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March 2000 BA’S Strategic Bubbles CONTENTS Analysis

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March 2000 BA’S Strategic Bubbles CONTENTS Analysis Aviation Strategy Issue No: 29 March 2000 BA’s strategic bubbles CONTENTS Analysis A's new business class product has been well received, but the BA’s new strategy revisited 1-2 Bairline is still not persuading investors of the viability of its busi- ness plan, as evidenced by its feeble share price performance. US low-cost carriers In order to clarify its strategy BA has produced the following reassert themselves 2-3 chart. The bubbles represent BA's various business segments, the bigger the bubble the bigger the revenues. Their position on the A3XX: the question chart depends on two things - their profitability and the value of of space 3 assets (aircraft) that are associated with the segment. The idea, at its most basic, is to grow and defend its most prof- Canada after the duopoly 4-5 itable segments, mostly the point-to-point premium services, both long and short haul. In segments like long-haul point-to-point econ- 1999 turboprop orders: omy, BA aims to enhance its market position and improve the yield death reports exaggerated 5-7 mix. As for long/short haul connecting economy traffic, that is tar- geted for deflation. How to sell an airport 8-9 The bubbles will not only float upwards if BA's plan succeeds, they will also drift to the left so further improving the company's RoI. In other words, as the airline downsizes, say from 747 to 777- Briefing types, less capital will be tied up in the various segments. WestJet: Southwest formula, One problem facing BA is the extent of the yield increase that it expertly executed 10-13 will have to return to the profitability level of 1996/97. According to our calculations, BA is going to have to push average yields up by Braathens: reeling from 2% in 2000/01, 8% the next year and 4% the following year, even market share battles 14-17 PROFITABILITY OF BA’S BUSINESS SEGMENTS Management Implementing a turn-around +ve SH P2P LH P2P Premium Premium strategy - Bethune at Continental 18-19 Grow & SH:SH Defend Macro-ttrends 20-21 Premium LH:LH Economy LH P2P Economy Micro-ttrends 22-23 0 LH:SH Improve Premium Position & Mix Profitability LH:LH Premium PUBLISHER SH P2P Economy Reduce Exposure Aviation Economics LH:SH Economy -ve James House, LG, SH:SH Economy 22/24 Corsham Street Asset Value £ London N1 6DR Tel: +44 (0) 207 490 5215 Size of bubble = Revenue Fax: +44 (0) 207 490 5218 SH = Short haul; LH = Long haul; P2P = Point to Point e-mail: [email protected] Aviation Strategy Analysis assuming that load factors move up to 70% some arbitrary target imposed by manage- from the present 66.9%. This would give BA ment. a net profit of about £350m in 2002/03 (this Oneworld implications year, 1999/00, will probably end up at around -£250m). There is also the question of the implica- This yield target is very ambitious - no air- tions of BA's new strategy for its oneworld line, as far as we now has achieved such a alliance partners. BA is in effect downplaying yield improvement. And business-class its role as a network carrier (note the out- fares from London are by some way the sourcing to Go and the decision to sell Air Aviation highest in Europe now. Perhaps there are Liberte). In effect, it is becoming a larger- Strategy is published 12 more operating cost savings to be made, scale Virgin Atlantic. So there is a greatly times a year by from the Internet, for example, but that isn't diminished role for mutual feed, and the Aviation clear yet. urgency of BA's need to establish a full Economics BA has to focus more on all its customers codesharing agreement with American must on the first of to have a chance of charging higher premi- have faded (American in any case seems to each month um fares. Yet staff morale doesn't seem too be becoming more interested in its wonderful at present, and is unlikely to Swissair/Sabena connections). Editors: Keith McMullan improve when the airline downsizes and lays American would still be extremely valu- Tim Coombs off employees. Adapting one of Gordon able to BA if the two carriers were able to Bethune's ideas ( see pages 18-19) might be consolidate and control key trunk routes on Subscription helpful - promise the staff bonuses related to the Atlantic. But surely the regulators enquiries: the number of business and economy travel wouldn't permit that, even as a trade-off for Tim Coombs/Keith McMullan awards the airline receives rather than to full open skies. Tel: +44 (0) 207 490 5215 US low-cost carriers Copyright: Aviation Economics reassert themselves All rights reserved Aviation hile the high-cost US major carriers are had risen by 49% since January 1996 (while Economics now expected to report reduced earnings in leisure fares declined by 13%), began shifting to Registered No: W 2967706 (England) 2000, the prospects for many of the low-fare new the coach cabin or to low-fare airlines. entrants and the regionals, as well as Southwest As a result, many low-fare operators reported Registered Office: of course, remain very favourable. strong yields and earnings growth last year. And James House, LG According to James Parker, analyst at the majors are now under pressure to make up 22/24 Corsham St Atlanta-based SunTrust Equitable Securities who for the business traffic revenue shortfall by raising London N1 6DR VAT No: 701780947 focuses on what he calls the "growth airline sec- leisure fares, which would shift even more traffic tor", the lower-cost operators will continue to gain to low-fare carriers. (Northwest is trying to tackle ISSN 1463-9254 market share from the large carriers and have The opinions expressed in this publication do not nec- sustainable 13-30% annual earnings growth UNIT COST TRENDS essarily reflect the opinions rates. (Cents/ASM) of the editors, publisher or contributors. Every effort is Not so long ago, it looked like the majors were Majors Low cost Difference made to ensure that the information contained in this getting the upper hand. In 1996-1998, they carriers publication is accurate, but became more price competitive, thanks to more 1993 8.86 8.43 0.43 no legal reponsibility is accepted for any errors or sophisticated yield management systems and the 1994 8.91 6.92 1.99 omissions. ability to subsidise cheap seats with higher busi- 1995 9.08 7.68 1.40 1996 9.45 8.83 0.68 The contents of this publica- ness fares. This helped stem the flow of price- tion, either in whole or in 1997 9.51 8.62 0.89 part, may not be copied, sensitive traffic to the low-fare sector. 1998 9.56 7.65 1.91 stored or reproduced in any 1999 9.63 7.90 1.73 format, printed or electronic, However, in 1999 the market share trend without the written consent turned back in favour of the low-fare airlines as of the publisher. Source: SEC, SunTrust business travellers, fed up with paying fares that March 2000 2 Aviation Strategy Analysis the problem by reducing business fares with its Frontier and AirTran PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL "Bizflex" initiative, though PaineWebber analyst have proved that low-fare BOOKINGS VIA THE INTERNET Sam Buttrick believes that the move is "potential- airlines can co-exist with ly net revenue dilutive".) the majors at hubs, as Low cost carriers The majors may become more restrictive in long as they are careful AirTran 17% Southwest 15% offering very cheap seats through the Internet, not to offer excessively Frontier 7% because the impact appears to be a net dilution in low fares or try to sub- WestJet 5% revenue. In any case, price-sensitive travellers stantially expand market are more likely to hit the web sites of low-fare air- share. US majors US Airways 7.2% lines first. Internet bookings represent about 10% While the regional air- Delta 7.0% of low-fare airlines' total bookings (and as much line sector has shrunk Northwest 6.5% as 17% of AirTran's), compared to 3.5-7% for the with Delta's acquisition of United 4.0% majors. Comair and ASA, Parker American 3.5% Continental 3.5% Also, unit cost differentials between the points out that the sharply majors and low-cost carriers are likely to increase improved profitability of Source: SunTrust further over the next few years. The major carri- Frontier and AirTran and ers remain under pressure on the wage front and the IPO of WestJet have expanded investment may even lose some of the benefits achieved with opportunities in the growth airline sector. His best the low-cost subsidiaries. For example, United's picks, though, are Southwest and its European pilots have succeeded in bringing B-scale United "refined version" Ryanair. Frontier and AirTran Express wages up to the level of the mainline are recommended as "more aggressive invest- pilots. ments". A3XX: the question of space espite an absence of definite commitment to actually be alleviat- AIRBUS’S AIRCRAFT SIZE FORECAST Dthe A3XX from target airlines, the project will ed by upsizing Average be given a major boost if the UK government from 120 to 150 seats agrees to provide £540m ($865m) of launch aid to seaters, from 150 300 310 BAE Systems. Unconfirmed reports at the end of seaters to 180 275 February suggested that the funds would be forth- seaters, etc.. coming (for an explanation of launch aid see Jurgen Weber, 250 244 235 236 End Aviation Strategy, December 1999).
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