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De Integratie Van De HSL-Zuid in Het Hoofdrailnet Voor De Concessie

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De Integratie Van De HSL-Zuid in Het Hoofdrailnet Voor De Concessie 14-12-2012 Versie 1.2 De integratie van de HSL-Zuid in het Hoofdrailnet voor de concessie 2015-2024 Op weg naar een geïntegreerd hogesnelheidsnet in Nederland Master Thesis Transport, Infrastructure and Logistics Student: Naam: Roel Zijdemans E-mailadres: [email protected] Studentnummer: 13407940 Universiteit: Technische Universiteit Delft, Faculteit Technologie, Bestuur en Management, sectie Transport en Logistiek, Faculteit Civiele Techniek en Geowetenschappen, sectie Transport en Planning. Afstudeercommissie: Prof. Dr. Ir. B. van Arem TUDelft, Faculteit Civiele Techniek en Geowetenschappen, sectie Transport en Planning Prof. Dr.-Ing. I.A. Hansen TUDelft, Faculteit Civiele Techniek en Geowetenschappen, sectie Transport en Planning Dr. Ir. J.H. Baggen TUDelft, Faculteit Technologie, Bestuur en Management, sectie Transport en Logistiek Dr. R.M.P. Goverde TUDelft, Faculteit Civiele Techniek en Geowetenschappen, sectie Transport en Planning Ir. M.J. Oldenziel NS Hispeed, afdeling Business Development, Alliantiemanager ii Voorwoord Dit afstudeeronderzoek heeft als onderwerp ‘de integratie van de HSL-Zuid in het Hoofdrailnet voor de concessie 2015-2024’. Dit is een zeer actueel onderwerp omdat in het regeerakkoord van het kabinet Rutte-Asscher is vastgelegd dat de HSL-Zuid zal worden toegevoegd aan het Hoofdrailnet en dat de gezamenlijke concessie 2015-2024 zal worden gegund aan NS. In dit onderzoek wordt onder andere gekeken naar de kansen die deze samenvoeging biedt op het gebied van netwerk- en productontwikkeling. Dit onderzoek is verricht als afstudeeropdracht voor de Masterstudie Transport, Infrastructure and Logistics van de TUDelft. De afstudeerprofessor is Prof. Dr. Ir. B. Van Arem van de sectie Transport en Planning, onderdeel van de faculteit Civiele Techniek en Geowetenschappen. Namens de TUDelft zitten verder Prof. Dr.-Ing. I.A. Hansen (Transport en Planning) als adviserend professor, Dr. R.M.P. Goverde (dagelijks begeleider Transport en Planning) en Dr. Ir. J.H. Baggen (dagelijks begeleider Transport en Logistiek, onderdeel van de faculteit Techniek, Bestuur en Management). Het onderzoek is uitgevoerd in opdracht van NS Hispeed. De begeleider vanuit NS Hispeed is Ir. M.J. Oldenziel. iii Summary This report contains a research on the subject ‘The integration of the High-Speed-Line South in the main rail network of the Netherlands for the 2015-2024 concession’. Because of the bad financial situation of the train operator (High Speed Alliance, executed by NS Hispeed), the Minister of Infrastructure and the Environment was forced to find a solution for train operation on the HSL-South. After a research of the alternatives, the solution was incorporated in the Government Agreement for the new Rutte-Asscher government (2012). The solution was that the HSL-South will be combined with the concession for the main Dutch rail network for the period 2015-2024. In this report the chances of the integration and the impact for society have been researched. To this end the following research goal has been formulated: Research the possibilities to integrate the High-Speed-Line South into the main rail network and design one or more plans for the period 2015-2024 to utilize the integration to maximize (societal) profits. To reach this goal a design cycle (Roozenburg & Eekels, 1995) was used to design multiple networks and evaluate those afterwards. The design cycle started with analyzing the design environment which resulted in knowledge of the design freedoms and the criteria that are used to evaluate the designs. As a second step three different alternatives for the end stage have been designed (2024). This was done by constructing train product philosophies for the entire network, based on different forms of high speed line operations in other countries, and applying them to the Dutch situation. This train product philosophies have been improved by applying separate design elements, that have been found in the Analysis. The conclusions about the specific design elements are also applicable for short term timetable-design. The resulting alternatives have been simulated to evaluate them based on the criteria that have been found and to compare them with the assumed situation in 2024: ‘Programma Hoogfrequent Spoorvervoer’. For designing the alternatives the model ‘Design Of Network Schedules’ (DONS) was used. This is a model that can be used to design line networks and timetables (basic hourly patterns) with the ability to make big changes easily. After designing the alternatives they have been simulated in ‘Toedelen van Reizigers aan NetwerkSystemen’ (TRANS), meaning: allocation of travelers to network schedules. This is done to simulate the effect on current rail travelers. To be able to estimate the growth potential of the alternatives (and with it, the financial feasibility) price and travel time elasticities have been used. The three designed alternatives are: Premium, Hybrid and Intercity. These have been compared to the Basic alternative. This basic alternative is based on PHS-3A. This is the joint future vision from NS and ProRail on Dutch timetables in 2020. The Basic alternative has no integrating of the HSL in the main rail network. Fyra trains are only running on the Amsterdam – Rotterdam, Amsterdam – Brussels and Amsterdam – Breda routes. InterCitys and Sprinters are running on the rest of the network. The alternative is based on PHS, so there are a lot of expansions of the services. There are trains running in 10 minute intervals on the routes with the highest traffic volumes. To make this possible, new infrastructure is assumed on a series of lines and freight trains will be diverted to the Betuweroute freight line with a new connection to the mixed network. Fyra services are run with V250 trains (with a maximum speed of 250km/h) and InterCitys are run with the current Intercity Fleet. Two surcharge-options have been examined: no surcharge (E0) and a €3,00 flat fee supplement on the Schiphol – Rotterdam – Breda line (E3). The Premium alternative has a basis of Fyra trains continuing as ‘super-InterCity’ to the edges of The Netherlands. Destinations include the provinces of Groningen, Friesland and Limburg. The service will be fitted for long distance travel with a high operational speed and low amount of stops. Outside the HSL a three-train-model of Fyra-Intercity-Sprinter will be introduced where Fyra will be the fastest to increase travel time benefits. For example Amsterdam Zuid – Zwolle (200km/u on the new Hanze line), The Hague Central – Rotterdam Central and Breda – Eindhoven will be non-stop. These backbone lines will be part of transfer hubs in Zwolle and Eindhoven. This proved crucial for the success of the lines because the travel time gains will work out to a lot of other stations and lines when integrating in a hub. Because of this the backbone lines will be 20-30 minutes faster than their current InterCity counterparts. The higher speed and fewer stops will form a new network on the national level, which is not there at present. This network will be served by V250 or similar trains. The examined surcharge alternatives are: no surcharge (E0), a €3,00 supplement on Rotterdam – Schiphol and Rotterdam – Breda (E3) and a €2,00 basic supplement on Zwolle – Schiphol – Rotterdam and Rotterdam – Breda – Eindhoven with €2,00 extra HSL-surcharge on Schiphol – Rotterdam and Rotterdam – Breda(E2+E2). iv Figuur 1: Networks of the examined alternatives: Basic (top left), Premium (top right), Hybrid (bottom left) and Intercity (bottom right). v In the Hybrid alternative Fyra is still a fast train with few stops (national network level) on the HSL- South, but outside the HSL it will run in sync with current Dutch InterCity trains, which operate on the Interregional network level. The extensions of Fyra will be towards Zwolle and Eindhoven, which coincides with current research by NS and NS Hispeed. By running in 10 of 15 minute intervals with other InterCity trains, which are integrated in the transfer hubs of Eindhoven and Zwolle, Fyras cannot be integrated in these hubs. There will only be a connection in the secondary hub of Eindhoven. During the design cycle it was found that it would be beneficial to allow InterCity trains to use the HSL between Rotterdam and Breda so the strong travel demand between The Hague and Brabant will profit from the HSL. The main benefits of this alternative is the elimination of the transfers on the ends of the High Speed Line. Also there is a slight decrease in travel time because InterCity’s run on the HSL line and Fyras can achieve higher speeds on the Hanze Line. In this alternative the V250 trains will be used. Besides that normal InterCitys on the ‘The Hague – Venlo’ route should be fitted to operate on the HSL. Because of the InterCitys on the HSL it will be impossible to have a surcharge between Rotterdam and Breda and can only be charged on Rotterdam – Schiphol. Because of the low time gains on Eindhoven – Schiphol the surcharge has a very strong negative effect on ridership. Therefor the following surcharge alternatives have been investigated: no surcharge (E0) and a €3,00 supplement on the Rotterdam – Schiphol stretch. The InterCity alternative assumes the HSL to be a regular line for InterCity traffic and leaves Fyra as an hourly international high speed train to Brussels. The HSL will be used for long distance InterCity lines like Amsterdam – Vlissingen, (Amsterdam) – Schiphol – Heerlen and The Hague – Venlo. On the HSL sections they form a 10 minute interval between Schiphol and Rotterdam and a 15 minute interval between Rotterdam and Breda. Because of these fixed patterns which fix the travel times between the hubs of Zwolle and Eindhoven the needed trip times are fixed. These times can be achieved with a maximum speed of 200km/u. Therefor a large fleet of new Intercity trains is needed for this alternative.
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