Anticipating Criminal Behaviour
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Anticipating criminal behaviour USING THE NARRATIVE IN CRIME-RELATED DATA Peter A.M.G. de Kock ANTICIPATING CRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR USING THE NARRATIVE IN CRIME-RELATED DATA Wer nicht von dreitausend Jahren sich weiß Rechenschaft zu geben, bleib im Dunkel unerfahren, mag von Tag zu Tage leben. (He who cannot draw on three thousand years, is living from hand to mouth) J.W. von Goethe Peter A. M. G. de Kock ANTICIPATING CRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR USING THE NARRATIVE IN CRIME-RELATED DATA PROEFSCHRIFT ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan Tilburg University, op gezag van de rector magnificus, prof. dr. Ph. Eijlander, in het openbaar te verdedigen ten overstaan van een door het college voor promoties aangewezen commissie in de aula van de Universiteit op 10 September 2014 door Peter A.M.G. de Kock geboren op 20 juni 1967 te Maastricht, Nederland Promotores: Prof. dr. H.J. van den Herik Prof. dr. ir. J.C. Scholtes Copromotor: Dr. ing P.H.M. Spronck Beoordelingscommissie Prof. dr. A. Plaat Prof. dr. E.O. Postma Prof. mr. T.A. de Roos Prof. dr. B.A. de Graaf (Beatrice) Prof. dr. B.G.J. de Graaff (Bob) SIKS Dissertation Series No. XXXXX The research reported in this thesis has been carried out under the auspices of SIKS, the Dutch Research School for Information and Knowledge Systems. TiCC Ph.D. Series No. XXXXX ISBN: XXXXX Copyright © 2014 by Peter A.M.G. de Kock (www.dekock.pe) Printed by XXXXX Published by XXXXX Thesis statistics: 106,990 words; 365 Pages; 74 figures and tables; 7 boxes. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronically, mechanically, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior permission of the author. Preface This thesis is the result of a rather unorthodox combination of fine art, law enforcement, and science. The enumeration of these disciplines reflects the development of my scientific career. In 1990, as a student at the Film Academy of the Amsterdam School of the Arts, I became engaged in a dispute with one of my lecturers over the metaphysical quality of narratives. He claimed that any imaginable narrative could be created by a handful of scenario components, and I was challenged to compile a limitative list of these components from of all the narratives that were to be studied during the four-year course. In 2007, after a career as filmmaker and director of documentary films that spanned more than fifteen years, I applied for a Master of Criminal Investigation. To complete my study, I wrote a master thesis on the concept of applying a narrative approach (based on the aforementioned scenario components) to anticipate terrorist attacks. The publication of this dissertation resulted in an invitation by the Royal and Diplomatic Protection Service (DB&B) of the Dutch National Police1, to pursue the proposed concept in operational and real-life situations. As the team leader of a covert unit, I was able to introduce an innovative method of close protection. Instead of re-acting to the moves of our adversaries and trying to withstand an attack, we predicted their moves and tried to prevent an attack. First, we analysed historical data to acquire “the narrative” of our adversaries. Next, we created a “counter-narrative” that would alter the developments to our benefit. Once we had defined the narratives in detail, we designed covert operations to intervene accordingly. The results of our team were thought provoking and prompted the interest of counter-terrorism and intelligence organisations. I was invited to demonstrate the method of operation to prominent members of Dutch Parliament and the Ministry of Security and Justice. 1 During the realisation of this Ph.D. research, the regional police forces of the Netherlands were incorporated into one national police force. In this thesis we consistently use the current nomenclature. i Following one of these presentations, I was offered the opportunity to pursue the use of scenarios to anticipate crime, in a Ph.D. study at Tilburg University. The idea to converge art, law enforcement, and science in the development of a new scenario model was a thrilling perspective and became the start of a journey that ends here, with the completion of this thesis. Without the help of many organisations and people, this thesis would not have been possible. Here, I would like to take the opportunity to express my gratitude to them. First and foremost, I would like to thank my supervisors for their support and detailed advice during this Ph.D. research. I have had the honour to receive guidance from Jaap van den Herik, Jan Scholtes, and Pieter Spronck. Their support and belief in me have been a crucial factor in the completion of this thesis. Furthermore, I would like to extend my gratitude towards the following organisations. Tilburg University for granting me the opportunity to pursue my Ph.D. study. The Graduate School of Tilburg School of Humanities (TSH), and the Tilburg centre for Cognition and Communication (TiCC) for receiving me with hospitality, and for allowing me to work with their students. I would like to thank Utrecht University, in particular the department of History of International Relations, for entrusting me a talented Master student. Furthermore, I owe gratitude towards ZyLAB for their guidance and assistance in discovering the potential of text mining. Finally, I would like to thank The National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism, and the International Centre for Counter- Terrorism for their support. Additionally, I would like to thank three students whose contributions have proven to be a valuable part of this thesis: Liesbeth van der Heide, Linda Stege and Sophie Bressers. ii My Ph.D. research has been accompanied by an advisory board, which I wish to thank for their critical and supporting advice. - Ms. P.M. Zorko (Chief Constable of Landelijke Eenheid of the Nationale politie) - Mr. A.H. van Wijk LLM (College van procureurs-generaal) - Ms. H. van Mansfeld (Deputy director of Algemene Inlichtingen- en Veiligheids-dienst (AIVD)) - Mr. E.C. Mac Gillavry LLM (Deputy director of Wetenschappelijk Bureau van het Openbaar Ministerie) - Mr. E.S.M. Akerboom (Secretary-general of Ministerie van Defensie), who I would like to thank in particular, as he was (in his capacity of Chair of the NCTv) one of the first people to recognise potential in my attempts to thwart an attack on his life during the exercise PH32. Moreover, I would like to thank the members of my thesis committee, for their preparedness to read this thesis and to assess it to the best of their abilities: Prof. dr. A. Plaat, Prof. dr. E.O. Postma, Prof. mr. T.A. de Roos, Prof. dr. B.A. de Graaf (Beatrice), and Prof. dr. B.G.J. de Graaff (Bob). Most importantly, I would like to thank my employer, the Landelijke Eenheid of the Nationale Politie for allowing me the professional space to come up with new and unusual ideas. In particular, I would like to thank Mr. R.G.C. Bik (Plaatsver-vangend korpschef Nationale Politie) and Ms. P.M. Zorko, (Politiechef Landelijke Eenheid) on a personal level, for supporting me on this journey. Apart from the organisations and people mentioned in this section, there is a number of people whose support has been essential in the completion of this thesis. Because my appreciation for them transcends the merits of a preface, I have dedicated a special section to their acknowledgements (see page 343). Peter de Kock Amsterdam, 2014. 2 PH3 refers to a series of red-team exercises that were designed by the DB&B of the Dutch National police. iii iv Table of contents Preface i Table of contents v List of abbreviations xi List of definitions xiii List of illustrations xiv List of boxes xvii ONE Finding the narrative 19 1.1 Anticipating criminal behaviour 22 1.2 Research objective 23 1.3 Scientific relevance 24 1.4 Restrictions of research 25 1.4.1 The object of inquiry 26 1.4.2 The time of inquiry 26 1.4.3 The scale of inquiry 26 1.4.4 The classification of information 26 1.5 Problem statement and research questions 27 1.5.1 Problem statement 27 1.5.2 Four research questions 27 1.6 Research methodology 29 1.7 Structure of thesis 31 1.8 Publications related to this research 36 TWO Understanding Crime 39 2.1 Crime 40 2.2 Criminological theories 41 2.2.1 The psychological approach: Control theory 42 2.2.2 The economical approach: Rational choice theory 43 v 2.2.3 The sociological approach: Routine activity theory 44 2.2.4 Section conclusion 45 2.3 The crime – terrorism nexus 46 2.3.1 Organised crime 47 2.3.2 Terrorism 48 2.3.3 Organised crime – terrorism 52 2.4 Lone operators 54 2.5 Organisational learning 57 2.5.1 Learn, adapt, and anticipate 58 2.5.2 Accumulation, articulation, and codification 59 2.5.3 Organisational learning and anticipating criminal behaviour 61 2.6 Chapter summary 63 THREE Using scenarios 65 3.1 Terminology 67 3.1.1 Scenario 68 3.1.2 Scenario model 69 3.1.3 Scenario learning 69 3.1.4 Scenario planning 70 3.2 Scenario planning 72 3.2.1 Managing uncertainties 72 3.2.2 The role of creativity 74 3.3 An effective scenario model 76 3.4 Scenario development 78 3.4.1 A typology of approaches 78 3.4.2 Two examples 81 3.5 Creative scenarios 83 3.6 Proactive models in law enforcement 85 3.6.1 Reactive use 86 3.6.2 Proactive use 88 vi 3.7 Limitations of scenarios 93 3.7.1 Limited availability of information 93 3.7.2 Oversimplification 94 3.7.3 Inaccurate data 95 3.8 Answer to research question 1 95 FOUR Modelling criminal behaviour: ESC12 99 4.1 A choreographed