DOCSLIB.ORG

Dr. Vladimir Orlov Founder & Special Advisor PIR Center

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Dr. Vladimir Orlov Founder & Special Advisor PIR Center Lecture 4 Soviet Nuclear Nonproliferation History 1945 - 1991 Dr. Vladimir Orlov Founder & Special Advisor PIR Center MGIMO University Dual Degree M.A. in Nonproliferation Studies Moscow, 2017 First Nuclear Test JULY 16 Conducted by the U.S. 1945 as part of the Manhattan project. Given the code name “Trinity”. It marks the beginning of a nuclear era. Dr. Vladimir Orlov JULY 17 – AUGUST 2 "I casually mentioned to 1945 Stalin that we had a new weapon of unusual Potsdam destructive force." Harry Truman, "Memoirs, 1945" Conference Dr. Vladimir Orlov 1945 AUGUST 6 Hiroshima AUGUST 9 Nagasaki Dr. Vladimir Orlov Address made by the Soviet Representative JUNE 19 Andrey Gromyko to the UN Atomic Energy 1946 Commission “The Soviet delegation proposes that consideration be given to the question of <…> prohibiting the production and employment of weapons based on the use of atomic energy for the purpose of mass destruction.” Dr. Vladimir Orlov USSR tested its first nuclear bomb at AUGUST 29 Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site 1949 Soviet scientist and physicist Igor Kurchatov Dr. Vladimir Orlov International Atomic Energy Agency OCTOBER established 1957 “From the very beginning [of IAEA’s work] soviet scientists get a place of one of Deputy General Directors. Soviet Union participated in elaboration of the IAEA’s long term program of activities.” Vasily Emelianov Dr. Vladimir Orlov Soviet Union detonated the Tsar Bomba, a OCTOBER 30 hydrogen bomb at Novaya Zemlya test 1961 site “I would like to say that testing of new nuclear weapons goes well. By detonating a 50 million ton bomb we will test the device for a 100 ton bomb <…> if we detonate it even in the most remote location it may break the windows in our homes.” Nikita Khrushchev Dr. Vladimir Orlov Cuban Missile Crisis “The events were interesting OCTOBER and instructive. Two major countries kind of went head- 1962 to head with each other. It seemed that the military clash was inevitable. But we showed that if we are driven by desire to resolve conflicts through compromise, then finding such compromise is possible.” Nikita Khrushchev Dr. Vladimir Orlov PTBT AUGUST 3, 1963 Opened for signature SEPTEMBER 25, 1963 Ratified by the USSR OCTOBER 10, 1963 Came into effect Dr. Vladimir Orlov John Kennedy’s secret message to Nikita JULY Khruschev on a possible joint actions, 1963 including military ones, by US and USSR, to limit or prevent nuclear capability of China Declined by the USSR. Dr. Vladimir Orlov Soviet Memorandum to the Eighteen-Nation JANUARY 28 Committee on Disarmament 1964 Committee of 18 on “measures aimed at reducing of arms race and softening of international tensions” US reaction: skeptical (because of NATO Nuclear Forces issue). Dr. Vladimir Orlov India proposes “integrated approach” JANUARY 28 towards nonproliferation, 1964 including disarmament and security assurances Resolution adopted. US, USSR: against any “linkages”, “packages”, or pre- conditions to the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Dr. Vladimir Orlov The Roswell Gilpatric Committee (Committee JANUARY 21 on Nuclear Proliferation) secret 1965 Report to President Johnson • US should recognize importance of working jointly with the USSR on proliferation prevention and regional nonproliferation issues, particularly in the Middle East; • It would be hard to persuade other nations to abstain from developing nuclear weapons if US, USSR do not stop their arms race. Dr. Vladimir Orlov Confidential US-Soviet talks on the nuclear SEPTEMBER nonproliferation treaty start in New York 1966 Gromyko and Rusk generally come to an agreement on the issue of “transfer” of nuclear weapons and on “groups/blocks of states”. Also agreed that existing measures on nuclear arms within the military blocks, including nuclear planning, will not be banned by the treaty. Dr. Vladimir Orlov Gromyko is under instructions to speed- SEPTEMBER up talks with Americans to prevent 1966 further proliferation Soviet MFA’s memo to the CPSU Central Committee warns that, in the absence of such a treaty “India, Canada, Italy, Japan, Belgium, Sweden, the Netherlands, Israel, Czechoslovakia, and the FRG would launch production of nuclear weapons soon.” Dr. Vladimir Orlov Consensus on major principles of the future nuclear SEPTEMBER - nonproliferation JUNE regime among Soviet key players 1966 Prevention of further - nuclear proliferation in the world is considered as 1968 central task to address vital national interests of the USSR. Dr. Vladimir Orlov Gromyko meets Johnson in the White House OCTOBER 10 The Roshin-Rusk 1967 working group intensifies its efforts to find compromise on Art.1. NOVEMBER 10 Soviet leadership approves Gromyko’s position to accept US formula on “… to any recipient whatsoever” as it prevents any case of potential transfers, to third countries or blocks. Dr. Vladimir Orlov NPT JULY 1, 1968 Opened for signature NOVEMBER 24, 1969 Ratified by the USSR MARCH 5, 1970 Came into effect Dr. Vladimir Orlov Seabed Arms Control Treaty signed FEBRUARY 11 Treaty sought to 1971 prevent the introduction of international conflict and nuclear weapons on the ocean floor beyond 12-mile costal zone. Dr. Vladimir Orlov SALT I MAY 26, 1972 Signed by U.S. and USSR OCTOBER 3, 1972 Entered into force Dr. Vladimir Orlov ABMT MAY 26, 1972 Signed by US and USSR OCTOBER 3, 1972 Ratified by the USSR OCTOBER 3, 1972 Came into effect Dr. Vladimir Orlov Nuclear Suppliers Group established in MAY 26 London NSG is a group of nuclear 1974 supplier countries that seeks to contribute to the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons through the implementation of two sets of Guidelines for nuclear exports. Dr. Vladimir Orlov The NPT Review Conference held in MAY 5 - 30 Geneva This was the first of the Review 1975 Conferences, to be held every 5 years, as stipulated by the treaty. The conference adopted a Final Declaration by consensus which set the precedent for future Review Conferences to produce documents that detail initiatives to further the application of the Treaty. Dr. Vladimir Orlov Soviet Union Declined to Support Libya’s Nuclear Ambitions “During the second half of the 1970s 1970s colonel Muammar Gaddafi sent a delegation to Moscow with a secret mission to get the USSR to assist in the development of the Libyan nuclear program.” Amb. Roland Timerbaev Muammar Gaddafi’s visit to Moscow in 1976. Dr. Vladimir Orlov OSADCHIYEV KOZLOV S M I R N O V G R E C H K O 1970s U S T I N O V DETINOV The Big Five created A G KORNIENKO N R D O R M O Y MITYAYEV (IVANOV) MITYAYEV P K O O V Dr. Vladimir Orlov SALT II JUNE 18, 1979 Signed by U.S. and USSR NEVER Entered into force Dr. Vladimir Orlov The NPT Review AUGUST 11 - Conference held in SEPTEMBER 7 Geneva The Second NPT Review 1980 Conference. The Conference was unable to agree on a Final Declaration. The most intense debate was again on the implementation of Article VI. Dr. Vladimir Orlov South Korean Boeing shot down by the SEPTEMBER 1 USSR in the Far East 1983 The incident was one of the most tense moments of the Cold War and resulted in an escalation of anti- Soviet sentiment. Dr. Vladimir Orlov The NPT Review AUGUST 27 - Conference held in SEPTEMBER 21 Geneva The Final Declaration was 1985 strongly supportive of the Treaty, although it was critical of its implementation in some areas, particularly those relating to the cessation of the nuclear-arms race and nuclear disarmament. Dr. Vladimir Orlov Reykjavík Summit OCTOBER 11 - 12 “I thought that we could not let the negotiation become a 1986 rubber stamp for slackness or even the nuclear arms race that carries on. That is why I invited the President of the US to meet in order to advance the negotiations and unlock the stalemate.” M. Gorbachev Dr. Vladimir Orlov INF DECEMBER 8, 1987 Signed by US and USSR 1988 Ratified by the USSR JUNE 1, 1988 Came into effect Dr. Vladimir Orlov The NPT Review AUGUST 20 – Conference held in SEPTEMBER 7 Geneva 1990 The Fourth NPT Review Conference. The Conference was unable to adopt a Final Declaration. Dr. Vladimir Orlov Dissolution of the USSR DECEMBER 25 Nuclear button passed from the Soviet 1990 President Gorbachev to Russian President Yeltsin. Dr. Vladimir Orlov Dr. Vladimir Orlov @orlov_pircenter [email protected].
Load more

Recommended publications
  • U.S. Department of State Ejournal 15 (February 2010)
    The Bureau of International Information Programs of the U.S. Department of State publishes a monthly electronic journal under the eJournal USA logo. These journals U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE / FEBRuaRY 2010 examine major issues facing the United States and the VOLUME 15 / NUMBER 2 international community, as well as U.S. society, values, http://www.america.gov/publications/ejournalusa.html thought, and institutions. International Information Programs: One new journal is published monthly in English and is Coordinator Daniel Sreebny followed by versions in French, Portuguese, Russian, and Executive Editor Jonathan Margolis Spanish. Selected editions also appear in Arabic, Chinese, Creative Director Michael Jay Friedman and Persian. Each journal is catalogued by volume and number. Editor-in-Chief Richard W. Huckaby Managing Editor Bruce Odessey The opinions expressed in the journals do not necessarily Production Manager/Web Producer Janine Perry reflect the views or policies of the U.S. government. The Graphic Designer Sylvia Scott U.S. Department of State assumes no responsibility for the content and continued accessibility of Internet sites Copy Editor Rosalie Targonski to which the journals link; such responsibility resides Photo Editor Maggie Sliker solely with the publishers of those sites. Journal articles, Cover Designer Diane Woolverton photographs, and illustrations may be reproduced and Graph Designers Vincent Hughes translated outside the United States unless they carry Reference Specialist Martin Manning explicit copyright restrictions, in which case permission must be sought from the copyright holders noted in the journal. Front Cover: © Getty Images The Bureau of International Information Programs maintains current and back issues in several electronic formats at http://www.america.gov/publications/ejournalusa.
    [Show full text]
  • A National Pragmatic Safety Limit for Nuclear Weapon Quantities Joshua Pearce, David Denkenberger
    A National Pragmatic Safety Limit for Nuclear Weapon Quantities Joshua Pearce, David Denkenberger To cite this version: Joshua Pearce, David Denkenberger. A National Pragmatic Safety Limit for Nuclear Weapon Quan- tities. Drug Safety, Springer Verlag, 2018, 4 (2), pp.25. 10.3390/safety4020025. hal-02111370 HAL Id: hal-02111370 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02111370 Submitted on 26 Apr 2019 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution| 4.0 International License safety Article A National Pragmatic Safety Limit for Nuclear Weapon Quantities Joshua M. Pearce 1,2,3,* ID and David C. Denkenberger 4,5 1 Department of Electronics and Nanoengineering, School of Electrical Engineering, Aalto University, FI-00076 Espoo, Finland 2 Department of Materials Science & Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI 49931-1295, USA 3 Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI 49931-1295, USA 4 Tennessee State University, 3500 John A Merritt Boulevard Nashville, Nashville, TN 37209, USA; [email protected] 5 Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED), 23532 Calabasas Road, Suite A, Calabasas, CA 91302, USA * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: 906-487-1466 Received: 15 February 2018; Accepted: 6 June 2018; Published: 14 June 2018 Abstract: This study determines the nuclear pragmatic limit where the direct physical negative consequences of nuclear weapons use are counter to national interests, by assuming all unknowns are conservatively optimistic.
    [Show full text]
  • Suomalaisian__K__Kulmia Netti.Pdf
    Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu Strategian laitos Sivonen (toim.) Sivonen Suomalaisia näkökulmia Suomalaisia näkökulmia strategian tutkimukseen strategian tutkimukseen Strategian tutkimus on osa sotatieteellistä, mutta myös kansainvälisen Toimittanut: Pekka Sivonen strate politiikan tutkimuksen tiedeyhteisöä. Strategian tutkimuksen ja Suomalaisia näkökulmia opetuksen ainoa yliopistollinen laitos maassamme on puolustusvoimiin Julkaisusarja 1 | Strategian tutkimuksia No 33 kuuluvan Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulun Strategian laitos. Vuonna 2015 se yhdistetään Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulun Taktiikan ja Sota- gi historian laitosten kanssa Sotataidon laitokseksi, jonka puitteissa an tutkimukseen strategia jatkaa itsenäisenä tieteenalana ja oppiaineena. Käsillä oleva kokoomateos on tarkoitettu strategian alan perus- oppikirjaksi, mutta samalla se on suunnattu myös yleisesti kan- sainvälisestä turvallisuudesta ja sen tutkimuksesta kiinnostuneelle lukijakunnalle. Teos esittelee sekä perinteisistä lähtökohdista nousevia että uudempiin virtauksiin kiinnittyviä lähestymistapoja strategian tutkimukseen. Teoksen alkupuolella painottuvat tutkimuksen teoreettis-metodologiset kysymykset, jälkipuolella puolestaan tutkimuksen empiiriset kohdealueet. Julkaisusarja 1 | No 33, 2013 Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu Tel. +358 299 530632 ISBN 978-951-25-2495-2 Strategian laitos Fax. +358 299 530634 ISBN 978-951-25-2496-9 (PDF) PL 266, 00171 Helsinki strategianlaitos@mil.fi ISSN 1236-4959 Suomi, Finland www.mpkk.fi MAANPUOLUSTUSKORKEAKOULU STRATEGIAN LAITOS JULKAISUSARJA 1: STRATEGIAN TUTKIMUKSIA
    [Show full text]
  • 6 Supplementary References
    6 6 SUPPLEMENTARY REFERENCES 6 SUPPLEMENTARY REFERENCES 1203 6.1 GENERAL ENCYCLOPEDIAS Cosmology glossary. Western Washington Univ. Planetarium, Bellingham, WA; http://www.wwu.edu/depts/skywise/a101_cosmologyglossary.html. Bilder-Konversationslexikon. 4 vols., Brockhaus, Leipzig (1834). CXC Glossary of astrophysical terms. Chandra X-ray Center (CXC), operated Brockhaus Enzyklopädie. 20 vols., Brockhaus, Wiesbaden (1966–1974). for NASA by Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, Brockhaus-Konversationslexikon. 16 vols., Brockhaus, Leipzig (1892–1897). MA; http://chandra.harvard.edu/resources/glossaryA.html. Chambers’s encyclopaedia (ed. by M.D. LAW). 15 vols., International Learn- Dictionnaire des sciences naturelles (ed. by F.G. CUVIER). Levrault, Stras- ing Systems Corporation Ltd., London (1963). bourg (1816–1826). Columbia encyclopedia. Columbia University Press, New York (6th edn., Dictionary of medieval Latin from British sources (ed. by R.E. LATHAM and 2001–2005); http://www.bartleby.com/65/. D.R. HOWLETT). Oxford University Press, London; vol. 1 (1975) to vol. 6 Collier’s encyclopedia. 24 vols., Macmillan Education Co, New York (1987). (2003). Der Große Herder. 13 vols., Herder, Freiburg (1932–1935). Dictionary of mining, mineral, and related terms [compiled and edited by the Encyclopaedia Britannica. 29 vols. (11th edn., 1911). LoveToKnow™ free U.S. Bureau of Mines, U.S. Dept. of the Interior]. Am. Geol. Inst., Alex- online Encyclopedia; http://www.1911encyclopedia.org/. andria, VA (1997); http://www.maden.hacettepe.edu.tr/dmmrt/index.html. Encyclopaedia Britannica. 24 vols. (1875–1889), 24 vols. (1929), 24 vols. Dictionary of SDI (ed. by H. WALDMAN). Scholarly Resources Imprint, Wil- (1959); 30 vols. (1974–1984); 32 vols. (1985–2002) mington, DE (1988).
    [Show full text]
  • The Cuban Missile Crisis ‘Within the Past Week Unmistakable Evidence Has Established the Fact That a Series of Offensive Missile Sites Is Now in Preparation on [Cuba]
    CHAPTER 4 THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS ‘Within the past week unmistakable evidence has established the fact that a series of offensive missile sites is now in preparation on [Cuba]. The purposes of these bases can be none other than to provide a nuclear strike capacity against the Western hemisphere … It shall be the policy of this nation to regard any nuclear missile launched from Cuba against any nation in the Western hemisphere as an attack by the Soviet Union on the United States, requiring a full retaliatory response upon the Soviet Union.’ PRESIDENT JOHN F. KENNEDY, 22 OCTOBER 19621 PAGES INtroDuctioN On 1 January 1959, left-wing The Cuban Missile Crisis was rebels under the leadership of an escalation in the tensions Fidel Castro seized control of between the two superpowers, Cuba. As Castro’s ideology and which one historian called the policies veered towards socialism, ‘most dangerous crisis of the Cold Castro drew the ire of the United War.’ 2 Only by standing on theSAMPLE States. Embargo, invasion and edge of the abyss could the USA assassination attempts followed. and USSR see that their rivalry Castro was forced to seek had taken humanity to the brink economic and military security of extinction. A period of détente from another world power: the followed, which saw greater Soviet Union. Soviet Premier communication between the two Khrushchev decided to install superpowers, and a tentative nuclear missiles on Cuba to step towards placing limits on the intimidate the United States. This most dangerous weapon mankind was the catalyst for the Cuban has ever devised.
    [Show full text]
  • Download Poster As PDF for Printing
    Novaya Zemlya, Russia Nuclear weapons test site From 1954 to 1990, the islands of Novaya Zemlya were used by the Soviets to conduct atmospheric and underground nu- clear tests. Decommissioned nuclear weapons and nuclear submarines were also scuttled around the islands, turning the entire region into an environmental disaster zone. History In July 1954, the two islands of Novaya Zemlya (“New Land”) on the Russian Arctic coast were designated a nuclear weapons test site. The indigenous Nenets population was forcibly resettled and the islands were divided into different testing zones. Between 1955 and 1990, Novaya Zemlya was the site of 130 nucle- 1 ar detonations , including the “Tsar Bomba,” the big- The indigenous population of the region around Novaya gest nuclear device ever detonated, with 50 megatons Zemlya received even higher radiation doses. Most no- of TNT equivalent, almost 4,000 times more powerful tably affected by radiation exposure were the semi-no- than the Hiroshima bomb. The “Tsar Bomba” detona- madic Sami people of the Arctic region and the former tion caused severe destruction of the island within a inhabitants of Novaya Zemlya, the Nenets people. The radius of about 100 km and spread nuclear fallout all Vepsians, Karelians and Komi people, living along the over the Northern Hemisphere. Northern Russian coast, however, were also affected. In addition, the practice of dumping nuclear waste Radioactively contaminated lichen caused high stron- around the islands contributed greatly to the current tium levels in reindeer, which are a mainstay of the environmental catastrophe around Novaya Zemlya. To- local diet.2,5 As was the case with other indigenous populations affected by fallout and radioactive conta- Between 1955 and 1990, Novaya Zemlya was the site of 130 nuclear detonations, including the “Tsar Bomba,” the biggest nu- gether with fallout from nuclear weapons testing and clear device ever detonated, with 50 megatons of TNT equivalent, almost 4,000 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.
    [Show full text]
  • Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Icbm A
    Karol Kościelniak1 INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILE ICBM A SYMBOL OF “COLD WAR”? Keywords: Cold War, nuclear weapon, ICBM-Inter Continental Ballistic Missile ABSTRACT: World War II marked the beginning of the forty-fi ve years long period of tense peace, described as the Cold War. Two superpowers that emerged from World War II started to compete for hegemony over the world, representing two diametrically diff erent political and economic systems. In any other historical period, such situation would lead to an inevitable great war, but aft er 1945 the competition was threatened by the possibility of using nuclear weapon whose capability of destruction was so enormous that neither of parties ventured direct confrontation. World War II contributed to scientifi c advancement that played a crucial role in the military progress of these states. Th e development of technologies assisting nuclear weapon resulted in a revolutionary change in military capability provided by the parties of the confl ict. Rocket projectiles were the symbol of the 20th century, due to the fact that they carried humans into space, but also because they carried deadly weapon capable of killing hundreds thousands people. Th is combination of nuclear weapon with medium-range and intercontinental missiles caused that the world had to face permanent threat. Rocket projectiles became the weapon of the 20th century, and they under- went considerable development aft er World War II. Rocket projectiles are designed to destroy aircraft , vessels, combat vehicles, various permanent ground objects, as well as for fi ghting the opponent’s missiles. Rocket projectiles can be fi red from permanent overground and underground launchers, aircraft , surface and submarine vessels, launchers mounted on 1 Karol Kościelniak, Institute of History, Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań; [email protected].
    [Show full text]
  • Atmospheric Nuclear Weapons Testing
    Battlefi eld of the Cold War The Nevada Test Site Volume I Atmospheric Nuclear Weapons Testing 1951 - 1963 United States Department of Energy Of related interest: Origins of the Nevada Test Site by Terrence R. Fehner and F. G. Gosling The Manhattan Project: Making the Atomic Bomb * by F. G. Gosling The United States Department of Energy: A Summary History, 1977 – 1994 * by Terrence R. Fehner and Jack M. Holl * Copies available from the U.S. Department of Energy 1000 Independence Ave. S.W., Washington, DC 20585 Attention: Offi ce of History and Heritage Resources Telephone: 301-903-5431 DOE/MA-0003 Terrence R. Fehner & F. G. Gosling Offi ce of History and Heritage Resources Executive Secretariat Offi ce of Management Department of Energy September 2006 Battlefi eld of the Cold War The Nevada Test Site Volume I Atmospheric Nuclear Weapons Testing 1951-1963 Volume II Underground Nuclear Weapons Testing 1957-1992 (projected) These volumes are a joint project of the Offi ce of History and Heritage Resources and the National Nuclear Security Administration. Acknowledgements Atmospheric Nuclear Weapons Testing, Volume I of Battlefi eld of the Cold War: The Nevada Test Site, was written in conjunction with the opening of the Atomic Testing Museum in Las Vegas, Nevada. The museum with its state-of-the-art facility is the culmination of a unique cooperative effort among cross-governmental, community, and private sector partners. The initial impetus was provided by the Nevada Test Site Historical Foundation, a group primarily consisting of former U.S. Department of Energy and Nevada Test Site federal and contractor employees.
    [Show full text]
  • 2 Los Alamos National Laboratory During the Cold War, in the 1950S and ’60S, the Fear of Nuclear War Drove Thousands of U.S
    2 Los Alamos National Laboratory During the Cold War, in the 1950s and ’60s, the fear of nuclear war drove thousands of U.S. families to provide themselves with costly bomb shelters (also called fallout shelters), either converting their basements or installing prefabricated shelters several feet underground in their backyards. The shelters were stocked with essential supplies, and even some amenities, against the possibility of the families’ having to shelter for many days or weeks. (Photo: Open Source) RETHINKING THE UNTHINKABLE The Cold War began in 1945 with the use of nuclear weapons to end World War II and officially ended in December 1989 with a joint declaration in Malta by Presidents George H. W. Bush and Mikhail Gorbachev. In retrospect, excepting the regional wars in places like Korea and Vietnam, this 44-year period was remarkably stable. While many factors contributed to this stability, the contribution of nuclear weapons is undeniable. Nowhere is this stability more obvious than in Europe. During the 3.5 centuries before 1945, a major war had erupted in Europe every 11.9 years, and each lasted an average of 6.6 years. As the weapons for conventional war improved, each new war was more vicious and cost more in human lives than the previous one. Yet for over 40 years following World War II, opposing U.S. and Soviet forces were poised for war in Europe but remained fixed in place. Why? Amassing adequate conventional forces in Western Europe to counter Soviet forces had been politically, economically, and geographically impossible. The peak size of the U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Russia's New Nuclear Weapon Delivery Systems
    NOVEMBER 2019 RUSSIA’S NEW NUCLEAR WEAPON DELIVERY SYSTEMS An Open-Source Technical Review Jill Hruby Sam Nunn Distinguished Fellow About the Nuclear Threat Initiative The Nuclear Threat Initiative works to protect our lives, environment, and quality of life now and for future generations. We work to prevent catastrophic attacks with weapons of mass destruction and disruption (WMDD)—nuclear, biological, radiological, chemical, and cyber. RUSSIA’S NEW NUCLEAR WEAPON DELIVERY SYSTEMS An Open-Source Technical Review Jill Hruby Sam Nunn Distinguished Fellow Copyright © 2019 Nuclear Threat Initiative This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of the NTI Board of Directors or the institutions with which they are associated. CONTENTS FOREWORD ................................................................... 5 NOTE FROM THE AUTHOR ........................................................ 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................... 8 ICBM: Sarmat . 9 Hypersonic Delivery Systems: Kinzhal, Avangard, and Tsirkon . 9 New Advanced Strategic Weapon Delivery Capabilities: Poseidon and Burevestnik . 10 INTRODUCTION ............................................................... 12 INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILE ............................................ 14 Sarmat Multiple-Warhead Heavy ICBM . 14 HYPERSONIC DELIVERY SYSTEMS ................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Bigger's Not Always Better
    Bigger’s Not Always Better This may come as a surprise, but bigger yields are not always better. Nuclear weapons were generally designed not to be as powerful as possible—but to be as precise as possible. For example, the Department of Defense (DoD) typically tasked Los Alamos to design and build nuclear weapons that produced the specific yield required to destroy one or several types of specific targets. Too little yield and the weapon would fail to destroy the target; too much and the blast would cause unanticipated, unintended, and/or undesirable consequences. The weapon should, for example, have a yield whose subsequent effects would destroy the enemy’s missile base but not harm the nearby town. From the U.S. perspective, the goal was The largest human-made explosion in history was the Soviet Union’s detonation (October 30, 1961) of its 50-megaton Tsar Bomba (the “King of Bombs”), the most to eliminate an adversary’s ability to fight, not powerful nuclear weapon ever designed (about 10 times the combined power wipe them out. So the yield of U.S. nuclear of all the conventional explosives used in World War II). It had a designed yield weapons needed to be like Baby Bear’s of 100 megatons but was tested at half that yield, in part so that the plane that dropped it would have time to fly to safety. Due to its size and yield the Tsar made porridge: not too cold and not too hot, but a huge, international political and military splash, but in reality it was impractical just right.
    [Show full text]
  • SECURITY INDEX No
    INTERNATIONAL EDITION SECURITY INDEX No. 2 (82), SUMMER/FALL 2007 The results of PIR Center's work are of particular interest for the Sergei Lavrov A Russian country's foreign policy agencies, given the relapses into a policy of the Journal on unilateral use of force that have caused small countries to feel that International security is scarce and pushed large countries towards increasing Security weapons procurement. The continuing stagnation in the area of disarmament, though no fault of Russia, along with the increasing potential for conflict in the world as a whole are causes for concern. SECURITYSECURITY Russia has inherited the tradition of fighting for disarmament. Gennady Evstafiev The decrease in its activities in this area has ended. There is every reason to expect that Russia will present proposals aimed, if not at stopping, then at least at slowing the most dangerous aspirations of those who believe that there are neither commonsensical nor other limits to their ambitions. IN EX INNo. 2 (82), EX SinoRussian relations are not only more complicated, but also more Dmitri Trenin DDPublisher: PIR Center — Center for Policy Studies (Russia) Summer/Fall 2007 contradictory than they appear in the speeches of the Russian president and the Chinese Communist Party chairman. Russia's leaders, whatever they say publicly and however strongly they suspect the United States of trying to drive a wedge into "model" SinoRussian relations, will not Gennady Evstafiev DISARMAMENT RETURNS accept a strategic bloc with China. Demographic threats could be woven into the discourse of the March Graeme P. Herd Andrei Frolov IRAN'S DELIVERY SYSTEMS CAPABILITIES 2008 presidential campaign.
    [Show full text]