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SECURITY INDEX No INTERNATIONAL EDITION SECURITY INDEX No. 2 (82), SUMMER/FALL 2007 The results of PIR Center's work are of particular interest for the Sergei Lavrov A Russian country's foreign policy agencies, given the relapses into a policy of the Journal on unilateral use of force that have caused small countries to feel that International security is scarce and pushed large countries towards increasing Security weapons procurement. The continuing stagnation in the area of disarmament, though no fault of Russia, along with the increasing potential for conflict in the world as a whole are causes for concern. SECURITYSECURITY Russia has inherited the tradition of fighting for disarmament. Gennady Evstafiev The decrease in its activities in this area has ended. There is every reason to expect that Russia will present proposals aimed, if not at stopping, then at least at slowing the most dangerous aspirations of those who believe that there are neither commonsensical nor other limits to their ambitions. IN EX INNo. 2 (82), EX SinoRussian relations are not only more complicated, but also more Dmitri Trenin DDPublisher: PIR Center — Center for Policy Studies (Russia) Summer/Fall 2007 contradictory than they appear in the speeches of the Russian president and the Chinese Communist Party chairman. Russia's leaders, whatever they say publicly and however strongly they suspect the United States of trying to drive a wedge into "model" SinoRussian relations, will not Gennady Evstafiev DISARMAMENT RETURNS accept a strategic bloc with China. Demographic threats could be woven into the discourse of the March Graeme P. Herd Andrei Frolov IRAN'S DELIVERY SYSTEMS CAPABILITIES 2008 presidential campaign. Rather than the Faustian "loans for shares" and Gagik Sargsyan pact of 1996, or the initiation of a second Chechen campaign in 1999 ahead of the 2000 election, March 2008 could well be characterized by the creation of a new SuperNational Russian idea—a unifying strategic Alexei Obukhov NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND CHRISTIAN ETHICS rationale on a par with the "Third Rome" ideology of the medieval and early modern period. The Journal of PIR Center Anton Khlopkov WHAT WILL A NUCLEAR AGREEMENT WITH THE UNITED The new dangers that have emerged in the international arena, which are Alexei Obukhov STATES BRING RUSSIA? primarily linked with the further spread of nuclear weapons and the more acute threat of terrorism, have marginalized the idea of nuclear disarmament as untimely and utopian. It is very seductive to accord the Dmitri Trenin WHAT IS CHINA TO RUSSIA, COMRADE OR MASTER? nuclear weapon the role of arbiter"The Great Inquisitor"something that is sorely needed to prevent nations from engaging in mortal combat for and Vitaly Tsygichko their own selfish interests. This approach would be tantamount to acknowledging the fatal inevitability of continuing the nuclear arms race and having these weapons continue to spread across the earth's surface. 2,938 2,889 Feb. 1, 2007 2,886 2,872 2,887 June 1, 2007 March 1, 2007 Apr. 1, 2007 May 1, 2007 2,886 July 1, 2007 A Russian Journal on International Non multa, sed multum Security Published since November 1994 (1994–2006 under the title Yaderny Kontrol) International Edition SECURITYSECURITY No. 2 (82), Volume 13 ININ DDEXEX Summer/Fall 2007 The academic and policy Editorial Board journal of the PIR Center – Vladimir A. Orlov, EditorinChief Center for Policy Studies (Russia) published three times a year Sergey B. Brilev Vladimir Z. Dvorkin in cooperation with Centre Konstantin P. Eggert russe d'études politiques, Geneve ` Dmitry G. Evstafiev Yury Y. Fedorov Anton V. Khlopkov Vasily F. Lata Yevgeny P. Maslin Azer A. Mursaliev Sergey E. Prikhodko Nikolay N. Spassky Ekaterina A. Stepanova Mikhail V. Yakushev ISSN 19934270 Moscow • Geneva • Monterey SECURITY No. 2 (82), Volume 13 INDEX Summer/Fall 2007 Published since November 1994. From 1994 through 2006 published Translators under the title Yaderny Kontrol. Published three times a year in Russian Cristina Hansell Chuen (February, May, and October) and three times a year in English (March, Michael Gillen June, and November). Roza Kavenoki Ekaterina Rykovanova Registered with the Russian Federal Service for Monitoring the Observance of Legislation in the Sphere of Mass Communication and Editors Protection of Cultural Heritage. Vladimir A. Orlov, EditorinChief [[email protected]] Registration certificate PI № FS 77O26 089 of November 9, 2006. Cristina Hansell Chuen, Editor of the International Edition Pavel A. Mansurov, Assistant Editor [[email protected]] Publisher Yuliya Yu. Taranova, Technical Editor PIR Center – Center for Policy Studies (Russia) Galina D. Rasskazova, Accountant Konstantin A. Sirikov, Distribution Manager Oleg V. Bogatov, Intern Cristina Hansell Chuen, Editor of the International Edition of Security Index Journal Regional Representatives: Dmitry B. Dashevsky, PIR Center Executive Board Member Algiers: Sergei G. Mursankov Baku: Jahangir Arasli Vladimir Z. Dvorkin, Major General, Consultant Bamako: Andrey V. Grebenshchikov Gennady M. Evstafiev, Lieutenant General, Senior Advisor Bishkek: Nuria A. Kutnaeva Yury Y. Fedorov, Dr., PIR Center Executive Board Member Cambridge : Jane Vaynman Konstantin G. Khachaturian, Website Design and Maintenance Specialist Geneva: Inna V. Baranova Anton V. Khlopkov, PIR Center Executive Director Kiev: Sergei P. Galaka Irina A. Kotova, Assistant to the President London: Yury Y. Fedorov Vadim B. Kozyulin, Dr., Special Projects Director Monterey: Cristina Hansell Chuen New Delhi: Irina V. Kozyreva Anastasia M. Laguta, Special Projects Coordinator Nizhny Novgorod: Mikhail I. Rykhtik Vasily F. Lata, Lieutenant General, Consultant Stockholm: Ekaterina A. Stepanova Pavel A. Mansurov, Security Index Assistant Editor Tokyo: Taisuke Abiru Yevgeny P. Maslin, Colonel General, PIR Center Executive Board Member Tomsk: Nikita V. Perfiliev Vladimir A. Mau, Dr., PIR Center Executive Board Member Tyumen: Sergey V. Kondratyev Nikita V. Perfilyev, Intern; Editor, Yaderny Kontrol electronic newsletter Vienna: Nadezhda B. Logutova Vladimir A. Orlov, Dr., PIR Center President and Executive Board Member Vladivostok: Vadim S. Gaponenko Wellington: Mikhail N. Lysenko (ex officio) Warren Polensky, Intern Yevgeny A. Popov, IT Specialist Legal Support: Galina D. Rasskazova, Accountant CAF Russia (Moscow) Ekaterina M. Rykovanova, Information Projects Coordinator Littlefield Financial Services (Monterey) Secretan Troyanov Avocats (Geneva) Yury A. Ryzhov, Ambassador, PIR Center Executive Board Member Sofia N. Shkunova, Secretary Contact Information: Konstantin A. Sirikov, Distribution Manager Mailing Address: Roland M. Timerbaev, Ambassador, PIR Center Executive Board Chairman Security Index Editorial Board Trekhprudny per., No. 11/13, Building 1, Office 025 Roman A. Ustinov, Intern Moscow 123001 Russia Ekaterina A. Votanovskaya, Education Program Coordinator Telephone: Dmitri Yakushkin, PIR Center Executive Board Member +74952340525 (Moscow) Andrey V. Zagorsky, Dr., PIR Center Executive Board Member +41793706810 (Geneva) Vyacheslav A. Zaytsev, Chief Accountant FAX: +74952349558 Website: http://si.pircenter.org/eng The International Edition is distributed from Geneva by Centre russe d'études politiques Website: http://www.crep.ch Subscription: · For Russia/CIS residents, visit, http://pircenter.org/club · For residents outside Russia/CIS, visit http://www.crep.ch/fr/application.html Editorial policy · No part of Security Index may be reproduced in print, electronically, or in any other form without prior written permission in writing from the PIR Center · The published materials, assessments, and conclusions may not necessarily coincide with the opinion of the editors and are the opinions of the authors alone · This publication has been made possible thanks to support from the MacArthur Foundation, the Carnegie Corporation of New York, Ford Foundation, NTI, Ploughshares Fund, and others. · The editorial work on this issue was finished and it was approved for printing on June 30, 2007. Circulation: 4,400 (Russian and International Editions) © PIR Center, 2007 © Centre russe d'études politiques, Geneve, ` 2007 CONTENTS 7 FROM THE EDITOR Three CrossCutting Issues: Disarmament, Nuclear Energy, and China. “Although this issue intentionally presents a diverse group of articles in a multitude of styles, it nevertheless has three themes. First, the issue of disarmament and arms control. Second, the prospects for nuclear energy. And third, China’s new strategic role and what it means for Russia.” INTERVIEWS CONTENTS 11 Jaap de Hoop Scheffer: “NATO is not laundry detergent; NATO is a unique political and military organization.” The NATO Secretary General responds to questions posed by Security Index editorial board member Konstantin Eggert about NATO enlargement, Russia’s relations with the Alliance, and policy towards the postSoviet space and the Middle East. 15 Alexei Krasnov: “Manned space flight has always been an arena of political rivalry.” Head of the Russian Space Agency’s Manned Programs Directorate Alexei Krasnov tells Security Index editorin chief Vladimir Orlov about the future of manned space flights and the prospects for international cooperation in space research, including lunar missions. ANALYSES 19 Gennady Evstafiev, “Disarmament Returns.” Hopes for serious progress in the area of nuclear disarmament have not been justified. What challenges will Russia face in the disarmament process? What should its Western partners do in order to return to fruitful
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