sign in sign up
<<
Home , Alberta, Statistics Canada

Population Projections and Divisions, 2021– 2046

In 2046, Alberta’s population is expected to: • Reach almost 6.4 million people, an increase of roughly 1.9 million people from 2020. • Become older, with an average age of 41.5 years, up from 38.5 years in 2020. • Become increasingly diverse, as arrivals from other countries account for about 54% of the expected growth over the projection period. • Become more concentrated in urban centres, especially along the - Corridor; 80% of Albertans are expected to live in this region by 2046. Population projections from 2021 to 2046 for Alberta and its 19 census divisions are now available. Three sets of assumptions (i.e., low, medium and high population growth scenarios) were prepared. This document highlights the main characteristics of Alberta’s projected population, focusing mainly on the medium (reference) scenario, unless otherwise indicated.

Alberta Population Projections

Alberta to post steady long-term and reach the 6.0 million mark by 2042. Under the low population growth and high scenarios, Alberta’s total population in 2046 is By 2046, Alberta is expected to be home to almost projected to be around 5.6 million and 7.5 million; gains of 6.4 million people, representing an average annual 1.2 million and 3.0 million, respectively. growth rate of about 1.4%, or an increase of roughly Migration to the is dependent on a number 1.9 million people from 2020 (Figure 1). In contrast, the of factors, including Alberta’s economic conditions projected growth will be lower than the 1.9% experienced relative to other . Leading up to the over the previous 25-year period (1995 to 2020), due to pandemic, Alberta had been slowly recovering from Albertapopulation Population aging Projections and slower gains in migration. Alberta’s the 2015-2016 recession. However the PDFdual name: shock 2021-2046population is projected to surpass 5.0 million by 2030 of the COVID‑19 pandemic and collapse in oil prices Figure 1: Alberta Population, Historical (1972-2020) and Projectedsent the (2021-2046)economy into an unprecedented contraction in 2020, further delaying the recovery. While the FIGURE 1: POPULATION OF ALBERTA Alberta economy has rebounded since then, the effect 1972-2046 on migration is expected to continue over the short (millions) term. The COVID‑19 pandemic primarily affected net 8 Estimated Projected international migration. Travel restrictions and delays 7 in issuing work and permanent residency permits 6 slowed migration to Alberta from abroad starting in 5 March 2020, causing net international migration levels 4 to fall. Net international migration in 2021 is expected 3 to be significantly lower than the recent past, but 2 should improve over the next few years as vaccine 1 rollouts in and around the world up 0 the possibility for the easing of international travel restrictions. Furthermore, the federal government has significantly increased immigration targets over the Estimated Medium next three years, which should provide a further boost High Low to international migration. Sources: Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

1 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2021–2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | July 2, 2021 chrt_01.pdf

P:\InDesign\_OSI_Publications\Demography_publications\Alberta Population Projection\2021\2021-2046- Population Projections\Source_documents\: PopProj 2021: Figure 1

#Classification: Protected A 2021-06-02: 3:41 PM In 2020, Alberta posted a small net inflow of Natural increase remains a significant, but interprovincial migrants. However, interprovincial diminishing source of growth migration is expected to show a lagged response to Natural increase (births minus deaths) is expected to the economic impacts of the pandemic. As a result, continue to have a positive impact on the province’s net outflows of interprovincial migrants are expected growth, adding over 600,000 people by 2046 (Figure 2). for the 2021 to 2023 period. Between 2020 and 2023, The degree to which natural increase contributes to Alberta’s population is projected to grow at an average population growth is partly influenced by migration annual rate of 1.0%, compared with 1.3% during the patterns. The majority of the more than 1.3 million net 2016 to 2020 period (Figure 2). migrants projected to arrive over the next 26 years will be young adults aged 18 to 34. An influx of people in Alberta Population Projections the child-bearing ages is projectedPDF to name: boost the number 2021-2046 FIGURE 2: COMPONENTS OF POPULATION GROWTH of births over the period. Despite this, the impact of Alberta, 1972-2046 natural increase on growth will diminish over time, as (000) deaths are also expected to increase rapidly with the 140 advanced aging of the baby boom cohort. For instance, 120 Estimated Projected on an average day in 2020, 142 new Albertans were 100 born, while about 75 people died. By 2046, the average 80 number of daily deaths is expected to nearly double 60 40 to around 139 per day, while births will likely show a 20 smaller increase to 202 per day. The narrowing gap 0 between births and deaths in the future means that the -20 average daily population gain due to natural increase will -40 also decrease from 68 in 2020 to about 64 by 2046.

Net International Migration Net Interprovincial Migration Albertans are expected to live longer Natural Increase On average, a girl born in Alberta in 2020 could expect Sources: and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance to live to 83.9 years of age, while a boy could reach 79.2 years. Under the medium growth scenario, life expectancy at birth for females is projected to rise Over the medium term (i.e., 2024 to 2028), as economic to 87.0 years by 2046, while for males it is expected conditions improve and net interprovincial migration to reach 83.7 years. Consistent with historical becomes positive, population growth is expected to trends, males are expected to see faster gains in accelerate, averaging 1.5% annually during that time. chrt_02.pdf life expectancy, and consequently the gap between females and males is also expected to narrow from 4.7 Despite increasing migration levels, population growth years in 2020 to 3.3 years by 2046. is expected to slow gradually over the projection period, dropping from 1.6% in 2027 to 1.3% in 2046. This trend Life expectancy at age 65 is also expected to increase. is due to lower natural increase and population aging. A man reaching age 65 in 2020 could expect to live, on In all three scenarios, future population growth is mainly average, another 19.5 years, compared to 22.3 years driven by migration, particularly international migration. for women. Life expectancy at age 65 is projected Total net migration from all sources (around 1.34 million to increase to 21.7 years for men and 24.3 years for people) is projected to account for 69% of Alberta’s women by 2046. population growth under the medium scenario, with natural increase accounting for the remaining 31% Alberta’s population getting older (Figure 2). Of the anticipated net migrants, 78% would arrive from other parts of the world. Net interprovincial In 2020, Alberta was the youngest province, but its migration is expected to account for over 15% of the population continued to age due to below-replace- province’s growth, or 294,000 new residents between ment fertility and a rising life expectancy. Despite the 2020 and 2046 under the medium growth scenario. anticipated addition of a substantial number of young people through migration, population aging is expected to continue over the projection period (Figure 3). In 2020, the average age1 of the provincial population was 38.5 years, a figure that is projected to climb to 41.5 years by 2046.

1 Average age has replaced median age in these projections as it adjusts better for changes in the age structure as the baby boomers become increasingly older.

2 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2021–2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | July 2, 2021

P:\InDesign\_OSI_Publications\Demography_publications\Alberta Population Projection\2021\2021-2046- Population Projections\Source_documents\: PopProj 2021: Figure 2

#Classification: Protected A 2021-06-29: 2:58 PM Baby boomers accelerate aging The large baby boom cohort (people born between 1946 and 1965) will have a significant impact on the rate of population aging over the next few decades. In 2020, baby boomers were aged 55 to 74 years and accounted for about 21% of the population (Figure 3). As baby boomers get older, aging is expected to accelerate until 2030, when the last of that large cohort reaches 65 years of age.

In 2020, people aged 65 and older represented about 14% of the population. Under the medium growth scenario Alberta Population Projections PDF name: one in five, or 20%, is expected to be 65 years or older by 2046. By 2029, seniors will make up a larger share of the 2021-2046population than children aged 0 to 14 years. This trend has already occurred at the national level. FIGURE 3: Alberta's Age , 2020 vs. 2046

FIGURE 3: ALBERTA’S POPULATION PYRAMIDS 2020 vs. 2046 Males Females 90+ Parents of baby boomers, 85 Parents of baby boomers, 1919 to 1940 1919 to 1940 80 75 Baby boomers, 70 Baby boomers, 1946 to 1965 65 1946 to 1965 60 55 50 Children of 45 Children of baby boomers, 40 baby boomers, 1972 to 1992 1972 to 1992 35 30 Generation Z, 25 Generation Z, 1993 to current 20 1993 to current 15 10 5 0 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 Percentage of Population AB Females 2020 AB Males 2020 AB Males 2046 AB Females 2046

Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance Note: Information boxes indicate generations in 2020. Alberta Population Projections PDF name: 2021-2046 More people depend on the working-age population FigureFIGURE 4: 4: Proportion PROPORTION of OF Total TOTAL Population POPULATION by Age Group, Medium, 1972-2046 BY AGE GROUP The number of working-age Albertans (aged 15 to 64 Alberta, 1972-2046 years) is expected to grow under all scenarios. Under (%) the medium scenario, the working-age population will Projected increase from almost 3.0 million in 2020 to 4.0 million by 80 Estimated 2046. However, as a share of the total population, this 70 age group is anticipated to shrink, falling from around 60 68% in 2020 to about 63% by 2046 (Figure 4). 50 40 Due to the increasing share of seniors and the 30 chrt_03.pdfdeclining share of the working-age population, the total 20 2 dependency ratio is expected to increase significantly 10 P:\InDesign\_OSI_Publications\Demography_publications\Alberta Population Projection\2021\2021-2046-Population Projections\Source_documents\: over the projection period. In 2020, there were around 0 PopProj 482021: dependents Figure 3 for every 100 Alberta residents aged

#Classification:15 to 64 Protected years. By A 2046, it is expected that the total 2021-06-02: 3:36 PM 0-14 15-64 65+ 2 The dependency ratio refers to the ratio of the population not typically in the labour force (children and the elderly) to the population that typically is (those aged 15 to Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance 64).

chrt_04.pdf

3 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2021–2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | July 2, 2021

P:\InDesign\_OSI_Publications\Demography_publications\Alberta Population Projection\2021\2021-2046- Population Projections\Source_documents\: PopProj 2021: Figure 4

#Classification: Protected A 2021-06-02: 3:41 PM dependency ratio will climb to around 58 dependents. Males likely to continue to outnumber females The higher ratio will mainly be driven by the rapid Alberta has consistently been home to more males increase in the senior (or 65 years of age and older) than females, mainly due to the large proportion of portion of the population (Figure 5). working-age males migrating to the province. This Alberta Population Projections trend in the sex ratio (ratio of males to females)PDF name:is 2021-2046 expected to continue. FIGURE 5: DEPENDENCY RATIOS Figure(PER 5:100 Dependency WORKING AGE Ratios INDIVIDUALS) (per 100 working age individuals),Over Alberta the projection period, the sex ratio is expected to Alberta, 1996-2046 remain quite stable at 101 males per 100 females. This is unusual, because the sex ratio tends to decrease in 35 Historical Projected aging populations. In most provinces, the aging of the 30 large baby boom cohort into the senior ages and higher female life expectancies tend to pull the sex ratio in 25 favour of females. However, Alberta does not follow this 20 pattern. Net migration inflows over the projection period may continue to tip the province’s overall sex ratio in 15 Youth (0-14) Dependency favour of males, which in turn, helps prop up the sex 10 Ratio ratio. These two opposing forces will keep the sex ratio Elderly (65+) fairly stable over the projection period. 5 Dependency Ratio 0 Age Structure of Alberta Population By 2046, there will be more people of every age Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance compared with 2020 (Figure 6). The baby boomers Alberta Population Projections will be swelling the ranks of the province’s oldest PDF name: residents, while their children, who are the oldest 2021-2046 chrt_05.pdf cohort of the ‘echo’ generation, will have begun to Alberta's Age Pyramids, 2020 vs. 2046

FIGURE 6: ALBERTA’S POPULATION BY AGE AND SEX (THOUSANDS) 2020 vs. 2046 Males Females 90+ Parents of baby boomers, Parents of baby boomers, 1919 to 1940 85 1919 to 1940 80 75 Baby boomers, 70 Baby boomers, 1946 to 1965 1946 to 1965 65 60 55 50 Children of baby boomers, 45 Children of baby boomers, 1972 to 1992 1972 to 1992 40 35 30 Generation Z, 25 Generation Z, 1993 to current 20 1993 to current 15 10 5 0 65 55 45 35 25 15 5 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 Population (Thousands) AB Females 2020 AB Males 2020 AB Males 2046 AB Females 2046

Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance Note: Information boxes indicate generations in 2020.

4 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2021–2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | July 2, 2021

P:\InDesign\_OSI_Publications\Demography_publications\Alberta Population Projection\2021\2021-2046- Population Projections\Source_documents\: PopProj 2021: Figure 5 chrt_06.pdf #Classification: Protected A 2021-06-02: 3:42 PM

P:\InDesign\_OSI_Publications\Demography_publications\Alberta Population Projection\2021\2021-2046-Population Projections\Source_documents\: PopProj 2021: Figure 6

#Classification: Protected A 2021-06-02: 3:42 PM enter their senior years. The next section outlines the 2031, however, growth of young adults is expected projected size of specific age groupings. to accelerate due to a larger cohort of children aging into this group, along with increasing migration to the Stable numbers of young children and growing province. By 2046, the number of young adults is in school ages expected to reach almost 527,000 (Figure 8). The size of the youngest age group (0 to 4 years) is The core labour force age group (25 to 54 years) will mainly impacted by the number of births and is a good also increase in size over the projection period, with the indicator of possible demand for elementary education. expansion expected to be greater between 2028 and In 2020, there were about 269,000 0 to 4 year olds in 2036. By 2020, all of the baby boomers had aged out the province, and the size of this group is expected to of the core labour force, but the core labour force will remain relatively stable through to 2025. Thereafter, Alberta Population Projections continue to increase due to migration (Figure 8).PDF name:Despite growth will accelerate, resulting in about 370,000 young Albertathe Populationgrowth in those Projections numbers, as a share of the total PDF name: 2021-2046children by 2046 (Figure 7). 2021-2046population, the core labour force cohort will decline Population Aged 0 to 14 years, Alberta from about 43% in 2020 to about 40% by 2046. Population Aged 15 to 64 years, Alberta

FIGURE 7: POPULATION AGED 0 TO 17 YEARS Alberta, 2001-2046 FIGURE 8: POPULATION AGED 15 TO 64 YEARS (thousands) Alberta, 2001-2046 1,000 (thousands) Estimated Projected 900 4500 800 4000 Estimated Projected 700 3500 600 0-4 3000 500 5-17 2500 400 2000 300 18-24 1500 200 25-54 1000 100 15-64 0 500 0

Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance The population aged 5 to 17 years also represents a significant portion of current school demand. The number of school-aged children will likely continue to The overall working-age population (15 to 64 years) rise throughout the projection period due to Alberta’s will also grow, expanding by around 35% over the relatively high fertility and migration rates. Between projection period. However, since the overall population chrt_07.pdf2020 and 2025, this age group is expected to increase will also expand by about 44%, that age group will make at an average annual rate of 1.0% (Figure 7), adding over up a declining share of the total population, decreasing 36,000 new school-aged children during that period. from about 68% in 2020 to 63% by 2046 as the baby By 2046, this age cohort is expected to number about chrt_08.pdfboomers leave the working ages. 929,000, up from almost 708,000 in 2020. Aging boomers accelerate growth of senior Steady share of young adults, declining share population of core working-ages The population aged 65 years and older is expected The young adult cohort (aged 18 to 24 years) is usually to increase both in number and population share associated with attending post-secondary institutions throughout the projection period. In 2020, almost or participating in the youth labour force. In 2020, the 611,000 Albertans were aged 65 years and older, share of the population for this cohort was about 9% accounting for about 14% of the population. The and is expected to be relatively stable throughout the number of seniors is expected to top one million by projection period. The young adult cohort is expected 2035 and exceed 1.2 million by 2046 (Figure 9). Under to shrink slightly between 2020 and 2021 as a smaller the medium scenario, about one in five Albertans would cohort moves into this age group. Between 2025 to

5 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2021–2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | July 2, 2021

P:\InDesign\_OSI_Publications\Demography_publications\Alberta Population Projection\2021\2021-2046- Population Projections\Source_documents\: PopProj 2021:P:\InDesign\_OSI_Publications\Demography_publications\Alberta Figure 7 Population Projection\2021\2021-2046- Population Projections\Source_documents\: PopProj 2021: Figure 8 #Classification: Protected A 2021-06-02: 3:48 PM

#Classification: Protected A 2021-06-02: 3:49 PM Alberta Population Projections PDF name: 2021-2046 Population Aged 65 and older, Alberta be 65 years or older by 2046. In 2020, there were almost 366,000 more children (aged 0 to 17 years) than FIGURE 9: POPULATION AGED 65 AND OLDER seniors. By 2046, this difference is expected to shrink to Alberta, 2001-2046 about 53,000. (thousands) 1400 Rapid growth of the oldest-old 1200 Estimated Projected In assessing demand for services such as health care, 1000 assisted living and seniors housing, it is especially important to look at the population 80 years of age 800 65+ and older. This age group is expected to more than 600 double as a share of the population, increasing 80+ from just over 3% in 2020 to almost 7% by 2046. 400 This trend represents an absolute increase of about 200 301,000 people who will be 80 years and older and a 0 percentage increase of around 215% (Figure 9).

Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

Regional Population Projections

Regional population growth is determined by the chrt_09.pdfOther regions have a long-standing and significant current age structure, natural increase and net gains or attraction for interprovincial migrants. Likewise, some losses through migration. The next section highlights CDs make considerable gains from the settlement the main characteristics of the 19 census divisions choices of immigrants, while others receive almost (CDs) in Alberta. none. Some regions, such as CD 16 (Wood Buffalo) tend to draw a significant number of interprovincial The current age structure is a major determinant of the migrants, yet tend to lose people to other parts of the number of births and deaths. A region with a greater province at the same time, leading to lower growth from proportion of older people will likely experience relatively migration than might be expected. more deaths, whereas a region with a large proportion of young adults will likely have more births. In addition, since In general, the largest centres capture most of the migration is an activity undertaken primarily by young migration to the province from international sources, adults, the age structure will impact a region’s migration while also gaining from migratory movements both patterns and vice versa. within Alberta and from other regions of Canada (Appendix Map 2). Older regions, with a greater share of seniors in the population, are more likely to experience very low or Most regions expected to see population negative natural increase leading to downward pressure growth on population growth (Appendix Map 1). The oldest With the exception of CD 4 (Hanna), CD 7 (Stettler) and regions of the province in 2020 were CD 4 (Hanna) and CD 13 (), all regions in Alberta are expected CD 13 (Whitecourt) with average ages of 42.7 and 42.2 to see positive growth over the projection period. years, respectively. These two CDs are projected to Although the population of CD 14 (Edson) is expected have some of the least growth from natural increase to grow, the increase is small (average annual growth of over the projection period. 0.12%) and the population is relatively stable (Figure 10). Migration is a key determinant of population growth CD 3 () and CD 15 (Banff) are also likely to for most regions. It is common for regional patterns of experience minimal growth over the projection period. migratory movements to be relatively consistent over By comparison, the Edmonton-Calgary Corridor (CDs time. For many years, some regions have seen their 6, 8 and 11) and CD 19 (Grande ) are projected to young people move to other regions of the province have the strongest growth (Appendix Map 3). (intraprovincial migration), for example, CD 17 (Slave P:\InDesign\_OSI_Publications\Demography_publications\Alberta Population Projection\2021\2021-2046- ), CD 19 () and CD 2 (). Population Projections\Source_documents\: PopProj 2021: Figure 9

#Classification: Protected A 2021-06-02: 3:50 PM

6 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2021–2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | July 2, 2021 Alberta Population Projections PDF name: 2021-2046 Figure 12: Average Annual Population Growth by CD, Medium, 2020-2046 receiving the most net migrants are expected to see FIGURE 10: AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH BY Albertathe Populationlargest gains Projections in their working-aged populations. PDF name: 2021-2046CD 6 (Calgary) takes the top spot, followed by CD 11 Census Divisions, 2020-2046 (Edmonton), CD 8 (Red Deer). and CD 2 (Lethbridge). (%) Percent change of 0 to 14 year olds, 2020-2046, medium scenario 2.0 Provincial Average = 1.4% FIGURE 11: PERCENT CHANGE OF 0 TO 14 YEAR OLDS 1.5 Census Divisions, 2020-2046

1.0 6-Calgary 8-Red Deer 0.5 11-Edmonton 1- 0.0 10-Camrose -0.5 5- 2-Lethbridge -1.0 17- 3-Pincher Creek Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance 9-Rocky Mtn House 18- chrt_10.pdf 12- Regional Age Structure 16-Wood Buffalo 13-Whitecourt Overall increase in children, but regional 14-Edson variation 15-Banff 7-Stettler There is considerable regional variation in the proportion 4-Hanna Alberta (32%) of 0 to 14 year olds. At the top end, 28% of CD 17’s Alberta Population Projections PDF name: (Slave Lake) population was under the age of 15, while -30% 0% 30% 60% at the bottom end of the spectrum, the proportion of 2021-2046 children in CD 15 (Banff) was 14% in 2020. The share PercentSources: change Statistics of Canada 15 to and 64 Alberta year Treasury olds, 2020-2046,Board and Finance medium scenario of children is projected to drop or remain fairly stable in most of the CDs, however this depends on the region. CD 16 (Wood Buffalo) is expected to show the greatest FIGURE 12: PERCENT CHANGE OF 15 TO 64 YEAR OLDS drop in the share of 0 to 14 year olds (3.5 percentage chrt_11.pdfCensus Divisions, 2020-2046 points), which is primarily due to population aging and the shrinking proportions of women of child-bearing 11-Edmonton age. CD 3 is expected to see the largest increase (2.0 6-Calgary percentage points), due to higher than average fertility 19-Grande Prairie in the region. CDs 17 and 15 will continue to have 8-Red Deer the highest and lowest population shares of children, 2-Lethbridge respectively, in 2046. 1-Medicine Hat 16-Wood Buffalo The absolute number of children will increase in 5-Drumheller most census divisions (Figure 11). Due to their large 10-Camrose populations, the largest absolute increases in the 17-Slave Lake number of children are expected in CD 8 (Red Deer), 3-Pincher Creek CD 6 (Calgary), and CD 11 (Edmonton). These three 12-Cold Lake census divisions, together with CD 19 (Grande Prairie), 9-Rocky Mtn House make up the four regions with the largest percent 18-Grande Cache growth of children over the projection period. 14-Edson 15-Banff Proportion of working-age population to shrink 7-Stettler in every region 13-Whitecourt 4-Hanna Alberta (35%) All but seven census divisions are projected to have increased populations in the working-ages (15 to 64 -30% 0% 30% 60% years) between 2020 and 2046 (Figure 12). Since P:\InDesign\_OSI_Publications\Demography_publications\AlbertaSources: Population Statistics Canada Projection\2021\2021-2046- and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance migrants are predominantly young adults, regions Population Projections\Source_documents\: PopProj 2021: Figure 10

#Classification: Protected A chrt_12.pdf 2021-06-02: 3:51 PM

7 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2021–2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | July 2, 2021 P:\InDesign\_OSI_Publications\Demography_publications\Alberta Population Projection\2021\2021-2046- Population Projections\Source_documents\: PopProj 2021: Figure 11

#Classification: Protected A 2021-06-02: 3:54 PM

P:\InDesign\_OSI_Publications\Demography_publications\Alberta Population Projection\2021\2021-2046- Population Projections\Source_documents\: PopProj 2021: Figure 12

#Classification: Protected A 2021-06-02: 3:54 PM In 2020, the regions with the highest share of the Focus on selected regions working-age population were CD 16 (Wood Buffalo), CD 15 (Banff), CD 6 (Calgary), CD 11 (Edmonton) and Recession in Alberta: around the province CD 19 (Grande Prairie); all had shares over the Alberta average of about 68%. In contrast, 58% of people in Although Alberta is coming out of a recession, CD 3 (Pincher Creek) were of working age. The share restrictions on travel continue to weigh on population of population aged 15 to 64 will decline in all census growth over the short term. While all regions of the divisions between 2020 and 2046. However, CD 16, province are expected to be impacted, particular effects CD 11 and CD 6 will continue to have the highest are expected in CD 6 (Calgary), CD 11 (Edmonton), CD 8 shares, above the provincial average of 63% (Figure 12). (Red Deer), CD 16 (Wood Buffalo) and CD 15 (Banff).

Regional differences in population aging Edmonton-Calgary Corridor: urbanization continues In 2020, 14% of Albertans were 65 years of age and older, and this number is expected to increase to 20% The Edmonton-Calgary Corridor consists of three CDs by 2046. The proportion of the population aged 65 and (6, 8 and 11) and includes the Census Metropolitan older varies regionally throughout the province due to Areas of Edmonton and Calgary, as well as the different age structures and migration flow patterns of Red Deer. Covering only 6% of the land , the (Figure 13). In 2020, CD 3 (Pincher Creek) and CD 4 Corridor is home to almost 77% of the population and (Hanna) had the highest proportion of seniors among the is the most urbanized area of the province. Projected CDs at 22% and 21%, respectively, while Wood Buffalo growth in this region will outpace the provincial average (CD 16) had the lowest share (4%). In 2046, it is expected (Appendix Map 3). By 2046, 80% of Albertans are that CD 4 (Hanna) will continue to have the highest expected to live in this region. The anticipated growth percentage of seniors at 29%, whereas CD 17 (Slave in the Edmonton-Calgary Corridor is supported by Lake) will have the smallest share with about 14% of the historical migration patterns within the province. As the population aged 65 years and over. most populous region, this area tends to attract most Alberta Population Projections of the migrants arriving from outside of the province. In PDF name: the past decade, 86% of immigrants and 77% of the 2021-2046 net migrants from other parts of Canada settled in this FIGURE 13: POPULATION AGED 65 AND OVER AS A region. In addition, these CDs tend to gain residents PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION through migration from other parts of the province. Census Divisions, 2020 and 2046 Alberta 14% Alberta 20% Wood Buffalo: growth slows (2020) (2046) 4-Hanna 19 CD 16 (Wood Buffalo) was hit hard by the 2015-2016 15-Banff 18 recession. Strong net outflows of interprovincial and intraprovincial migrants and NPRs caused this region’s 7-Stettler 17 16 population to shrink between 2014 and 2017 as the 13-Whitecourt economy adjusted to lower oil prices and a decline in oil 15 14-Edson sands investment. Additionally, a devastating wildfire in 14 9-Rocky Mtn House 2016 forced the largest evacuation in Alberta’s history 13 5-Drumheller and halted operations. Thereafter, this region 12 10-Camrose experienced modest economic improvements, with 11 1-Medicine Hat rising production and improved oil prices. However, the 10 18-Grande Cache pandemic-induced decline in oil demand and a collapse 9 in oil prices led to companies scaling back bitumen 3-Pincher Creek 8 production. CD 16 is expected to have net outflows of 12-Cold Lake 7 migrants between 2020 and 2024, and the population 2046 8-Red Deer 6 is forecast to contract for the period of 2020 to 2022. 6-Calgary 2020 5 Following a few years of net outflows, CD 16 is expected 2-Lethbridge 4 to reach positive levels of net migration once again. 11-Edmonton 3 Between 2026 and 2028, higher oil sands investment, 19-Grande Prairie 2 due to improving market access for Alberta crude and 16-Wood Buffalo 1 growing confidence, should result in a modest boost in migration to this region. Over the entire projection 0% 10% 20% 30% period, natural increase is expected to contribute over Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance 25% to CD 16’s growth. This is the second highest contribution among regions in the province, and well

8 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2021–2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | July 2, 2021

chrt_13.pdf

P:\InDesign\_OSI_Publications\Demography_publications\Alberta Population Projection\2021\2021-2046-Population Projections\Source_documents\: PopProj 2021: Figure 13

#Classification: Protected A 2021-06-29: 2:58 PM above the provincial level (Appendix Map 1). Due to its Mountain parks: migration supports growth youthful population, there are relatively fewer deaths and Throughout the pandemic, CD 15 (home to both Banff a significant number of births in CD 16 when compared and Jasper) has experienced a significant slowdown in with other regions. Overall, average annual growth for tourism. This was the result of restricted international CD 16 is projected at 1.0% between 2020 and 2046. travel and fewer interprovincial visitors due to COVID‑19. This economic slowdown in tourism also affected Grande Prairie: a service centre for Alberta and demand for temporary foreign workers (a sub-category of NPRs). As a result, this region is expected to see CD 19, which includes the city of Grande Prairie, has continued net outflows of migrants over the next couple experienced robust growth over the last decade. At of years. By 2023, international travel is expected to 1.6%, the region’s average annual growth (between resume, which should provide a boost to tourism, leading 2020 and 2046) is expected to remain well above to a rebound in migration. the provincial level (Appendix Map 3). This regional economy has a large natural resources component, Over the projection period, CD 15 is expected to have including oil and gas, forestry, and . The City negative growth from natural increase (-1.2%), due mainly of Grande Prairie is a service area for northwestern to low fertility (Appendix Map 1). Although there is a large Alberta and northeastern British Columbia and both number of young adults, they tend to leave the region areas have abundant reserves of oil and gas. While before they start families. However, net migration will resource activities may attract more male migrants, the support overall population growth of 0.20% annually service sector is expected to attract a more balanced (Appendix Map 3), offsetting the impacts of negative mix of people. Compared with CD 16 (Wood Buffalo), growth due to natural increase. for example, the sex ratio of CD 19 (Grande Prairie) is less skewed towards males, and the region is more For more information on the Population attractive to young adults of both sexes. As a result, Projections see: the population in CD 19 contains momentum for future growth. CD 19 was impacted by low oil prices in 2015-2016, and saw net outflows of migrants between Data for Alberta Population Projections. 2015 and 2017. This region is forecast to once again Includes estimated (1996‑2020) and projected have net outflows of migrants between 2020 and 2022. (2021‑2046) population of Alberta and its 19 Census However, because of its economic diversity and the Divisions by single year of age and sex as well as some up-tick in conventional drilling, CD 19 should see its summary statistics. migration levels recover more significantly than other oil dependent regions such as CD 12 and CD 16. In Population Projection Methodology and the short term, this region could also see benefits from Assumptions. strong demand in the agriculture and forestry sectors. Details the methodology and assumptions of the long‑term population projections. Lethbridge: growth potential CD 2, which includes the City of Lethbridge, is an Contact Jennifer Hansen at 78 0.427.8 811 economically diverse region with industries such as agriculture, government and manufacturing. This puts the region in a better position to cope with an economic recession when compared with some other regions of the province. CD 2 has become an increasingly attractive destination for migrants and their families, as well as for young adults due to its postsecondary institutions. Given its relatively young age structure and higher-than-average fertility, CD 2 has the potential for continued future growth. There has also been an uptick in renewable resource development, which should support growth in the short term.

9 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2021–2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | July 2, 2021 Appendix

MAP 1: POPULATION GROWTH DUE TO NATURAL INCREASE, 2020-2046, MEDIUM SCENARIO

Northwest

CD 16 25.4%

CD 17 37.7%

Fort

McM!urray

CD 19

S

23.1% a Slave s k Grande Lake a ! t

c a ! i Prairie

h

b

e

w m

u CD 12 a l

n o CD 18 15.6% Cold C Lake h 13.3% !

s

i

t

i r CD 13

B Grande Whitecourt ! -0.5% Ca!che

!Edson ! CD 14 Edmonton CD 10 2.8% CD 11 4.6% 13.6% !Camrose

CD 8 Rocky Mtn. 11.2% CD 7 House ! Stettler 1.4% Red Deer ! CD 9 ! 7.5%

Hanna Population growth (%) ! CD 6 CD 4 Drumhe!ller due to natural increase, 14.9% -4.6% Banff 2020-2046, medium scenario ! Calgary CD 5 CD 15 ! 5.2% -4.6% - 0.0% -1.2%

0.1% - 5.0% Medicine

5.1% - 10.0% CD 2 H!at 12.1% CD 1 10.1% - 15.0% !Lethbridge 3.3%

15.1% - 20.0% ! CD 3 Pincher 7.3% 20.1% - 37.7% Creek

United States of America Alberta = 13.6%

10 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2021–2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | July 2, 2021 MAP 2: POPULATION GROWTH DUE TO NET MIGRATION, 2020-2046, MEDIUM SCENARIO

CD 16 4.7%

CD 17 -19.2%

Fort

McM!urray

CD 19

S

27.7% a Slave s k Grande Lake a ! t

c a ! i Prairie

h

b

e

w m

u a l

CD 12 n o Cold

C CD 18 -2.2% Lake h -1.6% ! s

i

t

i r CD 13

B Grande Whitecourt ! -1.0% Ca!che

!Edson ! CD 14 Edmonton CD 10 0.4% CD 11 15.3% 36.6% !Camrose

CD 8 Rocky Mtn. 32.2% CD 7 House ! Stettler -5.1% Red Deer ! CD 9 ! 2.3%

Hanna Population growth (%) ! CD 6 CD 4 Drumhe!ller due to net migration, 36.7% -11.4% Ba!nff CD 5 2020-2046, medium scenario Calgary CD 15 ! 19.5% -19.2% - -10.0% 6.5%

-9.9% - -5.0% Medicine

-4.9% - 0.0% CD 2 H!at 22.0% CD 1 0.1% - 20.0% !Lethbridge 24.2%

20.1% - 30.0% ! CD 3 Pincher -1.3% 30.1% - 36.7% Creek

United States of America Alberta = 30.4%

11 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2021–2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | July 2, 2021 MAP 3: AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH (PERCENT), 2020-2046, MEDIUM SCENARIO Northwest Territories

CD 16 1.02%

CD 17 0.65%

Fort

McM!urray

CD 19

S

1.59% a Slave s k Grande Lake a ! t

c a ! i Prairie

h

b

e

w m

u CD 12 a l

n o CD 18 0.49% Cold C Lake h 0.43% !

s

i

t

i r CD 13

B Grande Whitecourt ! -0.06% Ca!che

!Edson CD 14 Edmonton ! CD 10 0.12% CD 11 0.70% 1.58% !Camrose

CD 8 CD 15 Rocky Mtn. CD 7 0.20% 1.40% House ! Stettler -0.15% Red Deer ! CD 9 ! 0.36%

Hanna Average Annual ! CD 6 CD 4 Drumhe!ller Population Growth (%), 1.61% -0.67% Banff 2020-2046, medium scenario ! Calgary CD 5 ! 0.85% -0.67% - -0.50%

-0.49% - 0.00% Medicine

0.01% - 0.50% CD 2 H!at 1.13% CD 1 0.51% - 1.00% !Lethbridge 0.94% 1.01% - 1.50% ! CD 3 Pincher 0.22% 1.51% - 1.61% Creek

United States of America Alberta = 1.41%

12 | Population Projects: Alberta and Census Divisions, 2021–2046 | Treasury Board and Finance | July 2, 2021