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The European Brewing Industry in Transition

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The European Brewing Industry in Transition The European brewing industry in transition Dr Ina Verstl Herbert Latz-Weber EFFAT Conference Blankenberge June 2010 Project carried out with the financial support of the European Commission No part of this report may be reproduced without permission Agenda I. The consolidation of retailing II. Globalisation and the imperative of growth III. Brewers in search of growth IV. Europe‟s “big four” brewers V. The global context VI. Europe - The challenges The European Brewing Industry in Transition From gentlemen brewers to … FMCG giants The European Brewing Industry in Transition “Carlsberg is the world‟s fourth largest brewery group. Our ambition is based on one important principle: creating value for our shareholders and all other stakeholders by • Building the fastest growing global beer company • Being a significant player in the markets where we choose to compete.” Carlsberg Group “Strategy“ 2010 The European Brewing Industry in Transition “The goal of Heineken is to grow the business in a sustainable and consistent manner, while constantly improving profitability. The four priorities for action include: 1. to accelerate sustainable top-line growth. 2. to accelerate efficiency and cost reduction. 3. to speed up implementation: we commit to faster decision making and execution. 4. to focus on those markets where we believe we can win.” Heineken “Strategy & Goals“ 2010 The European Brewing Industry in Transition “SABMiller‟s strategic focus is centred on four priorities: 1. Creating a balanced and attractive global spread of businesses 2. Developing strong, relevant brand portfolios in the local market 3. Constantly raising the performance of local businesses 4. Leveraging our global scale.“ SABMiller “Strategic Priorities” 2010 The European Brewing Industry in Transition “AB-InBev‟s shared dream energizes everyone to work in the same direction: to be the Best Beer Company in a Better World. The three long-term objectives of our business are: 1. To deliver volume growth ahead of industry growth. 2. To grow revenue ahead of volumes. 3. To maintain strong financial discipline and ensure that costs remain below inflation.” AB-InBev “Our Dream“ 2010 The European Brewing Industry in Transition “Major brewers hand the future of beer to FMCG experts: There are signs that the future of beer is being handed to a new breed of professional managers with roots not in traditional brewing.” Canadean‟s International Beer Strategy Conference, Amsterdam, May 2010 The European Brewing Industry in Transition I. The consolidation of retailing The European Brewing Industry in Transition While there are some sizeable FMCG companies… Global FMCG Sales, 2009 (USD million) Source: Planet Retail Nestle 99.472 P&G 80.300 JT 66.034 J&J 63.747 Unilever 55.374 Kraft 50.000 PepsiCo 43.232 Imp Tobacco 41.358 InBev 36.758 Coca-Cola Co. 30.990 SAB Miller 26.350 Tyson 25.035 The European Brewing Industry in Transition …the power is very much with the retailers Global FMCG/retail Sales, 2009 ( USD million) Source: Planet Retail Walmart 405.000 Carrefour 119.300 Nestle 99.472 Metro 91.100 Tesco 88.800 Schwarz 81.900 P&G 80.300 Kroger 76.700 Costco 69.900 Aldi 68.700 JT 66.034 Target 63.500 The European Brewing Industry in Transition Brewers try to keep up with the retailers But where are the big brands? Share of Top 10 beer brands (global beer vol) The European Brewing Industry in Transition Share of Top 10 beer brands The European Brewing Industry in Transition Rabobank฀ The European Brewing Industry in Transition … call that “global brands”? Top 10 global brands 2008 Source: Heineken 2009 The European Brewing Industry in Transition II. Globalisation and the imperative of growth - Obeying the whims of finance - Increasing market share - Searching the economies of scale - Cutting costs - Improving the bottom line - Providing shareholder value The European Brewing Industry in Transition Globalisation and consolidation of the brewing industry 1990 – 2010 -The spectre of coca-cola-colonisation has not materialised yet The European Brewing Industry in Transition Rabobank The European Brewing Industry in Transition III. Brewers in search of growth - Volume - Profits Ideal: acquire market dominance in countries with population growth and robust economic prospects The European Brewing Industry in Transition 1. Market dominance secures profits 0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 % South Korea Mexico South Africa Australia Canada Japan France United States Spain Netherlands Poland Italy Czech Republic United Kingdom Russia China Germany Share Top 3 Brewers Share Others The European Brewing Industry in Transition 2. Growth markets please the analysts Source: Heineken 2009 The European Brewing Industry in Transition … but there is growth and GROWTH Source: Heineken 2009 Source: SABMiller 2010 The European Brewing Industry in Transition 3. Seeking premium brand growth Volumes CAGR 2000- CAGR 2005- 2005 mio hl 2005 2010E Total market 1580 2.7% 2.0% Non premium 1436 2.6% 1.7% All premium 144 4.1% 4.8% International 107 6.4% 5.8% premium Source: Company data The European Brewing Industry in Transition … but where are the big profits? Source: IVR The European Brewing Industry in Transition IV. Europe‟s “big four” brewers Carlsberg - A Russian brewer with European subsidiaries Heineken - The last Mohicans SABMiller - The Graham show AB-InBev - The bankers that sell beer The European Brewing Industry in Transition Carlsberg – a Russian brewer with European subsidiaries - 1999: The fear of getting sidelined The European Brewing Industry in Transition The European Brewing Industry in Transition Carlsberg – Going east - Joint venture with Norway‟s Orkla 2001 - Takeover of Scottish & Newcastle 2007/2008 The European Brewing Industry in Transition Dependency on Russia for profits and Asia for volume growth The European Brewing Industry in Transition Carlsberg Germany – Transformation into a FMCG company Focus on 5 brands Source: Carlsberg Germany 2010 The European Brewing Industry in Transition Carlsberg Germany – Transformation into a FMCG company Focus on core market Source: Carlsberg Germany 2010 The European Brewing Industry in Transition Carlsberg Germany – Transformation into a FMCG company Focus on risk-free on-trade Source: Carlsberg Germany 2010 The European Brewing Industry in Transition Heineken – the last Mohicans After relying on beer exports for growth, Heineken changed track - 2003: BBAG - 2008: S&N - 2010: FEMSA Cerveza The European Brewing Industry in Transition Heineken still depends on mature western European markets for profits Source: Heineken 2009 The European Brewing Industry in Transition SABMiller – the Graham show Graham Mackay: longest serving CEO in the brewing industry SAB in 1994: one market, no international exports, no global brand The European Brewing Industry in Transition SABMiller – the Graham show - 1994: First free elections in South Africa - 1994: Tanzania, Zambia, Mozambique, China - 1995: Poland - 1996: Romania - 1998: Russia (build Kaluga Brewery) - 1999: Czech Republic (Pilsner Urquell) + LSE listing - 2000: India - 2002: USA (Miller Brewing) - 2003: Italy (Birra Peroni) - 2005: Colombia (Bavaria) - 2008: USA (MillerCoors joint venture) - 2008: Netherlands (Grolsch) The European Brewing Industry in Transition In less than 18 years SABMiller became a global force Source: SABMiller 2010 The European Brewing Industry in Transition SABMiller earns 51 % of profits in only two markets (South Africa and Latin America) Source: SABMiller 2010 The European Brewing Industry in Transition AB-InBev – The bankers that sell beer The “old” Interbrew The European Brewing Industry in Transition The “old” Interbrew - 1996: Labatt (Canada) - 2000: Bass/Whitbred (UK) - 2001: Beck‟s/Diebels (Germany) - 2003: Combination with AmBev (Brazil) The European Brewing Industry in Transition The transformation to AB-InBev – The bankers that sell beer -2008: Anheuser-Busch (USA) With AmBev and Anheuser-Busch: AB-InBev dominates the world‟s two most profitable beer markets The European Brewing Industry in Transition AB-InBev – The Brazilians‟ mind-set Source: AmBev 2009 The European Brewing Industry in Transition AB-InBev – the Brazilians‟ mindset Source: AmBev 2009 The European Brewing Industry in Transition Brazil – Market shares (%) Brewer 2008 AmBev 67.7 Schincariol 12.5 Petropolis 9.3 Kaiser/FEMSA (Heineken) 7.8 Others 2.7 100.0 Source: AB-InBev/Plato Logic 2009 The European Brewing Industry in Transition Market dominance secures profitability Source: AmBev 2009 The European Brewing Industry in Transition V. The global context Global top 10 countries Beer production 1999 – 2008 (mio hl) 1999 2008 ‏ 1 China 205 410 2 USA 232 232 3 Russia 45 114 4 Brazil 80 106 5 Germany 113 103 6 Mexico 57 82 7 Japan 71 61 8 UK 58 49 9 Poland 22 36 10 Spain 26 33 Source: Hansmaennel/Barth Report 2009 The European Brewing Industry in Transition Global top 10 countries % share of world beer production 1999 2008 1 China 16.2 21.6 2 USA 17.1 13.3 3 Russia 4.0 6.2 4 Brazil 6.0 5.9 5 Germany 7.5 5.8 6 Mexico 3.7 3.8 7 Japan 5.2 3.1 8 UK 4.3 2.6 9 Poland 1.8 1.9 10 Spain 2.1 1.8 Source: Hansmaennel/Barth Report 2009 The European Brewing Industry in Transition North & Central America Source: Hansmaennel/Barth Report 2009 The European Brewing Industry in Transition The U.S. beer market – Mature yet highly profitable - Beer profit pool (EBIT): USD 4.3 bn (2007) - MillerCoors + AB-InBev: 80 percent market share - 1500 craft brewers but only 5 percent market share - Highly regulated: Three Tier System
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