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Strategic Assessment, Vol 16, No 1
Volume 16 | No. 1 | April 2013 Leading from Behind: The “Obama Doctrine” and US Policy in the Middle East | Sanford Lakoff Eleven Years to the Arab Peace Initiative: Time for an Israeli Regional Strategy | Ilai Alon and Gilead Sher The Emergence of the Sunni Axis in the Middle East | Yoel Guzansky and Gallia Lindenstrauss Islam and Democracy: Can the Two Walk Together? | Yoav Rosenberg The US and Israel on Iran: Whither the (Dis)Agreement? | Ephraim Kam Walking a Fine Line: Israel, India, and Iran | Yiftah S. Shapir Response Essays Civilian Casualties of a Military Strike in Iran | Ephraim Asculai If it Comes to Force: A Credible Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Military Option against Iran | Amos Yadlin, Emily B. Landau, and Avner Golov המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומי THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURcITY STUDIES INCORPORATING THE JAFFEE bd CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES Strategic ASSESSMENT Volume 16 | No. 1 | April 2013 CONTENTS Abstracts | 3 Leading from Behind: The “Obama Doctrine” and US Policy in the Middle East | 7 Sanford Lakoff Eleven Years to the Arab Peace Initiative: Time for an Israeli Regional Strategy | 21 Ilai Alon and Gilead Sher The Emergence of the Sunni Axis in the Middle East | 37 Yoel Guzansky and Gallia Lindenstrauss Islam and Democracy: Can the Two Walk Together? | 49 Yoav Rosenberg The US and Israel on Iran: Whither the (Dis)Agreement? | 61 Ephraim Kam Walking a Fine Line: Israel, India, and Iran | 75 Yiftah S. Shapir Response Essays Civilian Casualties of a Military Strike in Iran | 87 Ephraim Asculai If it Comes to Force: A Credible Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Military Option against Iran | 95 Amos Yadlin, Emily B. -
1 Politics Of
POLITICS OF WAR Political Science 343 Portland State University, Spring 2018 David Kinsella Department of Political Science Hatfield School of Government Office: Urban Center Building, room 650L 503.725.3035 | [email protected] Office Hours: Monday & Wednesday 1:00-2:00 Description Issues of war and peace have long been of central importance to world politics. War seems to be an enduring feature of international history and is the subject of constant analysis and commentary. Peace is less frequently analyzed than war, perhaps because its universal value seems to be taken for granted. But how much to we really know about war and peace? The course examines how conflict is manifest in world politics. We take up the subject of violent conflict and its causes: the roots of aggression, weapons proliferation, interstate and civil war, and terrorism. We also consider forces restraining war, including the laws and ethics of war. Throughout the term we will focus on both practical and theoretical issues—historical overviews of specific wars as well as theories and moral arguments pertaining to the recurrence of violence in the international. Learning Objectives The general objective of this course is to develop the student’s capacity to critically examine problems in international conflict and cooperation, consider the range of possible solutions to those problems, and communicate this analysis to others. This is to be accomplished by exposing students to relevant literature from the fields of international politics and foreign policy. By the end of the term, students should be able to: show a familiarity with a wide range of substantive issues in war and peace; interpret historical and contemporary wars and military interventions using appropriate theoretical frameworks; and articulate normative positions on key ethical dilemmas arising from conflict between and within states. -
The Israel Defense Force's Innovations Against Hybrid
MEETING THE HYBRID THREAT: THE ISRAEL DEFENSE FORCE’S INNOVATIONS AGAINST HYBRID ENEMIES, 2000-2009 A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Security Studies By Eleazar S. Berman, B.A. Washington, DC April 16, 2010 Copyright 2010 by Eleazar S. Berman All Rights Reserved ii MEETING THE HYBRID THREAT: THE ISRAEL DEFENSE FORCE’S INNOVATIONS AGAINST HYBRID ENEMIES, 2000- 2009 Eleazar S. Berman, B.A. Thesis Advisor: Jennifer E. Sims, Ph.D. ABSTRACT The 2006 war between Hizbullah and Israel attracted great interest within the American defense community, awakening it to the challenges of “hybrid warfare”. The Israel Defense Force, considered an innovative military, has been working to adapt to Hizbullah and Hamas, both dangerous hybrid organizations. This study explores IDF innovations in two periods, from May 2000- August 2006, the end of the Second Lebanon War, and from August 2006- January 2009, the end of Operation Cast Lead. It gives a history of the campaigns against Hizbullah and Hamas, then details the most important innovations over the two periods. Developing a new analytical framework, this work examines the pressures on and incentives for military innovation in the international, civil/military, organizational, and cultural planes. Finally, the implications of the innovations on military effectiveness are explored. This paper concludes that the perception of failure in 2006 caused the military and civilian leadership to appreciate the same hybrid threat, and this was the main factor enabling the IDF to innovate successfully after the Second Lebanon War. -
Avoiding Another War Between Israel and Hezbollah
COUNTING THE COST Avoiding Another War between Israel and Hezbollah By Nicholas Blanford and Assaf Orion “He who wishes to fight must first count the cost.” Sun Tzu, The Art of War ABOUT THE SCOWCROFT MIDDLE EAST SECURITY INITIATIVE The Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative honors the legacy of Brent Scowcroft and his tireless efforts to build a new security architecture for the region. Our work in this area addresses the full range of security threats and challenges including the danger of interstate warfare, the role of terrorist groups and other nonstate actors, and the underlying security threats facing countries in the region. Through all of the Council’s Middle East programming, we work with allies and partners in Europe and the wider Middle East to protect US interests, build peace and security, and unlock the human potential of the region. You can read more about our programs at www.atlanticcouncil.org/ programs/middle-east-programs/. May 2020 ISBN-13: 978-1-61977-099-7 This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Independence. The authors are solely responsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report’s conclusions. This report is made possible by general support to the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs. COUNTING THE COST Avoiding Another War between Israel and Hezbollah CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................2 -
Fathom Journal Issue 22
Fathom Journal Issue 22 DEBORAH FINEBLUM AMOS YADLIN SHABTAI SHAVIT GARY KENT JOEL SINGER NADAV EYAL RAPHAEL ALMAGOR PAUL IDDON JOHN LYNDON LIAM HOARE ADAM LEBOR JAMES SORENE PHILIP MENDES ALAN JOHNSON JOHN STRAWSON YOCHANAN PLESNER ERAN EZTION 1 YADLIN| ISRAEL’S STRATEGIC CHALLENGES FOUR STRATEGIC THREATS ON ISRAEL’S RADAR | A SPECIAL BRIEFING BY FORMER IDF INTELLIGENCE HEAD AMOS YADLIN AMOS YADLIN Speaking at a private forum in late 2018, Director of the Institute for National Security Studies, Maj. Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin presents an overview of the different regional threats facing Israel as well as the ongoing challenge of the Russian presence in the Middle East. Below is an edited transcript of his remarks. Introduction Israel faces numerous strategic security challenges both on its borders and hundreds of miles away. Its main security challenges come from Hamas in Gaza, Iran’s entrenchment in Syria, Leb- anese Hezbollah, and Iran’s nuclear ambitions. In order to fully understand the scope of these threats, one must analyse them on a scale of immediacy and severity [see infographic 1]. Hamas is the most immediate threat Israel faces, but the least severe. The next most immediate threat is the Syrian civil war coupled with Iran’s entrenchment in the country. After that comes the medi- um-term threat posed by Hezbollah, a far more severe challenge. The most severe and long-term threat Israel faces is Iran’s nuclear ambitions. This essay will analyse the scope, severity, and im- mediacy of these threats. Infographic 1: Threats to Israel’s National Security 2 FATHOM 22 The threat from Hamas When analysing the situation in Gaza, one cannot disconnect it from Israel’s other three main se- curity challenges – the Syrian civil war, Hezbollah, and the Iranian nuclear threat. -
States in Mind Anthony C. Lopez, Rose Mcdermott, and Michael
States in Mind States in Mind Anthony C. Lopez, Rose McDermott, and Evolution, Coalitional Psychology, and Michael Bang International Politics Petersen One of the most com- monly studied puzzles in international politics is the recurrence of coalitional competition and aggression between political groups such as states. Indeed, this pattern constitutes an enduring and central feature of all politics. Yet de- spite the tragic endurance of this leitmotif throughout history, its manifestation varies through time and space. Some wars are fought for honor or revenge, whereas others are ignited for mere opportunism or as a consequence of vari- ous misperceptions, whatever their source. We argue that evolutionary theory provides a theoretical framework that can explain both the stubborn endur- ance and dynamic diversity of coalitional behavior. Debate on the relevance of “human nature” and biological factors for explaining political behavior is not new.1 Yet the comprehensive value of evo- lutionary theory for explaining important aspects of international politics has not been adequately explicated. As we discuss below, this has in part been a consequence of general skepticism about the validity and scope of evolution- ary theory for explaining political behavior. We argue, however, that evolu- tionary psychology can generate falsiªable ex ante predictions that are of central interest to the study of international politics, and we offer several hy- potheses derived from this model to illustrate the depth of this approach. Evo- lutionary psychologists have already generated a large body of work that suggests that the human brain contains webs of psychological mechanisms, or adaptations, each designed to operate in domains relevant to modern politics, and which emerged as a product of natural selection. -
What Causes War?
What Causes War? August 1, 2017 By Kori Schake Kori Schake is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and teaches "Thinking About War" at Stanford University. Schake is the editor, with James Mattis, of the book Warriors and Citizens: American Views of Our Military. Her history of the Anglo-American hegemonic transition is forthcoming from Harvard University Press. This article is reprised from a lecture given at the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s History Institute for Teachers, March 2017, at the First Division Museum, Wheaton, IL, on “Why Does America Go to War?” She is grateful to Sean O’Grady, her terrific research assistant and Stanford University classics major, for thinking about this with her. Abstract: What causes war? Thucydides thinks fear, honor, and interest—those fundamental human motivations that persuade us beyond caution—cause wars. Clausewitz tries to leach those passions out of the process and distill a calculus of political aims as the cause of war. Geoffrey Blainey has a simpler discriminator: states choose war when they think they will win. Barbara Tuchman has the simplest explanation of all: human folly. Azar Gat believes scarcity drives warfare, and, therefore, prosperity is making it obsolete. The author analyzes the contributions of these five writers in addressing this perennial question about war. ar is the scourge of civilization. It destroys prosperity and kills an enormous number of people—combatants and civilians both are swept W into its maw. And yet, war is a constant across all human societies and eras; it is at least as prevalent as peace. It up-ends existing order, often serving the purpose in international relations that earthquakes perform in the natural world, releasing pressure and redistributing territory. -
Russia in Syria and the Implications for Israel Israel's Imagined
Volume 19 | No. 2 | July 2016 Russia in Syria and the Implications for Israel Amos Yadlin Israel’s Imagined Role in the Syrian Civil War Tha‘er al-Nashef and Ofir Winter Will Russia and Iran Walk Hand in Hand? Ephraim Kam Changes in Hezbollah’s Identity and Fundamental Worldview Roman Levi No Magic Solution: The Effectiveness of Deporting Terrorists as a Counterterrorism Policy Measure Adam Hoffman A Troubling Correlation: The Ongoing Economic Deterioration in East Jerusalem and the Current Wave of Terror Amit Efrati Troubles in Paradise: The New Arab Leadership in Israel and the Challenges of the Hour Doron Matza, Meir Elran, and Mohammed Abo Nasra Selective Engagement: China’s Middle East Policy after the Arab Spring Wang Jin China and Turkey: Closer Relations Mixed with Suspicion Galia Lavi and Gallia Lindenstrauss Israel and the International Criminal Court: A Legal Battlefield Bar Levy and Shir Rozenzweig Israel’s Second War Doctrine Ron Tira Strategic ASSESSMENT Volume 19 | No. 2 | July 2016 CONTENTS Abstracts | 3 Russia in Syria and the Implications for Israel | 9 Amos Yadlin Israel’s Imagined Role in the Syrian Civil War | 27 Tha‘er al-Nashef and Ofir Winter Will Russia and Iran Walk Hand in Hand? | 41 Ephraim Kam Changes in Hezbollah’s Identity and Fundamental Worldview | 53 Roman Levi No Magic Solution: The Effectiveness of Deporting Terrorists as a Counterterrorism Policy Measure | 67 Adam Hoffman A Troubling Correlation: The Ongoing Economic Deterioration in East Jerusalem and the Current Wave of Terror | 81 Amit Efrati Troubles -
Case Notes the Public Committee Against Torture in Israel V the Government of Israel*
CASE NOTES THE PUBLIC COMMITTEE AGAINST TORTURE IN ISRAEL V THE GOVERNMENT OF ISRAEL* THE ISRAELI HIGH COURT OF JUSTICE TARGETED KILLING DECISION Case Note: Targeted Killing Decision CONTENTS I Introduction A Israel’s Policy of Targeted Killing B Background to the Case C Main Focus and Structure of the Note II Summary of Judgment A Factual Background B The General Normative Framework 1 International Armed Conflict 2 Combatants 3 Civilians 4 Review by the Court III Critique of Selected Issues A Four-Fold Test 1 Well-Based Information 2 Less Drastic Measures 3 Investigations 4 Proportionality B Adequacy of the Four-Fold Test IV Conclusion I INTRODUCTION A Israel’s Policy of Targeted Killing On 9 November 2000, Hussein ‘Abayat, a senior Fatah Tanzim activist, was driving his car on a busy street in his village in the West Bank. An Israel Defence Forces (‘IDF’) helicopter fired three missiles at him, killing him and two women, Rahma Shahin and ‘Aziza Muhammad Danun, who were standing outside a house.1 ‘Abayat’s killing, less than two months after the al-Aqsa * The Public Committee Against Torture in Israel v The Government of Israel (2006) HCJ 769/02 (‘PCATI’), available in English from <http://elyon1.court.gov.il/eng/home/ index.html> at 18 October 2007. 1 Yael Stein, Israel’s Assassination Policy: Extra-Judicial Executions (B’Tselem Position Paper, January 2001) (Maya Johnston trans, 2001) 1. Melbourne Journal of International Law [Vol 8 Intifada began, marked the start of Israel’s policy of targeted killings.2 Israel has since publicly confirmed that the practice of targeted killings occurs under government orders. -
Interview of Amos Yadlin by Eyal Levy, Ma’Ariv
Ma’ariv – June 10, 2018 Interview of Amos Yadlin By Eyal Levy, Ma’ariv When experts at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) were in the process of preparing a strategic forecast for 2018 last year, they cited the possibilities of a military conflagration in the north with the Iranians and in the south with Hamas. Regrettably, there hasn’t been a “happy end” here. “To a certain extent, there’s a paradox here,” said Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, the director of the INSS. “Israel, in its seventy-year existence, is currently at one of its strongest points. It has a military advantage. It has an alliance unlike any before with the White House. It has good relations with the other world powers, two stable peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan and informal relations with the Sunni Arab world. A firm geopolitical strategic status. On the other hand, it hasn’t solved its central security problems: the threat from Iran, a regional power that calls for our destruction, and the bleeding conflict with the Palestinians. We pointed to the fact that the chances of conflict on those fronts is higher than it was in previous years, despite our strength. We saw that with the victory in the civil war in Syria, Iran has begun to allocate budgets and troops to building advanced military capabilities against us. That resoluteness has encountered an Israeli resoluteness that does not intend to let that happen. When you see strategic trends act against one another, that is a potential clash.” Yadlin has a long security record. -
The Combat Performance of Hamas in the Gaza War of 2014
SEPTEMBER 2014 . VOL 7. ISSUE 9 The Combat Performance a clear improvement in performance of medium range and dozens of long since the Hamas-Israel war in 2009.5 range systems capable of reaching as of Hamas in the Gaza War far as Haifa in northern Israel.9 Hamas’ of 2014 Nevertheless, Hamas also showed rocket forces were well prepared for the weaknesses within its military forces. campaign, with a system of underground By Jeffrey White Its rocket offensive, while disrupting launchers spread across Gaza and the life in Israel, and especially in southern means of moving rockets and rocket in its war with israel in the Israel, caused few casualties and little squads to launch areas under cover.10 summer of 2014, Hamas displayed damage. Its offensive tunnel system, a wide range of combat capabilities, while allowing infiltration inside Israel, Hamas expended considerable effort including new offensive and defensive did not lead to successful penetration into the build-up of its ground tactics.1 Hamas’ evolution on the of the border defense system, except forces. These forces were to be battlefield presented serious challenges perhaps in one case.6 Despite the employed offensively against Israel to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and, defensive tunnel system, Israeli forces and defensively to prevent deep when combined with Israeli operations, caused extensive damage to Hamas’ penetrations into Gaza by Israeli made the conflict the most costly in military infrastructure.7 Hamas’ ground ground forces. Hamas organized the terms of casualties and damage to Gaza forces, notwithstanding their upgrades, defensive battlefield by deploying since Hamas seized power in 2007.2 were unable to prevent IDF ground dense systems of improvised explosive operations. -
Israel's Struggle Against Hamas
Università degli Studi “Roma Tre” Scuola Dottorale in Scienze Politiche XXV Ciclo Israel’s Struggle Against Hamas Supervisore Dottorando Prof. Leopoldo Nuti Niccolò Petrelli Coordinatore della Sezione Prof. Leopoldo Nuti Introduction The PhD research, ‘Israel’s Struggle against Hamas: Strategic Culture, Adaptation and War’, studies the impact of cultural factors on the Israeli counter-insurgency vis-à-vis Hamas in the period comprised between 1987 and 2005, analyzing to what extent the peculiar traits of the Israeli approach to security and military affairs account for the shaping of a distinct ‘way of war’ and for the successes and failures of the Jewish state in countering the Islamic Resistance Movement’s insurgency. The concept of ‘counter-insurgency’ is logically contingent on that of ‘insurgency’, to which it applies. Being insurgency a protracted struggle to control a contested political space conducted by one or more popularly based non-state challengers1, ‘counter-insurgency’ could be defined as all those measures through which elements of national power are applied for the purpose of suppressing an insurgency. From this definition it appears clear how the concept constitutes an analytical paradigm through which scholars and practitioners approach asymmetric warfare (or war against ‘irregulars’, ‘partisans’ or ‘guerrillas’), that is struggles between non-state and state actors.2 Although old as human civilization, asymmetric warfare rose to prominence after 1945, coming to represent the norm, rather than the exception, of war.3 The end of the Cold War and the last two decades seemed to confirm the ascendancy of this specific kind of warfare over ‘conventional’ or ‘symmetric warfare’ and the setting of a pattern that will probably continue for some time.4 Counter-insurgency represents therefore a topic worth to study not only by virtue of its prominence in the history of warfare, but also in light of the nature of the conflicts confronting the international community, either currently and possibly also in the near future.