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Volume 19 | No. 2 | July 2016 Russia in Syria and the Implications for Israel Amos Yadlin Israel’s Imagined Role in the Syrian Civil War Tha‘er al-Nashef and Ofir Winter Will Russia and Iran Walk Hand in Hand? Ephraim Kam Changes in Hezbollah’s Identity and Fundamental Worldview Roman Levi No Magic Solution: The Effectiveness of Deporting Terrorists as a Counterterrorism Policy Measure Adam Hoffman A Troubling Correlation: The Ongoing Economic Deterioration in East Jerusalem and the Current Wave of Terror Amit Efrati Troubles in Paradise: The New Arab Leadership in Israel and the Challenges of the Hour Doron Matza, Meir Elran, and Mohammed Abo Nasra Selective Engagement: China’s Middle East Policy after the Arab Spring Wang Jin China and Turkey: Closer Relations Mixed with Suspicion Galia Lavi and Gallia Lindenstrauss Israel and the International Criminal Court: A Legal Battlefield Bar Levy and Shir Rozenzweig Israel’s Second War Doctrine Ron Tira Strategic ASSESSMENT Volume 19 | No. 2 | July 2016 CONTENTS Abstracts | 3 Russia in Syria and the Implications for Israel | 9 Amos Yadlin Israel’s Imagined Role in the Syrian Civil War | 27 Tha‘er al-Nashef and Ofir Winter Will Russia and Iran Walk Hand in Hand? | 41 Ephraim Kam Changes in Hezbollah’s Identity and Fundamental Worldview | 53 Roman Levi No Magic Solution: The Effectiveness of Deporting Terrorists as a Counterterrorism Policy Measure | 67 Adam Hoffman A Troubling Correlation: The Ongoing Economic Deterioration in East Jerusalem and the Current Wave of Terror | 81 Amit Efrati Troubles in Paradise: The New Arab Leadership in Israel and the Challenges of the Hour | 95 Doron Matza, Meir Elran, and Mohammed Abo Nasra Selective Engagement: China’s Middle East Policy after the Arab Spring | 105 Wang Jin China and Turkey: Closer Relations Mixed with Suspicion | 119 Galia Lavi and Gallia Lindenstrauss Israel and the International Criminal Court: A Legal Battlefield | 129 Bar Levy and Shir Rozenzweig Israel’s Second War Doctrine | 143 Ron Tira Strategic The purpose of Strategic Assessment is to stimulate and ASSESSMENT enrich the public debate on issues that are, or should be, on Israel’s national security agenda. Strategic Assessment is a quarterly publication comprising policy-oriented articles written by INSS researchers and guest contributors. The views presented here are those of the authors alone. The Institute for National Security Studies is a public benefit company. Editor in Chief Amos Yadlin Editor Mark A. Heller Associate Editor Judith Rosen Managing Editor Moshe Grundman Editorial Board Shlomo Brom, Oded Eran, Moshe Grundman, Yoel Guzansky, Mark A. Heller, Ephraim Kam, Anat Kurz, Gallia Lindenstrauss, Judith Rosen, Amos Yadlin Editorial Advisory Board Dan Ben-David, Azar Gat, Efraim Halevy, Tamar Hermann, Itamar Rabinovich, Shimon Shamir, Gabi Sheffer, Emmanual Sivan, Shimon Stein, Asher Susser, Eyal Zisser Graphic Design: Michal Semo-Kovetz, Yael Bieber Tel Aviv University Graphic Design Studio Printing: Elinir The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) 40 Haim Levanon • POB 39950 • Tel Aviv 6997556 • Israel Tel: +972-3-640-0400 • Fax: +972-3-744-7590 • E-mail: [email protected] Strategic Assessment is published in English and Hebrew. The full text is available on the Institute’s website: www.inss.org.il © All rights reserved. ISSN 0793-8942 Abstracts Russia in Syria and the Implications for Israel Amos Yadlin Ten months have passed since Russia surprised the world with its military intervention in Syria and its deployment of a substantial military force beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union. As such, enough time has elapsed since Russia launched its campaign to save the Assad regime to examine the campaign’s successes and failures. This article analyzes the objectives of the Russian campaign and its military, diplomatic, and international aspects, discusses the balance of Russia’s successes and failures, and considers Russia’s relations with the actors involved in the fighting. Finally, it looks at the impact on Israel of the intensified Russian involvement in the Middle East. Keywords: Syria, Russia, Israel, Middle East Israel’s Imagined Role in the Syrian Civil War Tha‘er al-Nashef and Ofir Winter Despite its policy of non-intervention in the Syrian civil war, Israel, in contradictory and competing conspiracy theories rampant in Syrian political discourse, is presented as commanding a central role in the outbreak of the crisis, the course of its events, and its prolonged duration. This essay presents the popular conspiracy theories about Israel concocted by both the Assad regime and the opposition forces, analyzes their various political functions, and examines their ramifications. The damage they do is twofold: on the one hand, they twist the Syrians’ perception of reality and impair their practical ability to cope with the crisis in their country; on the other hand, they make it difficult for Israel to take advantage of opportunities to strengthen ties with Syrian actors with whom Israel has common interests. The authors – a Syrian and an Israeli – propose some steps to help Syrians and Israelis challenge the conspiracy-based mindset and replace it with a new balanced and constructive perception of reality based on knowledge, dialogue, and encounter. Keywords: Syria, Israel, Arab Spring, conspiracy theories, Assad regime, Islamic State Strategic Assessment | Volume 19 | No. 2 | July 2016 3 ABSTRACTS 4 Will Russia and Iran Walk Hand in Hand? Ephraim Kam Since 2012 there has been a significant improvement in Russia-Iran relations, evidenced by meetings between senior figures, joint military activities in Syria, and plans for a substantive expansion of connections, including in weapons supply, nuclear facilities, and economic ties. This improvement reflects shared Russian and Iranian interests and the countries’ need for one another. However, their shared interests have not yet led to an alliance, and | Volume 19 | No. 2 | July 2016 19 | No. Volume | their relations are marked by disagreements and distrust, resulting from their respective goals and global and regional considerations. For Israel, the warming of Russia-Iran relations has negative implications: Russia is willing to provide high quality weapons to Iran, some of which may reach Hezbollah; both countries will work to weaken American influence in the Strategic Assessment Strategic region; Iran is expected to strengthen its regional standing; and Iran may receive Russian help with nuclear matters. At the same time, there may be positive aspects for Israel: the improvement in relations could help stabilize the situation in Syria and weaken the jihadist organizations, and may enable Russia to serve as a moderating influence on Iran in the future. Keywords: Russia, Iran, Syrian civil war, arms supply to Iran Changes in Hezbollah’s Identity and Fundamental Worldview Roman Levi At every point that it has faced a major crossroads, Hezbollah has chosen to close ranks with the Lebanese state. This process has consistently obligated the organization to temper the influence of the Islamic-Shiite agenda on its decision making, and encourage it to take instrumental, utilitarian, and calculated action to achieve its goals. In this way, Hezbollah has gradually consolidated its grip on the elements of internal power in Lebanon through the political system by means of rapid military and economic buildup. The switch to activity of a state-like character required a more responsible policy on the part of Hezbollah, due to the range of new considerations in its decision making process. In addition, Hezbollah was required to adapt quickly to new situations and exhibit flexibility in face of pressures leveled on it. Understanding how the organization has integrated into Lebanon is important for the overall understanding of Hezbollah’s operations and an assessment of how this may alter the organization’s future strategy. Keywords: Hezbollah, Lebanon, Israel, Syria, Iran ABSTRACTS 5 No Magic Solution: The Effectiveness of Deporting Terrorists as a Counterterrorism Policy Measure Adam Hoffman Since the outbreak of the recent wave of Palestinian terrorism in Israel, several proposals have urged the government to deport terrorists and their families to the Gaza Strip. These proposals are not new, and the idea of deporting terrorists is not unique to Israel. Deportation of terrorists is regarded as a solution that distances the threat, thereby reducing the | Volume 19 | No. 2 | July 2016 19 | No. Volume | likelihood of terrorist attacks; damages the organizational infrastructure of the terrorist organizations; and deters others from committing terrorist acts. Past cases, however, show that in the long term, deporting terrorists is liable to have negative consequences and encourage terrorism – instead of reducing it. This article examines the impact of the expulsion of terrorists Strategic Assessment Strategic in two cases: the deportation of senior Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives to southern Lebanon in 1992, and the political exile of senior al-Qaeda leaders in the 1980s and 1990s. In light of these precedents, this article recommends against the deportation of terrorists, or calls on policymakers at least to take the negative consequences of this measure into account when considering this measure. Keywords: deportation of terrorists, counterterrorism, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, al-Qaeda A Troubling Correlation: The Ongoing Economic Deterioration in East Jerusalem and the Current Wave of Terror Amit Efrati This
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