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RUSSIA MILITARY STRATEGY: IMPACTING 21ST CENTURY REFORM and GEOPOLITICS by TIMOTHY L

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RUSSIA MILITARY STRATEGY: IMPACTING 21ST CENTURY REFORM and GEOPOLITICS by TIMOTHY L HTTPS://COMMUNITY.APAN.ORG/WG/TRADOC-G2/FMSO/ Foreign Military Studies Office Volume 10 Issue #5 OEWATCH May 2020 FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT EURASIA 32 Chinese Military Hosts Video Conferences to Help Allies Combat 65 Iran: Khamenei on Power and Patience 3 COVID-19 and the Russian Spring Draft COVID-19 67 India Evacuates its Citizens from Iran 4 No Dock for the Kuznetsov? 34 China’s Deepening Diplomatic and Economic Engagement in 68 Iran Unveils Ghadir Submarine Upgrades 5 Strengthening Russian Influence in Crimea Afghanistan 6 Constructing Multifunctional Medical Centers to Combat 36 Japanese Self-Defense Forces: Integration, Does it Hurt? (Ittaika AFRICA COVID-19 Itai ka) 69 Al-Shabaab’s Infighting Over Funds 7 Less Transparency on Military Topics? 38 Vietnam Asserts Historical Claims in Maritime Dispute with China 70 Arms Spending in East Africa 8 Coastal Defense Missiles Will Be at Victory Parade 39 Insurgents Exploit Thailand’s Efforts against COVID-19 71 South Sudan’s Obstacles to Peace 9 The Russian Army’s Domestic Support for Civil Authorities 40 Indonesia’s Maritime Border Security Challenges 72 Terrorism and Conflict Interfere with Great Green Wall Progress 11 Russian View of Foreign Dependence on Space Capabilities 41 Bypassing the “Make in India” Initiative 73 Obstacles to African Union Involvement in Libya 12 Russian Topographic Maps and Cloud-Based Technology 42 Pakistan Moving into Sales of JF-17 Fighters 74 Amidst COVID-19 Pandemic, Neglecting the Neglected Tropical 13 Russia Continues to Upgrade its Northern Fleet Diseases 14 The Russian Army’s Smoke Screen Production And Training MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA 75 Mali Air Force Super Tucano Goes Down Over Sévare 16 New Arctic T-80BVM Tanks Get Workout 43 Chinese-Arab Cooperation in the Time of COVID-19 77 Chad’s President to Lead Military Operations against Boko Haram 17 The Utility of Russian-Serbian Relations to Moscow 45 China’s COVID-19 Diplomacy in the Middle East 78 Mozambican Jihadists Escalate Violence 19 Armenia to Acquire Radar System from India 47 COVID-19 and the Egyptian Military 79 Key Boko Haram Leader Killed in Joint Operation on Lake Chad 20 Uzbekistan and Tajikistan Continue Security Cooperation 49 Russia Sees Opportunity in COVID-19 to Isolate Iranian Forces in Islands Syria INDO-PACIFIC 51 Syria’s Idlib Continues to Challenge Turkish-Russian Relations LATIN AMERICA 21 China: Building Leadership Skills in NCOs for the Future 52 Syrian Conflict Increasingly Shaped by Expansive Use of UAVs 80 Venezuela Loses its Only Telecommunications Satellite Battlefield 54 Russia’s Presence in the Middle East and the Eastern 82 The Venezuelan Navy Loses a Coastguard Ship 23 China: The Changing Dynamics of Mobilization Under Mediterranean 83 Venezuela and Coronavirus Informatized Warfare 55 Turkey’s Electromagnetic Anti-Drone Weapon 84 Colombia and Coronavirus 24 PLA Adopts New Digital Camouflage for All Services 56 Turkey’s Energy Security and Dependency 85 What Happened to Daniel Ortega? 26 Why the PLA Adopted the Type 95 Light Support Weapon 57 The Impact of COVID-19 on SDF Operations and ISIS 86 China’s Image in LATAM Suffering? 28 China Launches Test-bed For High-Bandwidth 58 Hezbollah’s Standing in Lebanon Tarnished by Coronavirus 87 Ecuador Worst Hit by COVID-19? Communications Satellites Response 88 Gulf Cartel Distributes Food and Supplies to Residents of Ciudad 30 China: ‘Business as Usual’ as COVID-19 Diverts the World’s 59 COVID-19 Prompts Israel and Hamas to Explore Prisoner Swap Victoria, Tamaulipas Attention? 61 The Houthi Movement Says COVID-19 is US Biological Weapon 89 Mexico: Another Car Bomb Explosion Near National Guard in 63 Iran Announces Mass Production of COVID-19 Test Kits Celaya, Guanajuato APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION IS UNLIMITED The Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, is part of the US Army Training and Doctrine Command G-2, whose mission OEWATCH is to Understand, Describe, Deliver, and Foreign News & Perspectives Assess the conditions of the Operational of the Operational Environment Environment. For over 30 years, FMSO has conducted open source research Volume 10 | Issue 5 May | 2020 on foreign perspectives of defense and security issues, emphasizing those topics that are understudied or Regional Analysts and unconsidered. Expert Contributors Operational Environment Watch Eurasia Chuck Bartles provides translated selections with Ray Finch background from a diverse range Les Grau of foreign media that our analysts Greg Sarafian Matthew Stein and expert contributors believe will give security professionals an added Indo-Pacific Syed Fazl-e Haider dimension to their critical thinking Andrew Hartnett David Hunter-Chester about the Operational Environment. Cindy Hurst Matthew Stein Peter Wood The views expressed in each article are those of Jacob Zenn the author and do not represent the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department Middle East, North Africa David Dennis of Defense, or the US Government. Release of this Zachary Fesen information does not imply any commitment or intent Ihsan Gündüz on the part of the US Government to provide any Karen Kaya additional information on any topic presented herein. Jerrilee Plude The appearance of hyperlinks does not constitute Michael Rubin endorsement by the US Army of the referenced site Lucas Winter or the information, products, or services contained Africa Dodge Billingsley therein. Users should exercise caution in accessing Robert Feldman hyperlinks. Jacob Zenn The Operational Environment Watch is archived and available at: https://community.apan.org/wg/ Latin America Robert Bunker tradoc-g2/fmso/. Geoff Demarest Alma Keshavarz Stevie Lundell ON THE COVER: PLA Tank crew wearing Type 07 camouflage participate in the Tank Biathlon 2018 in Editor-in-Chief Tom Wilhelm Russia. Editor Karen Kaya Source: Mil.ru via Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:TankBiathlon2018-74.jpg, CC BY 4.0 Design Editor Thomas Tolare EURASIA COVID-19 and the Russian Spring Draft OE Watch Commentary: Given the uncertain situation with the coronavirus pandemic, there had been considerable speculation whether Russia’s Ministry of Defense (MoD) would still go forward with the Spring 2020 conscription campaign. However, as the first excerpt from the pro-government Izvestia points out, “on 30 March, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on conscription from 1 April to 15 July,” whereby 135,000 new recruits will be conscripted into military service for one year. The article quotes an expert who justifies the decision by asserting that “in the event of a real military threat, the army should be able to mobilize even in difficult Military document proving conscript service of the Russian army Source: CPI-RUS. epidemiological conditions.” He also goes on to point out Source: CPI-RUS via Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Military_ticket_Russian_army.jpeg, Public Domain that delaying the draft would force “the entire military training system… to be redrawn,” presumably by either extending current draftees or allowing units to become undermanned. To protect against the spread of this virus, this expert supports the decision for a “two-week quarantine for conscripts before being sent to the troops,” thus postponing the actual movement of new recruits to their units until 20 May, as well as the introduction of “special security measures… during the transportation of draftees to duty stations.” The coronavirus also caused additional downstream effects for those draft-age Russian males who will graduate from high school this spring. The virus has forced the delay of the Unified State Exam, which serves as the key document for graduating high school students to obtain admission to university education (and a deferment from conscript duty). The second excerpt from the liberal radio station, Echo Moscow, reports that “the Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov,” has directed “15 thousand students will be given the opportunity to pass the exam for admission to universities.” Provided the student does well on the exam, he will begin university studies in the fall instead of entering the draft pool. End OE Watch Commentary (Finch) “The draft cannot be canceled, because in the event of a real military threat, the army should be able to mobilize even in difficult epidemiological conditions.” Source: “Эксперт оценил решение оставить весенний призыв – 2020 (An expert considers the decision to hold the spring draft – 2020),” Izvestia, 1 April 2020. https://iz.ru/994384/2020-04-01/ekspert-otcenil-reshenie-ostavit-vesennii-prizyv-2020 Director of the Bureau of Military-Political Analysis, Alexander Mikhailov, called the decision proper not to cancel the spring conscription. Earlier, on 30 March, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on conscription from 1 April to 15 July. According to Mikhailov, the draft cannot be canceled, because in the event of a real military threat, the army should be able to mobilize even in difficult epidemiological conditions. “Secondly, 135 thousand new recruits should not drop out of the training system for young recruits, otherwise the entire military training system will have to be redrawn,” he said. The main difference between the spring 2020 draft is increased measures for the prevention of viral diseases and two-week quarantine for conscripts before being sent to the troops, Mikhailov noted. Special security measures will be applied during the transportation of draftees to duty stations. For this reason, the youngest replenishment will enter the troops only by 20 May, which in the current conditions is absolutely justified, the expert said…. Source: “Выпускников школ, которым уже есть 18 лет, не будут призывать в армию этой весной (Graduates of schools that are already 18 years old will not be drafted into the army this spring),” Echo Moscow, 9 April 2020. https://echo.msk.ru/news/2622019-echo.html Graduates of schools that are already 18 years old will not be drafted into the army this spring.
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