Five Ways the 2016 Census Affects Marketers February 15, 2018 Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer Rupen Seoni Senior Vice President and Practice Leader © 2018 Environics Analytics Today’s presenters Dr. Doug Norris Rupen Seoni Senior Vice President and Chief Senior Vice President and Demographer Practice Leader 2 © 2018 Environics Analytics housekeeping • Listen-only mode for attendees • Questions at the end. Use the Webex Q&A Feature in your Interface • Technical difficulties? 1-866-229-3239 • Presentation deck will be available environicsanalytics.com/webcasts 3 © 2018 Environics Analytics 1. Growth or decline? It Depends where you are 4 © 2018 Environics Analytics Canada’s Population increased by 1.7 million between 2011-2016 Census Population and Growth Rate, Canada Census Population (millions) Census Population Growth Rate (%) 40.0 16% 35.2 (%) Rate Census Growth Population 35.0 13.4 33.5 14% 31.6 28.8 30.0 30.0 27.3 12% 9.7 24.3 25.3 25.0 23.0 10% 21.6 20.0 7.8 7.9 20.0 18.2 8% 16.1 6.6 5.9 5.7 5.9 15.0 5.4 5.0 6% 4.0 4.0 10.0 4% Census (millions) Population 5.0 2% 0.0 0% 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Source: Statistics Canada, various Censuses © 2018 Environics Analytics Growth was highest in Northern and Western Canada Population Growth Rate (%), Canada, Provinces and Territories, 2006-2011 and 2011-2016 2006 to 2011 2011 to 2016 12.7 11.6 11.6 10.8 8.3 7.0 6.7 6.3 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.2 5.6 % 5.0 4.6 4.7 3.3 3.2 2.9 1.9 1.8 0.9 1.0 0.0 0.8 0.2 -0.5 NU AB SK MB YK BC Canada ON QC PEI NL NWT NS NB Source: Various Censuses © 2018 Environics Analytics Growth in Alberta has declined, but it is still close to average Population Growth 3.5% Alberta 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% Saskatchewan Ontario 1.5% Saskatchewan Canada Canada Alberta 1.0% Ontario 0.5% 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates 7 © 2018 Environics Analytics big markets are getting bigger, while growth in rural areas slows Population by Geography Growth Rate 2006-2011 2011-2016 Rural 17% 7.5 6.9 117 Medium Largest 6 4.9 4.8 Sized CMAs* 3.5 3.3 3.3 12% 47% % 1.4 Other 29 CMAs 6 29 117 Rural 24% Largest Other Medium CMAs* CMAs Sized * Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa-Gatineau, Edmonton Source: Statistics Canada, various Censuses © 2018 Environics Analytics 9 © 2018 Environics Analytics Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census © 2018 Environics Analytics 1. Growth or decline? It Depends Marketing implications where you are • Growth in Canada is very localized. Marketers shouldn’t make plans based on generalities • Use data tailored to your specific market, trade area, etc. to assess opportunities 11 © 2018 Environics Analytics Demographic estimates and projections 12 © 2018 Environics Analytics 2. It’s official: we’re old 13 © 2018 Environics Analytics Canada Now has More Seniors than Children Percent of Population, Canada Age 0-14 Age 65+ 34 34 32 30 30 28 24.5 23 23.9 21 16.9 21.1 % 19 16.6 17 16.3 15 15.6 15.2 12 13 10 7 8 8 8 5 6 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2016 2026 2036 2046 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census; Medium projections 14 © 2018 Environics Analytics By 2046, one in Four Canadians will be 65 Years and older… Percent of Population, Canada Age 0-14 Age 65+ 34 34 32 30 30 28 24.5 23 23.9 21 16.6 16.9 21.1 % 19 17 16.3 15 15.6 15.2 12 13 10 7 8 8 8 5 6 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2016 2026 2036 2046 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census; Medium projections 15 © 2018 Environics Analytics …And this trend will continue in the future Projected Population Growth, 2016-2026, Canada Projected Population Growth, 2016-2036, Canada 2016-2026 2016-2036 111 72 % 40 % 29 10 4 18 8 Total Under 65 65+ 85+ Total Under 65 65+ 85+ Source: Statistics Canada, Medium Population Projections 16 © 2018 Environics Analytics Declines at some age groups Percent Population Change 2011-2016, Canada 16.0 12 8 % 5 1.2 0.1 2.5 5 5 0.7 -3.0 -7 -12 Total 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55+ Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 17 © 2018 Environics Analytics the suburbs are no longer only for young families; seniors are a growing segment in this market 2011-2016 Growth of Population 65+ Population Aged 65+, 2016 City Suburbs City Suburbs 31.1 25.4 22.8 19.1 % % 16.0 16.7 15.6 15.5 15.8 13.1 13.5 9.0 Montreal GTA Vancouver Montreal GTA Vancouver GTA = Greater Toronto Area Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 18 © 2018 Environics Analytics Older population had high growth and high increase in spending power Growth in Population Distribution of After Tax Income, Growth in After Tax Income, 2006-2016 2015 2005-2015 35.9 35.4 Age 15-34 Age 55 + 20% 21.4 37% 19.9 % 11.2 % 8.0 Age 35-54 9.4 43% -2.2 All ages 15-34 35-54 55 + All ages 15-34 35-54 55 + Age groups Age groups Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 19 © 2018 Environics Analytics 2. it’s official: we’re old Marketing implications • Rapid growth in senior population is expected to continue for the next decade, before it starts to level off • Expect this generation of seniors to tend to stay in their suburban neighbourhoods as they age • As the baby bust generation ages, there will be a “senior bust,” but it will be much less pronounced 20 © 2018 Environics Analytics Demographic estimates and projections 21 © 2018 Environics Analytics 3. The household has many versions 22 © 2018 Environics Analytics WHAT IS THE MOST COMMON HOUSEHOLD TYPE IN CANADA? PARENTS W/KIDS, EMPTY NESTS, SINGLES, LONE-PARENT FAMILIES 23 © 2018 Environics Analytics A diversity of households Types of Households, 2016 Change in Number of Households 2011-2016 Total 5.6 % Couple without children 6.9 Non-family Couple One-person 2 or more without Couple with children 1.5 28.2% persons children Lone-parent 5.0 4.1% 25.8% Multigenerational 11.6 Couple Other with Other census family 5.6 3.6% Lone- children parent Non-family 2+ persons 7.2 Multigenerational 26.5% 8.9% household One-person 8.1 2.9% 2016 Total Households: 14,072,080 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 24 © 2018 Environics Analytics Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census © 2018 Environics Analytics Older men and women have very different living arrangements Living Arrangements of Older Adults Aged 65 and Over, Canada, 2016 Females Males 11 31 Couple in Private 46 18 household 47 57 66 63 74 17 With Others 76 76 34 9 15 12 Alone 20 % 12 38 % 7 33 7 6 6 28 37 18 24 In Collective 16 16 16 24 14 2 9 3 6 4 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85 and 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85 and Age Groups Over Age Groups Over Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 26 © 2018 Environics Analytics 3. The household has many versions Marketing implications • The nuclear family is the exception • Household size is drifting downward, so population in an area will slowly fall unless additional households are formed • More people will be living alone, combined with an aging population means more women living alone 27 © 2018 Environics Analytics 4. Cultural Diversity 2.0 28 © 2018 Environics Analytics Immigrants at highest level since 1931 Number and Proportion of Foreign-born Population in Canada, 1871 to 2036 Number Percentage 14,000,000 28.2 30% 26.7 25.2 23.7 12,000,000 25% 22.0 22.3 22.2 21.9 19.8 20.6 10,000,000 18.4 17.5 17.4 20% 16.1 16.0 16.1 8,000,000 15.6 15.3 15.6 13.9 14.7 13.3 13.0 15% 6,000,000 10% 4,000,000 2,000,000 5% 0 0% 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 7,540,830 Total immigrants, 2016 356,000 Non-permanent residents, 2016 Source: Statistics Canada © 2018 Environics Analytics Immigrant numbers will continue to increase Number and Proportion of Foreign-born Population in Canada, 1871 to 2036 Number Percentage Actual Projected 14,000,000 28.2 30% 26.7 25.2 23.7 12,000,000 25% 22.0 22.3 22.2 21.9 19.8 20.6 10,000,000 18.4 17.5 17.4 20% 16.1 16.0 16.1 8,000,000 15.6 15.3 15.6 13.9 14.7 13.3 13.0 15% 6,000,000 10% 4,000,000 2,000,000 5% 0 0% 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 7,540,830 Total immigrants, 2016 356,000 Non-permanent residents, 2016 Source: Statistics Canada Diversity projections 30 © 2018 Environics Analytics Immigrants spreading out across the country Immigrants by Province, Canada Immigrants 2011-2016 Percent Change from 2001-2006 Ontario 472,200 -18.7 Quebec 215,200 11.0 Alberta 207,800 100.4 British Columbia 175,600 -1.3 Manitoba 63,200 102.7 Saskatchewan 47,900 492.5 Nova Scotia 11,800 70.9 New Brunswick 9,300 117.1 Newfoundland and Labrador 3,700 154.3 Prince Edward Island 3,400 293.0 1,212,080 Total Canada 2011-2016 Percent change: 14.8% Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census © 2018 Environics Analytics Increased immigration from Syria, Iran and Philippines Number of Immigrants 2011-2016, Percentage Change in Number of Immigrants, Top Countries of Birth 2006-2011 to 2011-2016 count Philippines 191,500 Syria 490.9 % India 169,300 Iran 56.4 China 139,800 Philippines 46.9 Iran 54,700 Nigeria 34.5 Pakistan 51,700 France 17.7 Syria 30,000 Pakistan 11.8 United States of America 40,000 India 9.7 France 26,500 China -7.5 United Kingdom 29,300 United States of America -13.7 Nigeria 19,000 United Kingdom -30.0 Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 32 © 2018 Environics Analytics degree of acculturation as reflected in time in Canada and language use is important in any ethnic marketing venture Language Use other than English or French, Immigrants, Canada, 2016