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Toward a New Era in Tunisian Politics: 2014 Parliamentary Elections

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Toward a New Era in Tunisian Politics: 2014 Parliamentary Elections ORSAM REVIEW OF REGIONAL AFFAIRS No.14, OCTOBER 2014 TOWARD A NEW Era IN TUNISIAN POLITICS: 2014 PARLIAMEntary ELECTIONS Nebahat Tanrıverdi YAŞAR Nebahat Tanrıverdi Yaşar is an assistant researcher at ORSAM since 2010. She This fall Tunisians will go to the polls for parliamentary and has been focusing on Egypt, Libya presidential elections which will end the three-year transition and Tunisia, in particular Arab Spring and transformation processes. She period. Tunisia will take an important step forward in the de- completed his undergraduate degree mocratization process with these elections. This study covers in international relations at Hacettepe observations and analysis on the new political map in Tuni- University and her master’s degree in The Middle East Studies at Middle sia which will emerge after parliamentary elections. In this East Technical University. Her master’s context, firstly the electoral system and procedures adopted thesis was entitled “Reconsidering for the 2014 parliamentary elections will be explained. Then, Durability of Authoritarian Regime and Possibilities of Democratization parties and coalitions which are expected to achieve consid- in Tunisia”. She is currently a doctoral erable success as well as experience a large loss compared to student at the International Relations Department of the Middle East Technical the previous election will be examined. Finally, expectations University. and assessments will be discussed. TOWARD A NEW ERA IN TUNISIAN POLITICS: 2014 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS ince 2011, Tunisia is un- structural reforms in the econo- dergoing a transforma- my and state institutions in the Stion process, which was coming period. triggered by the street demon- strations. The second parlia- Electoral System and mentary elections that will take Regulations place since Ben Ali’s removal, namely the 2014 Parliamentary In Tunisia, approval of the Elections in Tunisia represents draft constitution on 27 Janu- an important political thresh- ary 2014 by National Constit- old in terms of consolidation uent Assembly (NCA) paved of democratic procedures as the way for parliamentary elec- political norms. Elections in tions agreed to be held within 2011 launched the transitional 2014. NCA approved the new period to ensure the new polit- electoral law by a vote of 132 ical order in the country. 2014 to 11 on 29 April 2014.1 On 23 parliamentary elections will June 2014, National Consti- end this transitional period and tutional Assembly decided to an important step towards the hold presidential elections on normalization of the new sys- 23 November 2014 and parlia- tem will be taken. Also Tunisia mentary elections on 26 Octo- will take a vital step forward in ber 2014.2 the democratization process by performing these elections. The new parliament, government and president will encounter many challenges on the way of democratization. The most im- portant challenge is to resolve economic, social and political conflicts without falling in the trap of political polarization in order to secure Tunisians com- mitment to democratization. Furthermore, Tunisian politi- cians have to implement deep 2 ORSAM REVIEW OF REGIONAL AFFAIRS NO.14, OCTOBER 2014 The electoral law stipulates from 27 electoral districts in the system and regulations of Tunisia and 18 deputies from upcoming parliamentary and 6 electoral districts abroad. 21 presidential elections in the governorates will serve as one country. The electoral law ad- district while the rest, namely opted a party-list proportional Nabeul, Sfax, and Tunis, di- representation for parliamen- vided into two electoral dis- tary elections to be held on tricts. The electoral districts in The second 26 October 2014. 3 This sys- abroad consists of France (2), tem and regulations to be fol- Germany, Italy, North Ameri- parliamentary lowed in this election to elect ca and rest of the Europe, and elections that 214-member parliament is very Arab world. will take place closely similar to the system As in the 2011 parliamenta- since Ben used to elect NCA members in ry elections, Hare Quota (Sim- Ali’s removal, 4 2011. Voting process will take ple quota) system will be im- namely the 2014 place in one round, and each plemented again. 7 “The highest Parliamentary voter will chose a single list. remaining (largest remainder) Elections The campaign period for par- method” will be applied for in Tunisia liamentary elections officially fractional remainders. Hare represents began on 4 October 2014 and Quota System with largest an important this period will end on 24 Octo- remainder prevents well-per- political ber 2014. Voting process within formed party from gaining the country will be taking place threshold extra seats, though sustains ad- in terms of on 26 October and abroad on vantages to small parties and consolidation 24-26 October 2014. ISIE, Tu- independent candidates; and nisian electoral commission is increases the numbers of dif- of democratic obligated to announce prelim- ferent parties, coalitions and procedures as inary results until 30 October independents in the parliament. political norms. 2014 and official results until This system paved the way for 5 24 November 2014. the representation of several Voting process will take small parties in the 2011 elec- place in 33 electoral districts-27 tions, but also prevented Nah- in Tunisia and 6 for Tunisians da, which collected the highest living abroad- in total. 6 Tuni- percentage of votes, to form a sians will elect 199 deputies government alone. 3 TOWARD A NEW ERA IN TUNISIAN POLITICS: 2014 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS In the parliamentary elec- liamentary elections across the tions, a total of 15,652 can- country. 11 didates will compete for 217 seats across the country. 8 The Outstanding Parties and electoral lists of nation-wide Coalitions parties, local-scale parties, co- alition of smaller parties and Before examining the predic- independent candidates has tions on October 2014 Parli- reached 1,218. 9 However, a amentary Elections, this part significant portion of the elec- evaluates the political parties toral lists belongs to small and and coalitions that might have / or local scale parties and inde- relative success or rapid failu- pendent candidates. Especially, res by considering their politi- it is noteworthy that the num- cal histories, advantages/disad- ber of independents increases vantages and electoral lists. in economically less developed provinces of southern and cen- Nahda - Renaissance tral Tunisia, where the 2011 Party uprisings emerged. 10 349 lists of independent candidates, 729 In the new political era, begin- party lists and 140 coalition ning with the end of Ben Ali’s lists will participate to the par- rule, Nahda, which has been 4 ORSAM REVIEW OF REGIONAL AFFAIRS NO.14, OCTOBER 2014 the most widely spoken and in 1989 elections.14 This elec- discussed political actor, is the toral success made Nahda party most organized party with its the largest opposition bloc. expanded and well-structured However, numerous members party organization. The party of Nahda were arrested and originated from the Quranic its leader Rashid Ghannouchi Preservation Society which ai- went to exile following the ele- med to adopt the Arab and Tu- ctoral success.15 Ghannouchi nisian identity and financed by continued political activities in the state in 1970s. 12 The party’s London and returned to Tunisia founder Rashid Ghannouchi on 30 January 2011. Although and Abdulfattah Mouru began Nahda Party emerged to spre- their political carriers in Qura- ad an Islamic way of life at the Nahda gives a nic Preservation Society, which beginning, today it stands on clear message provided them with the ability “Western-style conservative that it does to appeal to a wide audience party” line. not want to and thus an important social In 2011 elections, Nahda occupy all the base in a very short time. In won 89 seats in NCA by taking political posts 1978, Quranic Preservation So- 54.3% of the total votes across and is open to ciety was transformed into the the country.16 Despite the fact negotiation. Islamic Tendency Movement. that Nahda was the winner of 13 With the short-term relative the election, the party could not liberalization following the re- reached the quorum to form a moval of Bourguiba by Zine El government alone, so Nahda Abidine Ben Ali with a “blood- formed a coalition with the less coup” in 1978; the Islamic center-left party ,Republican Tendency Movement formed Congress Party (CPR) and left Nahda Party, but could not be party Ettakatol. The troika co- accepted legally by the Tunisi- alition formed two coalition an authorities until 2011. The governments, one headed by Islamic Tendency Movement, former Prime Ministers Ha- which participated in the elec- madi Jebali and one by Ali tions with independent candi- Laarayedh between December dates, received %30 of votes 2011 and January 2014. These in Tunis, Gabes and Souse as coalition governments had well as %14.6 of general votes 5 TOWARD A NEW ERA IN TUNISIAN POLITICS: 2014 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS confronted a set of challenges It can operate in all electoral from security to political crisis districts. Unlike many other and transferred powers to the parties in Tunisia, Nahda is not government of technocrats in suffering from intra-party ri- accordance with the road map valries, conflicts and fragmen- on January 2014. tation. Nahda, standing on the fo- Electoral lists of Nahda in cus of the praise and criticism 13 electoral districts are head- during the last three years, will ed by former deputies. All elec- run each of electoral districts. toral lists contain 10 former Nahda is one of the rare parties ministers, 6 businessmen, 11 in Tunisia which has the ability lawyers and 6 physicists. In ad- to organize across the country dition, Nahda became the party with its institutional capacity. which gave the most seats in 6 ORSAM REVIEW OF REGIONAL AFFAIRS NO.14, OCTOBER 2014 electoral lists in Tunisia.
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