An Empirical Study of Observational Learning Peter W. Newberry∗ The Pennsylvania State University June 17, 2013 Abstract This paper is an empirical examination of observational learning. Using data from an online market for music, I find that learning is a valuable tool for the producers of high quality products and for consumers, but not necessarily for the online platform. I also study the role of pric- ing as a friction to the learning process by comparing outcomes under a demand-based pricing scheme to the counterfactual outcomes under a fixed price. I find that a price of 99 cents per song (the traditional price in the industry) hampers learning by reducing the incentive to experiment. Keywords: Observational Learning, Online Markets, Recorded Music, Search Goods, Demand- Based Pricing JEL Codes: L15, L82, M31, D83 ∗Contact information:
[email protected]. I am grateful to J-F Houde, Ken Hendricks and Alan Sorensen for their support and advice on this project. I also am thankful for comments and suggestions from Paul Grieco, Dan Quint, Chris Adams, Mark Roberts, Russ Cooper, Amit Gandhi and numerous other seminar and conference participants. All remaining errors are my own. 1 Introduction When a consumer is uncertain about a new product, she may rely on information provided by her peers as a signal of the unknown quality. Opportunities for this social learning exist in many markets today, with product reviews and/or popularity rankings being especially prevalent. The latter is an example of observational learning: learning from observing the purchase decisions of your peers. In this paper, I estimate the effect of observational learning on three market-level outcomes: the probability of success for a high quality product (i.e., discovery), the expected consumer welfare, and the expected revenue.