DOCSLIB.ORG

Review of Treasury Macroeconomic and Revenue Forecasting

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Review of Treasury Macroeconomic and Revenue Forecasting REVIEW OF TREASURY MACROECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECASTING December 2012 © Commonwealth of Australia 2013 ISBN 978-0-642-74883-6 This publication is available for your use under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence, with the exception of the Commonwealth Coat of Arms, the Treasury logo, photographs, images, signatures and where otherwise stated. The full licence terms are available from http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/legalcode. Use of Treasury material under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence requires you to attribute the work (but not in any way that suggests that the Treasury endorses you or your use of the work). Treasury material used ‘as supplied’ Provided you have not modified or transformed Treasury material in any way including, for example, by changing the Treasury text; calculating percentage changes; graphing or charting data; or deriving new statistics from published Treasury statistics — then Treasury prefers the following attribution: Source: The Australian Government the Treasury Derivative material If you have modified or transformed Treasury material, or derived new material from those of the Treasury in any way, then Treasury prefers the following attribution: Based on The Australian Government the Treasury data Use of the Coat of Arms The terms under which the Coat of Arms can be used are set out on the It’s an Honour website (see www.itsanhonour.gov.au). Sources Unless stated otherwise, the source for charts and tables is the Treasury and the source for macroeconomic data outcomes is the Australian National Accounts (ABS Cat. No. 5206.0). Other Uses Inquiries regarding this licence and any other use of this document are welcome at: Manager Communications The Treasury Langton Crescent Parkes ACT 2600 Email: [email protected] Dr Martin Parkinson PSM Secretary to the Treasury Treasury Building Langton Crescent, Parkes ACT 2600 Dear Dr Parkinson, We have pleasure in presenting to you the Treasury Forecasting Review (attached). With the last major review completed in 2005, the intention of this Review is to undertake an up-to-date ‘health check’ of the Treasury's economic and revenue forecasting processes and associated performance. The Advisory Panel considers that those objectives have been achieved. The report was prepared by the Secretariat established within the Treasury for that purpose. The Review does not include the 2012-13 Budget forecasts since outcomes for 2012-13 are not yet available. The Secretariat has authored the report and is responsible for the data, analysis and commentary in the report. The Advisory Panel has played an oversight role, including providing comments and suggestions to the Secretariat on the scope and content of the report. In addition, the Advisory Panel has prepared the Executive Summary which includes a number of recommendations and suggestions for further improving the Treasury’s forecasting processes going forward. The Advisory Panel considers that these suggestions may assist the Treasury in meeting the considerable forecasting challenges that arise during times of heightened economic uncertainty and volatility. The members of the Advisory Panel would like to thank you for the opportunity of contributing to this Review. We would also like to thank the members of the Secretariat for their co-operative and unfailingly helpful approach throughout to the various discussions about forecasting methodologies, assessments of the quality of the forecasts and the governance arrangements for producing the forecasts, and for their willingness to either debate or take on board the Advisory Panel’s suggestions. The Advisory Panel considers that periodic reviews of the Treasury’s forecasting methodology and record involving external advisers are to be commended and reflect positively on the Treasury. Yours sincerely Dr David Chessell (Chair) Mr Peter Crone Dr Malcolm Edey Dr Lynne Williams Advisory Panel to the Review of Treasury Macroeconomic and Revenue Forecasting TABLE OF CONTENTS Letter of Transmission ........................................................................................................................ iii Terms of Reference .............................................................................................................................. vii Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. ix Recommendations of the Treasury Forecasting Review ............................................................... xxiii Section 1: Background ........................................................................................................................... 1 Section 2: Appropriateness of Forecasting Methodology ................................................................... 7 Section 3: Quality and Accuracy of Forecast Performance ............................................................. 25 Section 4: Case Studies ........................................................................................................................ 43 Attachment A: Recommendations of the 2005 Forecasting Review ............................................. A–1 Attachment B: Further Detail of Macroeconomic Forecasting Practices .................................... B–1 Attachment C: Further Detail of Revenue Forecasting Practices ................................................ C–1 Attachment D: Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance ........................................................... D–1 Attachment E: Revenue Forecasting Performance ........................................................................ E–1 v TERMS OF REFERENCE Review of Treasury Macroeconomic and Revenue Forecasting Background Treasury’s forecasting of the macroeconomy and revenues operates in an environment of continuous evaluation and development. The forecasts are regularly subjected to internal review and to external review as part of the quarterly Joint Economic Forecasting Group (JEFG) meetings with relevant agencies. However, from time to time, it is valuable to formally take stock of the Department’s forecasting capability and performance. This was most recently done in 2005 for both macroeconomic and revenue forecasting, and it is timely to again take stock. Scope The review will assess the quality of Treasury forecasting of the macroeconomy and revenue by examining the appropriateness of forecasting methodologies and comparing forecast accuracy with other forecasters both in Australia and overseas. Governance The review will be undertaken by a team within Treasury, overseen by an independent external Reference Group with relevant expertise. Timing Three months. Reporting A summary of the Review will be published later in the year. vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction The past 10 years has been challenging for economic and revenue forecasting. Two major developments in particular stand out. The first relates to rapid rates of industrialisation in Asia, particularly in China, which increased worldwide demand for natural resources and, in turn, underpinned a sharp sustained rise in commodity prices and a mining investment boom (Mining Boom Mark I). The second relates to the impact of the global financial crisis and its aftermath on the Australian economy and taxation receipts and the emergence of a second phase of the mining boom (GFC and Mining Boom Mark II). In common with many forecasters in Australia and overseas, Treasury has experienced mixed success forecasting over this period. In particular, the identification and prediction of major turning points in economic activity recently has been a failing of most forecasters around the world. Against this backdrop of a volatile economic environment, and the time that has passed since the previous review, Treasury decided that it was again timely to formally take stock of the Department’s forecasting practices, capability and performance. The Review has: • assessed the quality of Treasury’s macroeconomic and revenue forecasts by examining the appropriateness of forecasting methodologies and, data permitting, comparing forecast accuracy with other forecasters, both in Australia and overseas, over periods between 1990-91 and 2011-12; and • prepared two case studies, which relate to the most recent challenges confronting forecasters, namely Mining Boom Mark I (2003-04 to 2007-08) and the GFC and Mining Boom Mark II (2008-09 to 2011-12). A Secretariat was established within Treasury for this purpose, overseen by an independent external reference group. Treasury’s Macroeconomic and Revenue Forecasting Methodology The Review’s terms of reference require the quality of Treasury’s forecasts to be assessed by first examining the appropriateness of forecasting methodologies. With this end in mind, a high-level survey of international forecasting practices has been prepared that provides a benchmark against which to assess Treasury’s forecasting methodology. The Review has assessed Treasury’s forecasting processes against the criteria that Treasury: • draws upon the full range of information in preparing its forecasts; • utilises this information efficiently by drawing upon models/technical tools appropriate to the forecasting task; and • has governance arrangements in place that provide quality assurance of its forecasts and ensure continuous evaluation of its methodology. The Review finds that Treasury has made a substantial investment in its macroeconomic and taxation revenue forecasting
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Tony Cole Is a CDU University Fellow and a Senior Partner, Mercer, Based in Sydney. Over Recent Years He Has Led the Asia Pacific Investment Consulting Business
    Presentation by Tony Cole - China and the Lewis Turning Point Tony Cole is a CDU University Fellow and a Senior Partner, Mercer, based in Sydney. Over recent years he has led the Asia Pacific investment consulting business. Tony recently moved to a new role centred on key client consulting, thought leadership. Before joining Mercer in 1996, he was executive director of the Life Investment and Superannuation Association of Australia. Earlier, he served the Australian government in various senior positions, including Chairman of the Industry Commission, Secretary to the Treasury, and Secretary of the Department of Human Services and Health. Tony has a bachelor's degree in economics from the University of Sydney. In 1995, he was awarded an Order of Australia for service to government and industry. Tony was the Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research for 10 years to 2011. He is a member of the minimum wages panel of Fair Work Australia and of the Advisory Board of the Northern Territory Treasury Corporation. He was a member of the Abbot Government’s Commission of Audit. Tony is also a Trustee Director of the Commonwealth Superannuation Corporation which manages retirement savings for Australian Government employees and a director of Australian Ethical Investors Ltd. China - at a turning point? As the world's largest trader with the world's largest foreign currency reserves and soon to be the World's largest economy, China's economic performance is vital to the world economy - especially during a period when so much of the world economy is in the doldrums.
    [Show full text]
  • How the Bank Got Its Groove Back
    How the Bank Got Its Groove Back Stephen Bell, Australia’s Money Mandarins: The Reserve Bank and the Politics of Money, Cambridge University Press, 2004 Reviewed by William Coleman his is the story of how the Reserve Bank of Australia won its independence. The tale is told with a trove of interviews of the principal protagonists — Bob Johnston, Bernie T Fraser, John Phillips, Paul Keating. Ian Macfarlane is also interviewed, the only interview, in my reckoning, that he has ever granted. The words used by Macfarlane, and the other central bankers, have a candour and immediacy that constitute a rarity to be prized by central bank watchers in Australia, and abroad. Stephen Bell is to be congratulated. Our story begins in the early 80s, when there was movement in the air. The Campbell Inquiry had reported; a new governor, Bob Johnston was installed. The Bank, however, was slumbering in contented submission to the Federal Government. And this was just how the new Treasurer Paul Keating wanted it to stay. When Keating came into office [in 1983] he clearly assumed the old rules of the game applied. The Treasurer made monetary policy on the advice of the Reserve Bank and the Treasury … . I am sure he came into office firmly of that view … .(Ian Macfarlane) As the Bank was also firmly of that view there was, initially, no lack of mutual confidence. Trust was lost because of Keating’s wrath at the lack of ‘instant action’ in response to his behests. The critical incident came in March 1988, with the resolution to tighten monetary policy.
    [Show full text]
  • CEDA's Top 10 Speeches of 2012
    10 CEDA’s Top 10 Speeches of 2012 A collection of the most influential and interesting speeches from the CEDA platform in 2012 CEDA’s Top 10 Speeches of 2012 A collection of the most influential and interesting speeches from the 10CEDA platform in 2012 About this publication CEDA’s Top 10 Speeches 2012 © CEDA 2012 ISBN: 0 85801 285 5 The views expressed in this document are those of the authors, and should not be attributed to CEDA. CEDA’s objective in publishing this collection is to encourage constructive debate and discussion on matters of national economic importance. Persons who rely upon the material published do so at their own risk. Designed by Robyn Zwar Graphic Design Photography: CEDA Photo Library with the exception of page 55 (also repeated on front page). Image of Susan Ryan AO supplied by Australian Human Rights Commission. About CEDA CEDA – the Committee for Economic Development of Australia – is a national, independent, member-based organisation providing thought leadership and policy perspectives on the economic and social issues affecting Australia. We achieve this through a rigorous and evidence-based research agenda, and forums and events that deliver lively debate and critical perspectives. CEDA’s expanding membership includes more than 800 of Australia’s leading businesses and organisations, and leaders from a wide cross-section of industries and academia. It allows us to reach major decision makers across the private and public sectors. CEDA is an independent not-for-profit organisation, founded in 1960 by leading Australian economist Sir Douglas Copland. Our funding comes from membership fees, events, research grants and sponsorship.
    [Show full text]
  • Considering the Creation of a Domestic Intelligence Agency in the United States
    HOMELAND SECURITY PROGRAM and the INTELLIGENCE POLICY CENTER THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND Homeland Security Program RAND Intelligence Policy Center View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.
    [Show full text]
  • PART FIVE Appendices
    PART FIVE APPENDICES Occupational health and safety 269 Freedom of information 271 Advertising and market research 284 Ecologically sustainable development and environmental performance 285 Grants 287 Resource tables 288 List of requirements 292 Glossary 296 Abbreviations and acronyms 300 ParT 5 APPENDICES OCCUPatIONAL HEALTH AND SAFETY Under the Occupational Health and Safety Act 1991, the Treasury must provide and maintain a safe and healthy work environment for all its employees, contractors and visitors to the workplace. The Treasury takes this commitment seriously, and strongly emphasises prevention, early intervention and education. The Treasury actively encourages staff to contribute to a safer and happier workplace by reporting potential hazards, incidents and accidents as soon as they occur, being sensible about their actions in the workplace and demonstrating Treasury People Values at all times. Results from the Treasury’s 2009 Staff Opinion Survey confirm that 85 per cent of staff are satisfied that Treasury is a safe and healthy workplace. The Treasury continues to explore and implement strategies to help minimise the human and financial costs of injury and illness. Policies and strategies introduced in 2009‑10 include: The Treasury’s Injury Management and Workers Compensation Policy and Guide: to provide comprehensive and practical guidance to both managers and injured/ill employees on support and available assistance, early intervention, rehabilitation, the compensation process and the rights and responsibilities of all parties involved; The Treasury’s Early Intervention Policy: to broaden the scope of assistance and support offered to minimise the negative effects of an injury or illness on both the individual and the department by early and appropriate management.
    [Show full text]
  • Treasury Covid-19 Economic Impact Analysis
    National Plan to Transition to Australia’s National COVID-19 Response Economic Impact Analysis © Commonwealth of Australia 2021 ISBN: 978-1-925832-39-6 This publication is available for your use under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence, with the exception of the Commonwealth Coat of Arms, the Treasury logo, photographs, images, signatures and where otherwise stated. The full licence terms are available from http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/legalcode. Use of Treasury material under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence requires you to attribute the work (but not in any way that suggests that the Treasury endorses you or your use of the work). Treasury material used ‘as supplied’. Provided you have not modified or transformed Treasury material in any way including, for example, by changing the Treasury text; calculating percentage changes; graphing or charting data; or deriving new statistics from published Treasury statistics – then Treasury prefers the following attribution: Source: The Australian Government the Treasury. Derivative material If you have modified or transformed Treasury material, or derived new material from those of the Treasury in any way, then Treasury prefers the following attribution: Based on The Australian Government the Treasury data. Use of the Coat of Arms The terms under which the Coat of Arms can be used are set out on the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet website (see www.pmc.gov.au/government/commonwealth-coat-arms). Other uses Enquiries regarding this licence and any other use of this document are welcome at: Manager Media and Speeches Unit The Treasury Langton Crescent Parkes ACT 2600 Email: [email protected] i National Plan to Transition to Australia’s National COVID-19 Response Contents Contents ......................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Cew Case Studies
    CEW CASE STUDIES The Treasury The Leadership Shadow Values, context setting, message repetition and emphasis • Deliver a compelling case for gender balance • Provide regular updates and celebrate success Introduction What I say Rewards, recognition, Behaviours, symbols, accountability relationships • Understand the numbers • Be a role model for an inclusive and levers; set targets My culture • Hold yourself and your How I act • Build a top team with a critical How I measure Leadership The Treasury is the Australian government’s central economic policy agency, providing advice team to account Shadow mass of women • Get feedback on your own • Call out behaviours and to the Treasurer and other Treasury Ministers. Treasury is engaged in a range of issues from leadership shadow decisions that are not consistent with an inclusive culture macroeconomic policy settings to microeconomic reform, to social policy, as well as tax policy and international agreements and forums. Treasury works with a ‘whole-of-economy’ perspective, understanding government and stakeholder circumstances, and responding rapidly to changing events and directions’ (http://www.treasury.gov.au/About-Treasury/OurDepartment). How I prioritise Disciplines, routines, interactions The Department is divided into five groups: the cream of economics and finance graduates. • Engage senior leaders directly Fiscal, Macroeconomic, Revenue, Markets, and It’s also sticky – many who join choose to spend • Play a strong role in key recruitment and promotion decisions Corporate Strategy and Services. their entire career in Treasury, with their work a • Champion flexibility for men and women vocation, and many describing their workplace Treasury employed 881 people as at 30 June 2014, as a ‘family’.
    [Show full text]
  • Martin Parkinson Psm
    DR MARTIN PARKINSON PSM Martin Parkinson is internationally renowned as one of Australia’s best known economists and policy thinkers. Martin has a global reputation as an innovative leader who challenges conventional thinking, linking economic, political and strategic perspectives to identify the opportunities and challenges that need to be navigated by nations, industries and individual organisations. Dr Martin Parkinson served as Australia’s Secretary to the Treasury from March 2011 to December 2014. Prior to this, Martin served as inaugural Secretary of the Department of Climate Change from its establishment in December 2007. The Secretary to the Treasury is the Australian Government's chief adviser on all areas of economic policy. As such, Martin led a team of around 1000 staff with direct responsibility for macro-economic analysis, design and implementation of budget and fiscal policy, taxation policy and legislative design, commonwealth-state financial relations, and microeconomic and structural issues including regulatory frameworks for the financial sector, capital markets, corporate and consumer law, and foreign investment. Martin also oversaw the direction and implementation of Australia's multilateral and bilateral economic diplomacy through Treasury's six international offices and Australia's representatives at the IMF, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, OECD and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). In 2014 he was heavily involved with the Finance track of Australia’s presidency of the G-20, and worked closely with business leaders on the B20. As Treasury Secretary of one of the world’s 20 largest economies, Martin was a key contributor to decisions around a national budget of over $400 billion, an annual Treasury Department budget in excess of $170 million, the management of payments on behalf of the Government of more than $100 billion annually, and for the operation of Australia’s $300 billion sovereign debt portfolio.
    [Show full text]
  • Bernie Fraser
    Bernie Fraser Former Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia & economist As the former governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bernie Fraser is able to demystify the intricacies of global of economic trends, taxation and superannuation. Bernie worked in the Commonwealth Public Service for 25 years, spending time in Treasury, interspersed with postings in London as a Treasury representative, three years in the Department of Finance and three years as Director of the National Energy Office. Bernie was then appointed Secretary to the Treasury, and five years later, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. A position he held for seven years from 1989 to 1996. Since his retirement from the Reserve Bank, Bernie Fraser has satisfied his social justice and equity concerns through directorships at two large industry superannuation funds, C+BUS and Australian Super, as well as being on the board of Members Equity, the bank owned by the industry funds. Between board meetings, he runs cattle on his farm near Queanbeyan on the outskirts of Canberra, and breeds and trains a few thoroughbred racehorses. Bernie Fraser has received Honorary Doctorates from the University of New England and Charles Sturt University. He is also an honorary Professor of Economics at the University of Canberra. Bernie has written a foreword to a book about global corruption, A Game As Old As Empire, which contains a dozen essays on greed, tax evasion and foreign aid scams. Bernie is able to advise corporations, governments and institutions on the ‘big picture’ of global trends and how they relate to Australian financial markets and the economy in general.
    [Show full text]
  • E Supporting Research and Related Activities
    E Supporting research and related activities The Commission’s supporting research program encompasses a range of activities. This appendix provides brief summaries of Commission Research Papers, Submissions and Staff Working Papers released in the year. It also lists the presentations given by the Chairman, Commissioners and staff to parliamentary committees, conferences and industry and community groups in 2007-08, as well as briefings to international visitors. Commission research papers Financial performance of government trading enterprises, 2004-05 to 2005-06 July 2007 The study formed part of the Commission's research into the performance of Australian industries and the progress of microeconomic reform. The performance of 85 government trading enterprises (GTEs) providing services in key sectors of the economy — including electricity, water, urban transport, railways, ports and forestry — were presented in the report. These GTEs controlled about 3.3 per cent of Australia’s non-household assets ($197 billion), and accounted for around 2 per cent of GDP in 2005-06. Key points of the study were: • Overall, the profitability of GTEs increased by 61 per cent in 2005-06 with improvements recorded in all sectors compared with the previous year. The largest improvements were in the electricity, railways and forestry sectors. However, profitability varied among GTEs: – profits declined for 37 per cent of GTEs – eleven GTEs (six in the water sector) failed to report a profit SUPPORTING 175 RESEARCH AND RELATED ACTIVITIES – for most sectors recording a profit improvement, much of this was derived from the performance of only one of the GTEs in that sector (between 39 and 65 per cent of increased profits).
    [Show full text]
  • 6 Sir Roland Wilson – Primus Inter Pares
    6 Sir Roland Wilson – Primus Inter Pares Selwyn Cornish1 When Roland Wilson was inducted into the military cadets at age 14 he weighed scarcely 25 kg; at full height he was only 158 cm.2 He was clearly a person of slight build and short stature. But he frequently reminded those who drew attention to these facts that his endowment of brainpower was more than adequate compensation. He could run intellectual rings around ministers, business leaders, academics, public servants and journalists. Yet he was not only highly intelligent; he also possessed moral courage and had a biting wit. According to Douglas Copland, Wilson at an early age exhibited ‘force of character and capacity for leadership’.3 As to wit, a colleague remarked that Wilson used it ‘for many a devastating one liner’, adding that the ‘one-liner could be humorous, or it could be like a whiplash’.4 Wilson stood up to some of the most powerful men in this country and abroad, including Eddie Ward and John Foster Dulles. Tom Fitzgerald, the finance editor of the Sydney Morning Herald, accurately summed up Wilson when he said that ‘[b]y his intelligence and force of character, Sir Roland Wilson has been the outstanding public servant of his generation’.5 John Maynard Keynes, who observed Wilson in action at a conference in London during the war, reported that he and other Whitehall officials had ‘the greatest respect for his wisdom and for his pertinacity’.6 1 This paper draws heavily on the following three publications: S. Cornish, Sir Roland Wilson: A Biographical Essay (Canberra: The Sir Roland Wilson Foundation, 2002); W.
    [Show full text]
  • Departmental Overview
    Part 1 Departmental overview Departmental overview Secretary’s review In the year and a half since my return, Treasury has continued its evolution as an organisation driven by the need to promote policies that are fiscally responsible, market-oriented and reform-focussed. I note once again the diverse range of issues and responsibilities Treasury covers: everything from the global economy to fiscal policy, Commonwealth-State relations, foreign investment, taxation, superannuation, productivity reform and the financial system. A further 15 agencies constitute our wider portfolio. Our core business remains supporting the Government with sound economic advice and robust analysis. It’s not every year that Treasury, along with our Finance colleagues, must deliver a Budget as well as both a Pre-election and a Mid-year Economic and Fiscal Outlook but this year we did. When the Budget was brought forward by a week, we rose to the occasion. We also released a PEFO that was rigorous and forthright. John A. Fraser Secretary to the Treasury Treasury remains focussed on the need to support sustained growth in the Australian economy. We have undertaken significant work on tax reform and are continuing to invest in our capability to ensure that we have a vision for the tax system of the future. We are also working to implement competition and productivity-enhancing reforms in response to the Harper Competition Policy Review. Treasury’s core business has essentially not changed but the way we do business certainly has. Treasury is — and must become even more so — a more outward-looking department than it was when I left the department twenty years ago.
    [Show full text]