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Poverty Assessment in South Sudan

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Poverty Assessment in South Sudan Poverty Assessment and Mapping in Sudan Part 2 Poverty Assessment Southern Sudan Cesar Guvele, Hamid Faki, Eltahir Nur, Abdelaziz Abdelfattah and Aden Aw-Hassan Agricultural Economics and Policy Research Centre (AEPRC), Agricultural Research CorporaƟon (ARC), Sudan Poverty Assessment Southern Sudan Copyright © 2012 ICARDA (Internaonal Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas). All rights reserved. ICARDA encourages fair use of this material for non-commercial purposes, with proper citaon. Citaon: Poverty Assessment Southern Sudan, Cesar Guvele, Hamid Faki, Eltahir Nur, Abdelaziz Abdelfaah and Aden Aw-Hassan. ICARDA, Aleppo, Syria. vi + 55 pp. ISBN: 92-9127-262-0 Internaonal Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) P.O.Box 5466, Aleppo, Syria Tel: +963 21 2213433, 2213477, 2225012 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.icarda.org The views expressed are those of the authors, and not necessarily those of ICARDA. Where trade names are used, it does not imply endorsement of, or discriminaon against, any product by the Center. Maps have been used to support research data, and are not intended to show polical boundaries. ii Contents Execuve Summary ............................................................................................................................. v Poverty Assessment in Southern Sudan ............................................................................................... 1 1. Introducon ................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Poverty: A Conceptual Framework, Analysis, and Acon Strategies ............................................. 1 3. Background to Poverty in Southern Sudan .................................................................................... 5 4. The Agricultural Situaon in Southern Sudan .............................................................................. 18 5. Required Acons for Agricultural Development .......................................................................... 22 6. Fiscal Management and Poverty in Southern Sudan ................................................................... 25 7. Sudan’s Banking System and Poverty in Southern Sudan ............................................................ 29 8. Trade, Industry and Poverty in Southern Sudan ........................................................................... 29 9. Strategy Policy Recommendaons ............................................................................................... 30 10. Policy Acon Recommendaons ................................................................................................. 32 11. Poverty in Selected Areas in Southern Sudan .............................................................................. 37 12. Conclusions and Recommendaons ............................................................................................ 51 References .......................................................................................................................................... 54 iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Poverty assessment in Sudan - Part 2 Southern Sudan. Sudan Rural Poverty Analysis This is Part 2 of a study, presented in three reports that detail the results of a poverty assessment and mapping project in North and Southern Sudan. The study’s objecve was to produce a rural poverty analysis and poverty maps for North and Southern Sudan, and based on these findings, recommend agricultural intervenons that can help reduce poverty. These findings provided an input to the IFAD Sudan Country Program 2007–2012, that takes into consideraon the new constuonal changes in Sudan resulng from the peace agreements with South/East/West Sudan and to support peace, security and stability in Sudan. • Poverty assessment in Northern Sudan – Part 1 • Poverty assessment in Southern Sudan – Part 2 • Mapping of agricultural resource potenal of North and Southern Sudan – Part 3. Southern Sudan Study – Key findings and recommendaons The survey esmates income poverty incidence at 99.6% in the states of Eastern Equatoria State, 88.6% in the Lakes State, and 54.0% in Central Equatoria State. The situaon was especially serious in Eastern Equatoria and Lakes States. The study also showed acute shoralls of the required caloric intake for about a third of both Eastern Equatoria and Central Equatoria States. Some 60% of the populaon in Lakes State faces a shorall in the required daily caloric food intake. This is an indicaon of deep poverty among a sizeable poron of the populaon. Lakes State had the lowest per capita income from both agricultural and non-agricultural sources. In all states, poverty was lower when expenditure esmates were used than when income esmates were used. This is a common feature in poverty analysis, and it is generally believed that expenditures are more easily recalled than incomes, but the ranking of relave poverty by province did not change. To address this acute situaon a set of 14 recommendaons is proposed. The government will need to implement a long-term poverty reducon strategy that takes a broad perspecve – focusing on strengthening its instuons, developing and implemenng policies and legislaon, invesng in related areas of research and infrastructure to link rural communies to economic centers building capacity, systems, and structures for delivering services in the areas of health, educaon, and clean water. Acons for donors and other partners such as the private sector are also specified. Key findings of the assessment: General state of the economy and agriculture v Sudan’s economic structure has undergone a major shi over the past two decades (DTIS 2008), the main drivers of this change are the discovery of oil in the early 2000s and the expansion in services dominated by telecommunicaons, transport, and construcon. Agriculture used to be the leading economic sector, forming typically more than 40% of GDP, but has lost much ground with a drop of its GDP share to 33% in 2007. A more dramac trend has been the deterioraon in the contribuon of agriculture to the country’s exports, declining to some 3% in 2007 down from an average of 74% in the 1996–1998 period. Both the relave share and the absolute value of agricultural exports has declined. Data from the Central Bank of Sudan reveals an annual trend value of $71,500. Both income poverty and general human poverty are concerns for North and Southern Sudan. There is considerable deprivaon in educaon and health, and poor households are parcularly disadvantaged. Yet, despite the current fragile situaon of Sudan’s agriculture, this study found that the countries have enormous potenal to raise crop yields by bridging at least part of its current ‘yield gaps’ – between actual and potenal food producon. These vary from 46% to as high as 566% between on-farm trials and prevailing commercial producvity. Irrigated crops can be improved by margins ranging from about 50% to > 140%. Even higher yield potenal have been idenfied for rainfed crops – where potenal margins ranged from twofold to over fivefold. Prerequisites for achieving these levels of development and macro-economic stability require an ambious development plan that includes: creaon of a sound financial system and an efficient federal system through more decentralizaon, coupled with adequate financial and technical resources and parcipatory mechanisms, and the just income and wealth distribuon. A targeng procedure conducive to poverty reducon in the Sudan is proposed in a chart (see the recommendaon at the end of the Northern Sudan report), which suggests priority agricultural intervenons in the 10 states with both highest income poverty and human poverty levels. Northern Sudan assessment: Key findings and recommendaons (Part 1) The results of the Northern Sudan Poverty Assessment show higher rural than urban poverty, in the six regions studied. This rural–urban disparity was mainly due to the rural–urban differences in food composions and food prices. However, in absolute terms the number of rural poor was greater than of urban poor. Higher poverty incidence in rural areas is a due to chronic low producvity and low income in rural areas. Mapping of agricultural resource potenal of North and Southern Sudan (Part 3) This secon provides detailed maps of different agro-ecological, climac, and soil indices. These have been combined into agricultural resource potenal indices. vi POVERTY ASSESSMENT IN SOUTHERN SUDAN Cesar Guvele, Hamid Faki, Eltahir Nur, Abdelaziz Abdelfaah1 and Aden Aw-Hassan Agricultural Economics and Policy Research Centre (AEPRC), Agricultural Research Corporaon (ARC), Sudan The Centre for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) 1. INTRODUCTION This is the report on poverty assessment in Southern Sudan; a twin to that produced for Northern Sudan. Some differences, however, exist. Due to scanty informaon on Southern Sudan in general, and on quantave esmates on poverty in parcular, empirical esmates on poverty there are somewhat limited. However, a widely agreed-upon statement is that poverty in the south is far more widespread than in the north despite the richer natural endowments in the former. This is largely aributed to the long- term civil conflict in the south that wiped out basic infrastructure, retarded development, and jeopardized livelihoods. However, the report while focusing in the first part on compiling informaon on poverty-related aspects in the south from available literature, later provides quantave
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