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Migrationsverkets Novemberprognos 2014 Verksamhets- och kostnadsprognos November 2014 1 SVENSKT MEDBORGARSKAP Prognos Diarienummer Planering och styrning 2014‐11‐04 Dnr 1.1.3‐2014‐5644 Till Justitiedepartementet Verksamhets‐ och kostnadsprognos 2014‐11‐04 Migrationsverket ska redovisa anslagsprognoser för 2014–2018 vid fem tillfällen under året. Prognoserna lämnas i Hermes enligt instruktion från Ekonomistyrningsverket. Vid fyra tillfällen ska prognoserna kommenteras både i förhållande till föregående prognostillfälle och i förhållande till budgeten. Prognosen ska innehålla en analys av vilken verksamhet som kan bedrivas med tillgängliga medel och eventuella skillnader mellan tillgängliga medel och behov av medel ska förklaras. Migrationsverket ska lämna nödvändig information till och inhämta nödvändig information från samtliga berörda myndigheter för att kunna presentera en samlad analys. Prognoskommentarerna lämnas till Justitiedepartementet: Prognos 2 (P2‐14) 4 februari Prognos 3 (P3‐14) 24 april Prognos 4 (P4‐14) 24 juli Prognos 5 (P5‐14) 23 oktober 4 november Enligt regeringsbeslut den 16/10 flyttades tidpunkten för när myndigheterna ska lämna den sista prognosen för året till den 4 november 2014. Migrationsverkets prognos 2014‐11‐04 (P5‐14) 1(63) Innehållsförteckning. 1. Övergripande analys och slutsatser .............................................................................. 2 2. Migrationen till Sverige under prognosperioden ........................................................... 6 2.1 Prognos nya asylsökande 2014‐2015 .......................................................................................... 6 2.1.1 Analys av samverkande faktorer ........................................................................................... 7 2.2 Analys av de största grupperna av asylsökande ........................................................................ 10 2.2.1 Asylsökande från Syrien, Irak och statslösa ........................................................................ 12 2.2.2 Asylsökande från Afghanistan ........................................................................................... 16 2.2.3 Asylsökande från Eritrea ..................................................................................................... 17 2.2.4 Asylsökande från Somalia .................................................................................................. 20 2.2.5 Asylsökande från västra Balkan ......................................................................................... 20 2.3.6 Asylsökande från övriga länder ........................................................................................... 21 2.2.7 Ensamkommande barn och ungdomar ............................................................................... 22 2.3 Antal asylsökande 2016‐2018, möjlig utveckling ....................................................................... 23 2.4 Migrationstrender och påverkan ............................................................................................... 24 3. Verksamhetsbedömningar ........................................................................................ 26 3.1 Förutsättningar och huvudsakliga prioriteringar ....................................................................... 26 3.2 Asylprocessen .......................................................................................................................... 27 3.2.1 Asylprövning i första instans .............................................................................................. 27 3.2.2 Överklagade asylärenden .................................................................................................. 30 3.2.3 Inskrivna i mottagningen ..................................................................................................... 31 3.2.4 Mottagande av ensamkommande barn och ungdomar ...................................................... 35 3.2.5 Bosättning och kommunmottagande ................................................................................. 37 3.2.6 Återvändande .................................................................................................................... 40 3.2.7 Prövning av verkställighetshinder ...................................................................................... 43 3.3 Arbete, besök och bosättning .................................................................................................. 44 3.3.1 Anknytningsärenden .......................................................................................................... 45 3.3.2 Arbetsmarknadsärenden .................................................................................................... 46 3.3.3 Studerandeärenden ........................................................................................................... 47 3.3.4 Passärenden ...................................................................................................................... 48 3.3.5 Besök och viseringsärenden ............................................................................................... 48 3.3.6 EES‐ärenden ...................................................................................................................... 49 3.4 Svenskt medborgarskap .......................................................................................................... 49 4. Ekonomisk prognos ............................................................................................. 50 4.1 Planerings‐ och beräkningsförutsättningar .............................................................................. 50 4.2 Migrationsverkets förvaltningsanslag, anslag 1:1 ...................................................................... 51 4.3 Ersättningar och bostadskostnader, anslag 1:2 ........................................................................ 55 4.4 Övriga anslag ............................................................................................................................ 57 4.4.1 Migrationspolitiska åtgärder, anslag 1:3 .............................................................................. 57 4.4.2 Domstolsprövning i utlänningsärenden, anslag 1:4 ............................................................ 58 4.4.3 Kostnader vid domstolsprövning i utlänningsärenden, anslag 1:5 ...................................... 58 4.4.4 Offentliga biträden i utlänningsärenden, anslag 1:6 ........................................................... 59 4.4.5 Utresor för avvisade/utvisade, anslag 1:7 ........................................................................... 59 4.4.7 Kommunersättningar vid flyktingmottagande, anslag 1:2, utgiftsområde 13 ..................... 62 Bilaga 1 Prognostabell, asylprocessen. Huvudscenario beräknat på behov av medel (H‐B) Bilaga 2 Prognostabell, arbete, besök, bosättning o medborgarskap (H‐B) Bilaga 3 Prognostabell ekonomi, Anslagsutfall inom politikområde migration Bilaga 4 Prognostabell ekonomi, Anslagsprognos inom politikområde migration (H‐B) Bilaga 5 Prognostabeller. Huvudscenario beräknad på tillgängliga medel (H‐T) Bilaga 6 Prognos inkomna UAT/UT samt viseringar till utlandsmyndigheterna Migrationsverkets prognos 2014‐11‐04 (P5‐14) 2(63) 1. Övergripande analys och slutsatser De viktigaste förändringarna samt kvarstående slutsatser sedan föregående prognos (P4‐14) Antalet människor som är på flykt i världen har inte varit så högt sedan andra världskriget. De främsta orsakerna är det pågående kriget i Syrien och konfliktupptrappningen i Irak. Under perioden januari‐oktober har över 165 000 migranter anlänt från Libyen till Italiens kust, jämfört med 60 000 under hela 2013. Båttrafiken över den centrala Medelhavsrutten påverkar i hög grad de största grupperna asylsökande i Sverige; syrier och eritreaner. Migrationsverket vidhåller tidigare bedömning om att kriget i Syrien kommer att fortsätta med oförminskad intensitet under de kommande två åren. Drivkrafterna för syrier att lämna landet och regionen bedöms förbli mycket starka. Antalet asylsökande till Europa och därmed till Sverige fortsätter därmed sannolikt att vara högt under flera år framöver. Konfliktupptrappningen i Irak tillför ytterligare en dimension av osäkerhet i bedömningen av antalet nya asylsökande för år 2015 vilket leder till ett brett prognosintervall. Prognosen justeras från 75 000‐89 000 till 81 000‐84 000 asylsökande år 2014. Nytt huvudscenario är 83 000 asylsökande. Prognosen för år 2015 höjs från 64 000‐94 000 till 80 000‐105 000 asylsökande. Preliminärt planerings‐ och beräkningsunderlag är 95 000 asylsökande. Trenden med en minskad andel Dublinärenden har förstärkts under sommaren. Trenden bedöms endast tillfälligt återhämta sig under vintern år 2015. Omvärldsutveckling och antalet sökande till Sverige Fortsatt högt antal asylsökande under sommaren och början av hösten Sedan verket lämnat sin senaste prognos i juli har antalet nya asylsökande varit fortsatt högt. Från slutet av juni till och med september har i genomsnitt över 2 100 asylsökande anlänt till Sverige per vecka. Det är mer än dubbelt så många som under årets första månader. Under oktober har trenden varit nedåtgående och antalet asylsökande väntas liksom i tidigare bedömningar bli lägre under vintermånaderna. En skillnad i jämförelse med föregående prognos är att antalet asylsökande syrier och statslösa har ökat medan antalet asylsökande eritreaner har minskat. Den kraftiga ökningen av antalet sökande från Eritrea som skedde från maj månad har avstannat och vänt.
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