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Strategic Assessment, Vol 16, No 1
Volume 16 | No. 1 | April 2013 Leading from Behind: The “Obama Doctrine” and US Policy in the Middle East | Sanford Lakoff Eleven Years to the Arab Peace Initiative: Time for an Israeli Regional Strategy | Ilai Alon and Gilead Sher The Emergence of the Sunni Axis in the Middle East | Yoel Guzansky and Gallia Lindenstrauss Islam and Democracy: Can the Two Walk Together? | Yoav Rosenberg The US and Israel on Iran: Whither the (Dis)Agreement? | Ephraim Kam Walking a Fine Line: Israel, India, and Iran | Yiftah S. Shapir Response Essays Civilian Casualties of a Military Strike in Iran | Ephraim Asculai If it Comes to Force: A Credible Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Military Option against Iran | Amos Yadlin, Emily B. Landau, and Avner Golov המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומי THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURcITY STUDIES INCORPORATING THE JAFFEE bd CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES Strategic ASSESSMENT Volume 16 | No. 1 | April 2013 CONTENTS Abstracts | 3 Leading from Behind: The “Obama Doctrine” and US Policy in the Middle East | 7 Sanford Lakoff Eleven Years to the Arab Peace Initiative: Time for an Israeli Regional Strategy | 21 Ilai Alon and Gilead Sher The Emergence of the Sunni Axis in the Middle East | 37 Yoel Guzansky and Gallia Lindenstrauss Islam and Democracy: Can the Two Walk Together? | 49 Yoav Rosenberg The US and Israel on Iran: Whither the (Dis)Agreement? | 61 Ephraim Kam Walking a Fine Line: Israel, India, and Iran | 75 Yiftah S. Shapir Response Essays Civilian Casualties of a Military Strike in Iran | 87 Ephraim Asculai If it Comes to Force: A Credible Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Military Option against Iran | 95 Amos Yadlin, Emily B. -
Israel: Alternative Regional Options in a Changing Middle East
Report June 2013 Israel: alternative regional options in a changing Middle East By Yossi Alpher1 Executive summary Today Israel confronts broad regional security challenges reminiscent of those it faced in the early decades of its existence. Then it responded to the threat posed by the hostile Arab states that surrounded it by developing the “periphery doctrine”. It formed strategic ties with Iran, Turkey and other non-Arab, non- Muslim or geographically distant Arab states and minorities that shared its concerns. The original periphery doctrine ground to a halt between 1973 and 1983 and was in many ways replaced by the Arab-Israel peace process, both bilateral and multilateral. Eventually, the failure to register significant progress toward a solution of the Palestinian issue blunted this momentum. Currently Israel sees itself increasingly ringed by hostile Islamists in Egypt, Gaza, southern Lebanon and probably Syria, as well as non-Arab Turkey and Iran. Once again it confronts the spectre of regional isolation. But it is far better equipped than in the past to deal with a hostile ring of neighbours. Its policy options include not only a “new periphery” (Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Greece and Ethiopia, among others), but also the projection of both soft (particularly economic) and hard power, a search for accommodation with political Islam beginning with Hamas in Gaza, and a partial or comprehensive two-state solution agreement with the West Bank-based PLO. Introduction hostile Arab states motivated by Arab nationalism and led Today Israel confronts broad regional security challenges by Egypt’s Gamal Abdel Nasser. These neighbouring that in some ways are reminiscent of those it faced in the countries were smarting from a string of military defeats at early decades of its existence. -
Avoiding Another War Between Israel and Hezbollah
COUNTING THE COST Avoiding Another War between Israel and Hezbollah By Nicholas Blanford and Assaf Orion “He who wishes to fight must first count the cost.” Sun Tzu, The Art of War ABOUT THE SCOWCROFT MIDDLE EAST SECURITY INITIATIVE The Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative honors the legacy of Brent Scowcroft and his tireless efforts to build a new security architecture for the region. Our work in this area addresses the full range of security threats and challenges including the danger of interstate warfare, the role of terrorist groups and other nonstate actors, and the underlying security threats facing countries in the region. Through all of the Council’s Middle East programming, we work with allies and partners in Europe and the wider Middle East to protect US interests, build peace and security, and unlock the human potential of the region. You can read more about our programs at www.atlanticcouncil.org/ programs/middle-east-programs/. May 2020 ISBN-13: 978-1-61977-099-7 This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Independence. The authors are solely responsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report’s conclusions. This report is made possible by general support to the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs. COUNTING THE COST Avoiding Another War between Israel and Hezbollah CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................2 -
The 13Th Annual International Conference of The
THE 13 TH ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR COUNTER-TERRORISM World Summit on Counter-Terrorism: With the Support of Keren Daniel Terrorism’s Global Impact It takes a network to beat a network,” said Dr. Boaz Ganor, Ronald S. Lauder chair for Counter-Terrorism, depuM dean, Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy “ & Strategy, and founder and executive director, the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT), the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya, Israel, speaking at the opening of the th Annual Conference on Global Terrorism. Dr. Ganor described how ICT’s world summit on counter- terrorism provides a dynamic platform for over leading experts and decision-makers to network, establish essential cooperation and exchange views on the challenges faced by counter-terrorism oZcials. Scheduled to coincide with and commemorate the / terrorist a]acks on America, the conference has received worldwide acclaim since its inception. 40 // IDC WINTER 2014 Special Feature: th Annual ICT Conferencee rof. Uriel Reichman , founder and presi- the IDF’s military capa bility.” MK Dr. Yuval Pdent of the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Steinitz, Ministry of International Relations, Let us remember the innocent Herzliya, proudly told participants in his Intelligence and Strategic A$airs, said Israel was civilians murdered by welcoming address that this year’s conference not involved in the chaos in Syria, but if Israel marked !" years of IDC Herzliya. He said that was dragged into the con&ict, it would respond suicide bombers who did not IDC Herzliya has brought a revolution to edu- “with a strong hand, and an outstretched arm,” distinguish between civilians of cation in Israel, as it is the #rst private academ- a reference to the biblical phrase. -
Russia in Syria and the Implications for Israel Israel's Imagined
Volume 19 | No. 2 | July 2016 Russia in Syria and the Implications for Israel Amos Yadlin Israel’s Imagined Role in the Syrian Civil War Tha‘er al-Nashef and Ofir Winter Will Russia and Iran Walk Hand in Hand? Ephraim Kam Changes in Hezbollah’s Identity and Fundamental Worldview Roman Levi No Magic Solution: The Effectiveness of Deporting Terrorists as a Counterterrorism Policy Measure Adam Hoffman A Troubling Correlation: The Ongoing Economic Deterioration in East Jerusalem and the Current Wave of Terror Amit Efrati Troubles in Paradise: The New Arab Leadership in Israel and the Challenges of the Hour Doron Matza, Meir Elran, and Mohammed Abo Nasra Selective Engagement: China’s Middle East Policy after the Arab Spring Wang Jin China and Turkey: Closer Relations Mixed with Suspicion Galia Lavi and Gallia Lindenstrauss Israel and the International Criminal Court: A Legal Battlefield Bar Levy and Shir Rozenzweig Israel’s Second War Doctrine Ron Tira Strategic ASSESSMENT Volume 19 | No. 2 | July 2016 CONTENTS Abstracts | 3 Russia in Syria and the Implications for Israel | 9 Amos Yadlin Israel’s Imagined Role in the Syrian Civil War | 27 Tha‘er al-Nashef and Ofir Winter Will Russia and Iran Walk Hand in Hand? | 41 Ephraim Kam Changes in Hezbollah’s Identity and Fundamental Worldview | 53 Roman Levi No Magic Solution: The Effectiveness of Deporting Terrorists as a Counterterrorism Policy Measure | 67 Adam Hoffman A Troubling Correlation: The Ongoing Economic Deterioration in East Jerusalem and the Current Wave of Terror | 81 Amit Efrati Troubles -
מחלקת שפות זרות/FA & Defence/3953
c. Method As proposed by the Chairman, the task was given to the Sub-Committee for Intelligence and the Secret Services, comprising six members of the Knesset. The members of the committee are: MK Yuval Steinitz – chair, MK Ehud Yatom, MK David Levy, MK Haim Ramon, MK Eli Yishai and MK Ilan Leibovitch. MK Danny Yatom, who was replaced in the course of the committee’s work as part of the rotation of members of the Labor faction in the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, also contributed to the work of the committee at the beginning. Mr. Shabtai Shavit – a former head of the Mossad - served as a consultant to the committee. The committee takes this opportunity to thank him for his significant contribution. The senior professional assistant of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Colonel (res.) Shmuel Letko, served as the secretary of the committee. The work of the committee was closely accompanied by the incoming Director-General of the Committee, R. Admiral (res.) Avriel Bar-Joseph, and by the outgoing Director-General of the Committee, Mr. Baruch Friedner, who was also given the task of writing the report. The Committee began its work in July 2003 and completed it recently. The Committee held some 30 plenum sessions and scores of smaller work meetings, in the course of which the following, inter alia, appeared before it: The Prime Minister, Mr. Ariel Sharon The Minister of Defense, Mr. Shaul Mofaz The Deputy Minister of Defense, Mr. Zeev Boim The Chief-of-Staff, Lieutenant General Moshe (Boogy) Ya'alon The Head of Military Intelligence, Major-General Aharon (Farkash) Zeevi 13 The Head of the Mossad, Major-General (res.) Mr. -
Case Notes the Public Committee Against Torture in Israel V the Government of Israel*
CASE NOTES THE PUBLIC COMMITTEE AGAINST TORTURE IN ISRAEL V THE GOVERNMENT OF ISRAEL* THE ISRAELI HIGH COURT OF JUSTICE TARGETED KILLING DECISION Case Note: Targeted Killing Decision CONTENTS I Introduction A Israel’s Policy of Targeted Killing B Background to the Case C Main Focus and Structure of the Note II Summary of Judgment A Factual Background B The General Normative Framework 1 International Armed Conflict 2 Combatants 3 Civilians 4 Review by the Court III Critique of Selected Issues A Four-Fold Test 1 Well-Based Information 2 Less Drastic Measures 3 Investigations 4 Proportionality B Adequacy of the Four-Fold Test IV Conclusion I INTRODUCTION A Israel’s Policy of Targeted Killing On 9 November 2000, Hussein ‘Abayat, a senior Fatah Tanzim activist, was driving his car on a busy street in his village in the West Bank. An Israel Defence Forces (‘IDF’) helicopter fired three missiles at him, killing him and two women, Rahma Shahin and ‘Aziza Muhammad Danun, who were standing outside a house.1 ‘Abayat’s killing, less than two months after the al-Aqsa * The Public Committee Against Torture in Israel v The Government of Israel (2006) HCJ 769/02 (‘PCATI’), available in English from <http://elyon1.court.gov.il/eng/home/ index.html> at 18 October 2007. 1 Yael Stein, Israel’s Assassination Policy: Extra-Judicial Executions (B’Tselem Position Paper, January 2001) (Maya Johnston trans, 2001) 1. Melbourne Journal of International Law [Vol 8 Intifada began, marked the start of Israel’s policy of targeted killings.2 Israel has since publicly confirmed that the practice of targeted killings occurs under government orders. -
Interview of Amos Yadlin by Eyal Levy, Ma’Ariv
Ma’ariv – June 10, 2018 Interview of Amos Yadlin By Eyal Levy, Ma’ariv When experts at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) were in the process of preparing a strategic forecast for 2018 last year, they cited the possibilities of a military conflagration in the north with the Iranians and in the south with Hamas. Regrettably, there hasn’t been a “happy end” here. “To a certain extent, there’s a paradox here,” said Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, the director of the INSS. “Israel, in its seventy-year existence, is currently at one of its strongest points. It has a military advantage. It has an alliance unlike any before with the White House. It has good relations with the other world powers, two stable peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan and informal relations with the Sunni Arab world. A firm geopolitical strategic status. On the other hand, it hasn’t solved its central security problems: the threat from Iran, a regional power that calls for our destruction, and the bleeding conflict with the Palestinians. We pointed to the fact that the chances of conflict on those fronts is higher than it was in previous years, despite our strength. We saw that with the victory in the civil war in Syria, Iran has begun to allocate budgets and troops to building advanced military capabilities against us. That resoluteness has encountered an Israeli resoluteness that does not intend to let that happen. When you see strategic trends act against one another, that is a potential clash.” Yadlin has a long security record. -
The Combat Performance of Hamas in the Gaza War of 2014
SEPTEMBER 2014 . VOL 7. ISSUE 9 The Combat Performance a clear improvement in performance of medium range and dozens of long since the Hamas-Israel war in 2009.5 range systems capable of reaching as of Hamas in the Gaza War far as Haifa in northern Israel.9 Hamas’ of 2014 Nevertheless, Hamas also showed rocket forces were well prepared for the weaknesses within its military forces. campaign, with a system of underground By Jeffrey White Its rocket offensive, while disrupting launchers spread across Gaza and the life in Israel, and especially in southern means of moving rockets and rocket in its war with israel in the Israel, caused few casualties and little squads to launch areas under cover.10 summer of 2014, Hamas displayed damage. Its offensive tunnel system, a wide range of combat capabilities, while allowing infiltration inside Israel, Hamas expended considerable effort including new offensive and defensive did not lead to successful penetration into the build-up of its ground tactics.1 Hamas’ evolution on the of the border defense system, except forces. These forces were to be battlefield presented serious challenges perhaps in one case.6 Despite the employed offensively against Israel to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and, defensive tunnel system, Israeli forces and defensively to prevent deep when combined with Israeli operations, caused extensive damage to Hamas’ penetrations into Gaza by Israeli made the conflict the most costly in military infrastructure.7 Hamas’ ground ground forces. Hamas organized the terms of casualties and damage to Gaza forces, notwithstanding their upgrades, defensive battlefield by deploying since Hamas seized power in 2007.2 were unable to prevent IDF ground dense systems of improvised explosive operations. -
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MENU Policy Analysis / Policy Forum New Thinking About Israeli National Security in a Changing Regional Environment by Yair Golan Aug 23, 2017 ABOUT THE AUTHORS Yair Golan Yair Golan, a major general in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), was a 2017 military fellow at The Washington Institute. Brief Analysis Watch a wide-ranging address by the former deputy chief of the Israel Defense Forces' general staff as he explores the new and more complex security challenges facing Israel. D ownload a PDF transcript of the general's speech and Q&A session. In today's Middle East, Israeli strategists face a world like none they have seen before: Russia struts the stage as a rising actor in the Levant, Iran flexes its muscles just kilometers from Israel's border, and the United States debates whether to even push back against Tehran's insidious opportunism. Still, along with these new problems arises a wave of new possibilities, foremost of which is the potential for strategic alignment with key Sunni Arab states. But to navigate these seas successfully, Israel will have to jettison old ideas and old thinking. To discuss Israel's strategy for addressing these issues, The Washington Institute hosted Maj. Gen. Yair Golan, IDF, for its annual Zeev Schiff Lecture on Middle East security. Yair Golan, a 2017 military fellow at the Institute, is a major general in the Israel Defense Forces who served for the past two years as deputy chief of the general staff. In an IDF career spanning nearly 37 years, his assignments have included commander of Northern Command, head of the IDF Operations Directorate, commander of the Judea and Samaria Division, and commander of the Home Front Command. -
Marjetka Pezdirc Terrorism Complex Final
The Terrorism Complex Submitted by Marjetka Pezdirc to the University of Exeter as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Ethno–Political Studies in January 2015 \ This thesis is available for Library use on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. I certify that all material in this thesis which is not my own work has been identified and that no material has previously been submitted and approved for the award of a degree by this or any other University. Signature: ………………………………………………………….. Abstract Discussing, defining and engaging with ‘terrorism’ has long been limited to the narrowly framed situations in which parties to an asymmetric conflict resort to the use of force and to the legitimacy they have in doing so. The problem with the limited understanding of ‘terrorism’ and ‘counterterrorism’ as ‘facts of objective reality’ is the lack of attention to the role of the extreme asymmetry of power in conflicts involving ‘terrorism’ that does not lend itself to analysis readily. This thesis introduces a new theoretical concept, the Terrorism Complex that signifies the complexity of power/knowledge relations and the complexity of power/knowledge practices that operate on a discursive and non-discursive level through time and are affected by the mechanisms of power that stem from the asymmetry of power between the actors involved in a conflict. The research into the Terrorism Complex involves an ontological and epistemological widening of the research focus to account for these effects of the interplay between power and knowledge on the production, construction and perception of ‘terrorism’. -
The Strategic Challenges Facing Israel by Amos Yadlin
BICOM Briefing The Strategic Challenges facing Israel By Amos Yadlin January 2019 Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin is Director of with Iran’s entrenchment in the country. After the Institute for National Security Studies that comes the medium-term threat posed by and former head of military intelligence in the Hezbollah, a far more severe challenge. The most Israel Defence Forces. This briefing is based on severe and long-term threat Israel faces is Iran’s remarks he gave to a private audience in London nuclear ambitions. This essay will analyse the in late 2018. scope, severity, and immediacy of these threats. Introduction The threat from Hamas Israel faces numerous strategic security When analysing the situation in Gaza, one challenges both on its borders and hundreds of cannot disconnect it from Israel’s other three miles away. Its main security challenges come main security challenges – the Syrian civil war, from Hamas in Gaza, Iran’s entrenchment in Hezbollah, and the Iranian nuclear threat. Israel’s Syria, Lebanese Hezbollah, and Iran’s nuclear decision not to enter a full-scale war with Hamas ambitions. In order to fully understand the scope in November 2018 [after Hamas sent 500 rockets of these threats, one must analyse them on a into southern Israel] cannot be understood scale of immediacy and severity [see infographic without realising that there are far greater 1]. Hamas is the most immediate threat Israel challenges the Israeli cabinet and defence faces, but the least severe. The next most establishment are worried about. immediate threat is the Syrian civil war coupled Infographic 1: Threats to Israel’s National Security 1 Infographic 2: The Gaza Continuum demands for a Hudna, essentially receiving The threat Israel faces from Hamas is everything without giving anything substantial immediate, although the lowest on the scale in return, are far greater than what the President of severity.