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It Can Be a Key Asset for Any Geologist, Geophysicist Or Engineer

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It Can Be a Key Asset for Any Geologist, Geophysicist Or Engineer EXPLORERAAPG 2 JANUARY 2011 WWW.AAPG.ORG Vol. 32, No. 1 JANUARY 2011 EXPLORERAAPG PRESIDENT’SCOLUMN Ready for the Future – In 131 Years? By DAVID G. RENSINK arry Nation, AAPG’s communications have managed to maintain a crude oil director, sent me a press release reserve life of about 42 years throughout Labout a study conducted by two What the authors fail to appreciate that period. University of California-Davis civil and Granted, crude oil is a finite resource, environmental engineers, recently is that the world has had an average but the authors do not seem to grasp the published in Environmental Science & estimated crude oil reserve life of difference between oil reserves and oil Technology. Their study concluded that resource. global oil will run out 90 years before 42 years every year since 1990. If their estimate of 131 years to the technology to replace gasoline and development of a new commercial diesel fuel is ready.* RENSINK transportation technology is applied Their study, to quote the abstract, to the replacement of the internal “establishes a probabilistic theoretical * * * By BP’s analysis, we have a reserve life combustion engine, that would seem approach based on market expectations of 44 years at current production rates. to be a little more plausible. Electric reflected in prices of publicly traded A simple calculation indicates the I applaud the authors’ desire to take vehicles are currently available for short securities to estimate the time horizon authors expect the world to run out of oil a long-term and sustainable view of trips, but we still generate 70 percent until the appearance of new technologies in 41 years. The world’s current rate of the world’s energy situation. However, of our electricity from coal and natural related to replacement of nonrenewable crude oil consumption is approximately what the authors fail to appreciate is gas. At this point, electric vehicles do not resources, for example, crude oil and oil 30 billion barrels of oil per year; that, based on BP’s statistics, the world run on a renewable energy source. The products.” therefore, they are using an estimate of has had an average estimated crude oil biggest hurdles to the development of a They use the market capitalization approximately 1,230 billion barrels of reserve life of 42 years every year since commercial transportation system based of oil and alternative companies, the world crude oil reserves. 1990. on renewable fuels are long-haul trucks, dividends paid by the oil companies This estimate is not very different During that period, approximately trains and airplanes. and oil reserve replacement rates to from BP’s published world oil reserves 540 billion barrels of crude oil have been I hope the world will have that determine when the technology will be of 1,333.1 billion barrels as of 2009 produced. Through discoveries and technology in 131 years. Until that available to replace gasoline and diesel (Statistical Review of World Energy 2010). reserve additions to existing fields, we occurs, crude oil and natural gas will fuel as transportation fuels. continue to be an integral part of our Their calculations indicate the time energy requirements. when “renewable replacement fuels can Also In This Issue be self-sustaining, at least from a market Two special items are included with u The official announcement for perspective,” is 131 years in the future. this issue of the EXPLORER. the AAPG Annual Convention and To many of us, their conclusion would Exhibition, including a complete look at seem faulty – even ridiculous. Biodiesel u A special insert that provides the technical program, special events is already available and it could likely be information on the candidates for AAPG and registration information, is included commercially available within 131 years. office is inserted between pages 12-13. as a separate publication and mailed It appears the technology for potentially The four-page insert includes with this EXPLORER. commercial renewable fuels already *Nataliya Malyshkina and Deb biographical information on all six This year’s ACE will be held April 10- exists. Niemeier; Future Sustainability candidates for the next AAPG Executive 13 at the George R. Brown Convention Nonetheless, I think anyone who Forecasting by Exchange Markets: Basic Committee, plus their responses to the Center in Houston. dares to speculate about technology Theory and Application; Environmental question of why they agreed to stand for This year’s theme is “Making the Next development that far in the future Science and Technology (American national office. Giant Leap in Geosciences.” deserves some consideration. Chemical Society); Nov. 8, 2010. STAFF TABLEofCONTENTS REGULARDEPARTMENTS AAPG Headquarters: Still standing: Despite the ill-fated Angola’s oil industry continues to Geophysical Corner .............................26 1-800-364-2274 (U.S. & Canada only), 4 Macondo disaster in the Gulf 18 benefit from new oil discoveries others 1-918-584-2555 of Mexico, the industry not only and ever-increasing oil production. Communications Director weathered the storm but emerged Washington Watch ................................28 Larry Nation strongly, thanks largely to notable Encore presentation: Last year e-mail: [email protected] discoveries around the world. 22 was the biggest and most Regions and Sections ..........................32 Managing Editor successful year ever for AAPG’s Vern Stefanic Offshore Brazil led the way in international Distinguished e-mail: [email protected] 08 terms of 2010 discoveries, as Lecture program – and Foundation Update ...............................34 offshore deepwater plays there organizers are hoping this year Communications Project Specialist dominated the industry’s and Susie Moore brings more of the same. media’s attention. Membership and Certification ..............36 e-mail: [email protected] West side story: The recent Her amazing adventure: AAPG Correspondents Deepwater Offshore West Africa Courtney Chadney member and EXPLORER 32 Classified Ads ......................................38 12 Conference, held in Nigeria, Louise S. Durham correspondent Susan R. Eaton throws a big spotlight on West Susan R. Eaton got the trip of a lifetime when she Africa’s deepwater potential. Director’s Corner ..................................39 Graphics/Production was selected for the Elysium Matt Randolph Expedition to Antarctica. e-mail: [email protected] Divisions Report (DPA) .........................39 Advertising Coordinator Brenda Merideth ON THE COVER: P.O. Box 979 Tulsa, Okla. 74101 The MV Professor Molchanov at telephone: (918) 560-2647 anchor near the Western Antarctic (U.S. and Canada only: Peninsula, framed by the arch of a 1-800-288-7636) (Note: The above number is sculpted iceberg. AAPG member and for advertising purposes only.) EXPLORER correspondent Susan R. fax: (918) 560-2636 Scan this for the Photo courtesy of Susan R. Eaton Eaton was among those spending time e-mail: [email protected] mobile version of the on the ship when she was selected for current web Explorer. Sculpted icebergs near the Western Antarctic Peninsula. the Elysium Expedition, a geoscience research mission to Antarctica – where The AAPG EXPLORER (ISSN 0195-2986) is published monthly for members. Published at AAPG headquarters, 1444 S. Boulder Ave., P.O. Box 979, Tulsa, Okla. 74101, (918) 584-2555. e-mail address: [email protected]. Periodicals postage paid at Tulsa, Okla., and at additional mailing offices. Printed in the U.S.A. Note to members: $6 of annual dues pays for one sights like these were a common year’s subscription to the EXPLORER. Airmail service for members: $55. Subscription rates for non-members: $75 for 12 issues; add $72 for airmail service. Advertising rates: Contact bonus found throughout the trek. Story Brenda Merideth, AAPG headquarters. Subscriptions: Contact Veta McCoy, AAPG headquarters. Unsolicited manuscripts, photographs and videos must be accompanied by a stamped, self-addressed envelope to ensure return. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) does not endorse or recommend any products or services that may be cited, used or on page 12. discussed in AAPG publications or in presentations at events associated with AAPG. Copyright 2011 by the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved. POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to AAPG EXPLORER, P.O. Box 979, Tulsa, Okla. 74101. Canada Publication Agreement Number 40063731 Return undeliverable Canadian Vol. 32, No. 1 Vol. address to: Station A, P.O. Box 54 • Windsor, ON N9A 6J5 • E-mail: [email protected] WWW.AAPG.ORG JANUARY 2011 3 Editor’s note: The 2010 top discoveries list and analysis are provided by Ken White, senior editor of the IHS International Oil Letter. EXPLORERAAPG The Year of Macondo Brazil Discoveries Set 2010 Pace By KEN WHITE t would appear the industry has gas, five were in Brazil. But Petrobras did emerged strongly from the recession Notable Discoveries of 2010 not have it all its own way though, with Iproblems of the previous year, with Country Operator Well name Location OGX Petroleo e Gas Ltda. accounting for 2010 seeing a determined move into Brazil Petrobras Libra Santos Basin – Offshore Oil three of these. unconventionals, new and exciting plays Nonetheless, it is Petrobras that emerging – particularly off East Africa – Brazil Petrobras Franco Santos Basin – Offshore Oil claims the honors for the year’s biggest multi-billion dollar deals being plentiful Brazil OGX Waimea Campos Basin – Offshore
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