SOMALIA Food Security Outlook February to September 2021 Consecutive seasons of below-average rainfall likely to lead to widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes KEY MESSAGES • In February, the recent below-average deyr harvest, marginal seasonal Current food security outcomes, February 2021 improvements in livestock production, and sustained humanitarian food assistance are supporting widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes. Although food assistance is mitigating the magnitude of the acutely food insecure population, available evidence indicates at least 1.6 million people across Somalia still have food consumption gaps or are using negative coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4). • Driven by waning La Niña conditions, a below-average gu rainfall season is forecast from April to June. A second consecutive season of below- average rainfall, coupled with the ongoing desert locust upsurge, is anticipated to lead to progressively widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through September. Additionally, economic recovery from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic is occurring gradually and several key sources of income, including livestock exports, remain below normal levels. An estimated 2.7 million people are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4). This projection does not take planned humanitarian food assistance into account due to limited information on confirmed funding and district-level targeting. Source: FEWS NET and FSNAU • In agropastoral and riverine livelihood zones, most poor households will FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily have below-normal food stocks and reduced agricultural labor income reflect the consensus of national food security partners. from the below-average 2020 deyr harvest and the anticipated, below- average 2021 gu harvest. In northern and central pastoral livelihood zones, most poor households are still struggling to recover their livestock holdings, which will continue to limit their food and income from livestock and milk production. Due to the tight cereal supply, rising staple food prices are expected to simultaneously place pressure on rural and urban households’ purchasing power through at least July. Displaced and poor urban households are particularly sensitive to price shocks, with limited coping capacity. Northern Inland Pastoral and Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing livelihood zones are among the areas of high concern, where some households became destitute from the impacts of Cyclone Gati. SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET Somalia FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not [email protected] necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International www.fews.net/somalia Development or the United States Government. SOMALIA Food Security Outlook February to September 2021 NATIONAL OVERVIEW Current Situation Rainfall performance: In February, most of Somalia is currently experiencing Projected food security outcomes, February drier and hotter than normal conditions during the January to March jilaal to May 2021 season. The dry season follows a generally below-average deyr rainfall season in late 2020. As previously reported in FEWS NET’s December 2020 Food Security Outlook Update, cumulative rainfall during the October to December 2020 deyr was 50-80 percent of the historical average in the North and most of the South, with the deepest deficits of 25-50 percent of average located in parts of Toghdeer, Gedo, and Lower Juba regions. Rainfall generally ceased by early to mid-November, except in northern coastal areas where Cyclone Gati made landfall in late November and in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone where the xays showers performed well in December/January. By late December, the cumulative precipitation deficit was indicative of meteorological drought in large parts of the North, according to the Standardized Precipitation Index (Figure 1). In the South, where rainfall deficits have strengthened since November, drought conditions emerged by February. While much of the country is facing atypically dry conditions, riverine areas and some northern coastal areas are still recovering from the impacts of extensive floods and Cyclone Gati. In the Shabelle and Juba riverine areas in the South, the deyr brought a third consecutive season of heavy rain locally and in the upper river catchments in the Ethiopian highlands that expanded the existing Source: FEWS NET and FSNAU flood extent and caused extensive damage to crops and feeder roads. In the Projected food security outcomes, June to Northeast, especially in Bari region, Cyclone Gati brought flash floods that September 2021 caused livestock losses, damaged fishing equipment, and damaged road and water infrastructure. The rapid assessment conducted by the Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management Agency (HADMA) and UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO) and other humanitarian agencies concluded that the storm affected around 183,000 people, killed 9 people and over 63 000 livestock, damaged or contaminated water sources, and damaged essential infrastructure and fishing equipment. In December, humanitarian agencies reported reaching over 78,000 affected people with non-food assistance. Currently, fishing activities have resumed, and roads have re-opened. However, education and health services remain suspended since health clinics and schools still need repairs. Desert locust upsurge: The extent of the desert locust infestation was more widespread in the 2020 deyr than in the 2019 deyr, leading to more significant crop losses in the Northwest and the South and contributing to faster depletion of pasture and browse in central and northern regions. Crop damage was reported in marginal agropastoral livelihood zones and riverine areas in Hiiraan and Lower and Middle Shabelle regions, as well as agropastoral areas in central Somalia. Currently, desert locusts are mainly concentrated in the North and Source: FEWS NET and FSNAU breeding is underway, supported by the recent rains received from Cyclone Gati FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC- and the xays. However, immature groups and swarms have also been reported compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food in pastoral areas of Mudug and Galguduud, Shabelle riverine areas, and as far security partners. south as Bay, Gedo, and the Jubas as the southward winds encourage migration toward Kenya. Government-led control operations have scaled up in an effort to mitigate the situation, with the number of treated hectares (ha) rising three-fold since October to nearly 54,000 ha in January. Agricultural production: Given the above weather and desert locust shocks, combined with localized disruptions to cultivation due to conflict and insecurity, the main season (January 2021) and off-season (March 2021) deyr cereal harvest in Famine Early Warning Systems Network and Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit 2 SOMALIA Food Security Outlook February to September 2021 Figure 1. CHIRPS Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) south-central Somalia is below average. According to FSNAU Drought Monitor1 estimates, total maize and sorghum production is estimated at Oct. 1 – Dec. 31, 2020 Nov. 11, 2020 – Feb. 10, 2021 78,600 metric tons (MT) – including 4,100 MT of off-season crops that are expected in March – which is 15 percent below the 2010-2019 average and 25 percent below 2019/20 deyr production (Figure 2). Given the overall decline in cereal production since 2015 due to recurrent drought and floods, production is similar to (3 percent below) the 2015-2019 five- year average. There are significant regional and livelihood-zone level differences in cereal production. Crop losses were highest in Cowpea Belt Agropastoral livelihood zone, where desert locust and other pests caused crop failure, and in riverine areas of Gedo, Hiiraan, Middle and Lower Juba, and Middle Shabelle, where damage caused by floods and desert locust resulted in regional production shortfalls for the main season that were 26 to 70 percent below the respective regional 10-year averages Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center (2010-2019). Several of these same riverine areas are estimated Figure 2. Main and off-season deyr cereal harvest in southern to have significantly below-average off-season harvests as well. Somalia, 2010-2020 compared to the 2010-2019 average In contrast, crop production performed favorably in Bay and Bakool regions, due to locally timely and above-average rainfall in October. In these two regions, local cereal production was 26 and 31 percent above the respective regional five-year averages, with the bulk of the harvest produced in Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral livelihood zone. Meanwhile, farmers in Lower Shabelle harvested 26,500 MT of cereals, which is near the five- year average but 17 percent below the long-term average. Typically, Bay, and Lower Shabelle regions contribute the highest proportion of annual deyr cereal crops. Cash crop production is estimated at 19,000 MT of sesame, 7,250 MT of cowpeas, and 13,700 MT of other cash crops Source: FSNAU (including rice, groundnuts, onions, peppers, tomatoes, and watermelon). In response to high demand in urban areas, Figure 3. eMODIS NDVI as a percent of 2003-2017