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BUDGET STRATEGY PAPER 2021-22 to 2023-24

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BUDGET STRATEGY PAPER 2021-22 to 2023-24 FINANCE DEPARTMENT GOVERNMENT OF SINDH BUDGET STRATEGY PAPER 2021-22 to 2023-24 www.finance.gos.pk Table of Contents Acknowledgement 2 Executive Summary 3 1. Introduction 4 2. Economic & Social Development 5 3. Medium Term Fiscal Framework 12 4. Revenue of the Province 14 5. Expenditure of the Province 20 6. Sectoral Development & Priorities 27 7. Net Lending 38 8. Financing 39 9. Debt & Contingent Liabilities 41 10. Investment & Fund Management 44 11. Public Private Partnership (PPP) 45 12. Governance 47 13. Risk to Budgetray Projections 53 Annex-1 Recurrent Expenditure Forecast 54 Annex-2 Development Expenditure Forecast 56 Acronyms 58 i 2021-24 Budget Strategy Paper EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Finance Department, Government of Sindh, on 01.04.2021, presented Budget Strategy Paper 2021-24 to the Provincial Cabinet for its approval. The objectives of the paper are to strengthen planning, budgeting and macro fiscal forecasting processes in the province that are responsive to the financial requirements of the departments/ government entities; to make budget making process participative; and to enhance transparency. Budget Strategy Paper (BSP) is three year rolling plan that sets policies and priorities of the government. This paper outlines key macro-economic assumptions, socio-economic indicators, medium term fiscal framework, key sectoral plans, debt management, investments and financial management reforms in the province. The important section of the paper is Medium Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF), and its key elements including tax and non-tax revenues, current and development expenditure, financing and lending arrangements. The process of preparation of Budget Strategy Paper starts with review of existing policies of government and determination of the future requirements of departments with focus on service delivery and development needs of the province. After the priorities are identified and proposals get firmed up in a consultative process amongst the government departments, the Paper is drafted and presented to provincial cabinet for its input, recommendations and approval. The BSP, after its approval by the cabinet, becomes the guiding policy document for consolidation of budgetary proposals. This is a leap forward in the realism of transparency in the formulation of fiscal policy, embodying the spirit of participation and ownership of the stakeholders. The BSP projections are based on historical financial & non-financial trends, new policy intervention, sector strategies and commitments. The financial trends mainly pertain to last 3-5 years and current 6 months expenditures / revenue collection. The BSP gets developed during October – February each year, which may not cover some unforeseen expenditure occurred in running financial year. 3 2021-24 Budget Strategy Paper 1. INTRODUCTION Budget Strategy Paper (BSP) is a strategic document that represents policies and priorities of the Government spanning over the next three financial years in terms of public sector growth. The Paper provides fiscal analysis of the government during last two years and examines fiscal performance of Current Financial Year as well. Based on policies, priorities and trends, BSP projects the estimates of provincial receipts & development and non-development expenditure for next three years. The Paper considers various sub-national macro-economic indicators, need of people and institutions, and capacity of the government to achieve its goals. It is a tool available with the public administration to plan their course of action to synchronize their respective departmental targets with the vision of the government. BSP also assists the legislature to gauge the performance of the Government as well as to suggest improvements in financial management. BSP is an integral part of Public Finance Management systems. This paper is based upon the social and economic developments in Sindh including macro- economic assumptions and socio-economic indicators; medium term fiscal framework providing forecasts of revenue, expenditure and the fiscal balance; short term financing arrangements and details of the current debt; performance on investments and fund management; and presentation of the status of ongoing public financial management reforms. Overall, the entire financial progress of the province is captured in this document. The Budget Strategy Paper is an evolving document as it builds upon the assumptions made in the Budget Strategy Paper published during last two financial years. It is pertinent to mention that the information available on account of socio-economic indicators is deficient as well as not updated due to lack of latest surveys. It is expected that in the years to come, the quality of data would be considerably improved.is expected that in the years to come, the quality of data would be considerably improved. 4 2021-24 Budget Strategy Paper 2. ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT Economic Development: Home to 47.886 million inhabitants (2017), Sindh is the second largest province, with 23 percent of the total population and 17.7 percent of total land area of Pakistan. As an industrial, commercial and financial hub of Pakistan, Sindh plays a pivotal role in the national economy and development. Endowed with coastal access, Sindh is a major center of economic activity in Pakistan and has a highly diversified economy, ranging from heavy industry, manufacturing, services sector and agriculture. Most of the growth in the provincial economy can be attributed to the services sector, followed by the industry. The province has two seaports, handling majority of country’s exports and imports, its vibrant stock exchange and the most resilient business community have been the driving force behind country's economic activity. Gross Domestic Product: On a long-term basis, over a period of 27 years from 1972-73 to 1999-2000, Provincial economies of Punjab, Sindh and KPK have grown at virtually the same rate of close to 5%. The only Province which has shown a significantly lower growth rate is Balochistan. Punjab is the largest provincial economy with a share of over 54% in 2014-15. Sindh is one of the richest provinces in the Federation and its share in the national GDP is estimated to be at around 30 per cent, while its population share is currently at 23 per cent. On the other hand Punjab is the most populous province with 53 per cent of the population contributes between 54 per cent to the national economy. These two large provinces account for more than four-fifth of the national income. The next economy is that of Sindh with a share of 30% in 2014-15. Punjab dominates in agriculture, with a share of over 62% while Sindh has the highest share of industry in its GDP, with a share of 42%. In services sector, especially trade, the growth rate of Sindh is just over 3 percent. Labor Force: Human Capital and its rate of employment is of utmost importance. The labor force in Sindh is estimated at 13.99 million including 11.84 million males and 2.15 million females. The labour force in rural and urban areas is estimated at 7.69 million and 6.3 million respectively. The rate of unemployment in Sindh stood at 4.66% percent, which is lower than national average of 7.71%; the unemployment rate in rural areas is lower (2.46%), than urban areas (7.31%) and the same is lower for males (3.57%) than females (10.92%).ii Agriculture, despite its declining share, is the largest employer with 39.28% labour force in the province, while manufacturing sector employs 15.17%, wholesale and retail trade 15.82%, construction 7%, and transport and storage 5.74%. In case of Sindh, the labour force participation rate has averaged around 42 per cent during the 1990-2015 period except that it declined from 41 per cent to 39.76 in 1997-98. The rate increased subsequently peaking at 45 during 2010-11. An objective analysis of this erratic behavior has not been undertaken but it can be deduced that political economy factors and the 5 2021-24 Budget Strategy Paper unstable law and order situation may have contributed to the dips. Alternatively, migration from rural areas and other parts of the country to the Middle East may have diverted the potential supply. But these factors fall in the realm of speculation rather than informed analysis. It may also be possible that the 1997-98 data may simply be a statistical quirk. The stability in labour force participation can be gauged from the fact that a early as 1974-75, the rate was 43.1-not much different from recent years. It was worth noting that although Sindh is relatively more urbanized, the female urban participation rate in the survey is about 6 per cent which is below the national average and almost one half of that in Punjab. This finding is contrary to the observed trends of females increasingly taking part in education, health, and financial services sectors in Karachi, Hyderabad, and Sukkur. In post COVID-19, it is expected that vulnerable employment across Sindh may lose 3.3 to 4.1 million due to post COVID economic recession, Sindh needs to address to create incentives for labour market and target Grants direct to vulnerable labour segments. Relief package for business sector to encourage them to retain their employees should be adopted. Agriculture: The Agriculture sector, which is the main driver of its rural economy, has been stagnant because of inequitable land distribution and poor resource management particularly that of water coupled with absence of new verities. Both inequality in access to land and water use have exacerbated the situation. Sindh has the highest incidence of absolute landlessness, highest share of tenancy, and the lowest share of land ownership in the country, according to the latest agricultural census of 2010. The wealthy landlords in Sindh, withholdings in excess of 100 acres. Account for 0.45 per cent of all farmers in the province, but own seven per cent of the total farmed land.
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