Five Ways the 2016 Census Affects Marketers
February 15, 2018
Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer
Rupen Seoni Senior Vice President and Practice Leader
© 2018 Environics Analytics Today’s presenters
Dr. Doug Norris Rupen Seoni Senior Vice President and Chief Senior Vice President and Demographer Practice Leader
2 © 2018 Environics Analytics housekeeping
• Listen-only mode for attendees • Questions at the end. Use the Webex Q&A Feature in your Interface • Technical difficulties? 1-866-229-3239 • Presentation deck will be available environicsanalytics.com/webcasts
3 © 2018 Environics Analytics 1. Growth or decline? It Depends where you are
4 © 2018 Environics Analytics Canada’s Population increased by 1.7 million between 2011-2016
Census Population and Growth Rate, Canada Census Population (millions) Census Population Growth Rate (%) 40.0 16% 35.2 Population GrowthCensus Rate (%) 35.0 13.4 33.5 14% 31.6 28.8 30.0 30.0 27.3 12% 9.7 24.3 25.3 25.0 23.0 10% 21.6 20.0 7.8 7.9 20.0 18.2 8% 16.1 6.6 5.9 5.7 5.9 15.0 5.4 5.0 6% 4.0 4.0 10.0 4% Census (millions) Population 5.0 2%
0.0 0% 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Source: Statistics Canada, various Censuses
© 2018 Environics Analytics Growth was highest in Northern and Western Canada
Population Growth Rate (%), Canada, Provinces and Territories, 2006-2011 and 2011-2016
2006 to 2011 2011 to 2016
12.7 11.6 11.6 10.8
8.3 7.0 6.7 6.3 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.2 5.6 % 5.0 4.6 4.7 3.3 3.2 2.9 1.9 1.8 0.9 1.0 0.0 0.8 0.2 -0.5 NU AB SK MB YK BC Canada ON QC PEI NL NWT NS NB
Source: Various Censuses
© 2018 Environics Analytics Growth in Alberta has declined, but it is still close to average
Population Growth
3.5% Alberta 3.0%
2.5%
2.0% Saskatchewan Ontario 1.5% Saskatchewan Canada Canada Alberta 1.0% Ontario
0.5% 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates
7 © 2018 Environics Analytics big markets are getting bigger, while growth in rural areas slows
Population by Geography Growth Rate 2006-2011 2011-2016 Rural 17% 7.5 6.9 117 Medium Largest 6 4.9 4.8 Sized CMAs* 3.5 3.3 3.3 12% 47% % 1.4 Other 29 CMAs 6 29 117 Rural 24% Largest Other Medium CMAs* CMAs Sized
* Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa-Gatineau, Edmonton
Source: Statistics Canada, various Censuses
© 2018 Environics Analytics 9 © 2018 Environics Analytics Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census
© 2018 Environics Analytics 1. Growth or decline? It Depends Marketing implications where you are • Growth in Canada is very localized. Marketers shouldn’t make plans based on generalities
• Use data tailored to your specific market, trade area, etc. to assess opportunities
11 © 2018 Environics Analytics Demographic estimates and projections
12 © 2018 Environics Analytics 2. It’s official: we’re old
13 © 2018 Environics Analytics Canada Now has More Seniors than Children
Percent of Population, Canada
Age 0-14 Age 65+
34 34 32 30 30 28 24.5 23 23.9 21 16.9 21.1 % 19 16.6 17 16.3 15 15.6 15.2 12 13 10 7 8 8 8 5 6
1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2016 2026 2036 2046
Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census; Medium projections
14 © 2018 Environics Analytics By 2046, one in Four Canadians will be 65 Years and older…
Percent of Population, Canada
Age 0-14 Age 65+
34 34 32 30 30 28 24.5 23 23.9 21 16.6 16.9 21.1 % 19 17 16.3 15 15.6 15.2 12 13 10 7 8 8 8 5 6
1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2016 2026 2036 2046
Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census; Medium projections
15 © 2018 Environics Analytics …And this trend will continue in the future
Projected Population Growth, 2016-2026, Canada Projected Population Growth, 2016-2036, Canada
2016-2026 2016-2036 111
72
% 40 % 29 10 4 18 8
Total Under 65 65+ 85+ Total Under 65 65+ 85+
Source: Statistics Canada, Medium Population Projections
16 © 2018 Environics Analytics Declines at some age groups
Percent Population Change 2011-2016, Canada
16.0 12 8 % 5 1.2 0.1 2.5 5 5 0.7 -3.0 -7 -12
Total 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55+
Age Groups
Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census
17 © 2018 Environics Analytics the suburbs are no longer only for young families; seniors are a growing segment in this market
2011-2016 Growth of Population 65+ Population Aged 65+, 2016 City Suburbs City Suburbs
31.1 25.4 22.8 19.1 % % 16.0 16.7 15.6 15.5 15.8 13.1 13.5 9.0
Montreal GTA Vancouver Montreal GTA Vancouver
GTA = Greater Toronto Area Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census
18 © 2018 Environics Analytics Older population had high growth and high increase in spending power
Growth in Population Distribution of After Tax Income, Growth in After Tax Income, 2006-2016 2015 2005-2015
35.9 35.4 Age 15-34 Age 55 + 20% 21.4 37% 19.9
% 11.2 % 8.0 Age 35-54 9.4 43% -2.2 All ages 15-34 35-54 55 + All ages 15-34 35-54 55 + Age groups Age groups
Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census
19 © 2018 Environics Analytics 2. it’s official: we’re old Marketing implications
• Rapid growth in senior population is expected to continue for the next decade, before it starts to level off
• Expect this generation of seniors to tend to stay in their suburban neighbourhoods as they age
• As the baby bust generation ages, there will be a “senior bust,” but it will be much less pronounced
20 © 2018 Environics Analytics Demographic estimates and projections
21 © 2018 Environics Analytics 3. The household has many versions
22 © 2018 Environics Analytics WHAT IS THE MOST COMMON HOUSEHOLD TYPE IN CANADA?
PARENTS W/KIDS, EMPTY NESTS, SINGLES, LONE-PARENT FAMILIES
23 © 2018 Environics Analytics A diversity of households
Types of Households, 2016 Change in Number of Households 2011-2016
Total 5.6 % Couple without children 6.9 Non-family Couple One-person 2 or more without Couple with children 1.5 28.2% persons children Lone-parent 5.0 4.1% 25.8% Multigenerational 11.6 Couple Other with Other census family 5.6 3.6% Lone- children parent Non-family 2+ persons 7.2 Multigenerational 26.5% 8.9% household One-person 8.1 2.9% 2016 Total Households: 14,072,080
Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census
24 © 2018 Environics Analytics Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census
© 2018 Environics Analytics Older men and women have very different living arrangements
Living Arrangements of Older Adults Aged 65 and Over, Canada, 2016
Females Males 11 31 Couple in Private 46 18 household 47 57 66 63 74 17 With Others 76 76 34 9 15 12 Alone 20 % 12 38 % 7 33 7 6 6 28 37 18 24 In Collective 16 16 16 24 14 2 9 3 6 4 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85 and 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85 and Age Groups Over Age Groups Over
Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census
26 © 2018 Environics Analytics 3. The household has many versions Marketing implications
• The nuclear family is the exception
• Household size is drifting downward, so population in an area will slowly fall unless additional households are formed
• More people will be living alone, combined with an aging population means more women living alone
27 © 2018 Environics Analytics 4. Cultural Diversity 2.0
28 © 2018 Environics Analytics Immigrants at highest level since 1931
Number and Proportion of Foreign-born Population in Canada, 1871 to 2036 Number Percentage 14,000,000 28.2 30% 26.7 25.2 23.7 12,000,000 25% 22.0 22.3 22.2 21.9 19.8 20.6 10,000,000 18.4 17.5 17.4 20% 16.1 16.0 16.1 8,000,000 15.6 15.3 15.6 13.9 14.7 13.3 13.0 15% 6,000,000 10% 4,000,000
2,000,000 5%
0 0% 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
7,540,830 Total immigrants, 2016 356,000 Non-permanent residents, 2016 Source: Statistics Canada
© 2018 Environics Analytics Immigrant numbers will continue to increase
Number and Proportion of Foreign-born Population in Canada, 1871 to 2036 Number Percentage Actual Projected 14,000,000 28.2 30% 26.7 25.2 23.7 12,000,000 25% 22.0 22.3 22.2 21.9 19.8 20.6 10,000,000 18.4 17.5 17.4 20% 16.1 16.0 16.1 8,000,000 15.6 15.3 15.6 13.9 14.7 13.3 13.0 15% 6,000,000 10% 4,000,000
2,000,000 5%
0 0% 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
7,540,830 Total immigrants, 2016 356,000 Non-permanent residents, 2016 Source: Statistics Canada Diversity projections
30 © 2018 Environics Analytics Immigrants spreading out across the country
Immigrants by Province, Canada Immigrants 2011-2016 Percent Change from 2001-2006 Ontario 472,200 -18.7 Quebec 215,200 11.0 Alberta 207,800 100.4 British Columbia 175,600 -1.3 Manitoba 63,200 102.7 Saskatchewan 47,900 492.5 Nova Scotia 11,800 70.9 New Brunswick 9,300 117.1 Newfoundland and Labrador 3,700 154.3 Prince Edward Island 3,400 293.0
1,212,080 Total Canada 2011-2016 Percent change: 14.8%
Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census
© 2018 Environics Analytics Increased immigration from Syria, Iran and Philippines
Number of Immigrants 2011-2016, Percentage Change in Number of Immigrants, Top Countries of Birth 2006-2011 to 2011-2016 count Philippines 191,500 Syria 490.9 % India 169,300 Iran 56.4 China 139,800 Philippines 46.9 Iran 54,700 Nigeria 34.5 Pakistan 51,700 France 17.7 Syria 30,000 Pakistan 11.8 United States of America 40,000 India 9.7 France 26,500 China -7.5 United Kingdom 29,300 United States of America -13.7 Nigeria 19,000 United Kingdom -30.0
Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census
32 © 2018 Environics Analytics degree of acculturation as reflected in time in Canada and language use is important in any ethnic marketing venture
Language Use other than English or French, Immigrants, Canada, 2016
Mother tongue-Other* Language spoken most often at home-Other Speaks only "Other" language at home
77.3 75.8 75.6 71.2
56.2 49.7 45.1 46.1 37.7 30.4 27.6 26.5 21.9 23.0 13.3
Before 1981 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2016
* Other refers to other than English or French Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census
© 2018 Environics Analytics Visible minority population will continue to increase
Percent of the Population Visible Minority, CMAs, 2016, Canada
2016 Toronto 51 Ottawa - Gatineau 22 66 % Projected 2036 % 38 % 20 Vancouver 49 Windsor 62 34 K - C - W 19 Calgary 34 33 49 Hamilton 18 Abbotsford - Mission 29 27 43 18 Regina 25 Edmonton 28 42 17 Oshawa 25 Winnipeg 26 46 17 Saskatoon 35 Montréal 23 17 37 Guelph 26 Canada 22 16 34 London 23
K-C-W is Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo
Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census
© 2018 Environics Analytics 35 © 2018 Environics Analytics Emerging young second generation with increasingly mixed identities
Percent of Population Visible Minority by Generation, 2016, Canada
First generation 2+ generations Total on top 28 27 27 27 4 22 7 21 13 1 7 % 22 15 1 13 1 23 20 20 15 14 14 12 6
All ages 0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 + Age Groups
Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census
© 2018 Environics Analytics 4. Cultural Diversity 2.0 Marketing implications
• Visible minorities will be the majority in Toronto and Vancouver
• Diversity will be much more pronounced everywhere in the country
• For the next generation, diversity is the norm and they have mixed identities and influences
• “Multicultural marketing” will change and maybe not exist only as selective campaigns to reach a specific ethnicity
37 © 2018 Environics Analytics Environics Analytics’ authoritative Acculturation categories for Chinese segmentation system and South Asians
Demographic estimates and projections
38 © 2018 Environics Analytics 5. The future is female
39 © 2018 Environics Analytics Large gender gap for population under age 45
Percentage Population with Post Secondary Credentials, 2016 74 74 Total on top 67 64 63 66 58 54 55 41 37 University at bachelor 29 25 27 47 45 29 21 level or above 20 22 16 16 30 College, CEGEP or % 23 22 20 8 21 30 31 17 13 university below 27 27 24 17 bachelors 14 14 15 16 16 16 Apprenticeship or 6 7 8 7 7 5 Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female trades certificate or 25-34 25-34 35-44 35-44 45-54 45-54 55-64 55-64 65-74 65-74 75 + 75 + diploma 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 + Age Groups
Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census
40 © 2018 Environics Analytics Major gains in female representation in many professions
Female Representation in Selected Professions, 2016, Canada
Ages 54-64 Ages 25-34 at end Veterinarians 39.8 81.3 % General practitioners and family physicians 37.5 58.6 Optometrists 36.0 69.9 Biologists and related scientists 33.5 61.8 Lawyers and Quebec notaries 30.8 55.4 Specialist physicians 30.4 54.8 Photographers 26.8 65.0 Dentists 23.5 55.1 Architects 21.9 49.3 Chiropractors 17.9 52.2 Chemical engineers 10.3 34.5 50%
Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census
41 © 2018 Environics Analytics Higher income increases for women
Change in Median Total Income 2005-2015, Age 25-34, Canada
Male Female 46.5 41.0 36.1 33.4
25.1 21.0 19.8 19.0 19.7 15.8 16.0 16.4 % 15.0 13.5 12.4 11.0 11.3 5.4 6.3 5.2 9.0 -7.2 Canada NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC Canada NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC Median Income 2015, Canada Males $41,154 Females $32,942
Source: Various Censuses
© 2018 Environics Analytics In nearly a third of couples, women now have higher incomes
Percent of Couples Where a Female is the Higher Total Income Recipient, 2015, Canada
32.6 31.8 30.6 30.2 25.7
%
All ages 15-29 30-54 55-64 65 + Age of older person
Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census
43 © 2018 Environics Analytics 5. The future is female Marketing implications
• Better education with more earning power and fewer women living with men will mean more decisions will be made by women
• Understand decision-making by men vs. women if your category is not currently catering to women
• Completely new opportunities may exist in growing numbers of female-only households
44 © 2018 Environics Analytics The five ways the census affects marketers
1. Growth or decline? It depends where you are
2. It’s official: we’re old
3. The household has many versions
4. Cultural Diversity 2.0
5. The future is female
45 © 2018 Environics Analytics Demographic estimates and projections Financial wealth estimates
Acculturation categories for Chinese Environics Analytics’ authoritative and South Asians segmentation system
Enhanced census data
46 © 2018 Environics Analytics Questions?
© 2018 Environics Analytics