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Oliver Johannes Ebneth

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Oliver Johannes Ebneth OLIVER JOHANNES EBNETH INTERNATIONALISIERUNG UND UNTERNEHMENSERFOLG BÖRSENNOTIERTER BRAUKONZERNE Göttingen, im Mai 2006 VORWORT Zu Beginn dieser Arbeit danke ich ganz herzlich meinem Doktorvater und akademischen Lehrer, Herrn Univ.-Prof. Dr. Ludwig Theuvsen für die Überlassung dieses Themas und die inhaltliche Betreuung meiner Dissertation. Während dieser Zeit ermöglichte mir Ludwig Theuvsen nicht nur meine zahlreichen Auslandsprojekte und Konferenzreisen, sondern stand mir stets in freundschaftlicher Weise mit Rat und Tat zur Seite. Gut drei Jahre Doktorarbeit bedeuten viel ‚Blut, Schweiß und Tränen’, doch gab es auch zahlreiche unvergessliche Stunden und Erlebnisse, die ich nicht missen möchte. Mein Dank gilt deshalb allen Mitarbeitern des Instituts für Agrarökonomie sowie meinen Freunden und Kollegen vom Lehrstuhl für Betriebswirtschaftslehre des Agribusiness. Besonderer Dank gilt auch Herrn Marc Koster, Director Corporate Business Development bei Heineken International, der mir eine zweimalige Projektmitarbeit im Heineken Headoffice in Amsterdam ermöglichte. Auch danke ich Berend Odink, mit dem ich viele Stunden bei Bilanzanalyse und Unternehmensbewertung internationaler Braukonzerne verbrachte. Diese Arbeit widme ich meinen Eltern, die mir das Studium ermöglichten, eine glückliche Kindheit und Jugend in Ostbayern schenkten und stets alles gaben was in ihrer Kraft lag, kurz: ihre ganz Liebe. Göttingen, 24. Mai 2006 Oliver Johannes Ebneth GLIEDERUNG Seite: ABSTRACT 5 EINLEITUNG Internationalisierung und Unternehmenserfolg in der Weltbraubranche 7 KAPITEL I Der Weltbiermarkt: Globalisierung einer Branche 35 I.1 Globalization of the Brewing Industry. Trends, Perspectives and Strategies 36 I.2 Main West European Beer Markets at a Glance 54 I.3 Review of the Central & Eastern European Beer Markets 64 I.4 Review of the Chinese Brewing Sector 73 I.5 Recent Developments in Southern American Beer Markets 81 I.6 Overview over Northern American Beer Markets 90 KAPITEL II Internationalisierung führender Braukonzerne 100 II.1 Exploring Globalization in the Brewing Industry. Internationalization Strategies of World-wide Leading Brewers 101 II.2 Konzentrationstempo. Internationalisierung und Erfolg europäischer Braukonzerne 107 KAPITEL III Internationalisierung und Unternehmenserfolg: Diskussion und Operationalisierung verschiedener Messkonzepte 117 III.1 Accelerating Growth Opportunities. Profit Pools in the World Brewing Industry 118 III.2 Growth and Profit Opportunities. Analyzing the World Brewing Industry 128 III.3 Does Internationalization Pay Off? Accounting-Based Evaluation of M&As of European Brewers 134 III.4 Large Mergers and Acquisitions of European Brewing Groups. Event Study Evidence on Value Creation 140 III.5 Multinationality and Financial Performance. Findings from a Set of Listed Brewing Groups 169 III.6 The Relationship between Business Internationalization and Financial Performance of Listed Brewing Groups 191 III.7 Performance and Internationalization. A Comparison of Capital Market-Based and Accounting-Based Analysis 248 3 KAPITEL IV Exkurs: Internationalisierung anderer Subsektoren des Agribusiness 303 IV.1 Internationalization of Cooperatives in the Agribusiness. Concepts of Measurement and their Application 304 IV.2 Internationalisierung europäischer Molkereigenossenschaften 327 IV.3 Internationalization and Corporate Success. Empirical Evidence from the European Dairy Sector 338 FAZIT Entwicklung und Ausblick einer sich konsolidierenden Branche 359 ANHANG Publikationen und Konferenzteilnahmen 372 Lebenslauf 376 Erklärungen 378 4 ABSTRACT This thesis strives to analyze the major developments and trends in the world beer industry over the last decade that transformed it from the local market it was into a global one. This development arose from the fact that larger brewers faced low prospects for volume growth in developed markets leading them to seek growth either via acquisition of other brewers, by aggressive participation in developing markets or both. Thus, in the brewing industry of re- cent years, acquisitions have been the growing trend, providing the opportunity for firms to markedly enhance their degree of internationalization and their market share through diverse one-off deals. Recent spectacular acquisitions in the brewing industry have highlighted the apparent urgency of the major brewers to build scale and improve their strategic positioning. But, according to various studies on other industries, most cross-border deals did not meet shareholders’ expectations. Assessing the corporate success and the financial performance of the latest Mergers & Acquisitions in the brewing sector, therefore, deserves more attention. Where methodology is concerned, this thesis sheds some empirical light on the relationship between degree of internationalization and financial performance for a sample of the largest stock-listed brewing groups around the globe. This investigation is innovative in two ways. First, as most studies in economics and international management focus on the financial ser- vice and manufacturing industries, there is hardly any literature at all about internationalizing agribusiness, food processing or consumer goods companies. Second, this thesis does not con- fine itself to common accounting-based procedures as have the studies by the bulk of previous scholars; instead, it will expand scientific knowledge to include capital-market–oriented measurements. The use of event study methodology is discussed as a potentially important and useful way to assess the dynamic effects of mergers and acquisitions on the brewing scene. The event study data employed in the empirical analysis are daily stock returns for the brewing groups involved in 34 Mergers & Acquisitions between March 2000 and July 2005. The accounting-based examination employs financial data provided in the 18 largest brewing groups’ annual reports for the eight financial years from 1998 to 2005. 5 The outcomes of both methodologies adopted in this thesis are in line with the existing litera- ture on internationalization-performance studies in the finance and economic literature. In- deed, there are some brewers whose Mergers & Acquisitions transactions did not meet share- holder’s expectations. But at the same time, many acquisitions have created significant value for some of the fastest growing brewers in the sample. Furthermore, there seems to be a clear link between the speed of external growth and a significant boost in brewer’s profitability. Brewing groups show substantial improvement in both their profitability ratios following this period of intensive external growth. Regarding the decomposition of the performance indica- tors, this work is new and adds details to knowledge about the internationalization- performance relationship. Furthermore, it discusses the development of the brewers’ market capitalization, which is of paramount importance and represents the core element of a brewing group’s sustained corporate success. The comparison of capital-market–based analysis with accounting-based measures provides evidence supporting the belief that these two methods should not be seen as alternative ways to evaluate performance, but as complementary ones. A central managerial implication looks apparent as brewing executives face a new paradigm: They have to grow faster than the market in terms of market capitalization and enterprise valuation, whether to become a global company or to remain one. Otherwise, they run the risk of losing their independence and being acquired by more successful brewing groups. Heine- ken, SABMiller and InBev in particular have proven how effective M&A transactions can contribute to satisfying this new paradigm. In the last chapter of this thesis, the investigation is amended by going beyond the brewing industry. Like brewing groups, cooperatives in agribusiness are increasingly confronted with the challenges of internationalizing food markets. This development has also affected meat and dairy cooperatives, which are being forced to become more competitive by joining forces through international mergers and acquisitions. The mode and amount of the cooperatives’ international activities is determined and their financial performance assessed by applying balance sheet analysis. The investigation ends with a discussion of why German cooperatives are noticeably less internationalized and show weaker financial performance than their Euro- pean competitors. The managerial implications are obvious: German cooperatives in the meat and dairy industries have to solve their financial problems and redesign their outdated corpo- rate governance mechanisms by professionalizing their management structures. 6 EINLEITUNG INTERNATIONALISIERUNG UND UNTERNEHMENSERFOLG IN DER WELTBRAUBRANCHE 7 EINLEITUNG Internationalisierung und Unternehmenserfolg in der Weltbraubranche INTERNATIONALISIERUNG UND UNTERNEHMENSERFOLG IN DER WELTBRAUBRANCHE ‚Es gibt nichts Praktischeres als eine gute Theorie’ Immanuel Kant Seit Ende der 1990er Jahre hat das Phänomen der Globalisierung der Wirtschaftswelt zuneh- mend auch eine Branche ergriffen, die in der wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Literatur bisher kaum Beachtung fand: Die Brauindustrie. Diese verzeichnete im globalen Kontext in den ver- gangenen Jahren ein kaum vorherzusehendes Wachstum. Parallel dazu haben sich weltweit große multinational tätige börsennotierte Braukonzerne herausgebildet, die durch zahlreiche M&A-Transaktionen als Treiber hinter diesem Internationalisierungsprozess
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