population Projections PDF name: chrt_01.pdf 2019-2046 FIGURE 3: Alberta's Age , 2019 vs. 2046

FIGURE 3: ALBERTA’S POPULATION PYRAMIDS 2019 vs. 2046 Males Females 90+ Parents of baby boomers, 85 Parents of baby boomers, 1919 to 1940 1919 to 1940 80 75 Baby boomers, 70 Baby boomers, 1946 to 1965 65 1946 to 1965 60 55 50 Children of 45 Children of baby boomers, 40 baby boomers, 1972 to 1992 35 1972 to 1992 30 25 Generation Z, Generation Z, 1993 to current 20 1993 to current 15 10 5 0 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 Percentage of Population AB Females 2019 AB Males 2019 AB Males 2046 AB Females 2046

Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance Note: Information boxes indicate generations in 2019. Alberta Population Projections PDF name: chrt_01.pdf 2019-2046 Males likely to continue to outnumber females Alberta has consistently been home to more males FigureFIGURE 4: 4: Proportion PROPORTION of TotalOF TOTAL Population POPULATION by Age Group, Medium, 1972-2046 BY AGE GROUP than females, mainly due to the large proportion of Alberta, 1972-2046 working-age males migrating to the province. This (%) trend in the sex ratio (ratio of males to females) is expected to continue. 80 Estimated Projected 70 Over the projection period, the sex ratio is expected 60 to remain stable at 101 males per 100 females. This 50 is unusual, because the sex ratio tends to decrease in 40 aging populations. In most , the aging of the 30 chrt_03.pdf large baby boom cohort into the senior ages and higher 20 female life expectancies tend to pull the sex ratio in P:\InDesign\_OSI_Publications\Demography_publications\Alberta 10Population Projection\2020\2020-2046-Population Projections\Source_documents\: favour of females. However, Alberta does not follow this 0 PopProjpattern. 2020: Figure Net migration 3 inflows over the projection period

#Classification:may continue Protected to tip A the province’s overall sex ratio in 2020-08-20: 10:58 AM favour of males, which in turn, helps prop up the sex 0-14 15-64 65+ ratio. These two opposing forces will keep the sex ratio Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance fairly stable over the projection period.

More people depend on the working-age chrt_04.pdfDue to the increasing share of seniors and the population declining share of the working-age population, the total 2 The number of working-age Albertans (aged 15 to 64 dependency ratio is expected to increase significantly years) is expected to grow under all scenarios. Under over the projection period (Figure 5). In 2019, there were the medium scenario, the working-age population will around 47 dependents for every 100 Alberta increase from almost 3.0 million in 2019 to 4.0 million by 2046. However, as a share of the total population, this age group is anticipated to shrink, falling from around 2 The dependency ratio refers to the population not typically in the labour force 68% in 2019 to about 63% by 2046 (Figure 4). (children and the elderly) to the population that typically is (those aged 15 to 64).

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#Classification: Protected A 2020-08-26: 9:37 AM residents aged 15 to 64 years. By 2046, it is expected Age Structure of Alberta that the total dependency ratio will climb to around 58 By 2046, there will be more people of every age dependents. The higher ratio will mainly be driven by compared with 2019. The baby boomers will be the rapid increase in the senior (or 65 years of age and swelling the ranks of the province’s oldest residents, older) portion of the population. while their children, who are the oldest cohort of the ‘echo’ generation, will have just entered their Alberta Population Projections PDF name: chrt_01.pdf senior years (Figure 6). The next section outlines the 2019-2046 FIGURE 5: DEPENDENCY RATIOS projected size of specific age groupings. Figure(PER 5: 100 Dependency WORKING AGE Ratios INDIVIDUALS) (per 100 working age individuals), Alberta Alberta, 1996-2046 Stable numbers of young children and growing

35 Historical Projected in school ages

30 The size of the youngest age group (0 to 4 years) is mainly impacted by the number of births and is a good 25 indicator of possible demand for elementary education. 20 In 2019, there were about 274,000 0 to 4 year olds in the province, and the size of this group is expected to 15 remain relatively stable through to 2029. Thereafter, Youth (0-14) Dependency growth will accelerate, leading to about 370,000 young 10 Ratio Elderly (65+) Dependency children by 2046. 5 Ratio The population aged 5 to 17 years also represents 0 potential school demand. The number of school-aged children will likely continue to rise throughout the Alberta Population Projections projection period due to Alberta’s relatively high fertility Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance PDF name: chrt_01.pdf 2019-2046 and migration rates. Between 2019 and 2025, this age Alberta's Age Pyramids,chrt_05.pdf 2019 vs. 2046

FIGURE 6: ALBERTA’S POPULATION BY AGE AND SEX (THOUSANDS) 2019 vs. 2046

Males Females 90+ Parents of baby boomers, Parents of baby boomers, 1919 to 1940 85 1919 to 1940 80 75 Baby boomers, 70 Baby boomers, 1946 to 1965 65 1946 to 1965 60 55 50 Children of baby boomers, 45 Children of baby boomers, 1972 to 1992 40 1972 to 1992 35 30 25 Generation Z, Generation Z, 1993 to current 20 1993 to current 15 10 5 0 65 55 45 35 25 15 5 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 Population (Thousands) AB Females 2019 AB Males 2019 AB Males 2046 AB Females 2046

Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance Note: Information boxes indicate generations in 2019.

4 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2020 – 2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | August 28, 2020

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group is expected to increase at an average annual FIGURE 8: POPULATION AGED 15 TO 64 YEARS rate of 1.1% (Figure 7), adding almost 50,000 new Alberta, 2001-2046 Albertaschool-aged Population children Projections during that period. By 2046, this (thousands) PDF name: chrt_01.pdf age cohort is expected to number about 921,000, up 2019-2046 4500 from about 696,000 in 2019. 4000 Population Aged 0 to 14 years, Alberta Estimated Projected 3500

FIGURE 7: POPULATION AGED 0 TO 17 YEARS 3000 Alberta, 2001-2046 2500 (thousands) 2000 18-24 1,000 1500 Estimated Projected 25-54 900 1000 15-64 800 500 700 0 600 0-4 5-17 500 400 Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance 300 200 100 will also expand by about 45%, that age group will make 0 up a declining share of the total population, decreasing from about 68% in 2019 to 63% by 2046 as the baby boomers leave the workforce. Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance Aging boomers accelerate growth of senior chrt_08.pdf Steady share of young adults, declining share population of core working-ages The population aged 65 years and older is expected to increase both in number and population share The young adult cohort (aged 18 to 24 years) is usually throughout the projection period. In 2019, over 580,000 associated with attending post-secondary institutions Albertans were aged 65 years and older, accounting or participating in the youth labour force. In 2019, the chrt_07.pdf for about 13% of the population. The number of seniors share of the population for this cohort was about 9% is expected to top one million by 2035 and exceed 1.2 and is expected to be relatively stable throughout the million by 2046 (Figure 9). Under the medium scenario, projection period. In the next few years, this age group about one in five Albertans would be 65 years or older is expected to shrink as the province experiences by 2046. In 2019, there were about 390,000 more net interprovincial outflows. Between 2025 to 2030, Alberta Population Projections PDF name: chrt_01.pdf children (aged 0 to 17 years) than seniors. By 2046, this however, growth of young adults is expected to 2019-2046 difference is expected to shrink to less than 50,000. accelerate due to a larger cohort of children aging into this group, along with increasing migration to the Population Aged 65 and older, Alberta province. By 2046, the number of young adults is expected to reach almost 525,000. FIGURE 9: POPULATION AGED 65 AND OLDER Alberta, 2001-2046 The core labour force age group (25 to 54 years) will (thousands) also increase in size over the projection period, with the expansion expected to be higher over the medium 1400 term. In 2019, the youngest baby boomers were 54 1200 Estimated Projected years of age, comprising only about 3% of the core 1000 working-age group. By 2020, all of the baby boomers will have aged out of the core labour force, but their 800 65+ numbers will continue to rise due to migration (Figure 8). 600 Despite the growth in those numbers, as a share of the 80+ 400 total population, the core labour force cohort will decline from about 43% in 2019 to about 40% by 2046. 200

The overall working-age population (15 to 64 years) 0 will also grow, expanding by around 35% over the P:\InDesign\_OSI_Publications\Demography_publications\Alberta Population Projection\2020\2020-2046-

projection period. However, since the overall populationPopulation Sources: Projections\Source_documents\: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board PopProjand Finance 2020: Figure 8

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#Classification: Protected A 2020-07-29: 2:18 PM Rapid growth of the oldest-old In general, the largest centres capture most of the migration to the province from international sources, In assessing demand for services such as health care, while also gaining from migratory movements both assisted living and seniors housing, it is especially within Alberta and from other regions of Canada important to look at the population 80 years of age and (Appendix Map 2). older. This age group is expected to more than double as a share of the population, increasing from just over 3% in 2019 to almost 7% by 2046. This trend represents Most regions expected to see population an absolute increase of about 305,000 people who will growth be 80 years and older, a percentage increase of around With the exception of CD 4 (Hanna), CD 7 (Stettler) and 225% (Figure 9). CD 13 (), all regions in Alberta are expected to see positive growth over the projection period. Although the population of CD 14 (Edson) is expected Regional Population Projections to grow, the increase is marginal (average annual growth of 0.03%) and the population is relatively stable Regional population growth is determined by the (Figure 10). CD 3 () and CD 15 (Banff) are current age structure, natural increase and net gains or also likely to have relatively stable populations due to losses through migration. The next section highlights minimal expected growth over the projection period. By the main characteristics of the 19 census divisions Albertacomparison, Population the ProjectionsEdmonton-Calgary Corridor (CDs 6, PDF name: chrt_01.pdf (CDs) in Alberta. 2019-20468 and 11) and CD 19 (Grande ) are projected to have the strongest growth (Appendix Map 3). The current age structure is a major determinant of the Figure 12: Average Annual Population Growth by CD, Medium, 2019-2046 number of births and deaths. A region with a greater proportion of older people will likely experience relatively FIGURE 10: AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH BY CENSUS DIVISION more deaths, whereas a region with a large proportion of (%) young adults will likely have more births. In addition, since Census Divisions, 2019-2046 migration is an activity undertaken primarily by young 2.0 adults, the age structure will impact a region’s migration Provincial Average = 1.4% patterns and vice versa. 1.5

Older regions, with a greater share of seniors in the 1.0 population, are more likely to experience very low or 0.5 negative natural increase leading to downward pressure on population growth (Appendix Map 1). The oldest 0.0 regions of the province in 2019 were CD 4 (Hanna) and CD 13 (Whitecourt) with average ages of 42.3 and 41.9 -0.5 years, respectively. These two CDs are projected to have some of the least growth from natural increase -1.0 over the projection period.

Migration is a key determinant of population growth Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance for most regions. It is common for regional patterns of migratory movements to be relatively consistent over time. For many years, some regions have seen their Regional Age Structure young people move to other regions of the province (intraprovincial migration), for example, CD 17 (Slave Overall increase in children, but shrinking share ), CD 19 () and CD 2 (). There is considerable regional variation in the proportion Other regions have a long-standing and significant of 0 to 14 year olds. At the top end, 28% of CD 17’s attraction of interprovincial migrants. Likewise, some () population was under the age of 15, while CDs make considerable gains from the settlement at the bottom end of the spectrum, the proportion of choices of immigrants, while others receive almost children in CD 15 (Banff) was close to 14% in 2019. none. Some regions, such as CD 16 (Wood Buffalo) The share of children is projected to drop or remain tend to draw a significant number of interprovincial fairly stable in almost all CDs. CD 15 and CD 16 migrants, yet tend to lose people to other parts of the (Wood Buffalo) are expected to show the greatest province at the same time, leading to lower growth from drop in the share of 0 to 14 year olds (2.4 and 2.8 migration than might be expected. percentage points, respectively), which is primarily due to population aging and the shrinking proportions of

6 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2020 – 2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | August 28, 2020

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#Classification: Protected A 2020-08-26: 9:37 AM Alberta Population Projections PDF name: chrt_01.pdf 2019-2046 Percent change of 15 to 64 year olds, 2019-2046, medium scenario

their child-bearing cohorts. CD 15 also has the lowest current and projected fertility of all regions. CDs 17 FIGURE 12: PERCENT CHANGE OF 15 TO 64 YEAR OLDS and 15 will continue to have the highest and lowest Census Divisions, 2019-2046 population shares of children, respectively, in 2046. 11-Edmonton While regional population shares of children are 6-Calgary expected to drop, the absolute number of children will 19-Grande Prairie increase in most census divisions (Figure 11). Due to 8-Red Deer their large populations, the largest absolute increases 2-Lethbridge in the number of children are expected in CD 8 (Red 1- Deer), CD 6 (Calgary), and CD 11 (Edmonton). These 5- Albertathree Population census divisions, Projections together with CD 19 (Grande 16-Wood Buffalo PDF name: chrt_01.pdf 2019-2046Prairie), make up the four regions with the largest 10-Camrose percent growth of children over the projection period. 17-Slave Lake Percent change of 0 to 14 year olds, 2019-2046, medium scenario 3-Pincher Creek 12- FIGURE 11: PERCENT CHANGE OF 0 TO 14 YEAR OLDS 9-Rocky Mtn House Census Divisions, 2019-2046 18- 14-Edson 19-Grande Prairie 15-Banff 6-Calgary 13-Whitecourt 11-Edmonton 7-Stettler 8-Red Deer 4-Hanna Alberta (35%) 5-Drumheller 10-Camrose -30% 0% 30% 60% 1-Medicine Hat Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance 2-Lethbridge 17-Slave Lake chrt_12.pdf In 2019, the regions with the highest share of the 3-Pincher Creek working-age population were CD 16 (Wood Buffalo), 9-Rocky Mtn House CD 15 (Banff), CD 6 (Calgary), CD 11 (Edmonton) and 16-Wood Buffalo CD 19 (Grande Prairie); all had shares over the Alberta 12-Cold Lake average of about 68%. In contrast, 58% of people in 18-Grande Cache CD 3 (Pincher Creek) were of working age. The share 13-Whitecourt of population aged 15 to 64 will decline in all census 14-Edson divisions between 2019 and 2046. However, CD 16, 7-Stettler CD 11 and CD 6 will continue to have the highest 15-Banff shares, above the provincial average of 63%. 4-Hanna Alberta (32%) -30% 0% 30% 60% Regional differences in population aging Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance In 2019, 13% of Albertans were 65 years of age and older, and this number is expected to increase to 20% by 2046. The proportion of the population aged 65 and Proportion of working-age population to shrink older varies regionally throughout the province due to chrt_11.pdfin every region different age structures and migration flow patterns All but seven census divisions are projected to have (Figure 13). In 2019, CD 3 (Pincher Creek) and CD 4 increased populations in the working-ages (15 to 64 (Hanna) had the highest proportion of seniors among the years) between 2019 and 2046 (Figure 12). Since CDs at 21%, while Wood Buffalo (CD 16) had the lowest migrants are predominantly young adults, regions share (4%). In 2046, it is expected that CD 4 (Hanna) will receiving the most net migrants are expected to see have the highest percentage of seniors at 29%, whereas the largest gains in their working-aged populations. CD 17 (Slave Lake) will have the smallest share with CD 11 (Edmonton) takes the top spot, followed by CD 6 about 14% of the population aged 65 years and over. (Calgary), CD 19 (Grande Prairie) and CD 8 (Red Deer). Not surprisingly, given the projected decline of its overall population, CD 4 (Hanna) is also expected to see the largest drop in its working-age population. P:\InDesign\_OSI_Publications\Demography_publications\Alberta Population Projection\2020\2020-2046- Population Projections\Source_documents\: PopProj 2020: Figure 12

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#Classification: Protected A 2020-07-29: 2:19 PM Alberta Population Projections PDF name: chrt_01.pdf 2019-2046 within the province. As the most populous region, this FIGURE 13: POPULATION AGED 65 AND OVER AS A tends to attract most of the migrants arriving from PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION outside of the province. In the past decade, 86% of Census Divisions, 2019 and 2046 immigrants and 73% of the migrants from other parts of Alberta 13% Alberta 20% Canada settled in this region. In addition, these CDs tend (2019) (2046) to gain residents through migration from other parts of 4-Hanna 19 the province. 15-Banff 18 7-Stettler 17 Wood Buffalo: growth slows 13-Whitecourt 16 CD 16 (Wood Buffalo) was hit hard by the 2015-2016 9-Rocky Mtn House 15 recession. Strong net outflows of interprovincial and 14-Edson 14 intraprovincial migrants caused this region’s population 5-Drumheller 13 to shrink between 2015 and 2017, as the economy 10-Camrose 12 adjusted to lower oil prices and decreased production. 1-Medicine Hat 11 Thereafter, this region experienced modest economic 3-Pincher Creek 10 improvements, with projects announced and oil prices 18-Grande Cache 9 on the rise. However, the March 2020 collapse in oil 12-Cold Lake 8 prices led to companies halting projects and investor 8-Red Deer 7 confidence in the energy sector falling once again. CD 2046 6-Calgary 6 16 is expected to have net outflows of migrants between 2-Lethbridge 2019 5 2021 and 2024, and the population is forecast to contract 11-Edmonton 4 for the period of 2021 to 2023. Following a few years of 19-Grande Prairie 3 net outflows, CD 16 is expected to reach positive levels 16-Wood Buffalo 2 of net migration once again. Between 2026 and 2028, 17-Slave Lake 1 higher investment, due to improving market access for Alberta crude and growing confidence, 0% 10% 20% 30% should result in a boost in migration to this region. Over Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance the entire projection period, natural increase is expected to contribute almost 27% to CD 16’s growth. This is the second highest contribution among regions in the Focus on selected regions province, and well above the provincial level (Appendix Map 1). Due to its youthful population, there are relatively Recession in Alberta: around the province fewer deaths and a significant number of births in CD 16 when compared with other regions. Overall, average With Alberta in a recession this year and restrictions annual growth for CD 16 is projected at 0.97% between on travel because of COVID-19, population growth is 2019 and 2046. expected to slow significantly over the short term. While all regions ofchrt_13 the province are expected to be impacted, Grande Prairie: a service centre for Alberta and particular effects are expected in CD 6 (Calgary), CD 11 (Edmonton), CD 8 (Red Deer), CD 16 (Wood Buffalo), CD 19 (Grande Prairie) and CD 12 (Cold Lake). CD 19, which includes the of Grande Prairie, has experienced robust growth over the last decade. At P:\InDesign\_OSI_Publications\Demography_publications\AlbertaEdmonton-Calgary Corridor: urbanization Population1.52%, theProjection\2020\2020-2046-Population region’s average annual growth (between Projections\Source_documents\: 2019 and 2046) is expected to remain well above PopProj 2020:continues Figure 13 the provincial level (Appendix Map 3). This regional #Classification:The Protected Edmonton-Calgary A Corridor consists of three CDs economy has a large natural resources component, 2020-08-20: 10:50 AM (6, 8 and 11) and includes the Census Metropolitan Areas including oil and gas, forestry, and . The city of Edmonton and Calgary, as well as the city of Red of Grande Prairie is a service area for northwestern Deer. Covering only 6% of the land area, the Corridor is Alberta and northeastern British Columbia and both home to 76% of the population and is the most urbanized areas have abundant reserves of oil and gas. While area of the province3 . Projected growth in this region resource activities may attract more male migrants, the will outpace the provincial average (Appendix Map 3). service sector is expected to attract a more balanced By 2046, 80% of Albertans are expected to live in this mix of people. Compared with CD 16 (Wood Buffalo), region. The anticipated growth in the Edmonton-Calgary for example, the sex ratio of CD 19 (Grande Prairie) is Corridor is supported by historical migration patterns less skewed towards males, and the region is more attractive to young adults of both sexes. As a result, 3 2016 Census of Canada, Statistics Canada

8 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2020 – 2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | August 28, 2020 the population in CD 19 contains momentum for future For more information on the Population growth. CD 19 was impacted by low oil prices in Projections see: 2015-2016, and saw net outflows of migrants in 2016 and 2017. This region is forecast to once again have Data for Alberta Population Projections. net outflows of migrants between 2021 and 2023. However, because of its economic diversity and the Includes estimated (1996‑2019) and projected up-tick in conventional drilling, CD 19 should see its (2020‑2046) population of Alberta and its 19 Census migration levels recover more significantly than other oil Divisions by single year of age and sex as well as some dependent regions such as CD 12 and CD 16. summary statistics.

Lethbridge: growth potential Population Projection Methodology and Assumptions. CD 2, which includes the city of Lethbridge, is an economically diverse region with industries such as Details the methodology and assumptions of the agriculture, government and manufacturing. This puts long‑term population projections. the region in a better position to cope with an economic recession when compared with some other regions Contact Jennifer Hansen at 78 0.427.8 811 of the province. CD 2 has become an increasingly attractive destination for migrants and their families, as well as for young adults due to its postsecondary institutions. Given its relatively young age structure and higher-than-average fertility, CD 2 has the potential for continued future growth.

Mountain parks: migration supports growth In the past few months, CD 15 (home to both Banff and Jasper) has experienced a significant slowdown in tourism. This is the result of restricted international travel and fewer interprovincial visitors due to COVID-19 during what is typically their busy summer months. This economic slowdown in tourism could also effect demand for temporary foreign workers (a sub-category of NPRs). As a result, this region is expected to have continued net outflows of migrants over the next few years.

Over the projection period, CD 15 is expected to have negative growth from natural increase (-0.8%), due mainly to low fertility (Appendix Map 1). Although there is a large number of young adults, they tend to leave the region before they start families. However, net migration will support overall population growth of 0.15% annually (Appendix Map 3), offsetting the impacts of negative growth due to natural increase.

9 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2020 – 2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | August 28, 2020 Appendix

MAP 1: POPULATION GROWTH DUE TO NATURAL INCREASE, 2019-2046, MEDIUM SCENARIO

Northwest Territories

CD 16 26.9%

CD 17 39.2%

Fort

McM!urray

CD 19

S

23.8% a Slave s k Grande Lake a ! t ! c a i Prairie h

b

e

w m

u CD 12 a l

n o CD 18 16.6% Cold C Lake h 13.2% !

s

i

t

i r CD 13

B Whitecourt Grande ! 0.0% Ca!che

!Edson ! CD 14 Edmonton CD 10 3.5% CD 11 5.0% 14.4% !Camrose

CD 8 Rocky Mtn. 11.8% CD 7 House ! 1.0% Red Deer !Stettler CD 9 ! 8.7%

Hanna Population growth (%) ! CD 6 CD 4 Drumhe!ller due to natural increase, 15.5% -4.1% Banff 2019-2046, medium scenario ! Calgary CD 5 CD 15 ! 5.7% -4.1% - 0.0% -0.8%

0.1% - 5.0% Medicine

5.1% - 10.0% CD 2 H!at 12.7% CD 1 10.1% - 15.0% !Lethbridge 3.8%

15.1% - 20.0% ! CD 3 Pincher 7.6% 20.1% - 39.2% Creek

United States of America Alberta = 14.3%

10 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2020 – 2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | August 28, 2020 MAP 2: POPULATION GROWTH DUE TO NET MIGRATION, 2019-2046, MEDIUM SCENARIO

CD 16 2.8%

CD 17 -20.3%

Fort

McM!urray

CD 19

S

26.6% a Slave s k Grande Lake a ! t ! c a i Prairie h

b

e

w m

u a

l

CD 12 n o Cold

C CD 18 -2.9% Lake h -5.7% ! s

i

t

i r CD 13

B Whitecourt Grande ! -0.9% Ca!che

!Edson ! CD 14 Edmonton CD 10 -2.7% CD 11 15.2% 37.9% !Camrose

CD 8 Rocky Mtn. 32.1% CD 7 House ! -6.9% Red Deer !Stettler CD 9 ! 2.3%

Hanna Population growth (%) ! CD 6 CD 4 Drumhe!ller due to net migration, 37.4% -12.8% Ba!nff CD 5 2019-2046, medium scenario Calgary CD 15 ! 19.2% -20.3% - -10.0% 4.9%

-9.9% - -5.0% Medicine

-4.9% - 0.0% CD 2 H!at 22.3% CD 1 0.1% - 20.0% !Lethbridge 24.3%

20.1% - 30.0% ! CD 3 Pincher -1.5% 30.1% - 37.9% Creek

United States of America Alberta = 30.9%

11 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2020 – 2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | August 28, 2020 MAP 3: AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH (PERCENT), 2019-2046, MEDIUM SCENARIO Northwest Territories

CD 16 0.97%

CD 17 0.64%

Fort

McM!urray

CD 19

S

1.52% a Slave s k Grande Lake a ! t ! c a i Prairie h

b

e

w m

u CD 12 a l

n o CD 18 0.48% Cold C Lake h 0.27% !

s

i

t

i r CD 13

B Whitecourt Grande ! -0.04% Ca!che

!Edson CD 14 Edmonton ! CD 10 0.03% CD 11 0.68% 1.57% !Camrose

CD 8 CD 15 Rocky Mtn. CD 7 1.36% 0.15% House -0.23% ! Red Deer S!tettler CD 9 ! 0.39%

Hanna Average Annual ! CD 6 CD 4 Drumhe!ller Population Growth (%), 1.59% -0.68% Banff 2019-2046, medium scenario ! Calgary CD 5 ! 0.83% -0.68% - -0.50%

-0.49% - 0.00% Medicine

0.01% - 0.50% CD 2 H!at 1.12% CD 1 0.51% - 1.00% !Lethbridge 0.92% 1.01% - 1.50% ! CD 3 Pincher 0.22% 1.51% - 1.59% Creek

United States of America Alberta = 1.39%

12 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2020 – 2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | August 28, 2020