Enhancing National Capacity for Agricultural Growth and Transformation TERMINAL EVALUATION REPORT 2 September 2016 Team leader………………………………………………………………………………………Richard M Chiwara National consultant………………………..………………………………………………….Abera Gayesa i A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Despite its efforts to achieve food security through improving agricultural production and productivity, Ethiopia continued to face challenges in a context where agriculture is dependent on rainfall with increasing frequency of droughts. In this context, the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) requested its development partners to strengthen support for agricultural growth, including allocation of additional resources. In collaboration with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) and Government of Canada’s Department for Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development (DFATD), now renamed Global Affairs Canada (GAC), UNDP developed the project ‘enhancing national capacity for agricultural growth and transformation’. In accordance with its corporate guidelines, which require the terminal evaluation of its projects in the final year of implementation, UNDP commissioned the evaluation of the project “Enhancing national capacity for agricultural growth and transformation’. The objectives of the evaluation were to (a) assess the project’s achievements from its initial period in 2009 to date, and (b) to generate lessons learnt and make recommendations to inform future decision-making about the project. The evaluation was undertaken by a team of two independent consulting comprising one international team leader and national consultant. The evaluation timeframe was for a period of 60 working days from 13 June 2016 to 2 September 2016 covering the project’s implementation from 2009 to July 2016. A total of 82 individual representing the key stakeholders, including government officials, ATA senior management and staff, project funding partners were interviewed. The evaluation also visited 13 woredas selected from the total 83 covered by the project in the four target regions – Amhara, Oromia, Southern Nations, Nationalities and People (SNNP) and Tigray. The project was implemented in two phases. The initial phase covered the period from October 2009 – December 2011 with a total planned budget of US$ 10,284,840 to deliver the following planned outputs: . Develop policy and investment framework for agricultural growth . Develop comprehensive agricultural growth programme (AGP) document . Strengthen capacity of Ministry of Agriculture and its decentralised structures . Implement and upscale innovative interventions with high potential for agricultural growth In March 2011, the GoE established the Agricultural Transformation Council chaired by the Prime Minister and decided to establish the Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA) under the restructured Ministry of Agriculture with a specific mandate to ‘improve the livelihoods of smallholder farmers by fostering greater productivity and ii production, reducing food insecurity and accelerating growth and transformation of the Ethiopian economy’. UNDP responded to these developments by extending its project for a further five years to December 2015. The revised project added 12 additional outputs. Major findings 1. The overall project objective of ‘enhancing national capacity for agricultural growth and transformation’ has been achieved. In September 2010, the GoE approved the agriculture sector policy and investment framework. The establishment of the ATA in March 2011 marked a key milestone in Ethiopia’s agricultural transformation agenda. Through a number of flagship programmes, there are visible signs of agricultural transformation, including improved agronomic practices based on scientific soil analysis and use of appropriate fertilisers, improved seed varieties and effective extension system. 2. The project was aligned with national agricultural policies and addressed the needs of targeted smallholder farmers. The government’s Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP I) 2011 – 2015 gave priority to the smallholder farmers’ sector as the main source for agricultural growth and transformation. By improving their agronomic practices, over 2 million small holder farmers adopted the innovative package for tef production through the Tef, Improved seed Reduced seed rate, Row planting (TIRR) initiative and recorded a 38 percent increase in yield in the 2014/15 season. 3. The objectives of the initial phase (2009 – 2011) were successfully accomplished. 4. AGP implementation capacity was enhanced at all levels. Outputs 3 and 4 under the initial phase were shifted and expanded into 12 additional outputs in the second phase. A total of 1,344 Development Agents (DAs) and 15 agricultural extension experts were trained and deployed to the four target regions, and observed evidence suggests that they were effectively leading transformational initiatives, including large scale demonstrations and support to Farmer Training Centers (FTCs) located established at kebele level. Over 2,000 improved agricultural machinery and technologies were produced and distributed to smallholder farmers, including a pilot tef row planter designed and manufactured in Ethiopia. 5. While some interventions were still in pilot phase, there was satisfactory progress towards the revised outputs 2011 – 2015. a) Under the seed sector, four new policies, strategies and regulations were developed and implemented, including piloting of innovative concepts and approaches such as community-based seed production (CBSP) and direct seed marketing. b) Considerable progress was achieved under the cooperatives sector, including development of cooperatives certification programme and audit system. There was also improved cooperatives storage capacity with pilots undertaken iii to demonstrate quality storage infrastructure for Cooperative Unions (CUs) and Primary Cooperatives (PCs). c) An input voucher system (IVS) was established to improve smallholder farmers’ access to fertilisers. 1.9 million farmers had access to fertiliser using the IVS system by July 2015. At the time of evaluation, the system was being upgraded through pilot of e-voucher system to leverage technology efficiency for distribution of inputs. d) Some innovative approaches were developed for output marketing, including contract farming whereby cooperatives were linked with output markets such as malt factories. The commission-based output marketing was also piloted but had experienced slow uptake among cooperative members. e) Large scale demonstrations were undertaken and the evaluation observed a 70% uptake rate among smallholder farmers, as well as improved yields ranging from 20 – 35 percent for wheat and maize respectively. f) ATA undertook a value-chain analysis and assessment to identify high-value investment opportunities. While there was no financial closure achieved by the time of the evaluation, there were a few promising investments of up $200 million. 6. Project resources were used for activities with high potential for contributing to overall objectives. The project partnership established a pooled fund under UNDP’s management for pass through to ATA. Both BMGF and GAC awarded, sub-grant to UNDP for specified purpose – in the case of BMGF for ATA’s initial setup and institutional capacity development; and for GAC, to support specific outputs under the UNDP project. This arrangement worked well for all partners, with ATA noting that it gave them sufficient flexibility to implement its work programme according to its design while UNDP ensured accountability to partners. 7. The project’s sustainability was integrated in its design and implementation model. ATA’s programme approach ensured national ownership and leadership by engaging national institutions at all levels, while also in the broader sense of sustainable development, the integration of gender equality, environment and climate ensured that ‘no one is left behind’. 8. On crosscutting issues, some progress was achieved on mainstreaming gender equality, including development of gender mainstreaming action plans for all the target regions. The evaluation observed however that there was limited awareness about gender at lower levels. With regards to environment and climate, the project had developed structured interventions, but there was slow progress on climate smart agriculture (CSA) and conservation agriculture. iv Good practices and lessons learned The ‘value-chain approach’ was a critical good practice which enabled the Government and ATA in particular to focus on comprehensive transformation, as opposed to addressing challenges in isolation. Stakeholders noted that ATA’s approach to identify systemic bottlenecks and develop holistic solutions was the major highlight for transformation. While ATA’s achievements cannot be attributed to the project alone, its catalytic role provides a strong case for claiming significant contribution. Some highlights of good practices include: o Establishment of Ethiopia Soil Information system (EthioSIS) - a first in Africa, almost 65% of the country’s agricultural land was sampled using remote sensing satellite technology, resulting in identification of appropriate fertilisers for each ecological zone. o Introduction of the TIRR package, which involved reducing the tef seeding rate by 90% using only 3-5 g of improved seed per hectare; but achieving over 70% increase in grain yield. o The input voucher system which resulted in over 1.9 million smallholder farmers accessing fertiliser inputs. The potential to include