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The Saban Forum 2012 The Saban Forum 2012 A U.S.–Israeli Dialogue U.S.-Israeli Relations in a Changing Environment Washington, D.C. November 30-December 2, 2012 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 Phone: 202-797-6462, Fax: 202-797-2481 www.brookings.edu/sabancenter FRONT COVER: Top: Chairman of the Saban Forum Haim Saban and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Bottom (Clockwise): Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, former Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice. The Saban Forum 2012 A U.S.–Israeli Dialogue U.S.-Israeli Relations in a Changing Environment Washington, D.C. November 30-December 2, 2012 Speakers and Moderators ElliottAbrAms sAlAmFAyyAd nAssErJudEh miChael OrEn silvAn ShAlom GAbiAshkEnAzi robErtFord AviGdor LiEbErmAn dAvid REmniCk robErt Siegel Ehud BArAk dAvidGregory JosEph LiEbErmAn CondoleezzA Rice shiblEy TElhAmi hillAry RodhAmClinton stEphEn HAdlEy tzipi Livni bruce RiEdEl dAnAWEiss WilliAmJ.Clinton EphrAim HAlEvy John MCCAin dEnnis Ross lEonWiEsEltiEr ilAnA DAyAn dAvid IGnAtius dAn MEridor hAim SAbAn tAmArAWittEs Jackson DiEhl mArtin Indyk Ehud OlmErt dAvid SAnger Amos YAdlin rAhmEmAnuEl ABOVE: John Kerry, Hillary Rodham Clinton, and Ronald Cohen. FACING PAGE: Top: Salam Fayyad and Haim Saban. Bottom: Ron Prosor, Avigdor Lieberman, and Martin Indyk. A Letter from the Chairman . 5 List of Participants . 6 Program . 19 Keynote Address by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton . 23 A Conversation with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton . 31 A Conversation with Avigdor Lieberman . 35 A Conversation with Prime Minister Salam Fayyad . 39 A Conversation with Defense Minister Ehud Barak . 43 A Conversation with President William J . Clinton . 47 A Conversation with former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert . 51 A Conversation with Mayor of Chicago Rahm Emanuel and former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni . 55 Turmoil in the Middle East . 59 What to do About Syria? . 63 U .S .-Israel Relations in the Wake of the American Elections . 67 What to do About Iran? . 71 A Letter from the Chairman In December 2012, the Saban Forum brought together leading government officials, journalists, and policy experts for two days to discuss the most pressing challenges facing the United States and Israel. Our Forum met just after another round of Hamas-Israel violence, as the war in Syria continued to deepen and Iran’s nuclear centrifuges continued to spin. When the Saban Forum convened in 2011, we found ourselves in the middle of a shifting Middle East order known as the Arab Awakening. In 2012, new gov- ernments emerged in Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt which were increasingly sensitive to popular will and more subject to Islamist influence. In the midst of all this regional turmoil, Israeli-Palestinian peace seemed a distant dream. The Palestine Liberation Organization sought recognition of statehood from the United Na- tions, Hamas gained traction at Fatah’s expense, and new episodes of violence with rocket attacks from Gaza made renewed negotiations seem further in the distance. In the face of such uncertainty, it’s more important than ever for Washington and Jerusalem to build a common understanding of these profound developments and their strategic implications. We discussed how our two countries, who have long had shared interests in the Middle East, could find ways to move forward together, despite sometimes differing perspectives on regional developments. We were honored to have several leading officials join us at the Forum, including Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, who delivered keynote remarks, as well as President William J. Clinton, former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, for- mer Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh, Senator Joseph Lieberman, former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, and the mayor of Chicago, Rahm Emanuel. The purpose of the Saban Forum is to foster dialogue and debate among our participants. For this reason, we hold the Forum under the “Chatham House Rule,” meaning that participants are free to use the information discussed, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speakers may be revealed. But given the import of the issues, and the wisdom of our participants, we also feel it is vital to share the key conclusions of the gathering. What follows is our summary of the discussions, as well as transcripts of those sessions that were held on the record. I hope these proceedings offer new insight into the challenges facing the Middle East and the strategic implications of U.S. and Israeli policy decisions. HAIM SABAN Chairman, The Saban Forum U .S .-I sraeli relation S I n A CHA ngIng Environ menT 5 S a b a n F o r u m 2012 American Participants ELLIOTT ABRAMS STEPheN BREYER Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Associate Justice, United States Studies, Council on Foreign Supreme Court. Relations. GARY ACKERMAN ChaRLES BRONFMAN United States House of Chairman, The Andrea and Representatives (NY-5). Charles Bronfman Philanthropies. ALAN BATKIN DANIEL L. BYMAN Vice Chairman, Eton Park Capital Director of Research, Saban Management; Former Vice Center for Middle East Policy Chairman, Kissinger Associates, at the Brookings Institution; Inc.; Trustee, The Brookings Professor, Security Studies Program Institution. of Georgetown University. JEREMY BEN-AMI PAUL CejaS Founder and President, J-Street. Chief Executive Officer, PLC Investments, Inc.; Trustee, The Brookings Institution; Member, Foreign Policy Leadership Committee, The Brookings Institution. SAMUEL R. BERgeR ADAM CheSNOFF Chair, Albright Stonebridge President and Chief Operating Group; former National Security Officer, Saban Capital Group, Inc. Advisor. HOWARD BERMAN HILLARY RODhaM CLINTON United States Representative Secretary of State. (CA-28); Ranking Member, Committee on Foreign Affairs. 6 THE SABA n FORUM: A U .S .-ISRAEL DIALO gUE S a b a n F o r u m 2012 American Participants (continued) WILLIAM J. CLINTON ALFONSO FANJUL 42nd President of the United Chairman and CEO, Fanjul States; Founder, William J. Corp. and Florida Crystals Clinton Foundation. Corporation; Member, Foreign Policy Leadership Committee, The Brookings Institution. ELIE DEKEL SCOTT FIELD President, Saban Brands. Middle East Manager of the Skoll Global Threats Fund. JACKSON DIehL DAVID FISheR Deputy Editorial Page Editor, The Chairman Emeritus, Capital Washington Post. Group International; Member, Foreign Policy Leadership Committee, The Brookings Institution. MIChaeL DORAN ROBERT S. FORD Roger Hertog Senior Fellow, Saban Special Advisor on Syria, United Center for Middle East Policy at States Department of State. the Brookings Institution. KhaLED ELGINDY FRED GLUCKMAN Research Fellow, Saban Center Senior Vice President and Chief for Middle East Policy at the Financial Officer, Saban Capital Brookings Institution. Group. RahM EMANUEL STEPheN HADLEY Mayor of Chicago. Principal, RiceHadleyGates LLC, and Senior Advisor for International Affairs, U.S. Institute of Peace. U .S .-I sraeli relation S I n A CHA ngIng Environ menT 7 S a b a n F o r u m 2012 American Participants (continued) JANE HARMAN DAVID MAKOVSKY Director, President, and CEO, The Ziegler Distinguished Fellow Woodrow Wilson International and Director of the Project on Center for Scholars. the Middle East Peace Process, Washington Institute for Near East Policy. DAVID IGNATIUS ROBERT MALLEY Associate Editor and Foreign- Director of the Middle East Affairs Columnist, The Washington and North Africa Program, the Post. International Crisis Group. MARTIN INDYK SUZANNE MALONEY Convener of The Saban Forum; Senior Fellow, Saban Center Vice President and Director of for Middle East Policy at the Foreign Policy at Brookings; former Brookings Institution. U.S. Ambassador to Israel. EDWARD LAMONT JOHN MCCAIN Chairman, Lamont Digital United States Senator (AZ). Systems; Member, Foreign Policy Leadership Committee, The Brookings Institution. JOSEPH I. LIEBERMAN AYMAN MOHYELDIN United States Senator (CT). Foreign Correspondent, NBC News (Cairo). NITA LOWEY MIChaeL O’HANLON United States Representative Senior Fellow in the 21st Century (NY-18). Defense Initiative and Director of Research, Foreign Policy Program at the Brookings Institution. 8 THE SABA n FORUM: A U .S .-ISRAEL DIALO gUE S a b a n F o r u m 2012 American Participants (continued) ChaRLES PEREZ DAVID RUBENSTEIN Chairman, Charles A LLC. Co-Founder and Managing Director, The Carlyle Group.; Trustee, The Brookings Institution; Member, Foreign Policy Leadership Committee, The Brookings Institution. KENNETH M. POLLACK CheRYL SABAN Senior Fellow, Saban Center Founder, Self Worth Foundation; for Middle East Policy at the U.S. Representative to the General Brookings Institution. Assembly of the United Nations. DAVID REMNICK HAIM SABAN Editor-in-Chief, The New Yorker. Chairman, The Saban Forum; Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Saban Capital Group; Trustee, The Brookings Institution. CONDOLeeZA RICE NATAN SACHS Professor of political economy and Research Fellow, Saban Center political science, Stanford University, for Middle East Policy at the Senior Fellow on Public Policy, Brookings Institution. the Hoover Institution; Founding Partner, RiceHadleyGates, LLC. BRUCE RIEDEL KARIM SADjaDPOUR Senior Fellow, Saban Center Senior Associate, Middle East for Middle East Policy at the Program, Carnegie Endowment Brookings Institution. for International Peace.
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