Joint Government – Humanitarian Partners’ National Flood Contingency Plan 2019 kiremt Season Landslide in Silte Zone/Daloch June 18/2019 and Flood in Silte Zone Zone April 2019 July 4, 2019 Addis Ababa Table of Contents Page Acronyms 3 1. BACKGROUND --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------4 1.1 Introduction --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------4 1.2 Forecast for kiremt 2019------------------------------------------------------------------------4 1.3 Forecast for July 2019---------------------------------------------------------------------------4 2. ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE CONTINGENCY PLAN ----------------------------------------------5 2.1 Most-likely scenario ----------------------------------------------------------------------------5 2.2 Assumptions in at-risk regions ---------------------------------------------------------------6 3. PROPOSED INTERVENTION -----------------------------------------------------------------------8 3.1 Mitigation and Preparedness ------------------------------------------------------------------8 3.2 Sector-led contingency plans ------------------------------------------------------------------9 3.2.1 Search and rescue -----------------------------------------------------------9 3.2.2 Emergency shelter and NFI ------------------------------------------------------9 3.2.3 Agriculture -----------------------------------------------------------------------11 3.2.4 Food ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------12 3.2.5 Nutrition ----------------------------------------------------------------------------13 3.2.6 Water Sector -----------------------------------------------------------------------14 3.2.7 Health -------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------17 4. Implementation modalities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------19 4.1 Federal level ----------------------------------------------------------------------19 4.2 Regional level --------------------------------------------------------------------19 4.3 Community level -----------------------------------------------------------------19 5. Evaluation-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------19 Annexes Annex 1: Food requirement--------------------------------------------------------------------------------20 Annex 2: Nutrition requirement---------------------------------------------------------------------------31 2 | P a g e Acronyms ATF Agriculture Task Force AWD Acute Watery Diarrhea DRM Disaster Risk Management EOC Emergency Operation Centre EMWAT Emergency Water Kit EPRP Emergency Preparedness and Response Plan ES Emergency Shelter FDP Food Distribution Point FTF Flood Task Force HRP Humanitarian Response Plan ICP Incident Command Post IEC/BCC Information Education Communication/ Behavioral Change Communication JEOP Joint Emergency Operation Plan NDRMC National Disaster Risk Management Commission MoWIE Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity MT Metric Ton NFI Non-Food Item NGO Non-Governmental Organization NMA National Meteorology Agency RFTFs Regional Flood Task Forces SNNPR Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region WaSH Water, Sanitation and Hygiene WFP World Food Program 3 | P a g e 1. BACKGROUND 1.1. Introduction The multi-agency Flood Task Force (FTF) issued a Flood Alert in June 2019 based on the National Meteorology Agency (NMA) forecast for 2019 kiremt season to raise awareness of anticipated flood risk in western, central and south western parts of the country. According to the NDRMC Early Warning Monitoring information, during the months of May and June 2019, 38 woredas (in seven regions) were affected by flood forcing 42,306 families to displacement, significant number of livestock death, and property damage, i.e. crop, houses, schools and other vital infrastructure. There are also reports of significant damage such as destruction of 150 houses and other key infrastructures. In addition, there were reports of flooding which affected 13 schools in the above mentioned woredas. Afar and SNNPR were the most affected. The National Disaster Risk Management Commission (NDRMC)-led FTF prepared this flood Contingency Plan (CP) in order to mitigate the adverse impacts of current and anticipated floods. The Task Force will prepare flood response plan based on the information on the ground and NMA monthly forecast. The NMA forecast for 2019 kiremt which formed the basis for the development of the Alert and this CP, warns that Heavy rainfall leading to flood is anticipated in the western parts of Ethiopia including western Amhara, Gambella, Benishangul- Gumuz, most parts of SNNP, and western Oromia. This Contingency Plan is therefore provides flood-related requirements by sector for the kiremt (June to September 2019) period, including other mitigation and preparedness efforts. Tercile rainfall probability for kiremt season, 2019 1.2 Forecast for kiremt 2019 The NMA identified the year 1993 the best analogue year. The outlook indicates that the season (June to September 2019) will be characterized by the following phenomenon: Western parts of the country, i.e. Benishangul Gumuz, Gambella, Western Amhara, Western Oromia, and Western highlands of SNNPR anticipated to receive dominantly above normal rainfall Eastern and parts of Central Ethiopia, western Somali, and southern Oromia are expected to receive dominantly normal rainfall. Afar, most of Amhara, Northern parts of Somali and Tigray are expected to experience normal to below normal rainfall during the season. Occasionally, heavy rainfalls are likely to cause Flash and/or River floods in low laying areas 1.3 Forecast for July 2019 The month of July, is normally a period when the kiremt rains strengthen and expand to most meher- growing areas. The rains normally increase in intensity mainly in the western half of the country and in some places the heavy rain is leading to Flash flood and is accompanied by lighting and hailstorms. 4 | P a g e According to the NMA forecast for July 2019, normal to above-normal rainfall is expected in most parts of East and West Wollega, Jimma, Illubabor, all Shewa zones, East and West Hararghe, Arsi and Bale zones in Oromia; Gambella; North and South Wollo, North Shewa, East and West Gojjam, North and South Gonder, Awi and Bahir Dar Zuria zones in Amhara; Tigray; Benishangul Gumuz; Hadiya, Gurage, Keffa, Bench Maji, Wolayita, Sidama, Dawuro and Gamo Gofa zones in SNNP Regions and Addis Ababa. Whereas Jijiga and Siti zones in Somali; Hareri and Dire Dawa City Administration and some parts in Segen People and South Omo zones in SNNP regions will likely receive near normal rainfall during the month. The other parts of the country mostly remain dry during the month. 2. ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE CONTINGENCY PLAN Looking at the weather forecast for 2019 kiremt season and analyzing the preparedness and response capacity of the Regions, the following most-likely scenario was established. 2.1 Most-likely scenario This scenario is based on the following assumptions: Flooding will take place in most Flash and River flood prone areas of western Ethiopia including western Amhara, Gambella, Benishangul-Gumuz, most parts of SNNP and western and south western parts of Oromia. Some Flash and River flood prone areas in Eastern Amhara, Table 1: Estimated numbers of flood affected and Southern Tigray, areas along Awash River displaced people during kiremt 2019 in Afar, and Wabe Shebelle River in Somali were also considered as at risk due Region Affected Displaced to the occasionally anticipated heavy rainfall in the Regions and neighboring SNNP 385,469 96,367 upstream areas. Based on this scenario and Somali 342,901 85,725 the assumptions, it is estimated that some Amhara 261,609 65,402 1,336,355 people will be affected by River Oromia 226,990 56,748 and Flash floods during 2019 kiremt Afar 60,090 15,023 Gambella 22,996 5,749 season, of which, 335,814 people (25 per Tigray 11,700 2,925 cent of the total at risk population) across Dire Dawa 18,100 6,250 the country are likely to be displaced (see B/Gumuz 3,500 875 Table 1). The estimation was made based Harari 3,000 750 on the 2017 regional and national Flood Contingency Plan, the Regional Emergency Total 1,336,355 335,814 Preparedness and Response Plan (EPRPs), historical data and the 2019 kiremt season Flood Alert. The scenario and the associated numbers have been used by sector task forces and planners to develop simple and responsive sector contingency plans including food and non-food items such as emergency shelter, basic household items, medicines for human and livestock populations, seed , and water purification chemicals. 5 | P a g e 2.2 Assumptions in at-risk regions SNNPR: Most flood occurrences in the region are related to overflow of Rivers and the resultant burst of River banks following torrential rains. Floods and landslides in the region sometimes result in displacement, loss of property, depletion of natural resources and disruption of social services and damage to infrastructure. Considering anticipated excessive rain in the kiremt season, some 385,469 people are expected to be affected in the flood-prone areas including Nangatom, Selamago, Hamer, South Ari, North Ari, Benatsemay, Dasenech, Male in South Omo; Shashego, Mirab Badewacho Misrak Bedewacho Anlemo in Hadya zone; Kindo Didaye, Dugna Fango, Humbo, Damot Woydie, Kindo Koyisha,