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PEI Population Report Quarterly

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PEI Population Report Quarterly PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND POPULATION REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2021 June 17, 2021 OVERVIEW DIAGRAM 1: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND POPULATION, QUARTERLY, 2016 - 2021 162,000 160,000 158,000 156,000 154,000 152,000 150,000 148,000 146,000 144,000 142,000 Jul 1 Jul Jul 1 Jul 1 Jul 1 Jul 1 Jul Oct 1 Oct 1 Apr 1 Oct 1 Apr 1 Oct 1 Apr 1 Oct 1 Apr 1 Oct 1 Apr Jan 1 Jan 1 Jan 1 Jan 1 Jan 1 Jan 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 On June 17, 2021 Statistics Canada published its provincial population estimates for the first quarter of 2021. The data shows Prince Edward Island’s population is estimated to be 160,536 as of April 1, 2021, reaching the goal of 160,000 set in the Population Action Plan of 2017 well ahead of the December 2022 target. This represents a yearly increase of 1,287 persons or a 0.8 per cent annual growth rate. This is the third highest year over year growth rate among provinces and territories, behind Nunavut and Yukon, which were both at 1.5 per cent. This compares to a rate of 0.4 per cent for Canada as a whole. The quarterly estimates since January 1, 2019 and growth rates for Canada and Prince Edward Island can be seen in Table 1. 1 TABLE 1: NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL POPULATION & GROWTH RATES, QUARTERLY Canada Prince Edward Island Quarter Population Growth rate (%) Population Growth rate (%) Jan. 1, 2019 37,324,239 0.2 155,244 0.1 Apr. 1, 2019 37,417,155 0.2 155,833 0.4 Jul. 1, 2019 37,593,384 0.5 157,262 0.9 Oct. 1, 2019 37,802,043 0.6 158,334 0.7 Jan. 1, 2020 37,899,277 0.3 158,629 0.2 Apr. 1, 2020 37,979,854 0.2 159,249 0.4 Jul. 1, 2020 38,005,238 0.1 159,625 0.2 Oct. 1, 2020 38,008,005 0.0 159,747 0.1 Jan. 1, 2021 38,048,738 0.1 159,819 0.0 Apr. 1, 2021 38,131,104 0.2 160,536 0.4 Newfoundland and Labrador and Northwest Territories were the only jurisdictions to see year-over-year population declines (April 1, 2021 compared to April 1, 2020). Population estimates for April 1, 2020 and 2021 for all provinces and territories are shown in Table 2 below. The population growth rates and level change for the twelve-month period ending March 31, 2021 are also included. TABLE 2: POPULATION OF PROVINCES & TERRITORIES, APRIL 1, 2020 and 2021 & ANNUAL GROWTH RATES Apr 1, 2020 Apr 1, 2021 Growth Level CAN 37,979,854 38,131,104 0.4% 151,250 NL 522,994 520,286 -0.5% -2,708 PEI 159,249 160,536 0.8% 1,287 NS 977,043 982,326 0.5% 5,283 NB 781,024 783,721 0.3% 2,697 QC 8,572,054 8,585,523 0.2% 13,469 ON 14,723,497 14,789,778 0.5% 66,281 MB 1,378,818 1,382,904 0.3% 4,086 SK 1,179,618 1,179,906 0.0% 288 AB 4,417,006 4,444,277 0.6% 27,271 BC 5,142,404 5,174,724 0.6% 32,320 YK 41,980 42,596 1.5% 616 NWT 45,201 44,991 -0.5% -210 NU 38,966 39,536 1.5% 570 2 COMPONENTS OF GROWTH The total increase in PEI’s population from January 1, 2021 to March 31, 2021 was 717 people. Natural Increase There were 317 births and 358 deaths on Prince Edward Island from January 1, 2021 to March 31, 2021, resulting in natural growth (births minus deaths) of minus 41. International Migration The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on international migration were evident during the last three quarters of 2020. International immigration decreased by 10.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2020 compared to the second quarter of 2020, following a decline of 42.1 per cent in the second quarter. Immigration during the fourth quarter of 2020 remained steady compared to the previous quarter but was down 42.3 per cent compared to the same period in 2019. During first quarter 2021, 368 international immigrants came to the province, as compared to 258 the previous quarter. Immigration remains down on a year-over-year basis, falling 25.5 per cent as compared to the first quarter of 2020. At a rate of 2.3 per thousand1, the province had the third highest quarterly immigration rate in the country, behind Manitoba at 2.5 per thousand and Ontario at 2.4 per thousand. The immigration rate for Canada was 1.9 per thousand. Net international migration was estimated to be 685 persons during the first quarter of 2021. This consisted of the 368 international immigrants, 327 non-permanent residents (net), and 1 returning Canadian entering the province, while 8 international emigrants and 3 temporarily abroad Canadians left the province. Net international migration for PEI over the last 12-month period (April 2020 to March 2021) was 1,572. This compares to 3,485 over the previous 12-month period. Net non-permanent residents (NPRs)2 was +327 for the first quarter of 2021, following +37 for the fourth quarter of 2020. NPRs include foreign workers, foreign students, the humanitarian population and other temporary residents. The humanitarian population includes refugee claimants and temporary residents who are allowed to remain in Canada on humanitarian grounds and are not categorized as either foreign workers or foreign students. Inter-provincial Migration A total of 1,009 inter-provincial migrants came to PEI during the first quarter of 2021, while 936 people left the province for other areas of Canada, for a net interprovincial gain of 73. This compares to a net gain of 234 persons over the same period in 2020. As shown in Table 3, the primary source of PEI’s inter- provincial in-migrants during this period was from Ontario, followed by Alberta and Nova Scotia. The main destinations of out-migrants from Prince Edward Island were Ontario, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia. 31.1 per cent of all interprovincial migrants from other provinces were destined for Ontario. 1 Immigration rates are calculated by the PEI Statistics Bureau based on Statistics Canada population estimates. 2 NPR estimates are based on the number of NPRs, not on the net. The number of people in IRCC’s administrative system is estimated on a specific date in each period of observation. First, the end-of-period number of NPR is estimated, and then the start-of-period number of NPR is subtracted from that estimate. That yields the net number of NPR. 3 TABLE 3: ORIGIN & DESTINATION OF INTER-PROVINCIAL MIGRANTS, JANUARY 1, 2021 TO MARCH 31, 2021 DESTINATION ORIGIN N.L. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. Que. Ont. Man. Sask. Alta. B.C. Y.T. N.W.T. Nvt. N.L. 0 44 173 14 39 470 9 32 385 91 0 0 0 P.E.I. 0 0 181 203 31 294 0 0 130 97 0 0 0 N.S. 174 104 0 587 227 665 98 57 450 438 0 18 12 N.B. 26 72 423 0 446 867 47 55 301 61 5 0 25 Que. 40 0 170 431 0 3,574 37 44 465 1,094 0 0 42 Ont. 641 639 2,210 1,248 4,847 0 861 1,117 4,366 5,454 134 74 35 Man. 0 0 60 62 212 1,268 0 483 1,222 1,276 18 61 14 Sask. 45 5 83 19 75 1,776 298 0 2,480 1,306 26 0 9 Alta. 306 135 687 750 660 4,186 552 1,712 0 8,073 57 132 12 B.C. 156 10 550 219 706 2,724 372 442 3,690 0 113 56 0 Y.T. 5 0 28 0 0 42 8 7 29 57 0 23 0 N.W.T. 13 0 63 0 8 66 16 16 360 94 30 0 0 Nvt. 0 0 72 0 10 65 12 0 0 10 0 45 0 N.L. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. Que. Ont. Man. Sask. Alta. B.C. Y.T. N.W.T. Nvt. IN 1,406 1,009 4,700 3,533 7,261 15,997 2,310 3,965 13,878 18,051 383 409 149 OUT 1,257 936 2,830 2,328 5,897 21,626 4,676 6,122 17,262 9,038 199 666 214 NET 149 73 1,870 1,205 1,364 -5,629 -2,366 -2,157 -3,384 9,013 184 -257 -65 Prince Edward Island quarterly components of growth from October 1, 2018 to April 1, 2021 can be seen in table 4. TABLE 4: PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND QUARTERLY POPULATION AND COMPONENTS OF GROWTH OCTOBER 1, 2018 – APRIL 1, 2021 (+) (+) Other (+) Interprovincial (-) Interprovincial Quarter Population (+) Births (-) Deaths Immigrants International* In-Migration Out-Migration Oct 1, 2018 155,129 328 335 437 -338 533 510 Jan 1, 2019 155,244 299 392 544 5 793 660 Apr 1, 2019 155,833 326 349 601 432 1,510 1,091 Jul 1, 2019 157,262 378 323 855 706 604 1,148 Oct 1, 2019 158,334 323 343 447 20 726 878 Jan 1, 2020 158,629 312 350 494 -70 955 721 Apr 1, 2020 159,249 340 351 286 101 1,274 1,274 Jul 1, 2020 159,625 393 305 255 -45 597 773 Oct 1, 2020 159,747 331 334 258 32 496 711 Jan 1, 2021 159,819 317 358 368 317 1,009 936 Apr 1, 2021 160,536 *Other International = Net Non-Permanent Residents - International Emigrants - Canadians Temporarily Abroad + Returning Canadians 4 DIAGRAM 2: PEI COMPONENTS OF GROWTH, JANUARY 1, 2021 – MARCH 31, 2021 5 Impact of COVID-19 on the Population Estimates COVID-19 began to have an impact on the population of Canada during the first quarter of 2020 with the first case in Canada reported in January 2020 and the first death in early March.
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