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Caucasus 2025: a Vision P Conference Series 01.2012 - Newidea 27 - 2013 GCSP avenue de la Paix 7bis Caucasus 2025: A Vision P. O. Box 1295 CH - 1211 Geneva 1 T + 41 22 906 16 00 F + 41 22 906 16 49 [email protected] Foreword by Ambassador www.gcsp.ch Heidi Tagliavini Alain Guidetti Katya Palazzolo Impartial, Inclusive, Influential The opinions and views expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the position of the Swiss authorities or the Geneva Centre for Security Policy. Copyright © Geneva Centre for Security Policy, 2013 Caucasus 2025: A Vision Foreword by Ambassador Heidi Tagliavini Alain Guidetti Katya Palazzolo GCSP Geneva Papers — Conferences Series n° 27, June 2013 The Geneva Centre for Security Policy The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) is an international training centre for security policy based in Geneva. An international foundation with over 40 member states, it offers courses for civil servants, diplomats and military officers from all over the world. Through research, workshops and conferences it provides an internationally recognized forum for dialogue on timely issues relating to security and peace. The Geneva Papers and l’Esprit de Genève With its vocation for peace, Geneva is the city where international organizations, NGOs, and the academic community, working together, have the possibility of creating the essential conditions for debate and concrete action. The Geneva Papers intend to serve the same goal by promoting a platform for constructive and substantive dialogue. Geneva Papers – Conference Series The Geneva Papers – Conference Series was launched in 2008 with the purpose of reflecting on the main issues and debates of events organized by the GCSP. It complements the Geneva Papers – Research Series (launched in 2011), whose purpose is to analyse international security issues that are relevant to GCSP training. The Geneva Papers – Conference Series seeks to summarize and analyse interna- tional security issues discussed in conferences or workshops organized by the GCSP. It promotes dialogue on cutting-edge security topics, such as the globaliza- tion of security, new threats to international security, conflict trends and conflict management, transatlantic and European security, the role of international insti- tutions in security governance, and human security. These issues are explored through the multiple viewpoints and areas of expertise represented in GCSP con- ference proceedings and by speaker presentations. Drafts of the Geneva Papers – Conference Series are reviewed by the GCSP Review Committee. All Geneva Papers are available online, at www.gcsp.ch/Resources-Publica- tions/Publications For further information, please contact : [email protected] Copyright © Geneva Centre for Security Policy, 2013 Table of Contents Acknowledgements ...............................................................................................4 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 5 Foreword: On the difficulty to Make Peace ......................................................... 5 Part I: Cacasus 2025 - A Vision ............................................................................15 From status quo to cooperation .................................................................15 The internantional context and the role of the EU ....................................16 The conflict settlement processes ..............................................................18 The local dimension ...................................................................................19 Georgia, the new factor .............................................................................21 Part II: The Way Forward ....................................................................................23 Trans-border trade and economic cooperation ..........................................23 Trans-border cooperation in energy and infrastructures ...........................27 Trans-border movements of people and dialogue promotion ...................28 Regional level .............................................................................................29 Bilateral level .............................................................................................29 International level ......................................................................................30 Conclusion .................................................................................................32 Programme of the Seminar ................................................................................33 Geneva Papers – Conference Series ....................................................................34 GCSP Geneva Papers — Conferences Series n°27 3 Acknowledgements The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) gratefully acknowledges the finan- cial support of the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA), which made the seminar on the South Caucasus held in November 2012 and this report possible. The rapporteurs are likewise indebted to Ambassador Heidi Tagliavini, a renowned Swiss diplomat and expert on conflicts and conflict resolution with more than 15 years of engagement with the region, for the Foreword to this report. Her insightful comments on the future of the South Caucasus region set the tone for the seminar, which generated rich discussions and ideas. A note of gratitude is also extended to Dr Natalia Mirimanova, Mr Thomas de Waal and Dr Vicken Cheterian for their invaluable contribution to the success of the seminar. Lastly, special thanks go to the seminar participants who submitted very stimulating written contributions as a basis for the discussions, and demon strated, through their engagement, the merits of their undertaking. 4 GCSP Geneva Papers — Conferences Series n° 27 Introduction Over 20 years after the end of the Cold War, the South Caucasus region remains embroiled in both internal and international conflicts, with no end in sight in either case. Strikingly, even though South Caucasian societies have developed and opened up to the world, the political configuration of the region still reflects the stigma of the first years of post-Soviet independence – when ethnic and political divides emerged or re-emerged, creating a lasting pattern of insecurity and instability. The high hopes for the region that occasionally emerged from the intensive, multi-faceted diplomatic efforts deployed since the early 1990s ultimately failed to produce any clear outcomes. Negotiation processes remain stymied and prospects for new developments are currently limited, while suspicion and distrust continue to undermine relations between states and entities in the region. This complicated situation has a direct negative impact on local populations, who are often constrained by closed borders and front lines that prevent neces- sary communication and interaction. It also hampers the prosperous development of the region and its capacity to find its proper place at the crossroads of Europe, Russia, Central Asia and the Middle East. In this context, it is important to move away from the current political develop- ments in the region and to examine the basic factors that underpin the divides, as well as the essential conditions that would help to create a better environment and pave the way towards a more cooperative, and possibly integrated, region. This can be illustrated by putting forward a vision of the South Caucasus in 2025 that could help shape a possible horizon for the region. But it is also important not to lose sight of the concrete constraints of the current situation. Among the conditions conducive to a better environment, it is crucial for local populations to be able to move beyond political and ethnic divides and reconnect with one another, at least in some aspects of societal and economic life. A great deal of effort has already been made to bridge communi- ties and revive basic patterns of cooperation. However, much remains to be done, despite the political constraints that all too often hamper such endeavours. GCSP Geneva Papers — Conferences Series n°27 5 It is against this backdrop that the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), with the support of the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs of Switzerland, launched an informal dialogue in 2012 between independent experts from all parts of the South Caucasus. This dialogue included not only the three Republics of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia and the regional key players Russia and Turkey, but also Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh.1 The project, called Caucasus 2025: A Vision, features several elements, including analyses, seminars and publications, and may inspire concrete initiatives on the ground. On 15-17 November 2012, the GCSP hosted the first seminar of the project “Caucasus 2025: A Vision” which was held under Chatham House Rule. Twenty- four independent experts from the South Caucasus and the region participated and exchanged views and ideas with three principal aims in mind: 1. To examine current divides in the region and present suggestions for an alternative scenario for the South Caucasus by 2025; 2. To highlight some concrete domestic measures and initiatives that would immediately contribute to promoting regional cooperation and integration in areas such as the free movement of people, dialogue, culture, economy, trade, energy, transport, and the environment; 3. To offer preliminary findings regarding key issues that policymakers should consider in order
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