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Suomalaisian__K__Kulmia Netti.Pdf Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu Strategian laitos Sivonen (toim.) Sivonen Suomalaisia näkökulmia Suomalaisia näkökulmia strategian tutkimukseen strategian tutkimukseen Strategian tutkimus on osa sotatieteellistä, mutta myös kansainvälisen Toimittanut: Pekka Sivonen strate politiikan tutkimuksen tiedeyhteisöä. Strategian tutkimuksen ja Suomalaisia näkökulmia opetuksen ainoa yliopistollinen laitos maassamme on puolustusvoimiin Julkaisusarja 1 | Strategian tutkimuksia No 33 kuuluvan Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulun Strategian laitos. Vuonna 2015 se yhdistetään Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulun Taktiikan ja Sota- gi historian laitosten kanssa Sotataidon laitokseksi, jonka puitteissa an tutkimukseen strategia jatkaa itsenäisenä tieteenalana ja oppiaineena. Käsillä oleva kokoomateos on tarkoitettu strategian alan perus- oppikirjaksi, mutta samalla se on suunnattu myös yleisesti kan- sainvälisestä turvallisuudesta ja sen tutkimuksesta kiinnostuneelle lukijakunnalle. Teos esittelee sekä perinteisistä lähtökohdista nousevia että uudempiin virtauksiin kiinnittyviä lähestymistapoja strategian tutkimukseen. Teoksen alkupuolella painottuvat tutkimuksen teoreettis-metodologiset kysymykset, jälkipuolella puolestaan tutkimuksen empiiriset kohdealueet. Julkaisusarja 1 | No 33, 2013 Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu Tel. +358 299 530632 ISBN 978-951-25-2495-2 Strategian laitos Fax. +358 299 530634 ISBN 978-951-25-2496-9 (PDF) PL 266, 00171 Helsinki strategianlaitos@mil.fi ISSN 1236-4959 Suomi, Finland www.mpkk.fi MAANPUOLUSTUSKORKEAKOULU STRATEGIAN LAITOS JULKAISUSARJA 1: STRATEGIAN TUTKIMUKSIA No 33 NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF STRATEGIC AND DEFENCE STUDIES SERIES 1: STRATEGIC RESEARCH No 33 SUOMALAISIA NÄKÖKULMIA STRATEGIAN TUTKIMUKSEEN PEKKA SIVONEN (toim.) MAANPUOLUSTUSKORKEAKOULU Strategian laitos HELSINKI 2013 ii Pekka Sivonen (toim.): Suomalaisia näkökulmia strategian tutkimukseen Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu, Strategian laitos Julkaisusarja 1: Strategian tutkimuksia No 33 National Defence University, Department of Strategic and Defence Studies Series 1: Strategic Research No 33 Uusimmat julkaisut pdf-muodossa http://www.mpkk.fi/fi/tutkimus-opetus/julkaisut/stratl/ Kannen suunnittelu ja toteutus: Teemu Liiri Taitto: Torsti Sirén ISBN 978-951-25-2495-2 ISBN 978-951-25-2496-9 (PDF) ISSN 1236-4959 Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu – National Defence University Strategian laitos – Department of Strategic and Defence Studies Juvenes Print Tampere 2013 iii SISÄLLYS ESIPUHE 1 OSA I STRATEGIAN TUTKIMUKSEN TEORIAA JA 3 METODOLOGIAA 1 REALISMI JA STRATEGIAN TUTKIMUS 5 1.1. Realismin pessimistinen näkemys kansainvälisen politiikan Luonteesta 6 1.2. Realismin koulukunnista ja metodologisista lähtökohdista 17 1.3. Realismi paradigmana 26 2 SOTILASSTRATEGIAN TUTKIMUKSEN PERUSTEITA 39 2.1. Mitä tutkitaan 40 2.2. Sotilasstrategian käytäntö ja logiikka 43 2.3. Tieteenfilosofiaa sotilasstrategian kehittämiseksi 47 2.4. Minne siis riennät sinä, sotilasstrategia? 52 3 SOTA TUTKIMUKSEN KOHTEENA 59 3.1. Sodan määritelmistä 61 3.2. Filosofisia lähestymistapoja sotaan 65 3.3. Sodan tutkimuksen virtauksia 67 3.3.1. Sota ja erilaisia episteemisiä ja teoreettisia lähestymistapoja 71 3.3.2. Rationalistiset teoriat 72 3.3.3. Konstitutiiviset teoriat sodan tutkimuksessa 73 3.3.4. Sodan tutkimuksen teemoja ja keskustelukysymyksiä 75 3.4. Johtopäätöksiä 78 4 KONSTRUKTIVISMI 91 4.1. Konstruktivismi osana suomalaista strategian tutkimusta 92 4.1.1. Sodan kuva ja asevoimat konstruoituna kokonaisuutena 92 4.1.2. Identiteetit puolustuspolitiikan rakentajina 94 4.1.3. Uhkakuvilla rakennettu politiikka ja politiikalla rakennetut uhkakuvat 97 4.1.4. Konstruktivismin kritiikki 99 4.2. Konstruktivismin avaamat näkymät suomalaiseen strategian tutkimukseen tulevaisuudessa 99 4.3. Turvallistamisteoria ja Kööpenhaminan koulukunta 100 5 JÄLKISTRUKTURALISTINEN TURVALLISUUSTUTKIMUS - MAHDOTON KÄSITE VAI KÄSITTEELLINEN MAHDOLLISUUS 105 5.1. Jälkistrukturalistinen orientaatio turvallisuustutkimuksen kentässä 107 5.2. Kolme tulokulmaa jälkistrukturalismiin 110 5.3. Jälkistrukturalistisia ongelmanasetteluja strategian alalla 112 iv 5.3.1. ”Turvallisuuspolitiikan perusteet ovat epävakaita ja horjuvia” 112 5.3.2. ”Tieteellinen tutkimus ei ole ylivertainen tapa selittää turvallisuuspolitiikkaa” 113 5.3.3. ”Strategian tutkimus marginalisoi suuren osan ihmiskuntaa” 114 5.3.4. ”Strategian klassikoita luetaan yksiulotteisesti” 116 5.3.5. ”Strategian maantiede on kiistanalaista” 117 5.4. Mahdoton käsite vai käsitteellinen mahdollisuus? 119 6 TULEVAN ENNAKOINTI STRATEGIAN TUTKIMUKSEN KOHTEENA 127 6.1. Ennakoinnin perustavia ongelmia 127 6.2. Ennakoinnin problematiikka analyysitasojen klassisessa Kolmijaossa 129 6.3. Skenaariot ja mallintaminen: perusteita 134 6.4. Strategiset ennusteet hallinnon palveluksessa 136 6.5. Lopuksi 139 7 KVANTITATIIVISTEN MENETELMIEN VAIHTOEHTO KANSAINVÄLISEN TURVALLISUUDEN TUTKIMUKSESSA 149 7.1. Onko olemassa kvantitatiivinen maailma ja kvalitatiivinen maailma? 149 7.2. Mitä tutkitaan, kun tutkitaan sotilaallista strategiaa? 151 7.3. Teoriat ja mallinnus 156 7.4. Kvantitatiivisen tutkimuksen tekemisestä 158 7.4.1. Kvantitatiivisista aineistoista 158 7.4.2. Esimerkki kvantitatiivisen aineiston muodostamisesta 162 7.4.3. Tilastollinen kuvaus ja päättely 164 7.5. Määrällisten menetelmien tulevaisuus 166 OSA II EMPIIRISEN TUTKIMUKSEN ALUEITA 171 8 ASEVARUSTELUN, ASEIDENRIISUNNAN JA ASEVALVONNAN KYSYMYKSIÄ 173 8.1. Asevarustelun piirteitä 173 8.2. Aseidenriisunta ja asevalvonta 179 8.3. Monenkeskiset ponnistelut aseidenriisunnassa ja asevalvonnassa 184 8.3.1. Joukkotuhoaseet 184 8.3.2. Sopimus ydinaseiden leviämisen estämisestä (NPT) 185 8.3.3. Ydinaseettomat vyöhykkeet 185 8.3.4. Ydinkoekieltosopimukset 187 8.4. Tavanomaisia aseita koskevat sopimukset 188 8.5. Yhdysvaltain ja Neuvostoliiton (Venäjän) väliset ydinaserajoitusneuvottelut 190 8.6. Suomen rooli aseidenriisunnassa ja asevalvonnassa 193 8.7. Yhteenveto 194 v 9 SOTAAN VARAUTUMISESTA AKTIIVISEEN ASEVOIMAN KÄYTTÖÖN – LÄNSIMAINEN SODAN KUVA MUUTOKSESSA 205 9.1. Näkökulma 206 9.2. Kamppailu sodan olemuksesta 210 9.3. Teknologiapainotteinen kriisinhallintatraditio 211 9.4. Terrorismin sotilaallinen torjunta kriisinhallintatradition loogisena jatkeena 214 9.5. Lopuksi – länsimaisten asevoimien aktiivinen käyttö kylmän sodan jälkeen 217 10 SOTILAALLISET UHKAKUVAT SUOMEN POLITIIKASSA 223 10.1. Sotilaalliset uhkakuvat 224 10.2. Kuvien sisällön muuttuminen 226 10.3. Uhkakuvien käyttö 237 10.4. Suomalaisten uhkakuvien erityisyys ja tulevaisuus 240 11 TERRORISMI 249 11.1. Strategian tutkimus ja terrorismi 249 11.2. Sodankäynnin ja terrorismin yhtäläisyyksistä ja eroista 254 11.3. Terrorismi on strateginen kysymys 255 11.4. Terrorismi epäsymmetrisenä taisteluna 257 12 KANSAINVÄLISEN VALLAN MEGATRENDEJÄ 267 12.1. Maailman väestökehityksen suuntaviivoja 268 12.2. Energiatulevaisuuden kehitysnäkymiä 271 12.3. Luonnonympäristön muutosnäkymiä 275 12.4. Maailman ruokajärjestelmän haasteita ja mahdollisuuksia 276 12.5. Vaikutuksia kansainväliseen järjestelmään 279 12.6. Muutoksia geostrategisella kartalla 280 12.7. Kärjistyvien haasteiden kerrannaisvaikutuksia 282 12.8. Johtopäätöksiä 284 13 LAAJAN LÄHI-IDÄN MUUTTUVA VOIMATASAPAINO JA TURVALLISUUDEN MONISÄIKEINEN VERKOSTO 295 13.1. Johdanto ja maantieteelliset käsitteet 295 13.2. Artikkelin rakenne 298 13.3. Geopolitiikka – laajan Lähi-idän voimatasapaino, kehitys 1979–2010 298 13.4. Voimatasapainon muutokset arabikevään 2011 jälkeen 300 13.5. Islam 302 13.6. Juutalaisuus 304 13.7. Islamin uskon ja juutalaisuuden ristiriidat 305 13.8. Radikaalin islamin kehittyminen, Muslimiveljeskunnasta al-Qaidaan 307 vi 13.9. Turvallisuuskäsite ennen ja jälkeen arabikevään 311 13.10. Arabikulttuurin verkostot ja niiden merkitys turvallisuuteen 313 13.11. Alueelliset organisaatiot ja niiden turvallisuusulottuvuus 314 13.11.1. Arabiliitto 315 13.11.2. Persianlahden arabimaiden yhteistyöneuvosto (GCC) 317 13.11.3. OPEC 319 13.11.4. Islamilaisten maiden yhteistyöjärjestö (OIC) 320 13.12. Koulutus, tiedonvälitys ja media 321 13.13. Johtopäätökset 323 KESKEISTÄ KIRJALLISUUTTA 331 KIRJOITTAJISTA 345 Esipuhe · 1 ESIPUHE Pekka Sivonen uomessa strategiaan kohdistuva tutkimus on vakiintunut tieteenala, joka on osa sotatieteellistä tiedeyhteisöä. Samalla se on osa kansainvälisen po- S litiikan tutkimuksen yhteisöä. Englanninkielisenä vastinparina strategian tieteenalakäsitteelle on strategic studies, ei niinkään strategy. Tällä erottelulla teh- dään ensinnäkin selväksi, että kyse on tutkimuksesta. Toisekseen viitataan laa- ja-alaisuuteen: on kyse paljosta muustakin kansainvälisen turvallisuuden alaan kuuluvasta kuin vain asevoimien käytön strategisesta tasosta. Puhutaan myös kansainvälisen turvallisuuden tutkimuksesta ja opetuksesta. Strategian tutkimuksen ja opetuksen ainoa yliopistollinen laitos maas- samme on puolustusvoimiin kuuluvan Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulun Strategian laitos. Vuonna 2015 se yhdistetään Maanpuolustuskorkeakoulun Taktiikan ja Sotahistorian laitosten kanssa Sotataidon laitokseksi, jonka puitteissa strategia jatkaa itsenäisenä tieteenalana ja oppiaineena. Kansainvälistä turvallisuutta tut- kitaan Suomessa osana laajempaa kansainvälisen politiikan tutkimuksen koko- naisuutta myös opetus- ja kulttuuriministeriön alaisissa yliopistoissa, Ulkopo- liittisessa instituutissa ja ulkoasiainministeriössä. Myös muualla puolustushal- linnon piirissä tehdään virkatyönä kansainväliseen turvallisuuteen kohdistuvaa tutkimus- ja selvitystoimintaa. Strategian laitos määrittelee alansa seuraavasti: ”Strategia on tieteenala ja toimintalinja,
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