THE ARAB SPRING IN COMPARATIVE The Strategic Studies Network (SSN), established in 2005, is an initiative of the Near East South Asia (NESA) Center for Strategic Studies. The SSN is a partnership of over seventy institutions drawn primarily from the Middle East, Central Asia, South Asia and Europe, dedicated to the PERSPECTIVE interdisciplinary study of politics, natural resources, economics, diplomacy, and military power. In order to help develop regional solutions to regional problems, the goal of the SSN is to facilitate policy-relevant research and frank and informed dialogue among strategic studies centres on security Senén Florensa, Dtor. challenges facing the region. Comprising 100 institutes from 32 European and South Mediterranean countries, the EuroMeSCo (Euro-Mediterranean Study Commission) network was created in 1996 for the joint and coordinated strengthening of research and debate on politics and security in the Mediterranean. These were considered essential aspects for the achievement of the objectives of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership. EuroMeSCo aims to be a leading forum for the study of Euro-Mediterranean affairs, functioning as a source of analytical expertise. The objectives of the network are to become an instrument for its members to facilitate exchanges, joint initiatives and research activities; to consolidate its influence in policy-making and Euro- Mediterranean policies; and to disseminate the research activities of its institutes amongst SSN-EUROMESCO specialists on Euro-Mediterranean relations, governments and international organisations. JOINT POLICY STUDY The EuroMeSCo work plan includes a research programme with three publication lines (EuroMeSCo Papers, EuroMeSCo Briefs and EuroMeSCo Reports), as well as a series of seminars and workshops on the changing political dynamics of the Mediterranean region. It also includes the organisation of an annual conference and the development of web-based resources to disseminate the work of its institutes and stimulate debate on Euro-Mediterranean affairs. IEMed. European Institute of the Mediterranean Consortium formed by: Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation Government of Catalonia Barcelona City Council President: Artur Mas President of the Government of Catalonia Vice-Presidents: José Manuel García-Margallo Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation Joana Ortega Vice-President of the Government of Catalonia Xavier Trias Mayor of Barcelona Executive President: Senén Florensa Board of Trustees - Business Council: Corporate Sponsors Partner Institutions Fundació Abertis Cambra de Comerç de Barcelona Banc Sabadell ESADE Caixa Bank Foment de Treball Nacional Gas Natural Fenosa IESE Business School Iberia Pimec Manubens Amics de País OHL Port de Barcelona Port de Tarragona Repsol JOINT POLICY STUDY Published by the European Institute of the Mediterranean Director: Senén Florensa Proof-reading: Neil Charlton Layout: Núria Esparza Legal deposit: B 9458-2015 March 2015 The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the author and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the The Strategic Studies Network (SSN) or the European Institute of the Mediterranean. The authors Director: Senén Florensa Executive President, European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) Lead researchers: Benedetta Berti Research Fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and Ben Gurion University, Israel Sven Biscop Director of the Europe in the World Programme, The Royal Institute for International Relations (EGMONT), Belgium Stefan Borg Research Fellow, Swedish Institute of International Affairs (SIIA), Sweden Ahmet Ali Koç Professor, Department of Economics, Senior Researcher and Board Member of the Centre for Economic Research on Mediterranean Countries (CREM), Akdeniz University, Turkey Erwan Lannon Professor in European Law at the Faculty of Law, Ghent University, Belgium M. Anis Salem Director, Development Works International, Egypt Patrycja Sasnal Head of Middle East and North Africa Project, The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), Poland Alfred Tovias Professor, Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations, Israel Contributors: Fouad Ammor Erzsébet N. Rózsa Expert at the Groupement d’Etudes et de Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Foreign Recherches sur la Méditerranée (GERM), Affairs and Trade (IFAT), Hungary Morocco Khaled Sarhan Natasha Banks Strategic Researcher, King Abdullah Academy Masters of International Development for Defence Studies, Jordan graduate, Deakin University, Australia Omar Shaban Silvia Colombo Director, Pal-Think for Strategic Studies, Senior Fellow, Istituto d’Affari Internazionali Palestine (IAI), Italy Eduard Soler i Lecha László Csicsmann Research Coordinator, Associate Professor, Corvinius University of Barcelona Centre for International Affairs Budapest, Hungary (CIDOB), Spain Florence Gaub Tonči Tadić Senior Analyst, European Union Institute for President, Euro-Mediterranean Forum (EMEF), Security Studies (EUISS), France Croatia Ranjit Gupta Susanna Thede Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, India Senior Lecturer, Institute for European Nils-Åke Gustafson Studies, University of Malta, Malta Research Assistant, Institute for European Stefano Maria Torelli Studies, University of Malta, Malta Research Fellow, Italian Institute for Christian Koch International Political Studies (ISPI), Italy Director, Gulf Research Center Foundation, Murat Yeşltaş Switzerland Deputy Director, Center for Middle Eastern Öznur Özdamar Strategic Studies, Sakarya University, Turkey Researcher, Centre for Economic Research on Mediterranean Countries (CREM), Akdeniz University, Turkey CONTENTS The Arab Spring in Comparative Perspective PRESENTATION Senén Florensa. IEMed 7 1 INTERNAL CHANGES IN TRANSITION PROCESSES: WHAT PRIORITIES? 13 1.1. “After the Spring”: State-Building Processes and Institutional Reforms Lead researchers: Fouad Ammor, GERM; Benedetta Berti, INSS 15 1.2. The Role of Religion in Transitional Processes Lead researcher: Patrycja Sasnal, PISM 33 1.3. The Role of Socio-Economic Policies in Arab Spring Countries Lead researchers: Ali Koç, Akdeniz University; Anis Salem, ECFA 53 2 EXTERNAL ACTORS AND REGIONAL INTEGRATION 79 2.1. A New Concept for a New Neighbourhood Lead researchers: Sven Biscop, EGMONT; Stefan Borg, SIIA 81 2.2. EU’s Promotion of Regional and Sub-regional Economic Integration and Cooperation Lead researchers: Alfred Tovias, Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations; Erwan Lannon, University of Ghent 95 Presentation Senén Florensa1 1 Senén Florensa. Executive President, IEMed and President of the Steering Committee, EuroMeSCo. The Arab Spring in Comparative Perspective A few years after the beginning of the so-called Arab Spring, as the processes of transition and the geopolitical balance shifts are fully underway, it is imperative to think about the changes the region is facing and the options ahead. The initial optimism on the democratisation of the Southern Mediterranean region was misplaced, as widespread regional turmoil has brought about very different results in the countries involved. While some are experiencing encouraging processes of transition, others are still trapped in bloodshed and civil war. Tunisia has positively completed its first Parliamentary and Presidential elections following the approval of a new Constitution, while in Syria and Libya violence continues, with tremendous consequences on the populations and undermining peace in the neighbouring countries. The different paths undertaken in the Arab countries since 2011 are indeed a factor of instability, but best practices from the countries in democratic transition represent a positive experience and can be used as examples to shape better policies. Comparative analysis inside and outside the region is useful for tackling vital issues in the transition processes, such as institutional and Security Sector Reform, the relation between religion and the state, and key socio- economic issues. In addition, regional dynamics are fluid. Arab transitions have brought significant change in the political landscape of the Southern Mediterranean region, notwithstanding the fact that new and old actors have to face the rise of the Islamic State and a whole new form of international terrorism. Indeed, many players in the region have perceived the uprisings as an opportunity to expand their political and economic influence in the region. The Gulf countries have notably increased their action in the Middle East and North Africa countries and have been trying to economically and politically influence the events in the region, while Iran is also doing its best to gain leverage from its role in Iraq and the nuclear talks. On the other hand, Egypt’s renewed military-led government has shown its will to return to its role of a regional power, as was evident from Al Sisi’s stance on intervention in Libya. Despite these profound geopolitical transformations, so far there has not been an adequate response providing a more stable political framework to the region. In this heterogeneous panorama, the European Union has been facing enormous challenges. The growing engagement of regional actors, the growing interests in the area of international powers, such as Russia and China, and the flaws in the regional strategy of the United States, have put the European Union in a difficult position in its own changing neighbourhood. The European Commission has highlighted on several occasions that Europe needs to